Real Estate

Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

  • Last Updated:
  • Nov 26th, 2020 2:03 am
Member
Jun 15, 2009
361 posts
75 upvotes
Nepean
As an investor, If not now, then what would be the timing? Assuming Conservative comes into power, are we going to abandon Real Estate investment for next 4 years? I think if you are a long term investor and happy with your purchase, and willing to hold for 5+ years, then change of government probably should not matter. Unless, change of government spending cuts brings the home prices down by more than 10%.
William W wrote: I am sure if the election were held today or next week, the Liberal chance of getting re-elected is not that high. However, voters tend to have short memories and a lot of things can happen between now and the election. Who knows if the Liberal decides to ditch Trudeau and decide to go with someone like Chrystia Freeland, it will be a totally different race.

Nevertheless, if the worst case scenario happens for Ottawa RE and it turns out the Conservative forms government, their budget will be tabled in February or March 2020. It will take departments 6 to 9 months before they complete a review exercise. This will take us to early 2021 before we see "Affected Letters" being issued. And looking back at old post when this thread was started, I would think it will be the latter part of 2021 or 2022 before things stagnated again. I think how Quebecer react to this is key. It can be spin as Trudeau was trying to save jobs in Quebec and they continue to support the Liberals. On the other hand the scandal that brought down the previous Liberal government also benefited Quebec, yet people there punished them in the polls. So it is really hard to say how that province will vote. One thing for sure, no party will be able to form a majority government without winning seats in that province. Based on the by election results this week, it certainly doesn't look like they have warmed to Singh or Sheer.

All to say, if I am an investor or speculator I will think twice before I sign anything with the builders. But if I were planning to move in and I need a brand new home, i don't think I will worry too much about what happens with this election as I don't think people should try to time the market when they plan to live in it themselves especially in a slow but steady market like Ottawa.
Member
Jun 15, 2009
361 posts
75 upvotes
Nepean
On another note, if you are looking to invest in towns, what would be your preferred area. I am debating between Findlay Creek or Kanata South (EdenWylde). Any other choice?

Though, I don't seem to like the EdenWylde area as it is seems no where near to DND or High Tech, but there are not many options left except Mattamy in Fairwinds and Blackstone south, but their homes seems expensive comparatively with other builders in EdenWylde.

Resells are going crazy, and hard to find value in the prices being asked. Put an offer on a town in Barrhaven, 1700 Sq feet, 15 years old town, went 26 over asking with no condition. Though, I won't say it is very high based on what I have seen others town selling in some pockets of Barrhaven. Similar resell prices can fetch a new turnkey home with much better spec, floor plan and appliances in FC/Kanata South - minus the location.
Sr. Member
Aug 14, 2007
520 posts
275 upvotes
Ottawa
ghasita wrote: On another note, if you are looking to invest in towns, what would be your preferred area. I am debating between Findlay Creek or Kanata South (EdenWylde). Any other choice?

Though, I don't seem to like the EdenWylde area as it is seems no where near to DND or High Tech, but there are not many options left except Mattamy in Fairwinds and Blackstone south, but their homes seems expensive comparatively with other builders in EdenWylde.

Resells are going crazy, and hard to find value in the prices being asked. Put an offer on a town in Barrhaven, 1700 Sq feet, 15 years old town, went 26 over asking with no condition. Though, I won't say it is very high based on what I have seen others town selling in some pockets of Barrhaven. Similar resell prices can fetch a new turnkey home with much better spec, floor plan and appliances in FC/Kanata South - minus the location.
I have put deposit for TW in EdenWylde, but I back out after a week, it is because there are overhead power line and cell phone signal tower in that location. I do understand that some people don't really care about them (that is why some lots are already sold), however, please google it and see how the overhead power line and cell phone signal tower impact the price of property. In the seller market, everything can be sold quickly, buyer is less picky. On the other hand, it is not easy to sell the property next to the power line in the buyer market. As an investor, my rule #1 is to buy something that you can easy to resell, what you like is not important, it is more important to buy what the "market" like.
Last edited by audiorichard on Feb 28th, 2019 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
2342 posts
1137 upvotes
Ottawa
William W wrote: I am sure if the election were held today or next week, the Liberal chance of getting re-elected is not that high. However, voters tend to have short memories and a lot of things can happen between now and the election. Who knows if the Liberal decides to ditch Trudeau and decide to go with someone like Chrystia Freeland, it will be a totally different race.

