Ottawa and Surrounding Area Real Estate market discussion

William W wrote: ↑ I think the problem with resale right now is list price means nothing. Nowadays, sold price is more or less determined by what is the maximum qualified amount of other bidders on the property.

I want to be a fly on the wall when someone who just "won" a bidding war by bidding the max on their preapproval hears from the bank that they need to come up with another 100k as the property appraised much lower than what they bid.

skeet50 wrote: ↑ Without a doubt there are bad apples in every profession. The challenge with the mortgage industry is that while the industry claims to take mortgage fraud seriously, the Home Capital/Trust fiasco in 2017 showed clearly that the industry only pays attention when mortgage defaults start to rise. I recall at that time that Home Trust attempted to lessen shareholders fears by stating that a review of the mortgages where fraud had occurred showed that the mortgages were current and up to date.

Even now during the pandemic we have seen a historical high number of mortgage holders requesting mortgage deferrals and yet mortgage lending continues to increase and is at its highest level ever. You would think with the high number of deferrals that mortgage lenders would review their lending criteria but the record high amount of mortgage lending would indicate that it didn't happen. Nothing happens until the default number starts increasing.

Is the mortgage industry governed provincially or federally? This (mortgage fraud) is white-collar crime and stiff penalties/possible jail terms need to be levied to set examples.

I know this is somewhat off-topic but money laundering was/is a HUGE issue out west in B.C. and I would not be surprised if this is happening in our city, as we speak, although not quite to that level yet.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6608644/cana ... ng-grades/

canabiz wrote: ↑ Is the mortgage industry governed provincially or federally? This (mortgage fraud) is white-collar crime and stiff penalties/possible jail terms need to be levied to set examples.

I know this is somewhat off-topic but money laundering was/is a HUGE issue out west in B.C. and I would not be surprised if this is happening in our city, as we speak, although not quite to that level yet.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6608644/cana ... ng-grades/

Federally and provincially. The big banks are under federal regs while mono lines and credit unions are under provincial regs.

All lenders will tell you that they take steps to protect and guard against it. But, as the saying goes, "watch what I do, not what I say"

I was one of the lucky ones - booked for a friend

AjayA2050 wrote: ↑ All Appointments got booked in first 5 seconds.

canabiz wrote: ↑ Is the mortgage industry governed provincially or federally? This (mortgage fraud) is white-collar crime and stiff penalties/possible jail terms need to be levied to set examples.

I know this is somewhat off-topic but money laundering was/is a HUGE issue out west in B.C. and I would not be surprised if this is happening in our city, as we speak, although not quite to that level yet.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6608644/cana ... ng-grades/

The issues with this are government regulation and federally backed financing (CMHC) which allows this to occur.

Similarly in 08 when Freddie Mac and Fannie were doling out surprise mortgages this was the result of loose government regulation and incentivizing lenders to continue the practice of hiding weakness of the underlying securities.

Guess who bailed them out? The government , i.e. the public

Guess who will be bailing out CMHC or banks if they were to become insolvent? The government, i.e. the public

ghasita wrote: ↑ I was one of the lucky ones - booked for a friend

I didn’t think that was allowed. I thought to most builders will only proceeed if initial email sent by buyer

Minto releasing Quinne’s Pointe barrhaven next Saturday,

https://www.minto.com/ottawa/new-homes/ ... s%20Ottawa

Tadalafil wrote: ↑ I want to be a fly on the wall when someone who just "won" a bidding war by bidding the max on their preapproval hears from the bank that they need to come up with another 100k as the property appraised much lower than what they bid.

Though, given in the last few months, we have been seeing jaw dropping, record breaking sold prices. I'm really curious as to how many of these situation actually happens or it is more of an urban legend where it may happen to only 0.001% of purchasers.

WGretzky wrote: ↑ I didn’t think that was allowed. I thought to most builders will only proceeed if initial email sent by buyer

I don't know the exact rules and how different builders interpret and apply them but I would imagine there maybe some leeway, particularly during these uncertain COVID times.

Say my brother wishes to reserve a lot but he is currently stranded overseas/insert your own reasons here. A family member/friend can step up and initiate contact with the builders on his behalf and handle the process/paperwork until he is physically in town and/or able to fulfill his obligations virtually. I don't think there is any issue with that, from both a legal and ethical perspective.

