Real Estate

Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

  • Last Updated:
  • Mar 27th, 2024 9:53 pm
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7429 posts
4676 upvotes
Ottawa
Cashforlife wrote: I was looking at condos in February and early March because I needed a place in Ottawa at that time. I looked again today and I noticed that prices in the downtown/Hintonburg/Westboro area are down quite dramatically. Some of the same units never moved and are relisted at a much lower price point.

Example: 360 Patricia, unit 818 MLS 1206082. This is a very small condo with an unusual geometry (curved window that makes it hard to place furniture). The island is so close to the sink that you almost can't open the dishwasher door fully.

That unit was advertised over $625k according to my memory, now $500k. The owner attempted to rent it at the time but was unsuccessful.

Across the street, identical units that sold in February in the high 5xx range, are advertised for $75k less.

In the areas I was looking, it was hard to find a unit you'd actually want to live in, in my budget that started with a "5". Now you can find livable places for that price, all day long.

...

You can't generalized based on one listing. The unit mentioned as originally listed at $599k in January 2020 and hasn't sold and it's been slowly being reduced in price. Without knowing much about it, I suspect that it was just listed too high to being with. Looking on MLS at the area, I see one condo (2bd/2bat at 101 Richmond) that sold for $535k and that's the only sale on MLS above $500k since the start of the year (this wouldn't include sales outside MLS). It could be that it was a special unit or it could be that the buyer overpaid and there really isn't any demand for condos of that price in that neighborhood. (There's another 2bd/2ba at 101 Richmond just listed at $550k).
Sr. Member
Jan 29, 2020
526 posts
496 upvotes
Nah, there were several condos in the 3-building complex across the street (south side of Richmond) that sold in February in the high-500s. The one you mentioned at 101 Richmond that you said transacted at $535k is *identical* to those ones. I know the layout because I recognize it from touring the higher priced units. I recall the listings being through purple bricks.

I claim the transaction prices in that building are down at least 10% since February.

I think there is more condo construction going on now behind that complex, which would be noisy so you'd be thinking about whether you wanted to buy there right now. Also, the additional supply of similar units would have to be taken into consideration if you were thinking about potential gains.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7429 posts
4676 upvotes
Ottawa
Cashforlife wrote: Nah, there were several condos in the 3-building complex across the street (south side of Richmond) that sold in February in the high-500s. The one you mentioned at 101 Richmond that you said transacted at $535k is *identical* to those ones. I know the layout because I recognize it from touring the higher priced units. I recall the listings being through purple bricks.
...
They could have sold outside MLS but on the MLS system, these are all the condo apartment sales in that area since the start of the year:

