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peter shiff prediction

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  • Mar 18th, 2020 7:26 pm
[OP]
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
3989 upvotes
Toronto

peter shiff prediction

Peter shiff predicts the bond market is going to implode, USD to weaken.. US stock market going to implode.

Gold
Oil
Foreign stock markets poisd to do well.

what are your thoughts?
62 replies
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5502 posts
1952 upvotes
I say BS
implode? he's been wrong for so long.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
[OP]
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
3989 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote: I say BS
implode? he's been wrong for so long.
He is a gold bull.
I've been listening to his pod cast and he's been pretty consistent in his message.

Gold and oil have had really good performance this past year .

Everything he is saying had been spot on:
Rate rise
Inflation
USD going down

Basically shiff is saying there will be another round of QE at the current rate because no one is going to be buying bonds. Fed is going to have print money and buy government bonds and bills and devalue USD that there are few other choices at this point.

Makes sense given what's happening.
Sr. Member
Jun 10, 2013
588 posts
255 upvotes
I followed him from 2009 to 2016...Lost a lot of money in the process. I say his fundamentals are probably right but his timing is off and that nothing is really certain in the markets. There's a lot of randomness. He used to have a gold company which was a conflict of interest but I think he's relinquished it. It's the same story...If I hadn't found him, I'd probably be retired by now with the rip-roaring bull market we're in. Do I trust this is a real bull market moved by fundamentals? Nah...Take what you can. I still have gold ETFs as a hedge against destroyed equity markets and currency but it definitely lags stocks.
[OP]
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
3989 upvotes
Toronto
Hobotrader wrote: I followed him from 2009 to 2016...Lost a lot of money in the process. I say his fundamentals are probably right but his timing is off and that nothing is really certain in the markets. There's a lot of randomness. He used to have a gold company which was a conflict of interest but I think he's relinquished it. It's the same story...If I hadn't found him, I'd probably be retired by now with the rip-roaring bull market we're in. Do I trust this is a real bull market moved by fundamentals? Nah...Take what you can. I still have gold ETFs as a hedge against destroyed equity markets and currency but it definitely lags stocks.
but Peter Shiff is the first to say that though.
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2015
2694 posts
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Toronto, ON
Given the new tax changes, I don't think anyone has any idea what the market will do. You probably have a better odds of predicting with a coin toss. This is unprecedented territory.
Deal Addict
Oct 6, 2015
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He got the housing market circa 2005-2006, and its collapse right.

But listening to his podcasts recently has been painful. He goes on rants against former clients, and was just straight up in loonie tunes land the other day with his claims that there was only one way for gold to go -- straight up.

On the other hand, he was actually quite honest in a recent podcast when he claimed that account creation at his firm had basically collapsed, and money was leaving his management in droves. Not many asset managers would come out and admit publicly that their business is failing. He appears to be "all-in" on the strategies he recommends, and his own father was imprisoned by the US government.

He might be right, and I personally invest a chunk (but not all) of my money in strategies similar to his, but you have to have extreme intestinal fortitude to stay the course.
Sr. Member
Nov 13, 2011
652 posts
239 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
He's right, but it's bitcoin that's going to go up since it's the new (digital) gold
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Dec 13, 2016
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darkcloud8282 wrote: He's right, but it's bitcoin that's going to go up since it's the new (digital) gold
Hahaha. Snort
[OP]
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
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Toronto
darkcloud8282 wrote: He's right, but it's bitcoin that's going to go up since it's the new (digital) gold
i agree 100% with everything Peter Shiff has said about Bitcoin.. that it's the stupidest thing ever.

and the best analogy was this:
Buying bitcoin, is like buying a car, to invest in Ford Motor Co.

I believe 100% in the technology behind crypto currency e.g. block chain. What I don't believe in is that "bitcoin" or any other AltCoin will hold any real/true value.
[OP]
Penalty Box
Dec 27, 2013
8003 posts
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Toronto
burnt69 wrote: He got the housing market circa 2005-2006, and its collapse right.

But listening to his podcasts recently has been painful. He goes on rants against former clients, and was just straight up in loonie tunes land the other day with his claims that there was only one way for gold to go -- straight up.

On the other hand, he was actually quite honest in a recent podcast when he claimed that account creation at his firm had basically collapsed, and money was leaving his management in droves. Not many asset managers would come out and admit publicly that their business is failing. He appears to be "all-in" on the strategies he recommends, and his own father was imprisoned by the US government.

He might be right, and I personally invest a chunk (but not all) of my money in strategies similar to his, but you have to have extreme intestinal fortitude to stay the course.
he goes on 2 rants that are annoying:
1) clients that leave where he is frustrated he cant retain them
2) CnBC and ABC, not inviting him in to talk about the impending collapse.