Anyone got the price list for Mintos release at various sites from last time? Thanks

The salesperson was nice and just asked to provide the names of all the buyers and other relevant details - so no issue in booking for my friend...I think Minto and Cardel are strict about this - other's you could manage.

canabiz wrote: ↑ I don't know the exact rules and how different builders interpret and apply them but I would imagine there maybe some leeway, particularly during these uncertain COVID times.

Say my brother wishes to reserve a lot but he is currently stranded overseas/insert your own reasons here. A family member/friend can step up and initiate contact with the builders on his behalf and handle the process/paperwork until he is physically in town and/or able to fulfill his obligations virtually. I don't think there is any issue with that, from both a legal and ethical perspective.

sonajatt wrote: ↑ Anyone got the price list for Mintos release at various sites from last time? Thanks

Which sites & models are you looking for?

jk9088 wrote: ↑ Which sites & models are you looking for?

Prefer all sites and models please, if possible.
Which areas are appreciating more vs others? Is Barrhaven more pricier compared to kanata and nepean?

sonajatt wrote: ↑ Prefer all sites and models please, if possible.
Which areas are appreciating more vs others? Is Barrhaven more pricier compared to kanata and nepean?

I saved all the pages last time but there isn't a quick & easy way to attach them here. If you want to PM me your email address, I can send them to you in a ZIP file.

Last release Quinn's Pointe was about 20k-35k cheaper than Arcadia (depending on model), but I think this is partly due to the fact that Quinn's Pointe is in a fairly remote location in Barrhaven (far south almost to Manotick) while Arcadia is very centrally located in Kanata (note that both these communities released single homes only, no townhomes in the latest release). Meanwhile townhouses in Harmony (Barrhaven) were about 32k cheaper than Morgan's Creek (Kanata), but again I think this is more due to the fact that the Morgan's Creek houses are all no-rear-neighbour so there's a premium built in. So not sure you can make any conclusions about pricing of Kanata vs. Barrhaven based on these releases. In general I've found that over the past few years new releases in Kanata vs. Barrhaven are fairly similar, depending on how desirable the community itself is. (Exception being Kanata Lakes which is always pricier of course.)

jk9088 wrote: ↑ I saved all the pages last time but there isn't a quick & easy way to attach them here. If you want to PM me your email address, I can send them to you in a ZIP file.

Last release Quinn's Pointe was about 20k-35k cheaper than Arcadia (depending on model), but I think this is partly due to the fact that Quinn's Pointe is in a fairly remote location in Barrhaven (far south almost to Manotick) while Arcadia is very centrally located in Kanata (note that both these communities released single homes only, no townhomes in the latest release). Meanwhile townhouses in Harmony (Barrhaven) were about 32k cheaper than Morgan's Creek (Kanata), but again I think this is more due to the fact that the Morgan's Creek houses are all no-rear-neighbour so there's a premium built in. So not sure you can make any conclusions about pricing of Kanata vs. Barrhaven based on these releases. In general I've found that over the past few years new releases in Kanata vs. Barrhaven are fairly similar, depending on how desirable the community itself is. (Exception being Kanata Lakes which is always pricier of course.)

jk, I have seen you referencing Quinn's Pointe and Stonebridge as *remote* and *not accessible to amenities* in various posts so I just want to let you know Metro grocery store (and other retailers) are coming to the Barrhaven South area, serving communities like Quinn's Pointe, Stonebridge, Half Moon Bay, Half Moon Bay South and the Meadows (by Tamarack) plus other new communities developed by Caivan and Glenview.

http://webcast.ottawa.ca/plan/All_Image ... 0-0102.PDF

I don't live in the area anymore so I don't stay informed with all the developments as religiously as I used to but still get the odd updates from friends and families.

^ Yes, I am quite aware there are amenities coming, but the fact remains that at this moment there really isn't anything there. In the future of course this may change. If the Barnsdale Hwy exit gets built that will also be a big plus to these communities but again, that could be years away.

I'm not at all trying to say these are not nice places to live in so please don't take it personally, I am purely commenting on these factors from a price perspective to explain to the user above who asked about it. I'm sure there are plenty of people who love living in the communities south of the Jock River, no doubt they are wonderful neighbourhoods, but the fact remains that builders are pricing these locations significantly cheaper than more "central" areas.

