Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

khkchan wrote: ↑ Anyone who can find out the sale price for 666 bridleglen crescent in Kanata? It's a detach 50 foot 3000sq+ house built by HN homes. It was asking at 950k where the same model only sells at 830k at the Orleans.

Thanks

Its the Elmhurst model which is 2850sq.

Tadalafil wrote: ↑ Global equities are starting to get wrecked by the effects of corona virus, yet Ottawa RE is still hitting new highs every week.

I've been waiting for this market meltdown for a year or 2. I'll buy some when the price is right. I still think the Can and US market is still expensive, but it's getting more and more interesting.

Tadalafil wrote: ↑ Global equities are starting to get wrecked by the effects of corona virus, yet Ottawa RE is still hitting new highs every week.

Aside from blind speculation, a case could be made for buying investment RE in Ottawa at nosebleed prices and negative cashflow under certain circumstances. When both bond yields (and hence interest rates) are low, and equity valuations are high, alternative investments (eg. cashflow negative properties) are easier to swallow as there is no reasonable risk adjusted returns available. This will no longer be the case if the equities continue their sell off. For those with larger portfolios, I think it is worthwhile to liquidate a portion of it to buy indexes.

One could also argue that corona virus is driving interest rate down, making RE more attractive even at negative cash flow. Corona virus has also been hitting energy prices harder than the general economy, hurting the economies of Alberta and Saskatchewan, which would push BoC to further cut rates.

Psychologically, people tend to put money into winner and pull money from losers, and Equity has been the loser lately.

That said, I think Ottawa RE is already above long term fundamental value, at least outside greenbelt. Builders must been laughing at all the people waiting outside the sale office, when they know they have nearly unlimited amount of land to build freehold towns.

cyberfreak123 wrote: ↑ I've been waiting for this market meltdown for a year or 2. I'll buy some when the price is right. I still think the Can and US market is still expensive, but it's getting more and more interesting.

I was planning on purchasing another property this year but stocks are looking nice right now. Buy when others are fearful.
As to today, I'm starting to DCA into this decline and will keep on deploying more at every 5% decline.
RIP goal of acquiring another property.

BlueSolstice wrote: ↑ Psychologically, people tend to put money into winner and pull money from losers, and Equity has been the loser lately.

I agree. Thats good though, I'll be rational and do the exact opposite.

BlueSolstice wrote: ↑ Psychologically, people tend to put money into winner and pull money from losers, and Equity has been the loser lately.

That said, I think Ottawa RE is already above long term fundamental value, at least outside greenbelt. Builders must been laughing at all the people waiting outside the sale office, when they know they have nearly unlimited amount of land to build freehold towns.

Yes, dividend yields are looking more attractive. Though, I was trying to related Ottawa RE prices with Canada's GDP growth. Below are years where Canada had a negative GDP growth.

1982 - GDP Growth (-3.187%)
1991 - GDP Growth (-2.086%)
2009 - GDP Growth (-2.986%)

And if we were to line up these years plus 2 subsequent years with Ottawa RE prices:
1982 - 9.5%
1983 - 21.3%
1984 - 18.4%

1991 - 1.4%
1992 - 0.4%
1993 - 3%

2009 - 4.9%
2010 - 7.7%
2011 - 4.9%

I think the 90s result for the Ottawa market is a little bit convoluted because those years coincide with the Chretien's cuts.

All to say, historically speaking, if Canada falls into a recession in 2020, I think Ottawa RE prices should still see growth in price until at least 2021 because of low interest rates and government pumping money into the economy.

I'm not recommending people to do this, but there are more reasons now for speculators to sign for pre-construction because speculators can skip the negative cash flow phase of holding on to their purchases while they enjoy leveraged equity growth in RE prices until 2021/2022. And if these speculators are really aggressive, they can put their down payment in the equity market to collect high dividend payments and cash out in 2021/2022 when they need the money to close on their new construction.

Was at Claridge Bridlewood trails last night and saw five lots getting scooped in less than 2 hours. I think it is effect of Mattamy upcoming release pricing which is making Claridge little less bad now...

ghasita wrote: ↑ Was at Claridge Bridlewood trails last night and saw five lots getting scooped in less than 2 hours. I think it is effect of Mattamy upcoming release pricing which is making Claridge little less bad now...

