Real Estate

Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

  • Last Updated:
  • Jan 19th, 2021 2:19 pm
Deal Addict
May 23, 2017
1011 posts
779 upvotes
Interesting article, points out that many people who are still getting paid their regular income are saving lots of money now during the COVID-19 fiasco which may be helping them reach financial goals such as buying a house sooner:

https://business.financialpost.com/pers ... avings/amp

"The other 50 per cent of their newly freed up cash flow is being earmarked for spending projects, with many clients moving up financial goals that were originally two to five years away. Some are building up downpayment funds faster than they initially intended so that they can purchase a first home while others are preparing to accelerate plans to buy their second."
Member
May 6, 2012
360 posts
212 upvotes
KANATA
jk9088 wrote: Interesting article, points out that many people who are still getting paid their regular income are saving lots of money now during the COVID-19 fiasco which may be helping them reach financial goals such as buying a house sooner:

https://business.financialpost.com/pers ... avings/amp

"The other 50 per cent of their newly freed up cash flow is being earmarked for spending projects, with many clients moving up financial goals that were originally two to five years away. Some are building up downpayment funds faster than they initially intended so that they can purchase a first home while others are preparing to accelerate plans to buy their second."
No kidding. Daycare alone saves me 1000 bucks per month. But I rather spend it :)
Deal Addict
May 23, 2017
1011 posts
779 upvotes
Same, our expenses are down (mostly from not eating out or doing anything fun), several mortgage payments way down thanks to the massive interest rate cuts, and our income actually higher than if no COVID-19 (spouse works in healthcare).

Will be interesting to see if there are more home buyers driving up demand once this is over. Anecdotally I know some first-time home buyers who were previously thinking of buying but are more serious now as they think they finally might be able to find a good deal in this environment.
Member
May 6, 2012
360 posts
212 upvotes
KANATA
jk9088 wrote: Same, our expenses are down (mostly from not eating out or doing anything fun), several mortgage payments way down thanks to the massive interest rate cuts, and our income actually higher than if no COVID-19 (spouse works in healthcare).

Will be interesting to see if there are more home buyers driving up demand once this is over. Anecdotally I know some first-time home buyers who were previously thinking of buying but are more serious now as they think they finally might be able to find a good deal in this environment.
Yeah, first timers do that, trying to time the market
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2014
830 posts
295 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
skeet50 wrote: It looks like condo prices peaked last month and are down 11.3% from March while residential prices peaked Feb and are down 7.5% from Feb.

I'm thinking that we won't see the true effects of COVID-19 until the Fall. The next couple of months we will have to weather business bankruptcy, permanent job losses, the end of the CERB, and the end of all the mortgage and loan deferrals. We could possibly see a flood of listings by the Fall which could drive down prices even more.
i keep reading that real estate effects are felt about 6 months after the financial event itself. i'm curious to see what happens.

ottawa april stats are a lot stronger than i thought.
Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2014
830 posts
295 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
jk9088 wrote: Same, our expenses are down (mostly from not eating out or doing anything fun), several mortgage payments way down thanks to the massive interest rate cuts, and our income actually higher than if no COVID-19 (spouse works in healthcare).

Will be interesting to see if there are more home buyers driving up demand once this is over. Anecdotally I know some first-time home buyers who were previously thinking of buying but are more serious now as they think they finally might be able to find a good deal in this environment.
most of the potential buyers i know are a lot more interested in houses now because they don't want to get stuck in an apartment ever again.
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2009
1263 posts
919 upvotes
Ottawa
fisher44 wrote: i keep reading that real estate effects are felt about 6 months after the financial event itself. i'm curious to see what happens.

ottawa april stats are a lot stronger than i thought.
In this case, it is also the deferrals. We shall see how much of the unemployment is recovered before the deferrals are finished. If the majority of people deferring payments get their jobs back or spouse does, the effect will be dramatically muted because the can will have been kicked many years down the road (depending on how many years left on the mortgage).
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2017
3619 posts
2974 upvotes
fisher44 wrote: i keep reading that real estate effects are felt about 6 months after the financial event itself. i'm curious to see what happens.

ottawa april stats are a lot stronger than i thought.
I'm curious too. I'm actually surprised by April stats as I thought that the prices would be higher. I wasn't expecting such a drop in prices so quickly. We haven't had a lot of inventory on the market for a while now which generally keeps demand high. And, most sellers generally take months to drop prices. This monthly drop is more than anything we experienced in the 2012-16 Federal layoffs.

It'll be interesting to see how the year unfolds.
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2009
1263 posts
919 upvotes
Ottawa
skeet50 wrote: I'm curious too. I'm actually surprised by April stats as I thought that the prices would be higher. I wasn't expecting such a drop in prices so quickly. We haven't had a lot of inventory on the market for a while now which generally keeps demand high. And, most sellers generally take months to drop prices. This monthly drop is more than anything we experienced in the 2012-16 Federal layoffs.

It'll be interesting to see how the year unfolds.
Likely a combo of less desirable houses on the market (less premium), investors/renovators not wanting to not have access to workers and supplies and credit, just less traffic all around (lower number of offers, less back and forth between bids), inspectors inspection less houses because of the extra precautions, and sellers taking bully offers out of fear (lower sale price than waiting - anecdotally, saw two houses sell for >5% less than what they would had if they had waited for the offer date as per their listings).
Deal Guru
User avatar
Jun 28, 2003
10209 posts
3290 upvotes
Ottawa
Just anecdotally but we put in 2 offers last month, at the height of the pandemic. We lost out on the first one and there were only 3 offers in total. Our conditional offer for the 2nd one was accepted but we walked away after inspection so the bidding wars of last year and earlier this year might have cooled.

