September 2020 Forecast & Monthly report

GalvToronto wrote: ↑ Anybody want to bet what numbers will be for September 2020 month TRREB report?
And then we can compare it with official report, once it is released

My guess is:
1)Growing MOI.
a)Toronto Condos Apt MOI from 2.97 in August to 3.4-3.5 in September.
b)Toronto Detached MOI from 1.52 in August to 1.7 in September
2)Growing Active listings.
a)Toronto from 4564 Condo Apt listings in August to 5300-5400 in September, making it the all-time-high listings number for Toronto condo apt.
b)Toronto detached from 1675 listings in Aug to 1900-2000 in September, still fewer than a year ago
3)Moderately growing month-to-month price in Toronto
a)Detached in Toronto will remain with avg price $1.51M same as in Aug 2020
b)Condo Apt in Toronto price will actually go up from $673k in August to $680-$690k in September 2020
4)Moderately declining price in GTA overall month-to-month and growing listings
a) avg price in GTA will drop from 951k in August to ~945k in Sept
b)19k active listings total in GTA vs 16,7 in August
c)MOI 1.65 in GTA total vs 1.55 in August

Your turn

DealFind25 wrote: ↑ What is the reason behind the slight increase in condo prices - more higher priced condos being sold or a general increase in price due to other factors like interest rate etc? When do you think the condo inventory will start showing a bigger impact in prices or inventory will get eaten up?

Jimmykirky wrote: ↑ condo prices have fallen in Toronto... averages going up cause like u said above, bigger units are still moving in relation to smaller units. which pushes averages up.

Newuserid wrote: ↑ Can someone please help me understand the numbers for the condo price YoY.

How can average prices for the 416 and 905 go up by 7.7% and 8% respectively, but combined total average price only go up by 6.6%? I'm confused...is that a typo?

mazerbeaner wrote: ↑ It's not a typo it's just more condos are selling in a cheaper area so the average is down.

Here is an example.

10 $5 apples sell
2 $2 apples sell

The average sale prices is 54/12=$4.50

Now the prices of both go up 10% but more cheap apples sell.

2 $5.50 apples sell
10 $2.20 apples sell

The average sale price is 33/12=$2.75

Newuserid wrote: ↑ I understand the impact on the weightings. But in your particular example, the total average would fall between $2 and $10.

Going back to the average condo prices, how can 7.7% and 8% average down to 6.6%. Mathematically, its impossible.

mazerbeaner wrote: ↑ No it's not I just showed you an example of how two baskets can increase 10% in price and the total average of both goes down.

Newuserid wrote: ↑ Okay...so let's use the actual numbers of 7.7% and 8%.

Can you please demonstrate how these two numbers can average to a number BELOW 7.7?

Mathematically, the total average would have to fall between 7.7 and 8.

Newuserid wrote: ↑ Can someone please help me understand the numbers for the condo price YoY.

How can average prices for the 416 and 905 go up by 7.7% and 8% respectively, but combined total average price only go up by 6.6%? I'm confused...is that a typo?

GalvToronto wrote: ↑ What is particularly interesting, although condo apt average price continued growing, the HPI decreased MOM for Toronto condos.
August 2020 had $621k benchmark price.
September 2020 has $619k.

Which means, the increase in average price is mostly dictated by shifting consumer preferences into better units, rather than actual price growth for same units.

GalvToronto wrote: ↑ What is particularly interesting, although condo apt average price continued growing, the HPI decreased MOM for Toronto condos.
August 2020 had $621k benchmark price.
September 2020 has $619k.

Which means, the increase in average price is mostly dictated by shifting consumer preferences into better units, rather than actual price growth for same units.

mazerbeaner wrote: ↑ This is definitely incorrect and it's an easy mathematical problem to solve. Here is an example using the numbers you provided.

50 red apples sell for $10 each
20 green apples sell for $6 each
Average sale price is $8.56

Red apples go up 7.7% in price

Green apples go up 8% in price

40 red apples sell for $10.77 each
28 green apples sell for $6.48 each
Average sale price is $9.00 (Up 5%)

Newuserid wrote: ↑ Okay, I see what you mean now. Thanks

I thought they would just average out the percentages but it looks like they took the change in total dollar sales.