For example, Minto Quinn's Pointe is always priced at a significant discount compared to Harmony (sorry I can't remember the exact difference), and IIRC at one point when Caivan was releasing in both Conservancy and the Ridge, there was about a $30k discount for the Ridge. So can't deny that clearly the builders have determined people are willing to pay a higher premium for areas north of the Jock River vs. south of it. (Stonebridge is expensive but as you mentioned previously yourself, this is probably more due to the higher quality of the builds and mix of housing in the neighbourhood. When comparing apples to apples of identical models from the same builder though, the difference is clear.)

Again, I am just going on a purely numbers perspective here to give the other poster a better idea of the valuation of these locations if they are trying to compare different sites. Obviously if they are buying to live, there are other personal factors that may be more important. In no way am I trying to discourage people from buying in the cheaper areas which some may actually find to be better value.

^ For sure, I don't take it personal because I don't live in that area anymore but I am just trying to provide some balanced perspectives to future buyers and let them know what's coming down the pipes.

You are right, there could be better value, if people are willing to drive a bit now and be patient to wait for future developments to add more amenities to the neighbourhood. I didn't stay updated with Caivan's pricing on the Conservancy and the Ridge but the Ridge is closer to the Trail Road Waste Dump and putting possible environmental concerns aside as I (or none of us in this thread is) am not the authority on that, I believe that also has an impact on pricing as well.

Appreciate the many different perspectives and healthy conversations, as always. Keep 'em coming.

Here is a fun/scary thought for all the precon communities going up right now:

I posit that there will be a statistically significant difference in household incomes between newer part of the development vs. the older part of the development.

For example, take a look at the site plan for the Ridge.
https://caivan.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -01-11.pdf
Caivan is building towns east of Elevation Rd, and singles on the west. Caivan started selling off the most Northern lots first, and going further south for each subsequent release.

I remember the first release of towns in the Ridge started in the low 400s, a price that a family with an average household income in Ottawa (86k) could afford. I think the most recent release was priced in mid 600s (sold out instantly), and I am projecting the final release will be priced in the low 700s, ~300k difference from the original release price. Based on mortgage amount= 4x household income rule, you now need roughly 75k higher household income to be able to purchase the same townhouse few streets down. Families with average household income now has no chance of buying the same house.

Tadalafil wrote: ↑ Here is a fun/scary thought for all the precon communities going up right now:

I posit that there will be a statistically significant difference in household incomes between newer part of the development vs. the older part of the development.

For example, take a look at the site plan for the Ridge.
https://caivan.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -01-11.pdf
Caivan is building towns east of Elevation Rd, and singles on the west. Caivan started selling off the most Northern lots first, and going further south for each subsequent release.

I remember the first release of towns in the Ridge started in the low 400s, a price that a family with an average household income in Ottawa (86k) could afford. I think the most recent release was priced in mid 600s (sold out instantly), and I am projecting the final release will be priced in the low 700s, ~300k difference from the original release price. Based on mortgage amount= 4x household income rule, you now need roughly 75k higher household income to be able to purchase the same townhouse few streets down. Families with average household income now has no chance of buying the same house.

prob families with similar houseold income still, but definitely with different debts/monthly expenses

I don't know if there are anything structurally defective on this house, but given the current pricing of new TH in the burbs, if I am ask to buy a property in this market right now, below is the type that I will target.

https://www.redfin.ca/on/ottawa/838-Win ... /148944919

And being a lazy person, I will just rent out the entire house to a responsible individual at $2400 to $2600 per month and let the person sublease the other unit to another individual rather than dealing with 2 sets of tenants. Even doing this will cashflow better than most other properties in the burbs. And 20 years from now, the land the house sits on will be ripe for redevelopment.

Of course, I recongnize that I don't think like the mainstream buyers, but if I were to guess, that's probably the segment of the market that will play catchup as young people will need a mortgage helper if they don't want to live in a condo or a stack TH. At least that's what I did 20 years ago, live upstairs, rented out the basement and let the tenant pays for mortgage while I only picked up utilities and property tax. Looking back, those were great times as I did not have to mowed the lawn or shovel the snow as they were all partially tax deductible.