Nevertheless, if the worst case scenario happens for Ottawa RE and it turns out the Conservative forms government, their budget will be tabled in February or March 2020. It will take departments 6 to 9 months before they complete a review exercise. This will take us to early 2021 before we see "Affected Letters" being issued. And looking back at old post when this thread was started, I would think it will be the latter part of 2021 or 2022 before things stagnated again. I think how Quebecer react to this is key. It can be spin as Trudeau was trying to save jobs in Quebec and they continue to support the Liberals. On the other hand the scandal that brought down the previous Liberal government also benefited Quebec, yet people there punished them in the polls. So it is really hard to say how that province will vote. One thing for sure, no party will be able to form a majority government without winning seats in that province. Based on the by election results this week, it certainly doesn't look like they have warmed to Singh or Sheer.

All to say, if I am an investor or speculator I will think twice before I sign anything with the builders. But if I were planning to move in and I need a brand new home, i don't think I will worry too much about what happens with this election as I don't think people should try to time the market when they plan to live in it themselves especially in a slow but steady market like Ottawa.
I agree with most of your analysis. A couple of caveats. If you need to sell this year maybe do it earlier in the year. August and September might be weak if it looks like a new government is even possible as we head into the election. Uncertainty freezes the market in Ottawa. While nobody will lose their jobs the people on the fence about buying so especially entry level places will find fewer buyers. A small change in demand and no change in supply can dramatically alter the market. If this does happen and especially if another LIb majority is elected 2020 spring could be very strong again.

Actually the odds are still against a new government. The Quebec numbers make it really tough for anyone else to win. If the big Conservative guns hadn't passed on the leadership or even if Bernier had won maybe it would be closer but once the spotlight hits Scheer hard to see him making a big enough impact in Quebec and Toronto suburbs that will decide the election.

Of course all speculative and if you are talking about your Primary residence best to avoid most of this day to day fluctuation.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
audiorichard wrote: I have put deposit for TW in EdenWylde, but I back out after a week, it is because there are overhead power line and cell phone signal tower in that location. I do understand that some people don't really care about them (that is why some lots are already sold), however, please google it and see how the overhead power line and cell phone signal tower impact the price of property. In the seller market, everything can be sold quickly, buyer is less picky. On the other hand, it is not easy to sell the property next to the power line in the buyer market. As an investor, my rule #1 is to buy something that you can easy to resell, what you like is not important, it is more important find what the "market" like.
I'd also avoid any major power line near my next property. Good luck to sell it in a slow market. I've seen houses sitting on the market for years because of that, but also it was in Gatineau, which is not really hot to start with.
Sr. Member
Oct 2, 2017
702 posts
489 upvotes
William W wrote: I am sure if the election were held today or next week, the Liberal chance of getting re-elected is not that high. However, voters tend to have short memories and a lot of things can happen between now and the election. Who knows if the Liberal decides to ditch Trudeau and decide to go with someone like Chrystia Freeland, it will be a totally different race.

Nevertheless, if the worst case scenario happens for Ottawa RE and it turns out the Conservative forms government, their budget will be tabled in February or March 2020. It will take departments 6 to 9 months before they complete a review exercise. This will take us to early 2021 before we see "Affected Letters" being issued. And looking back at old post when this thread was started, I would think it will be the latter part of 2021 or 2022 before things stagnated again. I think how Quebecer react to this is key. It can be spin as Trudeau was trying to save jobs in Quebec and they continue to support the Liberals. On the other hand the scandal that brought down the previous Liberal government also benefited Quebec, yet people there punished them in the polls. So it is really hard to say how that province will vote. One thing for sure, no party will be able to form a majority government without winning seats in that province. Based on the by election results this week, it certainly doesn't look like they have warmed to Singh or Sheer.