I am starting to see more inventory on the market now as the government at all levels are slowly easing up the restrictions.
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Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2014
830 posts
295 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
skeet50 wrote: I'm curious too. I'm actually surprised by April stats as I thought that the prices would be higher. I wasn't expecting such a drop in prices so quickly. We haven't had a lot of inventory on the market for a while now which generally keeps demand high. And, most sellers generally take months to drop prices. This monthly drop is more than anything we experienced in the 2012-16 Federal layoffs.

It'll be interesting to see how the year unfolds.
the monthly drop doesn't worry me too much - ottawa real estate was doing incredibly well right before the pandemic, so you have to take that into context when assessing a sudden gain or loss. it's like when you read about how the april rebound in stocks is the best on record. i mean, sure, i guess that's right, but coming on the heels of a terrible crash that isn't really saying much. you can spin most stats however you want.

year over year we're still up like 6% which is a lot better than i expected. once inventory comes back into play we'll get a much better idea of where we are.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2710 posts
931 upvotes
Those who sold in April are probably the one who needed to sell. And those who doesn't need to sell probably held their prices or not even bother listing the property.

As we move into Phase 2 of reopening the economy and departments start implementing their Business Resumption Plans, I expects the market to normalize by June. Civil servants will start heading back to work and restaurants will probably start reopening with limited capacity. Because this was a Government induced recession, the recovery really depends on how fast they flick the switches back on. And so far, I think we are on or ahead of schedule judging by the prices of crude oil and how Bay Street rebound off its March lows.

Don't know about other cities, but I think Ottawa should be fine. After all, departments only have 9 months to deliver their 12 months worth of mandates. I expect the contractors as well as the Temp Help agency to be really busy this fall and winter as HR struggle to process the backlog of hirings.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1866 posts
888 upvotes
William W wrote: Those who sold in April are probably the one who needed to sell. And those who doesn't need to sell probably held their prices or not even bother listing the property.

As we move into Phase 2 of reopening the economy and departments start implementing their Business Resumption Plans, I expects the market to normalize by June. Civil servants will start heading back to work and restaurants will probably start reopening with limited capacity. Because this was a Government induced recession, the recovery really depends on how fast they flick the switches back on. And so far, I think we are on or ahead of schedule judging by the prices of crude oil and how Bay Street rebound off its March lows.

Don't know about other cities, but I think Ottawa should be fine. After all, departments only have 9 months to deliver their 12 months worth of mandates. I expect the contractors as well as the Temp Help agency to be really busy this fall and winter as HR struggle to process the backlog of hirings.
Until a vaccine is available and everyone in the whole world gets it, certain industries and cities will continue to have a hard time. Tourism, aviation, and oil are among the obvious. I think Ottawa airport's lack of activity, and Ontario's lack of oil is probably a blessing during this pandemic. All the civil servants and tech workers would be forced to stay closer to home and spend their vacation dollars closer to home.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 26, 2004
2710 posts
931 upvotes
BlueSolstice wrote: Until a vaccine is available and everyone in the whole world gets it, certain industries and cities will continue to have a hard time. Tourism, aviation, and oil are among the obvious. I think Ottawa airport's lack of activity, and Ontario's lack of oil is probably a blessing during this pandemic. All the civil servants and tech workers would be forced to stay closer to home and spend their vacation dollars closer to home.
Like others have said on this thread, a lot of civil servants probably save a lot of money during this pandemic.

For those who wish to upgrade, I think this event probably gave them a good excuse to get the home they always wanted as they will be doing a lot more "staycation" until they find a vaccine.
Member
Jan 29, 2020
402 posts
391 upvotes
Always a good time to buy! Can't lose money in real estate! Price-to-income and price-to-rent are irrelevant! This time it's different!
Newbie
Apr 27, 2020
19 posts
2 upvotes
Looking into getting a rental property for investment. Which builder or community would you recommend? Was waiting for prices to drop but doesn't seem like that's happening anytime soon. Had my eyes on Arcadia by Minto
Edenwylde
Barrhaven by Mattamy
Valecraft
But Minto and Mattamy reviews are quite discouraging.
Member
May 6, 2012
360 posts
212 upvotes
KANATA
MSparrow wrote: Looking into getting a rental property for investment. Which builder or community would you recommend? Was waiting for prices to drop but doesn't seem like that's happening anytime soon. Had my eyes on Arcadia by Minto
Edenwylde
Barrhaven by Mattamy
Valecraft
But Minto and Mattamy reviews are quite discouraging.
Focus on location. Builder's name is the least thing to worry for investment
Deal Guru
User avatar
Jun 28, 2003
10209 posts
3290 upvotes
Ottawa
MSparrow wrote: Looking into getting a rental property for investment. Which builder or community would you recommend? Was waiting for prices to drop but doesn't seem like that's happening anytime soon. Had my eyes on Arcadia by Minto
Edenwylde
Barrhaven by Mattamy
Valecraft
But Minto and Mattamy reviews are quite discouraging.
Make sure you run some numbers beforehand to ensure the property will cash flow. I don't know what type of properties you are eyeing (village towns, freehold towns, detached etc) and I have not kept up to date with builder's prices but I have seen people advertising detached homes for rent for about $2,500. Townhomes rental runs about $1,850 - $2K in both Barrhaven and Kanata (from the postings that I am seeing anyway).

Don't forget to budget for property taxes and other expenses. Good luck with your hunt!
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