ML# St D/N Address List Price List Date Sold Price Sold Date Type S Type Style Type BdsAG Bds Bths #Gar CDOM
1 1197089 S 5002 108 RICHMOND RD #206 $389,900 2020-07-02 $386,000 2020-08-19 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 48 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
2 1200019 S 5002 108 RICHMOND RD #710 $359,000 2020-07-17 $350,000 2020-08-14 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 28 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
3 1204620 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #607 $385,000 2020-08-12 $388,000 2020-08-13 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 1 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
4 1203772 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #616 $399,000 2020-07-31 $395,000 2020-08-12 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 12 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
5 1201052 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #403 $349,900 2020-07-23 $345,000 2020-07-31 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
6 1201211 S 5002 323 WINONA AVE #103 $449,900 2020-07-22 $437,500 2020-07-31 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 2 0 9 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
7 1200697 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #509 $398,900 2020-07-24 $395,000 2020-07-26 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 2 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
8 1199658 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #717 $399,900 2020-07-09 $377,000 2020-07-23 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 14 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
9 1198654 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #410 $499,000 2020-07-03 $535,000 2020-07-09 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 6 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
10 1196527 S 5002 88 RICHMOND RD #309 $395,000 2020-06-25 $425,000 2020-07-03 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 2 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
11 1196101 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #218 $424,000 2020-06-14 $415,000 2020-06-29 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 15 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
12 1196596 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #405 $380,000 2020-06-18 $396,100 2020-06-19 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 1 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
13 1194696 S 5002 360 PATRICIA AVE #305 $349,900 2020-06-04 $376,305 2020-06-12 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
14 1189068 S 5002 88 RICHMOND RD #203 $429,000 2020-04-17 $422,000 2020-06-03 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 47 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
15 1191842 S 5002 88 RICHMOND RD #610 $418,000 2020-05-08 $418,000 2020-05-18 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 10 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
16 1192178 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #111 $399,900 2020-05-12 $400,000 2020-05-12 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 0 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
17 1190737 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #418 $375,000 2020-04-29 $395,000 2020-05-05 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 6 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
18 1187122 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #219 $485,000 2020-03-22 $485,000 2020-03-27 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 5 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
19 1185998 S 5002 101 RICHMOND RD #615 $399,900 2020-03-13 $440,000 2020-03-21 RES CON APT OTHER 2 2 1 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
20 1178335 S 5002 323 WINONA AVE #208 $469,900 2020-01-15 $468,000 2020-01-29 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 14 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
21 1179232 S 5002 108 RICHMOND RD #309 $350,000 2020-01-22 $407,000 2020-01-24 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 2 1 2 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
2011 posts
1030 upvotes
If downtown condos are soft, that means sub-urban condos (really old condo town and stacked towns) are on fire, because condo MOI is currently lower than freehold MOI. Anecdotally, that seems to be true. I guess "starter home" is now a stacked town in Kanata/Barrhaven/Orleans, or a executive town in Carleton Place/Richmond/Rockland.
Sr. Member
Jan 29, 2020
526 posts
496 upvotes
Thanks for posting that. According to the emails I had from my agent at the time, 98 Richmond #306 sold for $585k around third week of February. 2 br/2bath. Same complex. Does not seem to be in your list? There were others I looked at in that complex, in February, and I can tell you 100% that they transacted around the same price.

There was another building I was looking hard at, 575 Byron but it was about $100k more than I thought reasonable. I would show up at open houses but I would always find out that the place sold in hours, not days and they were only having the open house because the deal wasn't totally final. I wonder if it's superheated like that, today.

I am wondering how all the small shops and restaurants on the Westboro retail strip, which were so attractive to me at the time, made out. There was actually life there after work hours, unlike downtown. I remember counting the ones that I thought were marginal even in boom times, there were a lot of them. I wonder how many storefronts are boarded up today?
Deal Guru
User avatar
Jun 28, 2003
12181 posts
5650 upvotes
Ottawa
Cashforlife wrote: Thanks for posting that. According to the emails I had from my agent at the time, 98 Richmond #306 sold for $585k around third week of February. 2 br/2bath. Same complex. Does not seem to be in your list? There were others I looked at in that complex, in February, and I can tell you 100% that they transacted around the same price.

There was another building I was looking hard at, 575 Byron but it was about $100k more than I thought reasonable. I would show up at open houses but I would always find out that the place sold in hours, not days and they were only having the open house because the deal wasn't totally final. I wonder if it's superheated like that, today.

I am wondering how all the small shops and restaurants on the Westboro retail strip, which were so attractive to me at the time, made out. There was actually life there after work hours, unlike downtown. I remember counting the ones that I thought were marginal even in boom times, there were a lot of them. I wonder how many storefronts are boarded up today?
You can just take a little drive/stroll and that should answer all of your questions :). I know it is a technicality but these condos that you are referring to on Richmond is borderline Westboro, more on the Wellington Village side.

I have never been a big fan of condos, from both a primary and investment perspective, but I do understand their purpose and how they suit the needs for many folks.

Best of luck with your decision!
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7429 posts
4676 upvotes
Ottawa
Cashforlife wrote: Thanks for posting that. According to the emails I had from my agent at the time, 98 Richmond #306 sold for $585k around third week of February. 2 br/2bath. Same complex. Does not seem to be in your list? There were others I looked at in that complex, in February, and I can tell you 100% that they transacted around the same price.

There was another building I was looking hard at, 575 Byron but it was about $100k more than I thought reasonable. I would show up at open houses but I would always find out that the place sold in hours, not days and they were only having the open house because the deal wasn't totally final. I wonder if it's superheated like that, today.

