I do agree that the number of listings is low but to be fair, the avg is around 1700-1800 for October (and 1400-1500 for November) so it's not that far off the average. It's 5-10% below average, not 30% or 50% below average.
In case anyone is following this,BlueSolstice wrote: ↑ October stats are out:
https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/octobers-w ... le-market/
1607 sales. Would be interesting to see what MOI looks like when hometeamottawa publishes inventory numbers.
Average condo prices up significantly YOY. Based on personal anecdotal evidence, this 18% price could be real, rather than a change of sales mix. Basically condos in Ottawa stay flat for a decade, and then suddenly jumped 20% over a few months.
I don't think it's it will have a big impact (as much as you hear about it in the media, I think short-term-rentals are a pretty insignificant portion of rentals) but I do think it will have an effect.William W wrote: ↑ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/o ... -1.5349027
Wonder if this would put a small ding to the sentiment of people buying property as investment.
Freehold MOI 2.0, while condo MOI at 1.3. Definitely a hot market, but hopefully not hot enough to attraction provincial government attention and the introduction of another housing tax, foreign buyer or not. The relative calm on the high end detached segment probably helps with the MOI number.
Maybe downtown core, but probably not suburbs. AirBnB is never all that big in Ottawa. Of all the things governments can do to show they care about affordable housing, restrictions on AirBnB would probably have the least impact on RE prices.William W wrote: ↑ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/o ... -1.5349027
Wonder if this would put a small ding to the sentiment of people buying property as investment.
Yes zero in suburbs though close suburbs like Glebe have decent sized AirBnB market. In the Byward Market I think it could have a significant impact. A few buildings have lots of units and some of the houses towards the north are also used for AirBnb. If people decide to sell or rent long term that should have an impact. In genera the Byward market is on the decline vs Westboro, Centretown and especially Landsdowne.BlueSolstice wrote: ↑ Maybe downtown core, but probably not suburbs. AirBnB is never all that big in Ottawa. Of all the things governments can do to show they care about affordable housing, restrictions on AirBnB would probably have the least impact on RE prices.
Buildings definitely way overbuilt, and Harper's layoffs hit condos particularly hard. For mid-sized cities like Ottawa, condos get hit much harder than freeholds in a downturn. Calgary and Edmonton showed similar things, if I remember correctly.audiorichard wrote: ↑ Most likely, the year-over-year increase will be around 8%-9% in 2019. I wonder what is growth rate for next year? especially the Spring 2020. Due to the ultra low inventory, I expect another 5%-10% in 2020. Which types of properties will gain the most? It is normal to see a standard townhouses are now around $450k range (from low 400's in Orleans, mid 400's in Barrhaven to high 400's in Kanata). Are we expect the see townhouses keep growing? Look back to 2012-2016, there are LOTS of condos stay in the market. It is because builders are over-built back in 2009-2011. Are we going to see the same things for townhouses? since builders are rushing to push townhomes to the market and an ocean of townhouse will be available in summer 2020-2021.
Do you think condo market will be the next wave of increase? check out Oct 2019 data, there are no much condo inventory in the market.
Oh well, I just throw out a list of questions, let's discuss....
A further problem in Ottawa is the cost of construction and approvals etc make Condos expensive relative to land costs. So I can buy a freehold mere blocks away from most two bedroom condos for the same price.BlueSolstice wrote: ↑ Buildings definitely way overbuilt, and Harper's layoffs hit condos particularly hard. For mid-sized cities like Ottawa, condos get hit much harder than freeholds in a downturn. Calgary and Edmonton showed similar things, if I remember correctly.
Keep in mind that a lot of condo projects got converted into rentals, which means you would be competing with institutional landlords with brand new buildings if you intend to rent it out. On the bright side, the increase in construction cost and relative lack of appreciation in condos means it's not all that profitable to build condos, compared to free holds outside greenbelt. On the not so great side, any condo would be eventually competing against freehold towns currently being built. You're basically betting that LRT will be as broken as it is today, and traffic in Ottawa would approach Toronto levels, for middle class government workers to want to squeeze into condos.
I see this as land being cheap relative to construction and red tape costs. Other than land/housing costs, things in Ottawa cost the same or more than Toronto, due to a relative lack of unskilled labor, hence the high median household income. Interestingly, REIT's seem rather keen on building brand new rental buildings in suburban Ottawa, often in areas far, far out of downtown. The cluster of rental apartments in Kanata near the gold course, and the frontier building next to Blair station. They got built, and more are on the way. I do wonder how the institutional investors justify the cost of construction, no matter how cheap they get their land.fogetmylogin wrote: ↑ A further problem in Ottawa is the cost of construction and approvals etc make Condos expensive relative to land costs. So I can buy a freehold mere blocks away from most two bedroom condos for the same price.
Definitely. That's why 40+ year old condo towns in Kanata suddenly has buyers, and even 40+ year old concrete condos in Kanata are getting interest. 700k+ freeholds are sitting on the market.michelb wrote: ↑ IMO, the biggest factors in the increases in prices of townhomes and condos are the tightening of mortgage rules and the increase in property values in the city.
With the new rules, many buyers simply cannot qualify to purchase properties above $450-550k and in Ottawa, that's below or near the starting point for singles which has forced a lot of buyers to lower prices properties (typically apartments and townhomes) that has really pushed the prices of those up. I haven't really checked but I believe that if you can stretch your budget beyond $550k, there are a lot more opportunities and you get a lot more value for your money (basically you have tons of buyers competing for sub $550k properties so there's tons of demand but once you cross that line, the number of buyers is much, much less and buyers have a lot more choices)
True, but stacked towns carry the condo stigma, so it doesn't command the freehold premium. If you extend analysis to detached, you will find even lower yields on singles, as it's hard to rent a house outside greenbelt for more than 2500, while purchase price and property taxes on singles are much higher.audiorichard wrote: ↑ People may think that standard freehold townhouses have the biggest gain for the past two years compare with other type of properties in the market. What I find interesting is if you only look at the return, stacked townhouse are outperformed standard freehold townhouses for the past two years. If you can find 3 bedrooms stacked townhouses, you can rent it for $1700 range compare with standard freehold townhouse for $2000, the rental return is actually better than freehold townhouses after you included all the fees.
