Real Estate

Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

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Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
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jk9088 wrote: What does everyone think about how this will affect existing houses in Morgan's Grant? Slowdown of price growth due to the influx of new builds? Increased growth because the area as a whole will continue to develop becoming more attractive, and existing homes will become more appealing because they are located more centrally in Morgan's Grant than the new subdivisions? Or not much change because the increase in supply and demand will keep pace with each other?

What about rental prices, will they be affected by an influx of new houses?
I think it will have the same impact that Monahan Landing had on Bridlewood. Essentially, the new build would more or less put a cap on how much homes can go for in the older neighborhood.
Member
Jul 25, 2008
400 posts
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ottawa
ghasita wrote: True, but you do pay to begin with. Though, would be interested in knowing how much green belt properties have appreciated (roughly, in last 10 years) compared to suburb like Kanata/Barrhaven.
It's hard to do apples to apples comparisons because of the concentration of lower income housing inside the Greenbelt and the a high percentage of rental properties where investor-owners are often more interested in cashflow than maintaining the built asset.

I'd imagine a 500k investment in centretown, hintonburg, or Westboro has done better from a total return standpoint than one in Barrhaven, assuming both are single family freeholds.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
5873 posts
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Ottawa
danishh wrote: It's hard to do apples to apples comparisons because of the concentration of lower income housing inside the Greenbelt and the a high percentage of rental properties where investor-owners are often more interested in cashflow than maintaining the built asset.

I'd imagine a 500k investment in centretown, hintonburg, or Westboro has done better from a total return standpoint than one in Barrhaven, assuming both are single family freeholds.
Actually, I haven't looked at the numbers but I think Barrhaven / Kanata have done better than most (if not all) areas inside the Greenbelt in the last 10 years. (FWIW, I don't live or own RE in either locations)
Jr. Member
Mar 13, 2004
195 posts
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Anyone to compare new towns in Kanata lake vs small single In riverside south. For investing which one has more potential
Member
Jul 25, 2008
400 posts
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ottawa
michelb wrote: Actually, I haven't looked at the numbers but I think Barrhaven / Kanata have done better than most (if not all) areas inside the Greenbelt in the last 10 years. (FWIW, I don't live or own RE in either locations)
Oreb publishes numbers every year and the citizen does a special, but again, not a fair apples to apples comparison. You really need to look at individual properties and at total return, servicing and maintenance costs, etc, not just at average transaction prices in a certain geographic area.
Member
Nov 10, 2014
406 posts
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Ottawa, ON
cactus88 wrote: Anyone to compare new towns in Kanata lake vs small single In riverside south. For investing which one has more potential
Either option would be cash flow negative with 20% down and 30 year amoritization- even before factoring in vacancy, repairs, and maintenance.
Sr. Member
Oct 2, 2017
702 posts
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cactus88 wrote: am in the market of investment property

debating on kanata north town house (for over 500K) or riverside south small single (31 ft lot).. anybody dare share thoughts on location?

My reason for kanata lake area, live nearby, easy to access for renting unit, good school and good rental demand, however quite big competition as there are lots of home in rental; another downside for townhouse ranged over 500K, any further room for price increase? is it risky in terms of investments?

Riverside south, been a hot region in the last couple months, LRT/new core center, expect to be good neighborhood in next couple years. likely hot if LRT did extend to here.
down side, rental demand, is it low demand with low inventory for rental?

thoughts?
it's a gamble, but you could make it work if the tech sector holds. The #1 Kanata is hot is tech companies & good schools. You'll need big pockets tho to be cash-flow positive
I'll see you at the top, cause the bottom is too crowded
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Jan 17, 2005
1649 posts
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cyberfreak123 wrote: What are you looking for? your home or investment property? And where? I guess we're here a minority. lol. I still believe in a central location for long term investment.
Home.. Nepean, along Baseline. Avoiding hot areas like Westboro or Hintonburg. Also avoiding sketch areas too...
Newbie
Aug 7, 2018
30 posts
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michelb wrote: Actually, I haven't looked at the numbers but I think Barrhaven / Kanata have done better than most (if not all) areas inside the Greenbelt in the last 10 years. (FWIW, I don't live or own RE in either locations)
While those areas have increased I would be quite shocked if they have appreciated more than hintonburg.
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Jun 15, 2009
414 posts
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Nepean
I won't be as I think majority of the buyers prefer newer homes over older homes. I personally would not buy a home just because of cash flow and sitting on the 20 years old home and continue doing maintenance - I am speculating on appreciation. In the long run, I see potential in Kanata/Barrhaven homes appreciating more than Central parts as city widens and more employment gets spread out around Ottawa than concentrating in/around downtown.
DogsWithJobs wrote: While those areas have increased I would be quite shocked if they have appreciated more than hintonburg.
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Jul 4, 2004
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DogsWithJobs wrote: While those areas have increased I would be quite shocked if they have appreciated more than hintonburg.
It's hard to compare since you really need to look at specifics but looking at what's available in Hintonburg