I am wondering how all the small shops and restaurants on the Westboro retail strip, which were so attractive to me at the time, made out. There was actually life there after work hours, unlike downtown. I remember counting the ones that I thought were marginal even in boom times, there were a lot of them. I wonder how many storefronts are boarded up today?
Actually, you're right about 98 Richmond. I'm not familiar with the area but based on the address it appears close but it's in a different neighborhood on MLS as Patricia Ave and 101 Richmond (5003 vs 5002). (I had only searched 5002 above)

In that neighborhood there have been several > $500k sales (last one a bit over 2 weeks ago). At the moment there are also one in 88 Richmond for $595k and one in 98 Richmond for $569k so it looks like that area could be a bit more expensive but I'm really not familiar with them (although it could also simply be the size of the units; most of the ones above were 1 bds).

ML# St D/N Address List Price List Date Sold Price Sold Date Type S Type Style Type BdsAG Bds Bths #Gar CDOM
1 1205348 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #602 $398,800 2020-08-14 $430,000 2020-08-18 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 2 1 4 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
2 1203782 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #811 $539,000 2020-08-03 $530,000 2020-08-17 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 14 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
3 1203448 S 5003 108 RICHMOND RD #501 $549,900 2020-07-30 $553,000 2020-08-06 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 7 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
4 1202970 S 5003 682 CHURCHILL AVE S #103 $398,800 2020-07-27 $408,500 2020-08-05 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 9 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
5 1200823 S 5003 711 CHURCHILL AVE #201 $325,000 2020-07-17 $330,000 2020-08-05 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 1 0 19 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
6 1195014 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #605 $424,900 2020-06-05 $415,000 2020-07-29 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 54 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
7 1188024 S 5003 711 CHURCHILL AVE #301 $379,000 2020-04-03 $373,000 2020-07-24 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 1 0 112 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
8 1199734 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #305 $419,900 2020-07-21 $436,000 2020-07-22 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 1 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
9 1197552 S 5003 108 RICHMOND RD #412 $569,900 2020-06-24 $560,000 2020-07-16 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 22 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
10 1197598 S 5003 682 CHURCHILL AVE N #310 $399,900 2020-06-25 $400,000 2020-07-15 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 20 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
11 1197235 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #512 $595,000 2020-06-26 $599,500 2020-07-10 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 14 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
12 1187874 S 5003 101 RICHMOND RD #201 $449,000 2020-06-03 $445,000 2020-06-26 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 23 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
13 1196255 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #401 $569,900 2020-06-17 $560,000 2020-06-20 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 3 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
14 1194941 S 5003 108 RICHMOND RD #610 $349,000 2020-06-05 $349,000 2020-06-15 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 10 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
15 1192500 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #614 $340,000 2020-05-21 $336,000 2020-06-05 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 15 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
16 1192024 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #811 $379,900 2020-05-25 $401,900 2020-06-01 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 7 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
17 1190456 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #610 $424,900 2020-05-19 $424,000 2020-05-27 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
18 1190578 S 5003 108 RICHMOND RD #608 $399,900 2020-05-01 $420,000 2020-05-09 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 8 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit Multimedia
19 1187030 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #606 $584,900 2020-03-20 $580,000 2020-05-08 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 49 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
20 1181415 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #306 $599,900 2020-01-30 $585,000 2020-02-27 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 2 28 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
21 1180092 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #511 $499,900 2020-01-28 $495,000 2020-02-06 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 28 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
22 1175662 S 5003 98 RICHMOND RD #406 $535,000 2019-11-19 $525,000 2020-02-06 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 212 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
23 1178687 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #607 $499,900 2020-01-10 $495,000 2020-02-05 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 26 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
24 1178322 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #209 $399,995 2020-01-06 $390,000 2020-01-28 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 1 1 1 1 22 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
25 1178289 S 5003 88 RICHMOND RD #613 $499,900 2020-01-06 $499,900 2020-01-26 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 1 61 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
26 1178387 S 5003 108 RICHMOND RD #110 $449,900 2020-01-07 $445,000 2020-01-21 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 1 1 88 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
27 1178876 S 5003 711 CHURCHILL AVE N #203 $409,000 2020-01-14 $424,789 2020-01-17 RES CON APT 1LEVEL 2 2 2 0 3 Geowarehouse Full Display WebForms 2019 Transaction Kit
Last edited by michelb on Aug 20th, 2020 10:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 10, 2014
1278 posts
3034 upvotes
Ottawa, ON
Looking at listings in Westboro, and it seems like the newly built semis are now listed for 1.3mil+, and newly built detached start at 2mil+.

