Real Estate

Predictions for Fall market

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 21st, 2020 9:14 am
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Jul 3, 2011
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Thornhill
Jimmykirky wrote: It’s interesting that even though u own two condos u would quote the city of Toronto website.

I get how the mil rate works except that everyone knows that no one is paying $3600 in taxes for a one bedroom. So the fact that you’re just reading the website and applying it like a cookie cutter to al condos shows your ignorancez
Taxes are not calculated based on the size or number of bedrooms. It is calculated based on an assessed value that is lagging by 4 years as they're assessed only every 4 years unless it is a new build.

That is to say, the 2017 taxes were based on an assessed value at January 2008 plus 2 fourths - 50% of the change in value at January 2012.

Similarly, the tax paid in 2019 was based on assessed value at January 2012 plus four fourths - 100% of the change in value between then and January 2016. ed fo

The next assessment was to be January of this year but delayed by covid. It means that when finally issued, your 2020 tax will be based on the January 2016 assessed value plus one fourth of whatever value your property is assessed at January 1, 2020. So if your property is assessed at $650,000 at January 1, 2020, and it was assessed at $550,000 in January 2016, your tax will be the mill rate which, if you're in Toronto will be .5997 just as Statsguy said. If you're in Peel or Markham or Durham or any other municipality, the mill rate is different and that is also why Statsguy was kind enough to give you the calculation.

That your taxes don't meet the $360/month simply means that the assessed values of your condo(s) are less than $700,000.

Most homeowners understand that.
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May 3, 2020
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licenced wrote: Taxes are not calculated based on the size or number of bedrooms. It is calculated based on an assessed value that is lagging by 4 years as they're assessed only every 4 years unless it is a new build.

That is to say, the 2017 taxes were based on an assessed value at January 2008 plus 2 fourths - 50% of the change in value at January 2012.

Similarly, the tax paid in 2019 was based on assessed value at January 2012 plus four fourths - 100% of the change in value between then and January 2016. ed fo

The next assessment was to be January of this year but delayed by covid. It means that when finally issued, your 2020 tax will be based on the January 2016 assessed value plus one fourth of whatever value your property is assessed at January 1, 2020. So if your property is assessed at $650,000 at January 1, 2020, and it was assessed at $550,000 in January 2016, your tax will be the mill rate which, if you're in Toronto will be .5997 just as Statsguy said. If you're in Peel or Markham or Durham or any other municipality, the mill rate is different and that is also why Statsguy was kind enough to give you the calculation.

That your taxes don't meet the $360/month simply means that the assessed values of your condo(s) are less than $700,000.

Most homeowners understand that.
I don't really follow the context of your post

To me, it seems like you're trying to imply that I don't understand taxes, maybe that's not your intention, but it seems like it...........

Statsguy's post about my tax #'s were irrelevant. It was only for him to be argumentative and disagreeable. It wasn't to add anything to the conversation.

My original cap rate calculation stands. Most 1 bedrooms are still providing a cap rate of 2.5%-3%.
Why would I use a future tax expenses, when I am calculating cap rates today? no point in a simple math exercise...
I think yall are way over thinking this for such a simple thing here. If you think my cap rates are off, cool. Do your calculation your way. But using $3600 in taxes for a $600,000 condo (1 bedroom) as per the original calculation is - in my opinion, wrong. The vast majority of condos in the $600k range (1 bedrooms) are not pay $3600 in taxes.

I'm also not sure where # of bedrooms came up as a way to figure out taxes?... we are talking cap rates of rental units, so we are going to talk about the size of the unit, the relative price to buy, and rental rates, right? So not sure what you are trying to say in your comment.

