Real Estate

Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

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  • Dec 4th, 2020 6:53 pm
Member
Jul 25, 2008
400 posts
274 upvotes
ottawa
Most big federal union contracts are expiring this year. There's a possibility of agreements being reached this spring, but then they enter election mode and I'm not sure they'll be approved until after the election.

If it happens in spring, a bunch of first time buyers will see their purchasing power increase. Interest rate stress should also be alleviated for existing public servant owners. If it's delayed, people at the top of their scale will be on a pay freeze, but then everyone gets lump sums whenever the contract eventually gets signed.

The annual rate increase is also important. Last contact was below inflation, all bargaining groups are pushing for catch-up. If the first agreement (usually PA group) gets anything over 3% a year, the Ottawa market probably looks very healthy.

I don't really see a strike risk at this point and odds still favour LPC majority of minority.
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3528 posts
2885 upvotes
danishh wrote: Most big federal union contracts are expiring this year. There's a possibility of agreements being reached this spring, but then they enter election mode and I'm not sure they'll be approved until after the election.

If it happens in spring, a bunch of first time buyers will see their purchasing power increase. Interest rate stress should also be alleviated for existing public servant owners. If it's delayed, people at the top of their scale will be on a pay freeze, but then everyone gets lump sums whenever the contract eventually gets signed.

The annual rate increase is also important. Last contact was below inflation, all bargaining groups are pushing for catch-up. If the first agreement (usually PA group) gets anything over 3% a year, the Ottawa market probably looks very healthy.

I don't really see a strike risk at this point and odds still favour LPC majority of minority.
As the employer offered 0.75% per year with what was effectively also a 2 year wage freeze, I don't think the bargaining groups can expect anything close to 3% a year. There are still hundreds of thousands of pay transactions affected by Phoenix and the pay problems are affecting some purchase decisions. And news of a Phoenix replacement has not improved public servants' confidence at all, with many rightfully skeptical of the future. The reality is you cannot spend it until you actually receive it, and I personally know public servant who have significantly changed their spending habits because of Phoenix.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
5724 posts
1783 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: As the employer offered 0.75% per year with what was effectively also a 2 year wage freeze, I don't think the bargaining groups can expect anything close to 3% a year. ...
I have to agree. As a federal employee, I'd love to get 3% increase but I think will likely be closer to 1% than 3%
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
2347 posts
1142 upvotes
Ottawa
cyberfreak123 wrote: Can anyone tells me if the oreb or the crea stats include new built houses sales? or they just show resale
Just resale. New home prices are a leading indicator on the way up.
Newbie
Jan 11, 2015
4 posts
Ottawa
Has anyone here know anything about Caivan Communities? How is their build quality? I was interested in their Orleans Village development.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2622 posts
789 upvotes
Adnanmh wrote: Has anyone here know anything about Caivan Communities? How is their build quality? I was interested in their Orleans Village development.
Caivan is a new builder in Ottawa, and I don't think they have delivered any homes yet. Though, I do noticed a lot of their sales centre staff previously worked at Glenview, so it is also possible that they used a lot of the same trades as Glenview does.
Newbie
Jan 11, 2015
4 posts
Ottawa
William W wrote: Caivan is a new builder in Ottawa, and I don't think they have delivered any homes yet. Though, I do noticed a lot of their sales centre staff previously worked at Glenview, so it is also possible that they used a lot of the same trades as Glenview does.
Thanks for your response. Is Glenview a good builder in terms of quality and delivery dates?
Sr. Member
May 23, 2017
846 posts
590 upvotes
Adnanmh wrote: Thanks for your response. Is Glenview a good builder in terms of quality and delivery dates?
I wouldn't call Glenview or Caivan a "high-end" builder by any means, and they are relatively new (especially Caivan, which AFAIK has no completed houses yet) so it's hard to find reviews for them. If you check out the buildinghomes forum, there was someone who posted a thread last year following the progress of their Glenview home in Kemptville. Overall it seemed like they were very satisfied with the home, especially their customer service (e.g. I think she didn't like the pattern or colour of granite countertop that was put in and Glenview switched it out for her after closing no questions asked).

Also it's hard to say whether you can really compare Caivan to Glenview, even though some of the same people are associated with both...after all, I think the guy who founded Caivan was a former Mattamy VP or something and you've probably read all the terrible Mattamy reviews. Probably doesn't mean too much this early on in the process, but so far, all my experiences with Caivan has been extremely pleasant--of course, it's still in the pre-closing phase so that doesn't mean too much, but out of the many sales offices we've dealt with, the Caivan reps were by far the most helpful and polite across the board. (In contrast, we dealt with some reps from Mattamy and Minto who were flat-out rude; and also reps from other builders who were pretty incompetent. IMO, that doesn't bode well for after-closing customer service if they can't even manage the sales part smoothly.)

