Real Estate

Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

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  • Mar 28th, 2024 1:54 pm
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7430 posts
4677 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: Question on the stats: is it possible that different stats are capturing the same listing? For instance, could a listing that is back on the market with a price decrease show in both categories?
That's a good question. I don't know the answer but I suspect that's very likely. Like your example or a common case is when the listing agent has an error in the price so it will come on as a new listing and almost immediately, there will also be a price adjustment on it. Similarly, I suspect that a good number of the 'Cancelled' are also 'New Listing' and you might even see "Conditional Sales" and "Sold" for the same listing.
Member
Jan 20, 2008
281 posts
204 upvotes
Ottawa
I have absolutely no interest in buying from Minto (mainly because of their involvement in the Kanata Lakes golf course redevelopment) but I received the following email from them today. Just like Cardel, it seems they have dropped their scarcity tactics before the market tanks.

"New release of homes in Arcadia
While health and safety is of the utmost importance to us, we understand that finding a home may still be a priority for you.

A new release of Single Family Homes and Executive Townhomes is available to purchase in Arcadia on a first come, first served basis by way of e-mail confirmation.

Once you email our sales team with your interest, a Sales Representative will contact you to provide more information, and explain how agreements will be handled virtually."
Deal Fanatic
Jan 15, 2017
5750 posts
6122 upvotes
Ottawa
rocurs wrote: I have absolutely no interest in buying from Minto (mainly because of their involvement in the Kanata Lakes golf course redevelopment) but I received the following email from them today. Just like Cardel, it seems they have dropped their scarcity tactics before the market tanks.

"New release of homes in Arcadia
While health and safety is of the utmost importance to us, we understand that finding a home may still be a priority for you.

A new release of Single Family Homes and Executive Townhomes is available to purchase in Arcadia on a first come, first served basis by way of e-mail confirmation.

Once you email our sales team with your interest, a Sales Representative will contact you to provide more information, and explain how agreements will be handled virtually."
If you check Minto's website, it would appear that they have homes available in all its communities. The first come, first served by way of e-mail confirmation is just wishful thinking, imo.

I have also noticed that Mattamy now has early occupancy models available in many of its communities.
Jr. Member
Jul 15, 2019
198 posts
266 upvotes
Minto's Arcadia phase 4 was actually available since April 4, 2020, but just not Email advertised.
Today (April 14) they sent out Emails and at the same time increased $5000 in price for all 36' Single Homes (not sure about other models).
We are looking to buy our first home, but decided to wait and watch the market for a while due to COVID.
Their increasing in price at this time really confused us. Not sure if it's a "scarcity tactics", or they really will never lower their prices.
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
4462 posts
4127 upvotes
HotDealBreaker wrote: Minto's Arcadia phase 4 was actually available since April 4, 2020, but just not Email advertised.
Today (April 14) they sent out Emails and at the same time increased $5000 in price for all 36' Single Homes (not sure about other models).
We are looking to buy our first home, but decided to wait and watch the market for a while due to COVID.
Their increasing in price at this time really confused us. Not sure if it's a "scarcity tactics", or they really will never lower their prices.
It is also possible they increased the price to boost confidence of buyers already signed to reduce the odds of the buyers from walking off.
Sr. Member
Aug 22, 2016
626 posts
408 upvotes
for pre-con there is a major risk of build delays and even there are risks of compromising on quality and so many other risks.
If you really need a house to live, IMO it is the right time to start looking for resale houses ideally just built never occupied houses. It is perfect time of uncertainty, there maybe some looking to dump the asset to book whatever profit they have. run comparables and submit lowball offers say <25% of Jan 2020 price. Waiting more longer can tilt it either way, to your advantage hypothetically you will have that 25% buffer in case the market crashes.
Deal Fanatic
Jan 15, 2017
5750 posts
6122 upvotes
Ottawa
Home sales down 60% in the first two weeks of April, says OREB.

https://obj.ca/article/ottawa-home-sale ... FPxCWBVM2k

"Although sales were down in the first two weeks of April, home prices continued to hold steady. The average price of a residential property dipped slightly this year compared with 2019, from about $505,000 to $496,000, while the average condo price jumped to nearly $340,000 in the first two weeks of this month, up from $304,000 a year ago."