Heres my original post... what exactly do u have a problem with? my tax and maintenance and rental income estimates? Fix it for me and show what is wrong. What do you disagree with?
Despite all the negative news and with condos, rents haven't gone to $0.
Cap rates are still enticing enough.Look, condos still renting in many pockets for $2k for 1 bedrooms. Numbers don't lie, do the math:
Condo purchase price $600,000 for a 1 bedroom 600 sq ft.
Rents for $2k
maintenance $300
tax $200
insurance $50
$2,000 - $300 - $200 - $50 = $1450 net before taxes x 12 = $17,400 / $600,000 = 2.9%
that's still a pretty damn good rate of return.
Even if rents fall to $1500 for the same unit (500 less) $500 x 12 = -$6,000 = 11,400 / $600,000 = 1.9%

The elephant in the room is interest rates which will continue to impact housing costs.
Last edited by Jimmykirky on Sep 8th, 2020 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jul 19, 2003
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I suspect you have units in newer buildings that are waiting to spring up the maintenance fees, but to get good occupancy its being artificially held off.

That's my only gripe with the numbers, personally.

When I was looking at condos, plenty buildings had far higher maintenance fees.

Take a look at some of these. If you got like 400 sq ft units, or a brand new condo, sure $300 sounds right.
https://www.ratehub.ca/condo-fees#:~:te ... %20rows%20

https://precondo.ca/condo-fees-in-toronto/
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masterhapposai wrote: I suspect you have units in newer buildings that are waiting to spring up the maintenance fees, but to get good occupancy its being artificially held off.

That's my only gripe with the numbers, personally.

When I was looking at condos, plenty buildings had far higher maintenance fees.

Take a look at some of these. If you got like 400 sq ft units, or a brand new condo, sure $300 sounds right.
https://www.ratehub.ca/condo-fees#:~:te ... %20rows%20

https://precondo.ca/condo-fees-in-toronto/
my example quoted above, is not my unit. It's a fictitious unit, and was used to provide a simple backdrop of which to work with and create a rough idea of cap rates.

I think people here are missing the forest from the trees. It was not intended to be a perfect example. It's a rough average. You can go and adjust maintenance fees to whatever you feel is comfortable. Don't forget to chnage rental rates. also make sure to adjust for the purchase price.
you will find that CAP rates are still in the 2.5% range.


The example of MY rental UNIT is a page back. My maintenance fees are $375, and it's an 9 year old building. It's well managed, what can I say. Though, it will probably sky-rocket in 2021 - that is also irrelevant. We are talking cap rates right now.
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Jimmykirky wrote: my example quoted above, is not my unit. It's a fictitious unit, and was used to provide a simple backdrop of which to work with and create a rough idea of cap rates.

I think people here are missing the forest from the trees. It was not intended to be a perfect example. It's a rough average. You can go and adjust maintenance fees to whatever you feel is comfortable. Don't forget to chnage rental rates. also make sure to adjust for the purchase price.
you will find that CAP rates are still in the 2.5% range.


The example of MY rental UNIT is a page back. My maintenance fees are $375, and it's an 9 year old building. It's well managed, what can I say. Though, it will probably sky-rocket in 2021 - that is also irrelevant. We are talking cap rates right now.
Yeah to be honest I think your numbers are overall pretty fine but once you include mortgage barely anyone is profitable. If you're cash downing these properties big time, it might be working for you.

But, for me I want property growth to help really get that return.
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Jul 3, 2011
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Thornhill
Jimmykirky wrote: I don't really follow the context of your post

To me, it seems like you're trying to imply that I don't understand taxes, maybe that's not your intention, but it seems like it...........

Statsguy's post about my tax #'s were irrelevant. It was only for him to be argumentative and disagreeable. It wasn't to add anything to the conversation.
Yes, that is what I I am telling you and Statsguy was not trying to be argumentative, he was correcting this assertion of yours
Taxes will be low. Not sure how you came up with $380. I see you don’t own property in toronto though so it makes sense.
$380 a month is $4560 per year. No condo in Toronto pays that in taxes.
My original cap rate calculation....
Irrelevant, I didn't mention your cap rate
I'm also not sure where # of bedrooms came up as a way to figure out taxes?...
I don't either. You made that connection, not anyone else. so ask yourself why.
I get how the mil rate works except that everyone knows that no one is paying $3600 in taxes for a one bedroom.
You should now understand property tax basics, I think we're done here.
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May 3, 2020
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licenced wrote: Yes, that is what I I am telling you and Statsguy was not trying to be argumentative, he was correcting this assertion of yours

Irrelevant, I didn't mention your cap rate

I don't either. You made that connection, not anyone else. so ask yourself why.