I'm curious to what kind of buyer pool exist for this price range in Ottawa for homes well in the 7 figures. I guess it would be a combination of successful business owners, early/senior tech employees, and professionals at the peak of their profession. Not sure how many of them exist in Ottawa, but it seems like there are enough of them for these properties to move. Any realtors here specializing in high end homes, or any residents in nice parts of central Ottawa that know more about these buyers?
Newbie
Dec 10, 2007
52 posts
40 upvotes
Stuntman2625 wrote: Just wondering what people's thoughts here are on Pineglen neighbourhood and how its prices might move compared to the rest of the city in the future? My wife and I have been checking it out a lot recently and love the massive lots and trees, but you rarely see new listings there for whatever reason. I feel like the more the city moves towards multi unit houses, the more valuable somewhat centrally located neighbourhoods with actual yards like Pineglen will become. I was biking around Westboro the other day and there seems to be quite a few signs complaining about all the new multi unit builds going up recently.
As someone who just moved to Grenfell Glen last year, which is the same kind of community as Pineglen (mostly 100'x150' treed lots on well & septic) on the other side of Merivale on the north side of the RR tracks, it's amazing. All custom built homes in the 60's...no one ever leaves. I'm surrounded by people that have lived in this neighborhood for 30-40+ years. That's probably the main reason you don't see many new listings is that people buy, move here, and stay until they can't take care of the property anymore. And yeah, I think as we live in a COVID world, the appeal of not being right on top of your neighbors and having a lot of land to make a nice livable outdoor space is only going to grow. There's only been one house for sale in Grenfell since we moved in, a couple of months ago, and it sold for $125K over ask. Don't let the well and septic scare you off. The well water in this part of the city is excellent, and the neighborhood is built on a sand dune so septic drainage is also excellent. There is one OCTranspo bus for Pineglen/Grenfell Glen/Merivale Gardens that runs only during rush hours and takes you to Algonquin station. 4 buses in the morning and 6 in the afternoon. They are almost always deserted.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7429 posts
4676 upvotes
Ottawa
Tadalafil wrote: Looking at listings in Westboro, and it seems like the newly built semis are now listed for 1.3mil+, and newly built detached start at 2mil+.

I'm curious to what kind of buyer pool exist for this price range in Ottawa for homes well in the 7 figures. I guess it would be a combination of successful business owners, early/senior tech employees, and professionals at the peak of their profession. Not sure how many of them exist in Ottawa, but it seems like there are enough of them for these properties to move. Any realtors here specializing in high end homes, or any residents in nice parts of central Ottawa that know more about these buyers?
I'm always wondering the same thing. We live close to Rothwell Heights (which isn't even that exclusive) and it seems there are homes selling for $1M to 3M almost every week. I have no idea how there are so many buyers for these - especially since there are a lot of pockets of 7 figure homes in the city. It's not as if it's just one spot.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Jun 28, 2003
12181 posts
5650 upvotes
Ottawa
I saw a video on TikTok so I thought I would try to replicate it here, from a rental screening perspective ;)

Out of 100 people who inquired about your property for rent, at least 50 won't answer again after the typical cringy *Is it available*, from either Kijiji or FB or whatever platforms the house is being advertised on. That leaves us with 50 semi-serious prospective tenants.

Out of these 50 semi-serious prospective tenants, 25 won't provide more information for what I call *pre-showing screening* e.g occupation, how many people will live here, preferred move-in date, pets, parking requirements etc so that leaves us with 25 serious candidates.

Out of these 25 serious candidates who book appointment to see the place, at least half (12) won't proceed to the next stage (application) because they don't bother to show up to see the place or don't think the place is suitable for them or maybe they find a better place elsewhere. That leaves us with 12 solid candidates.