55 Irving : asking $699k (active), last sold in 2005 for $302k.
145 Baywater : asking $915k (active), last sold in 2011 for $770k
166 Baywater : sold $770k (conditional), last sold in 2015 for $592k

Looking at Kanata Lakes

166 Grainstone : asking $850k (active), last sold in 2016 for $665k
155 Insmill : asking $715k (cs), last sold in 2012 $591k
6 Maricona : sold $650k, last sold in 2012 for $457k
126 GATESPARK : sold for $400k, last sold in 2008 for $303k
12 MANNING : sold for 810k, last sold in 2006 for $510k

These were just picked going through recent sales which had been sold on MLS in the past so is by no means a very accurate comparaison but I don't see a huge advantage in Hintonburg - on average, it's probably pretty similar gain.
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Dec 4, 2016
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michelb wrote: It's hard to compare since you really need to look at specifics but looking at what's available in Hintonburg

55 Irving : asking $699k (active), last sold in 2005 for $302k.
145 Baywater : asking $915k (active), last sold in 2011 for $770k
166 Baywater : sold $770k (conditional), last sold in 2015 for $592k

Looking at Kanata Lakes

166 Grainstone : asking $850k (active), last sold in 2016 for $665k
155 Insmill : asking $715k (cs), last sold in 2012 $591k
6 Maricona : sold $650k, last sold in 2012 for $457k
126 GATESPARK : sold for $400k, last sold in 2008 for $303k
12 MANNING : sold for 810k, last sold in 2006 for $510k

These were just picked going through recent sales which had been sold on MLS in the past so is by no means a very accurate comparaison but I don't see a huge advantage in Hintonburg - on average, it's probably pretty similar gain.
Thank you for the update. Interest to see that Hintonburg was quite affordable back in mid-2000's, while Kanata Lakes has not appreciated all that much if you look at 15+ year time frame. Not exactly surprising, as the demise of Nortel and later Blackberry meant Kanata was quite expensive 10+ years ago, compared to today, once you account for inflation and RE gain in rest of Ottawa.

Anyone know why Hintonburg was so cheap pre-2008ish?
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Jul 4, 2004
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BlueSolstice wrote: Thank you for the update. Interest to see that Hintonburg was quite affordable back in mid-2000's, while Kanata Lakes has not appreciated all that much if you look at 15+ year time frame. Not exactly surprising, as the demise of Nortel and later Blackberry meant Kanata was quite expensive 10+ years ago, compared to today, once you account for inflation and RE gain in rest of Ottawa.

Anyone know why Hintonburg was so cheap pre-2008ish?
My honest opinion (and I really hope I'm not insulting anyone) is that Hintonburg was kind of dumpy and not that desirable back then. Now, with the proximity to Westboro / Island Park, LRT and some gentrification, it's become much more popular. Kanata on the other hand, was mostly new / newer construction back then which is always popular and fetches a premium. But again, these sales were selected randomly and really aren't an elaborate market evaluation. It's also important to note that a big portion of the increase in areas like Westboro, Glebe, etc is that because of the demand, sellers have been able to justify significant upgrades. If a house in the Glebe was worth $300k and is now worth $1.2mil but the owner also put it $300k of renos, it's not fair to say that home values have quadrupled. That's a factor that many ignore when looking at trendier areas. Old homes are being bought for land value, torn down and then a new home(s) is built in it's place. The increase in value isn't from the original home; it's because it's a new home in an area that has very few new builds that was built at significant expense.
Last edited by michelb on Apr 10th, 2019 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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May 23, 2017
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Certain areas within the greenbelt have definitely appreciated more than Kanata/Barrhaven (at least over the last 10-15 years; I think in recent years growth in Westboro etc has slowed down comparatively because it's gotten prohibitively expensive for many people to buy). But as a whole, I'm inclined to say the suburbs have done much better. There are certain areas in the greenbelt that have outperformed incredibly, but also much larger areas that have just stagnated because they aren't that desirable. So on average, I'd say homes in the greenbelt did poorly compared to Kanata/Barrhaven (which as a whole is more consistent between different areas).

