Investing

September stock crash or correction?

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 25th, 2021 11:38 pm
Member
Jun 20, 2015
236 posts
136 upvotes
UrbanPoet wrote: Did he really say that? What an interesting cultural icon that mark twain. Is that even his real name
“Samuel Langhorne Clemens (November 30, 1835 – April 21, 1910),[1] known by his pen name Mark Twain, was an American writer, humorist, entrepreneur, publisher, and lecturer. He was lauded as the "greatest humorist the United States has produced,"[ - -Wikipedia

In some stock markets, the Mark Twain effect is the phenomenon of stock returns in October being lower than in other months.[1] The name comes from a line in Mark Twain's Pudd'nhead Wilson: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."[2]
The quotation is a sarcastic assertion that speculation in stocks is always dangerous. The fact that Twain specifically picks out October initially is taken as a reference to an "October effect", as exemplified by the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes which roughly occurred in October.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Twai ... -weekend-2
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Feb 8, 2014
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tester85 wrote: I heard from people that stock may crash by next month? is this true?

All stocks are A.T.H; feds keeps printing money because of Covid, and inflation. -more money being flown away from stocks and pushed into crypto.

it it does happen, it seems to be next month.

is this true? is there going to be correction coming up soon?
A bunch of easy answers leading to an idiotic conclusion :rolleyes:

How many times do we need to see this pattern repeat before we realize that a bunch of slogans that ignore how things really work are unreliable?

Will the market fall someday, sure it will, thats the nature of markets. Will it be on a predictable schedule. Not likely.
In fact in Rand McNally they wear hats on their feet and hamburgers eat people
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Dec 5, 2006
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Markham
RFD11111 wrote: “Samuel Langhorne Clemens (November 30, 1835 – April 21, 1910),[1] known by his pen name Mark Twain, was an American writer, humorist, entrepreneur, publisher, and lecturer. He was lauded as the "greatest humorist the United States has produced,"[ - -Wikipedia

In some stock markets, the Mark Twain effect is the phenomenon of stock returns in October being lower than in other months.[1] The name comes from a line in Mark Twain's Pudd'nhead Wilson: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."[2]
The quotation is a sarcastic assertion that speculation in stocks is always dangerous. The fact that Twain specifically picks out October initially is taken as a reference to an "October effect", as exemplified by the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes which roughly occurred in October.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Twai ... -weekend-2
I'd like ask him whether the degree of danger is in that particular order - October, July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February
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Dec 8, 2020
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West Rouge, Ontario
RFD11111 wrote: “Samuel Langhorne Clemens (November 30, 1835 – April 21, 1910),[1] known by his pen name Mark Twain, was an American writer, humorist, entrepreneur, publisher, and lecturer. He was lauded as the "greatest humorist the United States has produced,"[ - -Wikipedia

The fact that Twain specifically picks out October initially is taken as a reference to an "October effect", as exemplified by the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes which roughly occurred in October.
^^^ makes sense, so lets see if the Mark Twain almanac is right in 2021.
Kua tae ahau ki konei, ki reira me nga waahi katoa
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
16816 posts
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Toronto
If it could be easily predicted that the market would fall in September, everybody would sell in August. Perhaps that has already happened, as some sectors such as Energy have been hit very hard.
Jr. Member
Jan 9, 2016
199 posts
162 upvotes
Oakville, ON
The more the people speculate that its going to crash the higher the market will go. I don't think the majority is right ever about a crash.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Invest in good companies not stocks and you will be fine. And always have some cash to buy the dip/correction.
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Apr 13, 2009
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Toronto
"People" are right, crash is coming on September 17th at 11:42
Deal Guru
Dec 5, 2006
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I only need AXP and BLK crash to build positions
Member
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Jun 28, 2018
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Aurora, Ontario
I wouldn't say a crash but we can see a bit of a pull back 10-15%. That's exactly what happened last year. Also, expect COVID numbers to shoot up once schools reopen and this will spook some people. I also suspect that if Liberals get majority CAD will tank some more relative to USD. Of course this is all just speculation on my part.

I would say that if you need the money in the next year maybe take profits now and sleep easy but if you're not touching the money for a while might as well ride it out.
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Sep 7, 2014
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Onterrible
I'd love another crash or at least a huge correction.

Basically made my yearly salary except in 4 months from March 2020 to July 2020.

Historically (means nothing) September is a slump month for stocks, plus I believe the US Fed will be tapering their buying around then according to financial sector.

Also, who the F knows lol
Newbie
Mar 2, 2021
65 posts
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Remember late 2018 when the market started plummeting after the FED started tapering. They had to reverse course very quickly, and the market shot back up. During the COVID crash of 2020, the FED even mentioned the possibility of buying ETFs to "stabilize" financial markets.. They have had our backs for the last 12 years. Why should they stop now?
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Jul 30, 2015
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If you really believe people buy some put options for late Sept.
Also, economists have predicted 20 of the last 5 market crashes.
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canoek wrote: Also, economists have predicted 20 of the last 5 market crashes.
You win the internet Smiling Face With Open Mouth
In fact in Rand McNally they wear hats on their feet and hamburgers eat people
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Jul 30, 2015
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Quentin5 wrote: You win the internet Smiling Face With Open Mouth
Not mine. It's a famous quote.
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canoek wrote: Not mine. It's a famous quote.
You made Quentin5 laugh and summed up the entire thread in 11 words :)
Last edited by Quentin5 on Aug 25th, 2021 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In fact in Rand McNally they wear hats on their feet and hamburgers eat people
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2015
4085 posts
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Toronto, ON
Looks like the actual quote was for recessions. Similar idea though
The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson.

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