Out of these 12 solid candidates who actually complete a rental application , at least half (6) won't proceed to the next stage (lease signing) for a variety of reasons (bad credit score, questionable references/discrepancies in employment history or they simply change their mind at the last minute and do not wish to proceed)

Out of the 6 most serious candidates, at least half (3) will not come up with first and last and/or simply drop out for whatever reasons. That leaves us with about 3 who pass all the tests and are ready to sign a lease for a new beginning!

On that note, quite a few prospective tenants told me their landlords are selling so they need to find new accommodation. Many of these are long-term tenants so my guess is the landlords want to cash out and not because they want to get rid of troublesome tenants. Fun times!
Sr. Member
Feb 8, 2015
656 posts
734 upvotes
Kanata
Tadalafil wrote: Looking at listings in Westboro, and it seems like the newly built semis are now listed for 1.3mil+, and newly built detached start at 2mil+.

I'm curious to what kind of buyer pool exist for this price range in Ottawa for homes well in the 7 figures. I guess it would be a combination of successful business owners, early/senior tech employees, and professionals at the peak of their profession. Not sure how many of them exist in Ottawa, but it seems like there are enough of them for these properties to move. Any realtors here specializing in high end homes, or any residents in nice parts of central Ottawa that know more about these buyers?
michelb wrote: I'm always wondering the same thing. We live close to Rothwell Heights (which isn't even that exclusive) and it seems there are homes selling for $1M to 3M almost every week. I have no idea how there are so many buyers for these - especially since there are a lot of pockets of 7 figure homes in the city. It's not as if it's just one spot.

How about the couple that bought a home for $300K several years ago that is worth $450K now?

There should be $225,000 in equity alone. Add $75,000 or so to the savings on top and that is $300K in potential future downpayment.

Say they are a combination of CS02s/CS03s and there should be $200K in income combined.

According to CMHC: $200K income with $300K down gets you up to $1.9 million @ 2% interest rates.

Obviously in my example, you would be r*tarded to stretch yourself that far, but said couple could very easily afford a $1.3-1.4 million home.

A couple that is team leader/management positions (household income @ 250K+) could very easily afford a $1.9 million home.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
4520 posts
3685 upvotes
Ottawa
BlueSolstice wrote: If downtown condos are soft, that means sub-urban condos (really old condo town and stacked towns) are on fire, because condo MOI is currently lower than freehold MOI. Anecdotally, that seems to be true. I guess "starter home" is now a stacked town in Kanata/Barrhaven/Orleans, or a executive town in Carleton Place/Richmond/Rockland.
This is true to some extent. I don't think overall they are soft, just softer. Also the mix is going more expensive and towards larger units. In terms of MOI I'm not sure what it is downtown but I think it also might not be that bad but this reflects less listings rather than strong demand. Two units I was tracking were dropped from MLS. I looked for their sale price but they were simply withdrawn. This is pure speculation but I think some downtown condo owners read about a market on fire and won't accept offers that might reflect market value.
Sr. Member
Jan 12, 2007
546 posts
502 upvotes
Orleans
michelb wrote: I'm always wondering the same thing. We live close to Rothwell Heights (which isn't even that exclusive) and it seems there are homes selling for $1M to 3M almost every week. I have no idea how there are so many buyers for these - especially since there are a lot of pockets of 7 figure homes in the city. It's not as if it's just one spot.
Shopify has over 1000 employees in Ottawa.
The stock has gone up 800% in the last 18 months. Not even counting any employee stock options.

I have a feeling there are dozens - if not hundreds - of new millionaires in Ottawa from that one company alone.

The rest are a combination of business owners, professionals, and dual income households with 2 higher end federal workers.
Sprinkle in people "downsizing" from Toronto, and you've got a fairly strong market for the upper end.

Supply is low across the board, including high end. Rideau Forest historically has 25-30 listings over $1M at any given time. Right now there are only 9 for sale in the newer side, and only 1 is under $2M.
Deal Fanatic
Jul 4, 2004
7429 posts
4676 upvotes
Ottawa
garmium wrote: How about the couple that bought a home for $300K several years ago that is worth $450K now?

There should be $225,000 in equity alone. Add $75,000 or so to the savings on top and that is $300K in potential future downpayment.