IMO there's definitely more potential inside the greenbelt, but you have to get lucky that the neighbourhood you picked is going to be the next area gentrified (if you go in after it's gentrified you end up paying top dollar anyways). Usually this means picking an older home in a less desirable neighbourhood (which is more work to maintain/deal with tenants while you wait for the value to go up). For me personally, this is more risky than going the safe route with a newer townhouse in the suburbs. But as they say, more risk = more reward!

I also agree with michelb that it can be hard to really know the true appreciation in gentrified areas because there are so many teardown + rebuilt or renovated properties, and these costs are not reflected in the numbers.
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May 23, 2017
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danthemightyone wrote: Home.. Nepean, along Baseline. Avoiding hot areas like Westboro or Hintonburg. Also avoiding sketch areas too...
Have you looked in Centrepointe? I really like that neighbourhood to live in. Prices are higher than suburbs but still affordable (definitely not crazy like Westboro), it's not sketchy at all, houses are newer than many other areas (usually around 25 years old instead of 50-100). It will also be close to a future LRT station if you buy a house near Baseline station. If you feel like making a bit of extra money by renting out rooms, it's super easy to find students from Algonquin looking to rent.
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Mar 28, 2007
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Tadalafil wrote: Either option would be cash flow negative with 20% down and 30 year amoritization- even before factoring in vacancy, repairs, and maintenance.
But to what extent? Personally I would be fine paying 100-200$ a month towards the property (ideally cash flow positive or neutral, but this would be acceptable to me too).

Example: 400k new townhome, 20% down, you can probably find around a $1500/month mortgage assuming good credit. Tack on the property taxes and home insurance, you're looking at probably $1900-2000/month. Rent can be had for $1800 (maybe more), so would mean $100-200/month out of pocket. That adds up to around $2400 or so (on the high end) out of pocket (not including repairs). Not too bad if you can afford it IMO to get some exposure to RE in Ottawa. Now this is assuming you never raise rent prices. If prices continue to appreciate at a modest rate (average), you will most likely be cash flow neutral in 5yrs or so.
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Aug 14, 2007
524 posts
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Ottawa
jk9088 wrote: Certain areas within the greenbelt have definitely appreciated more than Kanata/Barrhaven (at least over the last 10-15 years; I think in recent years growth in Westboro etc has slowed down comparatively because it's gotten prohibitively expensive for many people to buy). But as a whole, I'm inclined to say the suburbs have done much better. There are certain areas in the greenbelt that have outperformed incredibly, but also much larger areas that have just stagnated because they aren't that desirable. So on average, I'd say homes in the greenbelt did poorly compared to Kanata/Barrhaven (which as a whole is more consistent between different areas).

IMO there's definitely more potential inside the greenbelt, but you have to get lucky that the neighbourhood you picked is going to be the next area gentrified (if you go in after it's gentrified you end up paying top dollar anyways). Usually this means picking an older home in a less desirable neighbourhood (which is more work to maintain/deal with tenants while you wait for the value to go up). For me personally, this is more risky than going the safe route with a newer townhouse in the suburbs. But as they say, more risk = more reward!

I also agree with michelb that it can be hard to really know the true appreciation in gentrified areas because there are so many teardown + rebuilt or renovated properties, and these costs are not reflected in the numbers.
Real estate is interesting investment, since there are no property is exactly the same even two properties are next to each other, their price can be very different. There are extreme case in the market where two properties are next to others and built by the same builder with the same floorplan. However, one of the property is next to a commercial parking with garbage dumpster, it is selling much lower than the other.