All to say, if I am an investor or speculator I will think twice before I sign anything with the builders. But if I were planning to move in and I need a brand new home, i don't think I will worry too much about what happens with this election as I don't think people should try to time the market when they plan to live in it themselves especially in a slow but steady market like Ottawa.
Chances are it will be a lib minority, don't think people are willing to risk another Doug F knee jerk voting scenario. As an investor you can almost guarantee the libs will be in power for a few years longer but don't expect those deficits to keep growing. They'll be checked.
I'll see you at the top, cause the bottom is too crowded
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
ghasita wrote: As an investor, If not now, then what would be the timing? Assuming Conservative comes into power, are we going to abandon Real Estate investment for next 4 years? I think if you are a long term investor and happy with your purchase, and willing to hold for 5+ years, then change of government probably should not matter. Unless, change of government spending cuts brings the home prices down by more than 10%.
Personally, all my investment are in for the long term (10 years or more). So I don't try to time the market. I ride through the down and up cycle. Whenever I have money and have room to get a new mortgage, I'll go hunting for a new property. I just look for a good location that my money/cashflow can afford and easy to rent. Property in a good location should be easy to rent no matter what governments do, although I'm aware that we're in a fed gov town. There're other secondary economic powerhouses in this town, like healthcare, education, high tech. Buy and sell transactions in real estate are so expensive, it's not worth to have a short term.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2609 posts
753 upvotes
ghasita wrote: As an investor, If not now, then what would be the timing? Assuming Conservative comes into power, are we going to abandon Real Estate investment for next 4 years? I think if you are a long term investor and happy with your purchase, and willing to hold for 5+ years, then change of government probably should not matter. Unless, change of government spending cuts brings the home prices down by more than 10%.
Personally, I am holding off until there are more clarity before the next election. After all, it is an investment so I don't necessarily need to buy, and right now, I feel the market has already priced in another Liberal government. What I am afraid of is placing the wrong bet. As an example, those who bought during first phase of Wateridge Village with Mattamy when they first released essentially took a $100k hair cut as compared to today's prices. Yes, I may be leaving money on the table as I may have to pay $10k more if I decide to buy later. But I would rather do that than to kick myself after for signing too early and missed out on incentives later offered by builders. Besides, at current level, it is not like a rental will be overly cash flow positive, so there is really little urgency to get in now as appreciation maybe limited in the next 5 years.
Newbie
Mar 3, 2011
41 posts
12 upvotes
Ottawa
Minto's Quinn's Pointe phase 2 opening this weekend. I wonder how QP is compared to Harmony/Riversbend in terms of location and if there will be a huge lineup similar to Harmony's opening last fall.

Intrigue to see the prices as well.

Could get a sneak preview of what the market could be come the spring/summer
Deal Addict
Jul 7, 2007
1088 posts
623 upvotes
cyberfreak123 wrote: Personally, all my investment are in for the long term (10 years or more). So I don't try to time the market. I ride through the down and up cycle. Whenever I have money and have room to get a new mortgage, I'll go hunting for a new property. I just look for a good location that my money/cashflow can afford and easy to rent. Property in a good location should be easy to rent no matter what governments do, although I'm aware that we're in a fed gov town. There're other secondary economic powerhouses in this town, like healthcare, education, high tech. Buy and sell transactions in real estate are so expensive, it's not worth to have a short term.
This x 10000000000.

RE is a long term (10+ years) investment. My favourite investment quote is "time in the market is better than timing the market", which is my philosophy when it comes to index etfs and high quality blue chip dividend yielding companies. Nothing to worry about if your time horizon is 10, 20, 30, or even 40+ years.

I would be surprised if there was a change of government next election, I'm pegging it as a low chance (maybe 20%). Even if the Conservatives form a minority, I do not see fed jobs being cut that quickly. The housing market may cool down, but I would be surprised if there was a decrease YoY. Just look at what happened last time the Conservatives cut fed jobs 2011-2015.
Year Price % change
2011 $343,284 4.9
2012 $351,792 2.3
2013 $357,348 1.6
2014 $361,707 1.2
2015 $367,632 1.7

Source: https://www.agentinottawa.com/stats/

Its just a personal belief that the federal conservatives (if elected) would govern more towards the center and won't cut that many fed jobs (maybe thats just wishful thinking haha!).
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3515 posts
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Zero Hope wrote: ....
I would be surprised if there was a change of government next election, I'm pegging it as a low chance (maybe 20%). Even if the Conservatives form a minority, I do not see fed jobs being cut that quickly. The housing market may cool down, but I would be surprised if there was a decrease YoY. Just look at what happened last time the Conservatives cut fed jobs 2011-2015.
Year Price % change
2011 $343,284 4.9
2012 $351,792 2.3
2013 $357,348 1.6
2014 $361,707 1.2
2015 $367,632 1.7

Source: https://www.agentinottawa.com/stats/

Its just a personal belief that the federal conservatives (if elected) would govern more towards the center and won't cut that many fed jobs (maybe thats just wishful thinking haha!).
Problem is that deficit spending can't continue and any gov't that attempts to reign in the deficit will do so by making program cuts which lead to job losses. The little bit of uptick that we have now in the Ottawa market is due to the Lib gov't and its program spending and its accompanying hiring spree.