Say they are a combination of CS02s/CS03s and there should be $200K in income combined.

According to CMHC: $200K income with $300K down gets you up to $1.9 million @ 2% interest rates.

Obviously in my example, you would be r*tarded to stretch yourself that far, but said couple could very easily afford a $1.3-1.4 million home.

A couple that is team leader/management positions (household income @ 250K+) could very easily afford a $1.9 million home.
That's a good point although, playing devil's advocate, at the moment the CS02/CS03 scenerio isn't completely accurate; CS02 tops out at $86k, CS03 tops out at $103k so the combined is $190k but that's only if they are at the top step (which many aren't) so a more typical would likely be combined $175k but from that, they pay 10% into the pension so the combined gross is under $160k after pension (and then there is still income tax and various deductions). But you're correct that a couple with 2 Fed Employees might be close to $200k (although I think avg pay of Fed Employee is around $65k so an average couple would be $130k so under $120k gross after pension deduction). Also, I don't know how accurate it is to think that the average couple making $130k would have $300k available for a downpayment. The scenario you proposed is certainly possible but I'm not sure how likely it is (just depends on how they timed it).

But even in your scenario, a couple with a combined income of $200k could buy a $1.2M home but the ownership costs would be significant and might be too much for even that couple. It would likely mean $10k+ / year in property taxes alone and a home of that size might cost another $10k / year in utility cost so that's $20k/year on top of the mortgage which is quite substancial.
97gst wrote: Shopify has over 1000 employees in Ottawa.
The stock has gone up 800% in the last 18 months. Not even counting any employee stock options.

I have a feeling there are dozens - if not hundreds - of new millionaires in Ottawa from that one company alone.

The rest are a combination of business owners, professionals, and dual income households with 2 higher end federal workers.
Sprinkle in people "downsizing" from Toronto, and you've got a fairly strong market for the upper end.

Supply is low across the board, including high end. Rideau Forest historically has 25-30 listings over $1M at any given time. Right now there are only 9 for sale in the newer side, and only 1 is under $2M.
It's true that Shopify has done incredibly well but from what I hear (I know 3 employees in Ottawa), I don't think that most employees have stock option so I think that only affects a minority of the them (although it's true that one of the three did very well with the stock options and in fact did buy a house earlier this year).

That said, other than Shopify, I don't know if there are many other companies in Ottawa that have done even close to that well and I'd be willing to wager that there are a lot more people in the city collecting CERB than those who's wealth has increased this year.
Sr. Member
Feb 8, 2015
656 posts
734 upvotes
Kanata
michelb wrote: That's a good point although, playing devil's advocate, at the moment the CS02/CS03 scenerio isn't completely accurate; CS02 tops out at $86k, CS03 tops out at $103k so the combined is $190k but that's only if they are at the top step (which many aren't) so a more typical would likely be combined $175k but from that, they pay 10% into the pension so the combined gross is under $160k after pension (and then there is still income tax and various deductions). But you're correct that a couple with 2 Fed Employees might be close to $200k (although I think avg pay of Fed Employee is around $65k so an average couple would be $130k so under $120k gross after pension deduction). Also, I don't know how accurate it is to think that the average couple making $130k would have $300k available for a downpayment. The scenario you proposed is certainly possible but I'm not sure how likely it is (just depends on how they timed it).

But even in your scenario, a couple with a combined income of $200k could buy a $1.2M home but the ownership costs would be significant and might be too much for even that couple. It would likely mean $10k+ / year in property taxes alone and a home of that size might cost another $10k / year in utility cost so that's $20k/year on top of the mortgage which is quite substancial.



It's true that Shopify has done incredibly well but from what I hear (I know 3 employees in Ottawa), I don't think that most employees have stock option so I think that only affects a minority of the them (although it's true that one of the three did very well with the stock options and in fact did buy a house earlier this year).

That said, other than Shopify, I don't know if there are many other companies in Ottawa that have done even close to that well and I'd be willing to wager that there are a lot more people in the city collecting CERB than those who's wealth has increased this year.

