Real Estate

September 2020 Forecast & Monthly report

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 6th, 2020 12:58 pm
[OP]
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1270 posts
1039 upvotes

September 2020 Forecast & Monthly report

Anybody want to bet what numbers will be for September 2020 month TRREB report?
And then we can compare it with official report, once it is released :)

My guess is:
1)Growing MOI.
a)Toronto Condos Apt MOI from 2.97 in August to 3.4-3.5 in September.
b)Toronto Detached MOI from 1.52 in August to 1.7 in September
2)Growing Active listings.
a)Toronto from 4564 Condo Apt listings in August to 5300-5400 in September, making it the all-time-high listings number for Toronto condo apt.
b)Toronto detached from 1675 listings in Aug to 1900-2000 in September, still fewer than a year ago
3)Moderately growing month-to-month price in Toronto
a)Detached in Toronto will remain with avg price $1.51M same as in Aug 2020
b)Condo Apt in Toronto price will actually go up from $673k in August to $680-$690k in September 2020
4)Moderately declining price in GTA overall month-to-month and growing listings
a) avg price in GTA will drop from 951k in August to ~945k in Sept
b)19k active listings total in GTA vs 16,7 in August
c)MOI 1.65 in GTA total vs 1.55 in August

Your turn :)
18 replies
Jr. Member
Aug 13, 2020
194 posts
222 upvotes
GalvToronto wrote: Anybody want to bet what numbers will be for September 2020 month TRREB report?
And then we can compare it with official report, once it is released :)

My guess is:
1)Growing MOI.
a)Toronto Condos Apt MOI from 2.97 in August to 3.4-3.5 in September.
b)Toronto Detached MOI from 1.52 in August to 1.7 in September
2)Growing Active listings.
a)Toronto from 4564 Condo Apt listings in August to 5300-5400 in September, making it the all-time-high listings number for Toronto condo apt.
b)Toronto detached from 1675 listings in Aug to 1900-2000 in September, still fewer than a year ago
3)Moderately growing month-to-month price in Toronto
a)Detached in Toronto will remain with avg price $1.51M same as in Aug 2020
b)Condo Apt in Toronto price will actually go up from $673k in August to $680-$690k in September 2020
4)Moderately declining price in GTA overall month-to-month and growing listings
a) avg price in GTA will drop from 951k in August to ~945k in Sept
b)19k active listings total in GTA vs 16,7 in August
c)MOI 1.65 in GTA total vs 1.55 in August

Your turn :)
What is the reason behind the slight increase in condo prices - more higher priced condos being sold or a general increase in price due to other factors like interest rate etc? When do you think the condo inventory will start showing a bigger impact in prices or inventory will get eaten up?
[OP]
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1270 posts
1039 upvotes
DealFind25 wrote: What is the reason behind the slight increase in condo prices - more higher priced condos being sold or a general increase in price due to other factors like interest rate etc? When do you think the condo inventory will start showing a bigger impact in prices or inventory will get eaten up?
I wish I had any of those answers...
1)It is logical to assume the main contributor in higher avg price is the interest to high quality units. If you have a lot of options, doesn't mean you will go to buy the cheapest one. You may as well choose to buy the best unit in your price range. But it has to be verified, whenever possible.
2)It is a fundamental constant of Toronto market, which was never revealed. At what MOI price will be dropping for condos. Nobody knows, but we are probably pretty close to that levels. Maybe somewhere above 4 MOI, but no guarantee. Everybody should be as well prepared to never catch that moment because that constant may have other value.
Banned
May 3, 2020
77 posts
73 upvotes
condo prices have fallen in Toronto... averages going up cause like u said above, bigger units are still moving in relation to smaller units. which pushes averages up.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1270 posts
1039 upvotes
Jimmykirky wrote: condo prices have fallen in Toronto... averages going up cause like u said above, bigger units are still moving in relation to smaller units. which pushes averages up.
In this case, this claim will be clearly visible in the monthly TRREB report in HPI/Benchmark price for condos
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
I don't think it will be that much different than August, probably similar numbers but worse YoY because last September was better than August.

I don't think there will be much change for the next 12 months, things have largely reached a new equalibrium.

Maybe some downward pressure on small condos but the one time exodus of AirBnB and WFH is already done. It isn't going to happen again.

Probably won't see much change until COVID is over then there will be a rush back DT as people realize commuting in GTA is a nightmare.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
702 posts
918 upvotes
Can someone please help me understand the numbers for the condo price YoY.

How can average prices for the 416 and 905 go up by 7.7% and 8% respectively, but combined total average price only go up by 6.6%? I'm confused...is that a typo?
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[OP]
Deal Addict
Mar 20, 2017
1270 posts
1039 upvotes
What is particularly interesting, although condo apt average price continued growing, the HPI decreased MOM for Toronto condos.
August 2020 had $621k benchmark price.
September 2020 has $619k.

