Real Estate

Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

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  • Dec 1st, 2020 3:51 pm
Member
Jul 25, 2008
400 posts
274 upvotes
ottawa
OREB numbers came out last week, realtors tend to throw that out on personal distribution lists/blogs/articles shortly thereafter (i got mine today too).

This is how the OREB (and every REB) works. OREB gets the data and spins the numbers, then realtors spin it more, then the public gets the best version of the facts to boost demand and convince them home prices are rising (or not falling as badly, or about to recover, whatever the economic scenario is).

We need better, transparent data, controlled and released by someone without a conflict of interest.
Member
Nov 10, 2014
335 posts
405 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
Weird question, but please bear with me.

What areas/ neighbourhoods in Ottawa are over represented with Asian buyers? Its no secret that Asians (specifically Chinese) have an out-sized influence in driving home prices in Canada. Consequently, neighbourhoods that attract more Chinese buyers should outperform other neighbourhoods.

I tend to see many Asians in Kanata and Barrhaven area. Are there any other pockets of Ottawa where Asians cluster? Do areas like Kanata and Barrhaven have the potential to become the new Markham and Richmond Hill or is that phenomenon exclusive to the GTA?
Newbie
Mar 3, 2011
41 posts
12 upvotes
Ottawa
Tadalafil wrote: Weird question, but please bear with me.

What areas/ neighbourhoods in Ottawa are over represented with Asian buyers? Its no secret that Asians (specifically Chinese) have an out-sized influence in driving home prices in Canada. Consequently, neighbourhoods that attract more Chinese buyers should outperform other neighbourhoods.

I tend to see many Asians in Kanata and Barrhaven area. Are there any other pockets of Ottawa where Asians cluster? Do areas like Kanata and Barrhaven have the potential to become the new Markham and Richmond Hill or is that phenomenon exclusive to the GTA?
For me I always see Barrhaven with a cluster of asians. And I just don’t mean Chinese/oriental but south/Indians asians as well. All the grocery is nearby (TNT as wel) but overall not too sure why.

I don’t think it’ll ever be like markham or Richmond hill though. I don’t think Ottawa is big enough.
Sr. Member
Oct 2, 2017
702 posts
489 upvotes
Almost every house that's going up in Ottawa is using Sellers Direction. That shows you how hot the market is in Ottawa. They are being sold for above asking guaranteed
I'll see you at the top, cause the bottom is too crowded
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3526 posts
2882 upvotes
azmongold wrote: Almost every house that's going up in Ottawa is using Sellers Direction. That shows you how hot the market is in Ottawa. They are being sold for above asking guaranteed
Doesn't show me anything. The process used to list the house does not indicate to me whether or not the market is hot. Being sold over asking isn't an indication either as all you have to do is list below market value and you are almost certain to get sold above asking.

A hot market to me is based on results. Are prices significantly higher than normal. The historical yearly price increase in Ottawa is currently about 5.74%. A hot market for me would have yearly price increases that significantly pass 5.74%. Last year's price gains didn't even meet the 5.74%, so below average year. As a homeowner, I am hopeful that this year's gains will surpass last year's. We need above average gains just to make up for ground we lost since 2011.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
5715 posts
1771 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: Doesn't show me anything. The process used to list the house does not indicate to me whether or not the market is hot. Being sold over asking isn't an indication either as all you have to do is list below market value and you are almost certain to get sold above asking.

A hot market to me is based on results. Are prices significantly higher than normal. The historical yearly price increase in Ottawa is currently about 5.74%. A hot market for me would have yearly price increases that significantly pass 5.74%. Last year's price gains didn't even meet the 5.74%, so below average year. As a homeowner, I am hopeful that this year's gains will surpass last year's. We need above average gains just to make up for ground we lost since 2011.
I do think you're right to say that properties selling above asking price isn't actually a sign of a strong market and agree with you that ultimately, price increase between comparable homes is what dictates the strength of the market.

That said, it does look pretty strong. Looking at the past 100 sales in Ottawa (includes rural), which was over the past couple of weeks, almost 80% of them did sell at or above list price (which again is debatable as an indicator) and all but 1 of them sold in 13 days or less of being on the market. I have to admit that I hadn't realized it was "looking" that strong.
Member
Aug 16, 2011
362 posts
228 upvotes
OTTAWA
michelb wrote: I do think you're right to say that properties selling above asking price isn't actually a sign of a strong market and agree with you that ultimately, price increase between comparable homes is what dictates the strength of the market.

