Real Estate

Ottawa Real Estate market discussion

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  • Apr 24th, 2019 9:17 am
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Member
Aug 6, 2011
410 posts
135 upvotes
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,005 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 978 in February 2018, an increase of 2.8 per cent. February’s sales included 756 in the residential property class, a rise of 3.8 per cent from a year ago, and 249 in the condominium property class, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from February 2018. The five-year average for February sales is 949.

“February has been a strong month, and with year-to-date unit sales 8% higher in both the condo and residential categories, it is looking very favourable for the spring market,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2019 President, Dwight Delahunt.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in February in the Ottawa area was $466,540, an increase of 8.6 per cent over February 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $288,354, an increase of 5.6 per cent from this month last year.*


https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/february-b ... inventory/
Sr. Member
Jul 7, 2007
857 posts
350 upvotes
William W wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 8:03 am
That's true when you put things into perspective, revising the pay grid aside, the 1 to 2% raise doesn't really matter. What I'm afraid of is getting ZEROs from a Conservative government. After all, with the ballooning deficit, and the economy slowing down, I can see them coming after their favorite "Pinata".
JT campaigned on the idea of respecting the public service.... So far TB has only countered PSAC with a 0.75% increase and a 2 year wage freeze.... and the Libs still want to take away sick days.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2268 posts
344 upvotes
danishh wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 7:29 am
You seem to think the ministers do a lot on these files. That's just not how it works. Whether qualtrough is dealing with Phoenix or not isn't relevant, there are separate DMs and ADMs handling it.

My union had a whole week of meetings after Brison resigned. The entire proposal has been presented from both sides. (Pay + everything else). You can go to any of the big union websites for details.
Philpott resignation may slow down PS negotiations: union leaders
ttps://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/jane-philpott
Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) national president Chris Aylward said there are broader implications to Philpott’s resignation from cabinet, but there is a direct concern for PSAC members currently at the bargaining table with Treasury Board. In a statement, Aylward said he would be in touch with the government in the next few days to ensure negotiations “experience the least disruption possible” until a new minister is appointed.
PSAC is scheduled to return to the bargaining table with Treasury Board at the end of March, said Aylward, who said he had met with Philpott on several occasions.
Member
Jul 25, 2008
302 posts
173 upvotes
ottawa
yeah, i owe you an apology. I talked to my guy today. He said our pres had a good relationship with Brison, and instructions to DMs changed with Philpott.
This might effect timeline if directions change again. The personal relationships help even if the minister isnt directly involved in negotiations.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2268 posts
344 upvotes
Zero Hope wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 1:04 pm
JT campaigned on the idea of respecting the public service.... So far TB has only countered PSAC with a 0.75% increase and a 2 year wage freeze.... and the Libs still want to take away sick days.
We are getting off track and I will probably stop responding to this topic. But I want to share a couple of things I know.

The two year wage freeze is not exactly true. Yes, the employers came out to say they will not be offering retro pay, that is because Phoenix is not able to churn out a correct retro pay amount for those who have received a promotion, acting, or went on leave without pay. Instead, the employer is looking to use this threat as leverage to force the bargaining agents to accept a lump sum that will approximate the retro pay amount to the employees.

The short term disability in lieu of sick leave is supported by PIPSC and a couple of other unions. Yes, it will make it harder for those who has banked sick leave. But under the new system, there are certain circumstances where employees will receive essentially unlimited sick leave. Personally, I prefer the old system, but I can also see why some bargaining agents push for this because it benefits their younger members, or members who have ran out of sick leave because of long term health conditions. Unfortunately, it will also benefits the abusers who call in sick on Friday or Monday. But no system is perfect.
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
2096 posts
1459 upvotes
cyberfreak123 wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 11:20 am
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,005 residential properties in February through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 978 in February 2018, an increase of 2.8 per cent. February’s sales included 756 in the residential property class, a rise of 3.8 per cent from a year ago, and 249 in the condominium property class, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from February 2018. The five-year average for February sales is 949.

“February has been a strong month, and with year-to-date unit sales 8% higher in both the condo and residential categories, it is looking very favourable for the spring market,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board’s 2019 President, Dwight Delahunt.

The average sale price of a residential-class property sold in February in the Ottawa area was $466,540, an increase of 8.6 per cent over February 2018. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $288,354, an increase of 5.6 per cent from this month last year.*


https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/february-b ... inventory/
Finally starting to see some good numbers. The 8.6% increase is probably a reflection of the poor price increase in Jan. It is a step in the right direction.
Newbie
Nov 10, 2014
93 posts
57 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
After lagging behind TO and Van for like a decade, Ottawa RE prices finally seem to be picking up over the last couple of years.

Will Ottawa price growth taper as local affordability becomes more of an issue, or will it start trading at ridiculous price multiples compared to local incomes like it is now in TO or Van? Will Ottawa ever ever get its own "Ottawa RE bubble" thread?
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
1509 posts
579 upvotes
Ottawa
Tadalafil wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 11:00 pm
After lagging behind TO and Van for like a decade, Ottawa RE prices finally seem to be picking up over the last couple of years.