Which means, the increase in average price is mostly dictated by shifting consumer preferences into better units, rather than actual price growth for same units.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
Newuserid wrote: Can someone please help me understand the numbers for the condo price YoY.

How can average prices for the 416 and 905 go up by 7.7% and 8% respectively, but combined total average price only go up by 6.6%? I'm confused...is that a typo?
It's not a typo it's just more condos are selling in a cheaper area so the average is down.

Here is an example.

10 $5 apples sell
2 $2 apples sell

The average sale prices is 54/12=$4.50

Now the prices of both go up 10% but more cheap apples sell.

2 $5.50 apples sell
10 $2.20 apples sell

The average sale price is 33/12=$2.75
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
702 posts
918 upvotes
mazerbeaner wrote: It's not a typo it's just more condos are selling in a cheaper area so the average is down.

Here is an example.

10 $5 apples sell
2 $2 apples sell

The average sale prices is 54/12=$4.50

Now the prices of both go up 10% but more cheap apples sell.

2 $5.50 apples sell
10 $2.20 apples sell

The average sale price is 33/12=$2.75
I understand the impact on the weightings. But in your particular example, the total average would fall between $2 and $10.

Going back to the average condo prices, how can 7.7% and 8% average down to 6.6%. Mathematically, its impossible.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
Newuserid wrote: I understand the impact on the weightings. But in your particular example, the total average would fall between $2 and $10.

Going back to the average condo prices, how can 7.7% and 8% average down to 6.6%. Mathematically, its impossible.
No it's not I just showed you an example of how two baskets can increase 10% in price and the total average of both goes down.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
702 posts
918 upvotes
mazerbeaner wrote: No it's not I just showed you an example of how two baskets can increase 10% in price and the total average of both goes down.
Okay...so let's use the actual numbers of 7.7% and 8%.

Can you please demonstrate how these two numbers can average to a number BELOW 7.7?

Mathematically, the total average would have to fall between 7.7 and 8.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
Newuserid wrote: Okay...so let's use the actual numbers of 7.7% and 8%.

Can you please demonstrate how these two numbers can average to a number BELOW 7.7?

Mathematically, the total average would have to fall between 7.7 and 8.
This is definitely incorrect and it's an easy mathematical problem to solve. Here is an example using the numbers you provided.

50 red apples sell for $10 each
20 green apples sell for $6 each
Average sale price is $8.56

Red apples go up 7.7% in price

Green apples go up 8% in price

40 red apples sell for $10.77 each
28 green apples sell for $6.48 each
Average sale price is $9.00 (Up 5%)
Member
Jun 15, 2015
335 posts
383 upvotes
Thornhill, ON
Newuserid wrote: Can someone please help me understand the numbers for the condo price YoY.

How can average prices for the 416 and 905 go up by 7.7% and 8% respectively, but combined total average price only go up by 6.6%? I'm confused...is that a typo?
Is this why Ontario students don't do well in math :-(
Member
Sep 28, 2008
416 posts
112 upvotes
GalvToronto wrote: What is particularly interesting, although condo apt average price continued growing, the HPI decreased MOM for Toronto condos.
August 2020 had $621k benchmark price.
September 2020 has $619k.

Which means, the increase in average price is mostly dictated by shifting consumer preferences into better units, rather than actual price growth for same units.
I think increase in average price went up because of more $2M+ units moving.

This is why it's more important to look at median over average. And in more specific locations.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
GalvToronto wrote: What is particularly interesting, although condo apt average price continued growing, the HPI decreased MOM for Toronto condos.
August 2020 had $621k benchmark price.
September 2020 has $619k.

Which means, the increase in average price is mostly dictated by shifting consumer preferences into better units, rather than actual price growth for same units.
For condos definitely, junk is sitting. Nicer units in nicer buildings are still selling. Whereas before everything was selling.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
702 posts
918 upvotes
mazerbeaner wrote: This is definitely incorrect and it's an easy mathematical problem to solve. Here is an example using the numbers you provided.

50 red apples sell for $10 each
20 green apples sell for $6 each
Average sale price is $8.56

Red apples go up 7.7% in price

Green apples go up 8% in price

40 red apples sell for $10.77 each
28 green apples sell for $6.48 each
Average sale price is $9.00 (Up 5%)
Okay, I see what you mean now. Thanks

I thought they would just average out the percentages but it looks like they took the change in total dollar sales.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 22, 2011
8701 posts
10417 upvotes
Toronto
Newuserid wrote: Okay, I see what you mean now. Thanks

I thought they would just average out the percentages but it looks like they took the change in total dollar sales.
Yea it's an average of both total sales, which is kind of a useless number imo. The regionals are way more meaningful.

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