1. Just because homes in the area are asking $1.3 million doesn't mean every single owner living there is paying that huge mortgage. A very small percentage of homes are sold every year. My parents own a home worth $750K which they paid $300K for. I know several families who have homes worth $1million+ which they paid $400-$500K for (many years ago) and mortgages finished now.

2. I just gave you a plausible scenario of who would purchase homes at those prices: Combination of manager/director, wealthy business owners, even MPs

3. 97st mentioned Shopify employees, plus wealthy investors who were invested in Shopify definitely profited from that stock.
*imagine if you dumped $10K in 2016? It would be $500K now.


You asked for plausibility and I gave you plausibility.
Last edited by garmium on Aug 21st, 2020 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
2011 posts
1030 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote: Looking at listings in Westboro, and it seems like the newly built semis are now listed for 1.3mil+, and newly built detached start at 2mil+.

I'm curious to what kind of buyer pool exist for this price range in Ottawa for homes well in the 7 figures. I guess it would be a combination of successful business owners, early/senior tech employees, and professionals at the peak of their profession. Not sure how many of them exist in Ottawa, but it seems like there are enough of them for these properties to move. Any realtors here specializing in high end homes, or any residents in nice parts of central Ottawa that know more about these buyers?
People who moved to Ottawa from Vancouver/Toronto for a big pay bump, cashing out their home equity in the process. Property tax on a 2 million dollar home in Ottawa is manageable if you don't have a mortgage and make decent money (for Ottawa).
Sr. Member
Jan 29, 2020
526 posts
496 upvotes
Tadalafil wrote: Think "investors" looking to get in right now would be served well by reminding themselves that they are speculating instead of investing. Speculation is not necessarily a dirty word, and returns on speculation can be very handsome as seen in many markets. My personal returns so far on appreciation trumps returns from cashflow by many factor .However strategies for investing and speculating should be different, and it is best not to confuse the two.
To me, the price of the house is primarily a function of how much rent a landlord can extract from its tenants. If the house does not cash-flow, it means the asking price is disconnected from fundamentals and that situation will not persist forever. It can persist for a long time though, because real estate prices are set at the margin, and there are many irrational people.

You can tell they are irrational by the viciousness of the attacks on anyone who brings any perspective except "real estate in Ottawa can never decline in price, don't miss out, the CMHC is full of idiots, price-to-income is irrelevant, price-to-rent also" etc.
Deal Addict
Nov 13, 2013
4520 posts
3685 upvotes
Ottawa
Cashforlife wrote: To me, the price of the house is primarily a function of how much rent a landlord can extract from its tenants. If the house does not cash-flow, it means the asking price is disconnected from fundamentals and that situation will not persist forever. It can persist for a long time though, because real estate prices are set at the margin, and there are many irrational people.

You can tell they are irrational by the viciousness of the attacks on anyone who brings any perspective except "real estate in Ottawa can never decline in price, don't miss out, the CMHC is full of idiots, price-to-income is irrelevant, price-to-rent also" etc.
Yes the price of a 4-plex should reflect the rent it can bring in depending on interest rates and other investment returns. A Single Family House is an entirely different product. Many even most people have no interest in renting such a property. They only want to buy it. At the same time it is the most desirable housing situation for most families. In Vancouver the market is skewed by investors but the decision for a family is still the same they will pay more in interest and property taxes than they could rent for in some cases but a house has extra value if it's yours. Ottawa is not yet at this point, maybe it won't get there but there are really almost nobody who will sell their house and start renting.

All that said yes Ottawa is not immune or even has greater risks than other cities when we recover from the debt orgy. In fact the government is talking about a green revolution and supporting those falling behind. It is possible a lot of other government functions will be trimmed to pay for such outlays.
Sr. Member
Jan 29, 2020
526 posts
496 upvotes
I'd almost agree but single family homes where I am, in the area near the university, are priced according to how many potential bedrooms there would be for students who are willing to pay $700 per room-month. The professors who would prefer to live close to work, are priced out. So the dominant factor in pricing is the rent a landlord can get.

If you look instead to price-to-income, I'd say places like westboro are a bit frothy. I also saw a new building downtown, where as far as I could tell, the price per square foot was similar to NYC or Vancouver. That is a very high level of crazy because Ottawa is not a global centre for trade, and the weather is terrible in the winter.

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