That said, it does look pretty strong. Looking at the past 100 sales in Ottawa (includes rural), which was over the past couple of weeks, almost 80% of them did sell at or above list price (which again is debatable as an indicator) and all but 1 of them sold in 13 days or less of being on the market. I have to admit that I hadn't realized it was "looking" that strong.
5.74% is mediocre i would say... but historically on par in Ottawa... try 20-30% in Vancouver in 2016-2017, 30-40% in certain cities in China... that's why i love Ottawa.. slow and steady.. there's no FOMO and crazy money going in here... YET!
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
Jeremyl007 wrote: 5.74% is mediocre i would say... but historically on par in Ottawa... try 20-30% in Vancouver in 2016-2017, 30-40% in certain cities in China... that's why i love Ottawa.. slow and steady.. there's no FOMO and crazy money going in here... YET!
Consistent healthy increase is very good IMO. There's no market bubble, for whoever is afraid of that. Ottawa is still a reasonable place to buy and invest. If one counts the leverage, that 5% increase is translated in much higher return. Ottawa will never see those crazy increase until there's a serious shortage of lands to build.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
skeet50 wrote: Doesn't show me anything. The process used to list the house does not indicate to me whether or not the market is hot. Being sold over asking isn't an indication either as all you have to do is list below market value and you are almost certain to get sold above asking.

A hot market to me is based on results. Are prices significantly higher than normal. The historical yearly price increase in Ottawa is currently about 5.74%. A hot market for me would have yearly price increases that significantly pass 5.74%. Last year's price gains didn't even meet the 5.74%, so below average year. As a homeowner, I am hopeful that this year's gains will surpass last year's. We need above average gains just to make up for ground we lost since 2011.
Pricing a house slightly below price market price is a strategy to create a bidding war, and the strategy only works well in a hot market, where there're more demands than the supply available. Sometimes the bidding pushes the sold price above the seller's target price.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote: Weird question, but please bear with me.

What areas/ neighbourhoods in Ottawa are over represented with Asian buyers? Its no secret that Asians (specifically Chinese) have an out-sized influence in driving home prices in Canada. Consequently, neighbourhoods that attract more Chinese buyers should outperform other neighbourhoods.

I tend to see many Asians in Kanata and Barrhaven area. Are there any other pockets of Ottawa where Asians cluster? Do areas like Kanata and Barrhaven have the potential to become the new Markham and Richmond Hill or is that phenomenon exclusive to the GTA?
Almost all the Asians I know live in those 2 areas. and Chinatown. and Bayshore area. Mostly all in the West end. I have yet to meet an Asian family living in Westboro ,Glebe or Alta Vista.
Member
Nov 10, 2014
335 posts
405 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
michelb wrote: I do think you're right to say that properties selling above asking price isn't actually a sign of a strong market and agree with you that ultimately, price increase between comparable homes is what dictates the strength of the market.

That said, it does look pretty strong. Looking at the past 100 sales in Ottawa (includes rural), which was over the past couple of weeks, almost 80% of them did sell at or above list price (which again is debatable as an indicator) and all but 1 of them sold in 13 days or less of being on the market. I have to admit that I hadn't realized it was "looking" that strong.
Are you a realtor? Are the sales data for Ottawa available to the general public?
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3526 posts
2882 upvotes
michelb wrote: I do think you're right to say that properties selling above asking price isn't actually a sign of a strong market and agree with you that ultimately, price increase between comparable homes is what dictates the strength of the market.

That said, it does look pretty strong. Looking at the past 100 sales in Ottawa (includes rural), which was over the past couple of weeks, almost 80% of them did sell at or above list price (which again is debatable as an indicator) and all but 1 of them sold in 13 days or less of being on the market. I have to admit that I hadn't realized it was "looking" that strong.
It isn't a sign of a hot market if it isn't pushing prices upward. Look at Jan's stats. Sales were up 16% from last Jan, but prices were up only an average of 1.5%. That would not define a hot market in my mind.

If you look at the historical numbers, up until 2012 we were enjoying average annual price increases of about 6.2%. It's the recent prolonged slow down that has dragged that number down to 5.74%. Sales numbers now are showing that there is some pent up demand, most likely as a result of the past 5 slow years, that is being met. But, it doesn't look like yet we are even back to normal, let alone exceeding it (with price increases exceeding 6.2% annually).