Seems like in 2 weeks price gains this year for residential properties have been eliminated. Let's see what the next two weeks bring.
Deal Fanatic
Jan 15, 2017
5750 posts
6122 upvotes
Ottawa
michelb wrote: In case anyone is following this,

Here are the month-to-month changes:

Dec 2018 - Avg condo : $278,295, avg residential : $453,011
Jan 2019 - Avg condo : $283,990, avg residential : $432,829
Feb 2019 - Avg condo : $288,354, avg residential : $466,540
Mar 2019 - Avg condo : $290,181, avg residential : $480,143
April 2019 - Avg condo : $307,659, avg residential : $488,729
May 2019 - Avg condo : $297,731, avg residential : $493,691
June 2019 - Avg condo : $308,842, avg residential : $500,716
July 2019: - Avg condo : $299,655, avg residential : $487,308
Aug 2019: - Avg condo : $308,781, avg residential : $484,921
Sept 2019: - Avg condo : $309,373, avg residential : $487,438
Oct 2019: - Avg condo : $319,208, avg residential : $483,405
Nov 2019: - Avg condo : $313,734, avg residential : $501,201
Dec 2019: - Avg condo : $310,675, avg residential : $500,306
Jan 2020: - Avg condo : $338,077, avg residential : $516,229
Feb 2020: - Avg condo : $349,813, avg residential : $563,694
March 2020: - Avg condo : $369,311, avg residential : $559,779
....
Want to bring this post back in light of the recent info from OREB on the first two weeks of April. Average condo is $340,000 so down $29,311 from March 2020 and average residential is $496,000 down $63,779 from March 2020.

Thanks @michelb for posting those numbers.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
4527 posts
3687 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: Home sales down 60% in the first two weeks of April, says OREB.

https://obj.ca/article/ottawa-home-sale ... FPxCWBVM2k

"Although sales were down in the first two weeks of April, home prices continued to hold steady. The average price of a residential property dipped slightly this year compared with 2019, from about $505,000 to $496,000, while the average condo price jumped to nearly $340,000 in the first two weeks of this month, up from $304,000 a year ago."

Seems like in 2 weeks price gains this year for residential properties have been eliminated. Let's see what the next two weeks bring.
Put another way prices are down 10% from February's high. There are two sides to this:

1. Right now people who have to sell probably outnumber people who have to buy so it's a bit of desperation driving prices down. Also surprisingly the higher end market is a bit more frozen than the lower end market so the average would be skewed down. Less desperation on both sides perhaps.

2. On the other hand most people haven't seen any real repercussions yet from the slow down and expect things to soon go back to normal. This seems overly optimistic based on everything I see. IMF says the contraction worldwide will be much much larger than 2008. 30 times larger actually. The federal workforce is 22%. Add that most households wouldn't have only federal workers and you have a lot of households dependent on the real economy.

If we recover quickly enough and interest rates are low enough that the government returns to normal in FY 2021-22 I think this will be a blip and probably put us back on a slow and steady RE market (We'll only have lost the blistering 2019 gains.) If there is even a hint of finding the $ on the back of the public service the market will drop like a stone and be worse than 2011. Especially if DND and RCMP don't escape cuts this time. So far most aren't even contemplating this as they sit at home getting paid their full salaries.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Mar 30, 2010
4021 posts
3238 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
fogetmylogin wrote: If we recover quickly enough and interest rates are low enough that the government returns to normal in FY 2021-22 I think this will be a blip and probably put us back on a slow and steady RE market (We'll only have lost the blistering 2019 gains.) If there is even a hint of finding the $ on the back of the public service the market will drop like a stone and be worse than 2011. Especially if DND and RCMP don't escape cuts this time. So far most aren't even contemplating this as they sit at home getting paid their full salaries.
The public sector is already starting to get worried about cuts, with some even starting to talk about DRAP v2. Head over to r/CanadaPublicServants on Reddit and you'll see it in a lot of the comments.

With that said, they also know that IF that happens, it's not going to be for another 2-3 years from now.

Personally I think a slow down in public sector hiring, ramped up taxes and a strong recovery next year may be enough to prevent that from happening.
RichmondCA wrote: Leading indicator on bear market, when you see this avatar start popping up in this thread
Sr. Member
Aug 22, 2016
626 posts
408 upvotes
Do these petitions ever work? I keep hearing stories about a lot of small businesses are unable to take advantage of this CEBA due to the 50K payroll limit. There maybe many Ottawa RE contractors that might not have qualified to utilize this CEBA due to that 50K payroll limit. IMO this is one excellent help to businesses that are struggling with cashflow during these times. 40K interest free loan.

https://www.change.org/p/justin-trudeau ... ligibility
Sr. Member
Mar 20, 2017
758 posts
1853 upvotes
Analyzing price trends when the sample size decreases by 60% is almost meaningless, aka sales mix.

Real estate is the most illiquid category of assets. Its only been a few weeks of quarantine and layoffs. Give it a couple of months and then you'll start seeing the extent of the situation
Deal Addict
Nov 11, 2004
3503 posts
615 upvotes
Ottawa
House i walked by, sold with in 2 days for 30k over asking. In Orleans,
Hello
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
2011 posts
1030 upvotes
dc200 wrote: The public sector is already starting to get worried about cuts, with some even starting to talk about DRAP v2. Head over to r/CanadaPublicServants on Reddit and you'll see it in a lot of the comments.

With that said, they also know that IF that happens, it's not going to be for another 2-3 years from now.