Will Ottawa price growth taper as local affordability becomes more of an issue, or will it start trading at ridiculous price multiples compared to local incomes like it is now in TO or Van? Will Ottawa ever ever get its own "Ottawa RE bubble" thread?
Everyone has their own definition of bubble. On fundamentals Ottawa has huge room for growth as incomes are very high. That doesn't mean much of course much of this is psychological and people in Ottawa are cautious. Others point to the availability of land but I am not sure this is more true than cities of similar size. Certainly not more than Calgary and Edmonton which can expand in all four directions largely without barriers. Ottawa has the Quebec side limitation as well as the Greenbelt and also the Ottawa river that makes the Area between Arnrior and Dunrobin further than it would be otherwise from Downtown. In Central Ottawa I would argue there is much less land available because of the NCC land practices as well as again the Quebec side.
Sr. Member
Oct 2, 2017
547 posts
360 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote:
Mar 5th, 2019 11:00 pm
After lagging behind TO and Van for like a decade, Ottawa RE prices finally seem to be picking up over the last couple of years.

Will Ottawa price growth taper as local affordability becomes more of an issue, or will it start trading at ridiculous price multiples compared to local incomes like it is now in TO or Van? Will Ottawa ever ever get its own "Ottawa RE bubble" thread?
The Toronto and Vancouver markets are outliers and not what we should expect all housing markets to behave like. Ottawa is certainly heading that way and it's not a good sign, hell I just saw a 500k middle unit town home pop up a couple of days ago. Everything in Kanata is gone within the week (except that one smaller than 1300sqf home trying to sell for 450k and has a horrible musty dog smell). There are homes going for 450k in dumps like Limoges, it's been an interesting time searching for homes. My favorite is one we went to view and the owners dogs had puked right in the middle of the fourier, and there was also dog shit in the rubber tray mats. smh
I'll see you at the top, cause the bottom is too crowded
Member
Aug 14, 2007
406 posts
169 upvotes
Ottawa
The demographic of Ottawa is pretty special compare with other cities in Canada, here are the few points: 1. Most family income are in the range of $80k to $200k (middle income family), people who make higher or lower that range will consider to big city like Toronto or Vancouver. 2. Ottawa people are more conservative, maybe due to the career they have choose. 3. Ottawa people love to travel, therefore they don't spend lots of money into their house.

Therefore, I don't see how Ottawa real estate can compare with Toronto or Vancouver. Compare with Kitchener/Waterloo may sound more reasonable.
Newbie
Dec 12, 2013
34 posts
22 upvotes
I just did a search on realtor.ca for town homes around the city and there are quite a few posted for above $450K some of these are not even located that centrally to the city... maybe we will city an Ottawa bubble thread sooner than later haha.
Member
Aug 6, 2011
410 posts
135 upvotes
StefanW499 wrote:
Mar 6th, 2019 8:40 am
I just did a search on realtor.ca for town homes around the city and there are quite a few posted for above $450K some of these are not even located that centrally to the city... maybe we will city an Ottawa bubble thread sooner than later haha.
I have a small bungalow close to downtown, I can't wait to see a similar property listed and the sold price. I need to refinance it to do RE project. If townhouses go up, mine should go up too.

LIke others, I also think bubble market is very unlikely. Once a particular type of house reach a price, people will look at other types of houses or futher locations or Gatineau. And a price catch up will happen in cheaper sub house markets
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2268 posts
344 upvotes
This is a definition of Housing Bubble.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/housing_bubble.asp
What is a Housing Bubble
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. Housing bubbles usually start with an increase in demand, in the face of limited supply, which takes a relatively extended period to replenish and increase. Speculators enter the market, further driving up demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
Based on the above definition, take it for what it is worth, below is my assessment:
Demand: People lining up for new built and resale selling briskly. Smiling Face With Open Mouth
Speculation: I don't see a lot of speculation happening in the market as there aren't that many flips or empty delivered homes in new sub-division.Confused Face
Exuberance: This is very unscientific, but based on reading the sentiment of posters on this thread, I don't see any poster behaving in an "irrational exuberant" manner like some of the ones in the Toronto or Vancouver RE thread. Confused Face
What Causes a Housing Bubble?
Traditionally, housing markets are not as prone to bubbles as other financial markets due to the large transaction and carrying costs associated with owning a house. However, a combination of very low-interest rates and a loosening of credit underwriting standards can bring borrowers into the market and fuel demand. A rise in interest rates and a tightening of credit standards can lessen demand, causing the housing bubble to burst.
Historically speaking, interest rate is still low but higher than a couple of years ago, plus lending standards have already been tighten, so I don't think this is what's fueling the current demand.

This week, signs are indicating that BoC is taking rate increase off the table, and it doesn't look like there will be any future tightening of credit standards.

Therefore, I don't think Ottawa is in a housing bubble, as the market doesn't exhibit any sign or falls in to the classic definition of one. However, things will change if there is change of government in October. But there's still lots of time between now and October and lots of things can still happen.
Member
Aug 6, 2011
410 posts
135 upvotes
I don't see any bubble anytime soon in Ottawa. Price has a lot of room to grow before it becomes a bubble. Ottawa is even cheaper than Montreal and Calgary.
I don't know much about Edmonton, but it looks undervalued, when considering the city size. But the economy might too much be dependent on the weak OIL industry.

Look at this graph from the RBC Housing Trends and Affordability Report


Image

Original report: http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-cus ... report.pdf
Member
Aug 14, 2007
406 posts
169 upvotes
Ottawa
I think we simply try to build a relationship between reported income and real estate price, it gives a misleading information. First of all, the reported income is based on StatCan data, which only report the taxable income in Canada. If the income is not earn in Canada, then it is not included. Think about it this way, Vancouver average income is extremely low compare with rest of Canada. However, if you have visited Vancouver before, the ratio of people driving luxury car are so much higher Ottawa which is one of the highest income city in Canada. Many people in Toronto and Vancouver, they don't report any income in Canada but with a very wealthy life and live in a luxury real estate.

By the way, the market can change quickly. Few months ago, people are worry about interest rate increase....

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