Mattamy increased their Fir by 1k since February 1, I don't see how see how a 1k increase by Mattamy would push people to flock to Claridge Bridlewood Trails.

Its a 20K increase not 1K. It was sold for 430 for Craftsman and 434 for TN on Feb 1. New price I got from them on Sunday was 450 for Fir Craftsman and 454 for Fir TN

Zero Hope wrote: ↑ Mattamy increased their Fir by 1k since February 1, I don't see how see how a 1k increase by Mattamy would push people to flock to Claridge Bridlewood Trails.

Can anyone tell me what 12 Morenz Terrace, Kanata went for? TIA

This market is truly insane. I thought the precon base prices were absurd, but the resale market isn't much better. A mid unit townhome in Kanata Lakes (great location and photos looked great as well) just sold for 572k. Townhomes may start hitting 600k before shock and novelty of them hitting 500k wears off.

Since we have some insiders here who know sold prices. I'll go fishing as well. Could anyone tell me what 201 Rover st in Stittsville sold for? I thought it was a little overpriced at 630k for a 2+1 bed bungalow on a corner lot but sold promptly. Thanks

listed and sold for same - $639,900

wiab89 wrote: ↑ Since we have some insiders here who know sold prices. I'll go fishing as well. Could anyone tell me what 201 Rover st in Stittsville sold for? I thought it was a little overpriced at 630k for a 2+1 bed bungalow on a corner lot but sold promptly. Thanks

suburb bungalows are almost never sold above asking.

Why isn't there more development in the areas north west of Kanata (Dunrobin, Kinburn, Fitzroy, etc)?

There's a whole swath of land there that doesn't really have much on it, and it's not protected/greenbelt either.

The new devs are better off close to a city for reusing the existing infrastructures. So even cities like CP or Anprior are better than middle of nowhere.

Tadalafil wrote: ↑ This market is truly insane. I thought the precon base prices were absurd, but the resale market isn't much better. A mid unit townhome in Kanata Lakes (great location and photos looked great as well) just sold for 572k. Townhomes may start hitting 600k before shock and novelty of them hitting 500k wears off.

It's obviously speculators who don't live in the city, and it continues to make my blood boil. It's not sustainable. Not sustainable for the people who live in this city, anyway.

annoyedenoughtoregister wrote: ↑ It's obviously speculators who don't live in the city, and it continues to make my blood boil. It's not sustainable. Not sustainable for the people who live in this city, anyway.

I also don't think the pace of increase is sustainable as well. My head is still spinning trying to comprehend how it got to this point in the first place.

I don't know who ended up buying this place, and what they intend to do with it. I doubt it was bought as an investment/speculation though. Buyers overpaying above comps are mostly those looking for a place to live, and fall in love with the property. They lose out on few offers, or sometimes over a dozen. They are fatigued and frustrated as they can't get anything else done since all their free time is spent on looking at and losing out on houses. They come across one that is nicely updated, and then think to themselves that this is the one and they are done spending all their evenings and weekends looking at houses. Add in the sometimes unethical buy side agent who is frustrated as well and just wants to get a sale to move on. With a slight nudge, the buyer then instructs the agent to write a non conditional bid for the maximum amount that their lender approved them for.

I lost out on numerous multiple offers in 2018 and 2019 (I don't even bother trying to buy now) to buyers like this. In the end I only looked at houses that were fugly in the listing photos as emotional buyers like the ones described above don't get overly emotional when the flooring and the kitchen is fugly. That being said though, even the dumbest overpays that I saw last year are looking like decent buys right now lol. We are in a market where you could have made the dumbest purchase 6 months ago but you would be bailed out by the market appreciation.

^ you nailed it. FOMO drives the prices higher.

There are many factors that need to be taken into consideration here about the price rise of houses. The demand is high not just due to investors that are doing the weekend drives to the city but many have moved to the city due to the higher number of jobs created in last 4 years. see the increase in traffic in the last 4 years not just in downtown but any where you go Orleans, Kanata everywhere you see more people now. Calgary has seen a huge downtrend in the job market, not that the people who lost the jobs there are moving to Ottawa but the people that used to move out of Ottawa for jobs in places like Calgary has reduced significantly.

Will be appreciated for sold price on 32 Balding Cres. Kanata. Thanks!