The one about his funds losing clientele is meh... He said that even though he has lost clients, the performance of the fund has essentially kept them in the same spot.... At the end of the day guy has a networth of 70 million, so i do think he has some weight to what he says.
[OP]
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Dec 27, 2013
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dlhunter wrote: I say BS
implode? he's been wrong for so long.
Oh here is an article..

Another big name - DALIO.... bond market imploding:




Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio said that the bond market has slipped into a bear phase and warned that a rise in yields could spark the biggest crisis for fixed-income investors in almost 40 years.

“A 1 percent rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980 to 1981,” Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio said in a Bloomberg TV interview in Davos on Wednesday. We’re in a bear market, he said.

A Treasury selloff extended following Dalio’s comments, pushing 10-year yields through 2.65 percent, near the highest since mid-2014.

Dalio predicted that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy faster than they have signaled, and said that economic growth is in the late stage of the cycle but could continue to improve for another two years. The current economic environment is good for stocks but bad for bond investors, said Dalio, who’s chairman of Bridgewater, the world’s biggest hedge fund.

“It feels stupid to own cash in this kind of environment. It’s going to be great for earnings and great for stimulation of growth,” he said.

That spurt will last for about 18 months and the central bank will then feel like it has to tighten monetary policy faster than the discounted yield curve, he said. That will be a negative for asset prices, he said.

Demand for bonds will fall as central bankers reduce monetary stimulus, but larger deficits mean that governments will need to sell more of the securities to raise money, Dalio said. That supply-demand imbalance will concern the central bankers, he said.

Bridgewater manages about $160 billion, according to its website.

— With assistance by Edward Bolingbroke
Deal Fanatic
Mar 24, 2008
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alanbrenton wrote: That's weed. Can't snort digital stuff.
It's blow. Can't snort weed either. :lol:
Illegitimi non carborundum
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Apr 21, 2004
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ksgill wrote: It's blow. Can't snort weed either. :lol:
oh, haha, that's right. I was thinking of those powdered drugs.
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Jul 30, 2015
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burnt69 wrote: He got the housing market circa 2005-2006, and its collapse right.
Half the world was predicting that. Also, one good prediction doesn't mean his predictions carry more weight. What matters is a consistent record of good prediction. And I don't think any economist has that.
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Dec 27, 2013
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canoek wrote: Half the world was predicting that. Also, one good prediction doesn't mean his predictions carry more weight. What matters is a consistent record of good prediction. And I don't think any economist has that.
that's not true. half the world wasn't predicting housing market crash in 2005-2007. no one was really.
Deal Addict
Oct 6, 2015
2463 posts
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daivey wrote: he goes on 2 rants that are annoying:
1) clients that leave where he is frustrated he cant retain them
2) CnBC and ABC, not inviting him in to talk about the impending collapse.
I'd add:

3) He hates minimum wage with a fervor and actually thinks that unemployment would be eliminated if the minimum wage was eliminated.
4) He supports unrestrained immigration and an employer's right to import foreign nationals to displace Americans.

He doesn't talk about those things much anymore, but a few years back, he was so arrogant about that stuff that he'd go to the anti-Wall Street / anti-1% protests, and actually, as a 1%'er, confront the protestors.
Sr. Member
Jun 10, 2013
588 posts
255 upvotes
burnt69 wrote: I'd add:

3) He hates minimum wage with a fervor and actually thinks that unemployment would be eliminated if the minimum wage was eliminated.
4) He supports unrestrained immigration and an employer's right to import foreign nationals to displace Americans.

He doesn't talk about those things much anymore, but a few years back, he was so arrogant about that stuff that he'd go to the anti-Wall Street / anti-1% protests, and actually, as a 1%'er, confront the protestors.
What's he up to now? I stopped listening in 2015/16 ish. He might have a point with minimum wage though but he did constantly talk about it.
I think he had more arrogance when things were going well, his investment strategy hasn't really panned out as of late so maybe some humility is coming back. He'd always talk over people as well, I found that annoying way back when. You should have heard him go at it with Kiyosaki when Kiyosaki was on his show. I think he taught me that 'gurus' come and go randomly based on random events vindicating their positions (how they become famous) and how random events knock them out of relevancy only to take up new gurus that happened to have been right the one time next time. I still think he's on point with philosophy (Austrian economics) but you can't put your fortune on it because of timing.
Deal Addict
Oct 6, 2015
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Hobotrader wrote: What's he up to now?
Well aside from the almost every podcast rants against his former clients, and his ill fated "move" to Puerto Rico, not much else. He was on Alex Jones/Infowars last week, and basically is calling Alex Jones an idiot on his podcasts now. Whether that's deserved or not, I don't know, but its no surprise to me that he's not exactly a hot ticket to be on shows like CNBC.

I'm not convinced he brings anything to the table as an investment manager (over and above just buying gold and silver stock ETFs or a properly diversified basket), and some of his claims are rather grandiose and even probably bordering on the quite legally dangerous for him, such as the claim he made the other day that his clients would see their portfolios grow by 5X in the next market crash.

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