Back to the topic, buying property inside greenbelt can weather better value when there are economy downturn. Also, I find that property is easier to rent out inside greenbelt. In today market, every property can be rent out and sell in a good place, but don't forget the experience back in Year 2012 to Year 2014. There were few thousands condo sit in the market and seeking for buyer. As I said, there are no property is the same, but some properties/locations are preform better than others, it is all about location/timing/comparable/market demand.
Last edited by audiorichard on Apr 10th, 2019 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jan 17, 2005
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jk9088 wrote: Have you looked in Centrepointe? I really like that neighbourhood to live in. Prices are higher than suburbs but still affordable (definitely not crazy like Westboro), it's not sketchy at all, houses are newer than many other areas (usually around 25 years old instead of 50-100). It will also be close to a future LRT station if you buy a house near Baseline station. If you feel like making a bit of extra money by renting out rooms, it's super easy to find students from Algonquin looking to rent.
It's one of my preferred area, but I see houses around 700k+ are on the market now. Any single home below that range seems to be going fast. One home was sold even before I managed to set up a showing.
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Nov 10, 2014
406 posts
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Ottawa, ON
blackdragon12 wrote: But to what extent? Personally I would be fine paying 100-200$ a month towards the property (ideally cash flow positive or neutral, but this would be acceptable to me too).

Example: 400k new townhome, 20% down, you can probably find around a $1500/month mortgage assuming good credit. Tack on the property taxes and home insurance, you're looking at probably $1900-2000/month. Rent can be had for $1800 (maybe more), so would mean $100-200/month out of pocket. That adds up to around $2400 or so (on the high end) out of pocket (not including repairs). Not too bad if you can afford it IMO to get some exposure to RE in Ottawa. Now this is assuming you never raise rent prices. If prices continue to appreciate at a modest rate (average), you will most likely be cash flow neutral in 5yrs or so.
400k in Kanata Lakes gets you a 3 bed 2.5 bath townhouse that is 25~30 years old in need of updates, for which you may have to win a bidding war to purchase... Uniform and Cardel are selling new build townhouses at ~550k after some upgrades in Richardson Ridge, and I am not aware of any other builders in Kanata Lakes area right now. Even with 110k down + closing costs, the unit has to fetch ~$2600/month+ utilities to cover mortgage costs, property tax, and insurance alone.

I am wary of deals that are not cash flow positive on day 1 of purchase for couple of reasons:
1- opportunity costs of down payment- I can throw 80k in index funds or blue chip dividend stocks and call it a day. Cashflow negative property requires more money monthly, and comes with tenants, extra furnace, roof, appliances, etc. to maintain.
2- potential for future leverage- holding a property with bad cash flow is a serious detriment to obtaining additional mortgages when good deals pop up.

That being said, taking a cash flow negative property still could be a great investment in the long run (ie. TO condos few years back). It depends on one's investment objectives, strategies, and beliefs about the market.
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Jun 15, 2009
414 posts
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Nepean
You can still be cash flow positive (ignoring long term maintenance and vacancy loss) with 400K town in Barrhaven/Kanata South. Going rent in Barrhaven is 1900 and with current rate of 3.30% for 5 years, you would easily cover mortgage/tax/insurance and come out with spare of over 100$. Just find a good long term tenant.
Tadalafil wrote: 400k in Kanata Lakes gets you a 3 bed 2.5 bath townhouse that is 25~30 years old in need of updates, for which you may have to win a bidding war to purchase... Uniform and Cardel are selling new build townhouses at ~550k after some upgrades in Richardson Ridge, and I am not aware of any other builders in Kanata Lakes area right now. Even with 110k down + closing costs, the unit has to fetch ~$2600/month+ utilities to cover mortgage costs, property tax, and insurance alone.

I am wary of deals that are not cash flow positive on day 1 of purchase for couple of reasons:
1- opportunity costs of down payment- I can throw 80k in index funds or blue chip dividend stocks and call it a day. Cashflow negative property requires more money monthly, and comes with tenants, extra furnace, roof, appliances, etc. to maintain.
2- potential for future leverage- holding a property with bad cash flow is a serious detriment to obtaining additional mortgages when good deals pop up.

That being said, taking a cash flow negative property still could be a great investment in the long run (ie. TO condos few years back). It depends on one's investment objectives, strategies, and beliefs about the market.

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