I just think that whenever I read comments on "hot" real estate market it seems that sometimes people have forgotten what the normal or average real estate market is in Ottawa. Is an average market a strong market? Well, we can argue adjectives back and forth, yet, imo, an average market is an average market. And, in Ottawa, at least, we are not there yet.

BTW: I am a homeowner and would love to see stronger house prices. I am cautiously optimistic. But I will tell you this, I would relish on the market numbers proving me wrong. :-)
Member
Jun 11, 2006
421 posts
405 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote: Weird question, but please bear with me.

What areas/ neighbourhoods in Ottawa are over represented with Asian buyers? Its no secret that Asians (specifically Chinese) have an out-sized influence in driving home prices in Canada. Consequently, neighbourhoods that attract more Chinese buyers should outperform other neighbourhoods.

I tend to see many Asians in Kanata and Barrhaven area. Are there any other pockets of Ottawa where Asians cluster? Do areas like Kanata and Barrhaven have the potential to become the new Markham and Richmond Hill or is that phenomenon exclusive to the GTA?
Culturally, Asians (especially among newer immigrants) seem to much prefer new homes ever resale, which by default will likely push them to Kanata or Barrhaven. Also, schools seem particularly important. One of my neighbors (Kanata) changed (elementary) schools for her daughter because she felt the other students weren't "driven/motivated" enough (those weren't her exact words, but I think that was the gist of it). While I don't think most are that extreme, school rankings do seem to be important. I know a few who specifically want to be in the Earl of March boundaries.
Sr. Member
Oct 2, 2017
702 posts
489 upvotes
skeet50 wrote: It isn't a sign of a hot market if it isn't pushing prices upward. Look at Jan's stats. Sales were up 16% from last Jan, but prices were up only an average of 1.5%. That would not define a hot market in my mind.

If you look at the historical numbers, up until 2012 we were enjoying average annual price increases of about 6.2%. It's the recent prolonged slow down that has dragged that number down to 5.74%. Sales numbers now are showing that there is some pent up demand, most likely as a result of the past 5 slow years, that is being met. But, it doesn't look like yet we are even back to normal, let alone exceeding it (with price increases exceeding 6.2% annually).

I just think that whenever I read comments on "hot" real estate market it seems that sometimes people have forgotten what the normal or average real estate market is in Ottawa. Is an average market a strong market? Well, we can argue adjectives back and forth, yet, imo, an average market is an average market. And, in Ottawa, at least, we are not there yet.

BTW: I am a homeowner and would love to see stronger house prices. I am cautiously optimistic. But I will tell you this, I would relish on the market numbers proving me wrong. :-)
Hot is relative term obviously, it's hot compared to right now compared to previous performance of sales in Ottawa (not Toronto or Vancouver). You're also quoting historical data, which accurate lags behind what is happening now. The funny thing is most home owners in Ottawa don't even realize the value of their property, those that are listing are the ones cashing it in it.. who knows how long. Maybe it will fall a bit when supply increases. Speaking as someone looking to buy right now, properties are going from active to conditional in about 2 weeks. "Oh that looks interesting" quickly turns to "it's sold".
I'll see you at the top, cause the bottom is too crowded
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2620 posts
781 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote: Weird question, but please bear with me.

What areas/ neighbourhoods in Ottawa are over represented with Asian buyers? Its no secret that Asians (specifically Chinese) have an out-sized influence in driving home prices in Canada. Consequently, neighbourhoods that attract more Chinese buyers should outperform other neighbourhoods.

I tend to see many Asians in Kanata and Barrhaven area. Are there any other pockets of Ottawa where Asians cluster? Do areas like Kanata and Barrhaven have the potential to become the new Markham and Richmond Hill or is that phenomenon exclusive to the GTA?
I think the Chinese buyers here are very different than the ones in Vancouver or Toronto. The ones in Ottawa tends to be highly educated but working. Whereas the ones in Vancouver and Toronto that were driving the housing market brought money here and doesn't need to work. Thus, in Toronto and Vancouver, during weekdays lunch and dinner hours, you will see the Chinese restaurant, especially the higher end ones, overfill with customers, whereas
most of the "authentic" Chinese restaurant in Ottawa struggle to stay in business because business tends to be slow during the weekdays.

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