You should now understand property tax basics, I think we're done here.

It is funny how a simple example of cap rates has these two guys trolling about tax calculations. This is hilarious.

Thanks for the TIPs. I’ll remember that my $700k condo that I pay $2400 taxes should actually be $3600 cause the assessed value in 2024 will be that!

Next time I’ll include fine print in my example for you
Deal Guru
Feb 29, 2008
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Chickennbeans wrote: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politi ... 02320.html

Not for the fall, but if this flies, rent and property value are going to the moon.
Yep. I have no doubt property values are going up, up, up. Too much money printing for money not to flow to real estate. I actually predicted ubi when they introduced CERB...pretty obvious. Funny, the left has gone further left and the right has gone further right. Centrists have nowhere to go.
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Jimmykirky wrote: It is funny how a simple example of cap rates has these two guys trolling about tax calculations. This is hilarious.

Thanks for the TIPs. I’ll remember that my $700k condo that I pay $2400 taxes should actually be $3600 cause the assessed value in 2024 will be that!

Next time I’ll include fine print in my example for you
You're very welcome for the lesson.
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Oct 21, 2016
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Condo market bad everything else decent.
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Nov 5, 2018
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Chickennbeans wrote: https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politi ... 02320.html

Not for the fall, but if this flies, rent and property value are going to the moon.
UBI sounds like a neat idea in theory, but how the heck are we going to afford it? We can't even afford the CERB the gov paid.
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Jan 12, 2017
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I agree... I suppose we could just churn money through the system, accelerating inflation endlessly. Oddly enough, this behaviour encourages home ownership (some level of insulation against inflation), unless there is significant rent control below the rate of inflation, in which case non-property related taxes and user fees would have to escalate significantly to compensate, driving increases to UBI, starting the cycle over.

This can only lead towards the elimination of the monetary system - all are provided basic necessities required to survive (goods rather than funds). Luxury goods would be an interesting. Perhaps a fixed allocation for all that can be spent. Use it or lose it. There would also need to be global adoption of this. No way the rich would buy into that unless there was a world war that threatened them directly. Impossible unless a country was full isolated from everyone else.

I guess that leaves corporate takeover of countries as the only viable future...
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CondoMan98 wrote: UBI sounds like a neat idea in theory, but how the heck are we going to afford it? We can't even afford the CERB the gov paid.
The budget... will balance itself...
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Jul 9, 2020
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Chickennbeans wrote: I agree... I suppose we could just churn money through the system, accelerating inflation endlessly. Oddly enough, this behaviour encourages home ownership (some level of insulation against inflation), unless there is significant rent control below the rate of inflation, in which case non-property related taxes and user fees would have to escalate significantly to compensate, driving increases to UBI, starting the cycle over.

This can only lead towards the elimination of the monetary system - all are provided basic necessities required to survive (goods rather than funds). Luxury goods would be an interesting. Perhaps a fixed allocation for all that can be spent. Use it or lose it. There would also need to be global adoption of this. No way the rich would buy into that unless there was a world war that threatened them directly. Impossible unless a country was full isolated from everyone else.

I guess that leaves corporate takeover of countries as the only viable future...
I feel like we're already doing this with the minimum wage increases, social check increases (CCTB), strike money, daycare money, "Ontario Works", CERB, CESB, decreasing interest rates etc. (I lost track of the amount of government programs we have). Also immigration helps keep up demand and despite lower immigration right now, prices are staying strong.

There are "low wage" earners who are buying homes with the money from government social programs (not that there's anything wrong with that, smart people imo).

We couldn't afford CERB yet it was done anyway. I doubt the handouts will ever stop in our lifetimes lol.

IMO if you have cash, buy something that can hold up with inflation. USD is another good holding because I can honestly see a 60 cent dollar in a few years.

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