Real Estate

Predictions for Fall market

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 21st, 2020 9:14 am
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1242 posts
992 upvotes
For the fall, open questions are:
1)When rents are going to stop falling. Answer - probably not in 2020.
2)When condo prices reach negative YOY. Looking at the chart, I would say it is going to be October 2020 month end stats.

Image

3)For non-condos, train is going to the moon with no brake pedal in 2020
Latest Toronto Real Estate Charts and Analytics: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVYNKA ... iqhNDMV-iA
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 5, 2018
1426 posts
2073 upvotes
Toronto
GalvToronto wrote: For the fall, open questions are:
1)When rents are going to stop falling. Answer - probably not in 2020.
2)When condo prices reach negative YOY. Looking at the chart, I would say it is going to be October 2020 month end stats.

Image

3)For non-condos, train is going to the moon with no brake pedal in 2020
I think rents will not stop going down until summer 2021. As for when condo prices go negative YoY...I could see that happening in December 2020, with continued weakness until Summer/Fall of 2021.
I do not need approval, I do not need friends. I do what I want.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 9, 2009
9338 posts
6950 upvotes
UBI -- man if you thought the immigration lines were long before... just throw in UBI and the world is going to be running to Canada.

I especially love the UBI website with the guy holding the sign "I have a job but still need basic income"

LIke what the hell happened to society in the last decade? So damn entitled... i work but still need more money

Also one of the proposals and biggest ways they want to raise money is taxation on land and environmental sources -- guess what happens to RE when you keep taxing the crap out of it? up...up...and UP!
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
2666 posts
2803 upvotes
Toronto
Sanyo wrote: UBI -- man if you thought the immigration lines were long before... just throw in UBI and the world is going to be running to Canada.

I especially love the UBI website with the guy holding the sign "I have a job but still need basic income"

LIke what the hell happened to society in the last decade? So damn entitled... i work but still need more money

Also one of the proposals and biggest ways they want to raise money is taxation on land and environmental sources -- guess what happens to RE when you keep taxing the crap out of it? up...up...and UP!
no way the government can afford UBI without either cutting back EI CPP OAS etc or raising taxes like mad.....

CERB just unleashed a massive can of worms and now lazy people are even more lazy after a free $2000 a month for the last half year....

people laughed at me when I said trudeau is gonna slap some sort of tax on home sale gains.... its coming!

saw a great post yesterday on twitter, if the government can print money then why do we have to pay taxes? lmao...
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
7251 posts
7665 upvotes
Toronto
joepipe wrote: no way the government can afford UBI without either cutting back EI CPP OAS etc or raising taxes like mad.....

CERB just unleashed a massive can of worms and now lazy people are even more lazy after a free $2000 a month for the last half year....

people laughed at me when I said trudeau is gonna slap some sort of tax on home sale gains.... its coming!

saw a great post yesterday on twitter, if the government can print money then why do we have to pay taxes? lmao...
If they touch CPP they will lose every vote over 40, people have been paying into that their whole life.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 5, 2018
1426 posts
2073 upvotes
Toronto
joepipe wrote:
no way the government can afford UBI without either cutting back EI CPP OAS etc or raising taxes like mad.....

CERB just unleashed a massive can of worms and now lazy people are even more lazy after a free $2000 a month for the last half year....

people laughed at me when I said trudeau is gonna slap some sort of tax on home sale gains.... its coming!

saw a great post yesterday on twitter, if the government can print money then why do we have to pay taxes? lmao...
I don’t think they will add a tax on your principal residence; it would cost them the election. Could it happen though? Maybe!
I do not need approval, I do not need friends. I do what I want.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
7251 posts
7665 upvotes
Toronto
CondoMan98 wrote: I don’t think they will add a tax on your principal residence; it would cost them the election. Could it happen though? Maybe!
If love to pay capital gains on my primary residence, then it's an investment and I get to deduct mortgage interest. I'll save thousands a year and they can try to collect capital gains in 50 years when I'm dead and they sell my house.
Deal Addict
Jan 12, 2017
1050 posts
492 upvotes
If they announce the tax early enough, it won't hurt them. They'll spin it - how many of you actually sold your principal residences in the last few years? as a percentage, I imagine it won't be high.
CondoMan98 wrote: I don’t think they will add a tax on your principal residence; it would cost them the election. Could it happen though? Maybe!
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1242 posts
992 upvotes
Chickennbeans wrote: If they announce the tax early enough, it won't hurt them. They'll spin it - how many of you actually sold your principal residences in the last few years? as a percentage, I imagine it won't be high.
Every property is sold roughly every 20 years. So during 4-year election term, 20% of population will sell.
But such tax cannot be retroactive. Which means, even if gov announces it, it will not get a single dime from condo owners for an unknown period of time considering worsening soft market.
Unless the brand new gains will happen after announcement.
Latest Toronto Real Estate Charts and Analytics: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVYNKA ... iqhNDMV-iA
Member
Sep 10, 2010
346 posts
60 upvotes
St Catharines
mazerbeaner wrote: If love to pay capital gains on my primary residence, then it's an investment and I get to deduct mortgage interest. I'll save thousands a year and they can try to collect capital gains in 50 years when I'm dead and they sell my house.
Do I get to claim past mort int if they back tax cap gains?
Sr. Member
Sep 7, 2018
606 posts
452 upvotes
mazerbeaner wrote: If they touch CPP they will lose every vote over 40, people have been paying into that their whole life.
You'll have UBI instead. Same thing, different program name.
Deal Addict
Nov 23, 2003
1845 posts
381 upvotes
Freeholds to touch sky.

Condos to stagnant.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 5, 2018
1426 posts
2073 upvotes
Toronto
Chickennbeans wrote: If they announce the tax early enough, it won't hurt them. They'll spin it - how many of you actually sold your principal residences in the last few years? as a percentage, I imagine it won't be high.
Singh_21 wrote: Freeholds to touch sky.

Condos to stagnant.
Condos are going down 5-15%, then we should clear higher after. There is too much inventory.

But if you are invested for the long run. You will do well.
I do not need approval, I do not need friends. I do what I want.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Sep 10, 2003
1624 posts
148 upvotes
Hamilton
Any real estate agents on here interested in making a few $$$ on the side, need a confidential report pulled on a property to find out about last years advertised on market, and apparently two failed bids. I don’t want to discuss with the listing agent as we may end up using them as part of a package to sell our home. Just want to make sure we are making an informed offer knowing all the history. PM me with expectations $$$, don’t mind paying a few bucks for your time. Thanks in advance.

ON TOPIC: Definitely going to be a weird Fall & Winter season - hopefully SPRING things look better for the real estate markets. IMHO
Jr. Member
Aug 10, 2010
197 posts
11 upvotes
Richmond Hill
What is the outlook for townhouses communities that are part of condo corporation and has a low maintenance fee? do they belong to the condo or freehold bucket categories

Top