It's also important that during the times noted above, lots of people lost money on their homes. Those are average returns, and when they are that low - it's an indication that people are losing. That's the funny thing about averages - for instance, two people can sell for a gain of 3 % each and a third sell for a 5% loss and you have an average gain of 1%. That 1% doesn't tell you anything about what actually happened.

I had a neighbour that moved into his new build in 2012 and was forced to sell in 2015. He lost big time. I know people who bought new builds during those years that 2 years after signing the agreements were worth $100,000 less than their purchase price.
Deal Addict
Jul 7, 2007
1088 posts
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skeet50 wrote:
I had a neighbour that moved into his new build in 2012 and was forced to sell in 2015. He lost big time. I know people who bought new builds during those years that 2 years after signing the agreements were worth $100,000 less than their purchase price.
Yeah theres no doubt that buying a new build and selling it 3 years later is risky. What area did your friend buy in?

I know in the kanata-stittsville area, during the years of 2012-2015, new build prices from builders (Cardel in Richardson Ridge, Mattamy in Fairwinds, and Cardel/Monarch in Blackstone) were raising their prices considerably year after year. My friend bought a smaller cardel house (cheasapeake 2000sq) in blackstone and signed 2013 and paid 390k before upgrades and in 2015 cardel was asking 460k for it and now its 530k base.

New build prices generally move in the same direction as resale prices. I saw some healthy new sale price increases between 2012 - 2015.
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Jan 15, 2017
3515 posts
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Zero Hope wrote: Yeah theres no doubt that buying a new build and selling it 3 years later is risky. What area did your friend buy in?

I know in the kanata-stittsville area, during the years of 2012-2015, new build prices from builders (Cardel in Richardson Ridge, Mattamy in Fairwinds, and Cardel/Monarch in Blackstone) were raising their prices considerably year after year. My friend bought a smaller cardel house (cheasapeake 2000sq) in blackstone and signed 2013 and paid 390k before upgrades and in 2015 cardel was asking 460k for it and now its 530k base.

New build prices generally move in the same direction as resale prices. I saw some healthy new sale price increases between 2012 - 2015.
The $100,000 loss was a detached in Central Park. The appraisal on closing came in that much lower. I know of many others throughout the city. I also know of people who walked away from closing on their new builds due to lower appraisals on closing.

The new build market is quite unique in that only builders sell new builds. Owners who buy them and then sell them are selling them as resales in the resale market. In your example, for instance, just because Cardel has the home listed at 530k doesn't mean that it is actually selling at that price point. It may not be selling at all. There is no way to know until a year or more in the future when the homes being sold today are actually built. Many times builders will price homes at a point that they no longer sell at all, but as long as other models are selling they don't change the prices. A builder's goal is to sell houses, not a particular model. All this is to say just because a builder has a model listed at $530k for base it doesn't mean that a resale of the same model can sell for at least $530k.
Deal Addict
Jul 7, 2007
1088 posts
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Fair point but I'm just saying that when builders are continously/consecutively raising prices every single year in the burbs its typically because resale houses are also going up in price as well. But I completely acknowledge that the area your friend bought in is more central (not Kanata, Barrhaven, Orleans) and the builder may have overpriced the house to start with.

I don't doubt that people have lost money over a 3 year span of buying a new build then selling it shortly after. That's completely normal but also a very short time period.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2011
590 posts
261 upvotes
Zero Hope wrote: Fair point but I'm just saying that when builders are continously/consecutively raising prices every single year in the burbs its typically because resale houses are also going up in price as well. But I completely acknowledge that the area your friend bought in is more central (not Kanata, Barrhaven, Orleans) and the builder may have overpriced the house to start with.

I don't doubt that people have lost money over a 3 year span of buying a new build then selling it shortly after. That's completely normal but also a very short time period.
I remember having seen a detached house for sale in Central Park for 380K back in Dec 2016. I called the agent to get more info. It was rented to Saudi students. Nowadays, it's pretty hard to find detached one below 400K in central area that looks decent.

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