Anyways, I think there are a few homes being finished soon by Caivan in their Richmond community (Fox Run) so hopefully someone will post a review about their experience sometime later this year. As I mentioned, I've found the people at the sales centres very friendly and willing to answer questions, so it's worth a shot just calling them up and asking them whether there have been any delays so far on their homes. Overall, for new build houses I feel like a delay of at least a few months is pretty much expected though--so if an accurate delivery date is absolutely crucial for you, you may be better off buying a resale house.

(Btw, if you do decide to buy from Caivan, PM me if you'd like a referral bonus.)
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3528 posts
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fogetmylogin wrote: Just resale. New home prices are a leading indicator on the way up.
CMHC has data on new builds. In Ottawa, for instance, we had 185 new starts in Jan '19 compared with 423 in Jan '18. We had 374 completions in Jan '19 compared to 531 in Jan '18. Average absorbed price for single detached units in Jan '19 was $587K compared to $558K in Jan '18. This compares to an average price of $432K for resale in Jan '19. Just keep in mind that the resale average price includes attached and detached units.

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh ... 5/3/Ottawa
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
2347 posts
1142 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: CMHC has data on new builds. In Ottawa, for instance, we had 185 new starts in Jan '19 compared with 423 in Jan '18. We had 374 completions in Jan '19 compared to 531 in Jan '18. Average absorbed price for single detached units in Jan '19 was $587K compared to $558K in Jan '18. This compares to an average price of $432K for resale in Jan '19. Just keep in mind that the resale average price includes attached and detached units.

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh ... 5/3/Ottawa
That is less increase than I would have expected though again lots of variables these averages don't always reflect.. Generally every new development the land is worse and worse. Further from Ottawa or further from the centre of the community's main street etc. There are also two largish developments in more central locations probably for the first time in many years. Greystone and Waterridge. Not a ton of SFHs in either development but those that there are probably break 7 figures.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
skeet50 wrote: CMHC has data on new builds. In Ottawa, for instance, we had 185 new starts in Jan '19 compared with 423 in Jan '18. We had 374 completions in Jan '19 compared to 531 in Jan '18. Average absorbed price for single detached units in Jan '19 was $587K compared to $558K in Jan '18. This compares to an average price of $432K for resale in Jan '19. Just keep in mind that the resale average price includes attached and detached units.

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh ... 5/3/Ottawa
The new built are further and further away from the centre. And yet they cost more. It's not good to be on the sidelines in the past 2 years.
I'd be curious about the increase for townhouses. From what I read in this forum, it should be a lot more than the 5.3%. If it wasn't of the stress test, we'd see bigger increase in the new detached houses.
Last edited by cyberfreak123 on Feb 11th, 2019 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3528 posts
2885 upvotes
fogetmylogin wrote: That is less increase than I would have expected though again lots of variables these averages don't always reflect.. Generally every new development the land is worse and worse. Further from Ottawa or further from the centre of the community's main street etc. There are also two largish developments in more central locations probably for the first time in many years. Greystone and Waterridge. Not a ton of SFHs in either development but those that there are probably break 7 figures.
One thing to remember about new builds is the absorbed price now is the price paid when the buyers first signed the purchase agreement. This is typically one to two years previously. It is not reflective of the prices people are paying to enter into purchase agreements today.

Communities like Greystone and Waterridge are commanding higher prices, but they take longer to sell and most likely have minimal affect on overall averages. Minto and Mattamy are the largest builders and are selling many homes now on 30' lots at a lower price point. Richcraft, for instance, is now selling PH3 of TrailsEdge in Orleans and its lots are 31' & 35'.

For me, what is most interesting is the gap that exists between resale and new home prices. It is something that I think that new home buyers should consider as when the new home buyers decides to one day sell their home, they are now competing in the resale market where the average price and demand is significantly less than that for the new build market.
Newbie
May 30, 2016
54 posts
7 upvotes
skeet50 wrote: ...
It is something that I think that new home buyers should consider as when the new home buyers decides to one day sell their home, they are now competing in the resale market where the average price and demand is significantly less than that for the new build market.
Maybe not in the present market.

In fall 2017, I started to look at resale houses around 400K. All the ones I could find around Barrhaven were old and needed a lot of love! I calculated I had to add at least 25K to replace some windows, shingles, garage door etc..)  and a bit more for floors, Kitchen cabinet and counter, paint ...etc....

Mattamy and Minto were offering new detached houses starting from 400K. After a few "necessary" upgrades, it ends up around 415-425K for a turnkey house. There are still some disadvantages like:
  • Takes at least a year to get delivered
  • Small land
  • Mutliple apointments...could be stressful for some but some people like me love it.

But if you can deal with these...It seems a better choice at the end
Deal Addict
Nov 11, 2004
3163 posts
331 upvotes
Ottawa
Dont you need to pay tax on a new build aswell?
Hello
Jr. Member
Jun 11, 2013
133 posts
70 upvotes
Toronto
Not if its going to be your primary residence

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