Personally I think a slow down in public sector hiring, ramped up taxes and a strong recovery next year may be enough to prevent that from happening.
When DRAP v1 happened, Canada was in excellent fiscal shape relative to rest of first world, with a booming economy relative to the "jobless recovery" of U.S. Today, Canada's federal debt is still quite low relative to rest of the developed world, while the virus hit is still quite mild. DRAP v2 will happen when Jason Kenney becomes prime minister on the back of 750k face mask donation, on ideological grounds, not because Trudeau needs to cut a few billion in spending.

Federal tax increases and spending cuts will happen way before such action is demanded by credit markets.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Mar 30, 2010
4021 posts
3238 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
BlueSolstice wrote: When DRAP v1 happened, Canada was in excellent fiscal shape relative to rest of first world, with a booming economy relative to the "jobless recovery" of U.S. Today, Canada's federal debt is still quite low relative to rest of the developed world, while the virus hit is still quite mild. DRAP v2 will happen when Jason Kenney becomes prime minister on the back of 750k face mask donation, on ideological grounds, not because Trudeau needs to cut a few billion in spending.

Federal tax increases and spending cuts will happen way before such action is demanded by credit markets.
Here's hoping.

They have been on crazy hiring sprees though. Might see that slow down this year.
RichmondCA wrote: Leading indicator on bear market, when you see this avatar start popping up in this thread
Sr. Member
Jul 15, 2019
724 posts
588 upvotes
dc200 wrote: The public sector is already starting to get worried about cuts, with some even starting to talk about DRAP v2. Head over to r/CanadaPublicServants on Reddit and you'll see it in a lot of the comments.

With that said, they also know that IF that happens, it's not going to be for another 2-3 years from now.

Personally I think a slow down in public sector hiring, ramped up taxes and a strong recovery next year may be enough to prevent that from happening.
It’s hard to think a DRAPv2 would occur right now, a large portion of the public sector is moving into retirement. I’d say we see a large hiring freeze before any cuts are made. But, as you mention it nots something that happens right away. It would be in the next 2-3years before any cuts would occur.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2014
1278 posts
3034 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
The precon premium over resale market is insane right now. There was a precon premium before Covid with builders raising prices faster than the resale market selling to buyers who happily paid the premium thinking that the house would appreciate even more by the time they would have to close.

Now the resale market is starting to slide (albeit on low volumes) yet builders can't/won't drop prices in fear of pissing off buyers who bought in the last 6 months. I suspect most builders are OK with not selling homes for now as they can't get permits for new developments anyways. This should also help prices as it bottlenecks new homes from being added to the housing supply.

If (very big if as we still don't know the trajectory of the virus) things return to "normal" within the year, I speculate Ottawa will go back to days of bidding war from 2 months ago as the supply issue has not been addressed but only made worse.
Last edited by Tadalafil on Apr 15th, 2020 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
4462 posts
4127 upvotes
arbytor wrote: for pre-con there is a major risk of build delays and even there are risks of compromising on quality and so many other risks.
If you really need a house to live, IMO it is the right time to start looking for resale houses ideally just built never occupied houses. It is perfect time of uncertainty, there maybe some looking to dump the asset to book whatever profit they have. run comparables and submit lowball offers say <25% of Jan 2020 price. Waiting more longer can tilt it either way, to your advantage hypothetically you will have that 25% buffer in case the market crashes.
I think that sounds nice in theory. But realistically on a $400k home, you are asking the seller to consider an offer that is $100k less than asking. Good luck finding someone who will be willing to write the offer up for you.

Though, I can see someone may be successful if they put in something at 10% below January prices. But the offer has to be unconditional with proof of funds and a $50k to $75k deposit plus an accommodating closing date.
Deal Fanatic
Jan 15, 2017
5750 posts
6122 upvotes
Ottawa
Tadalafil wrote: The precon premium over resale market is insane right now. There was a precon premium before Covid with builders raising prices faster than the resale market selling to buyers who happily paid the premium thinking that the house would appreciate even more by the time they would have to close.

Now the resale market is starting to slide (albeit on low volumes) yet builders can't/won't drop prices in fear of pissing off buyers who bought in the last 6 months. I suspect most builders are OK with not selling homes for now as they can't get permits for new developments anyways. This should also help prices as it bottlenecks new homes from being added to the housing supply.

If (very big if as we still don't know the trajectory of the virus) things return to "normal" within the year, I speculate Ottawa will go back to days of bidding war from 2 months ago as the supply issue has not been addressed but only made worse.
I agree with you that the precon premium is insane right now. Am not so certain about builders being okay not selling right now. Don't know how many use the cash from today's sales to fund builds from last year. Cash flow is cash flow and it is so needed right now.

As for "normal", well, everything I read from politicians and economists and whatnot are stating that we will not go back to the way it was, but instead a new normal. This new normal has not been written yet, but I suspect looking to recent experience won't shed much insight to how things will evolve. The Governor of the Bank of Canada today stated that we should "buckle our seatbelts" as we are in for a bumpy ride.

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