Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 26th, 2020 8:30 am
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary

The Short-Term Trading Thread

Hello RFD traders!

This thread will be devoted to short-term trading opportunities.

All ideas and constructive criticism are welcome.

For fun only, nothing posted in this thread should be considered investment advice.
Thread Summary
Guess the S&P 500 Closing Price on December 31 2019

freilona - 3300
yvrbanker - 3180
georvu - 3150.15
Jeenyus1 - 3080
Windseek3r - 2987.1
rapashoo - 2915
dlhunter - 2900
sailplane - 2860
MrMom - 2731.25
margincall - 2666.66

2019 Winner - yvrbanker (3180 guess vs 3230.78 close)
2018 Winner - georvu (2560 guess vs 2506.85 close)
10398 replies
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
Weekend chart updates:

SPX: Ambiguous close, despite great work by bulls towards the end of the day. We are still below resistance, so I expect lower prices ahead. 3 possible paths are outlined on the chart, green is my primary.

Natural Gas: Bullish as long as the recent lows hold.

Crude Oil: Expecting this correction to complete shortly before starting a move to 75 later this year.
Images
  • cldmar4.png
  • ngdmar4.png
  • SPXdailyMar4.png
Deal Addict
Jul 27, 2017
2180 posts
938 upvotes
arvind84 et.al, I have always been curious about these "short term trades" (are they daily or over 2 - 3 days) on the other thread, as to what all the costs are going in as well as how much is put on the line on each trade & what your account needs to cover those positions?

are you doing this with real money or paper trading?

do you need a $hit load of money to do this or possibly a huge account balance with a large margin at your brokerage?

are you doing your successful day trades for a net $100, $1000 or more... what?

so if you wouldn't mind a small walk through of the cost or money on the line in the trades in the other thread @ post 17671 & 17672?

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/what-did ... 3161/1179/
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
@porticoman: I've been trading futures with real money since 2010. I'll try to answer all your questions below:

Futures Trading 101

Futures are highly leveraged derivatives that track the price of various underlying commodities (SPX, Oil, Gold etc).
You can get started with a futures account with as little as USD 25K at any of the big brokers.

Each futures contract has its own multiplier(delta). In the case of the S&P500 E-mini (ES) contract, the multiplier is 50.
So, every 1 point move in the SPX results in a gain or loss of $50, per contract traded.

The margin requirement for 1 ES contract is ~$6400. So technically, that is the bare minimum that you need to have in your account to trade open a position in 1 ES contract.

Crude Oil has a delta of 1000, and NG 10,000. I don't recall the exact margin requirements but I believe it's less than $5K per contract.

Looking at Friday's trades that you referred to, I ended the day with +34 ES points, which is $1700 per contract traded.
On crude, I closed the trade with a profit of 1.00, which is $1000 per contract.

I vary my position sizing based on market conditions, so right now I'm trading smaller size with looser stops due to the volatility.

Commissions are generally quite low on futures, in the range of $1-2 per contract each way depending on volume. You can negotiate this down.

My holding period varies from a few minutes to several days/weeks.

I like futures because they trade around the clock, so I can avoid gap risk, except on the weekends of course.

For anyone interested in getting started, I would recommend paper trading for a few months before committing real money. Futures are unforgiving beasts, not for the faint of heart. Most of the major brokers offer sim trading accounts, so start there.

Hope this helps!
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
Gap down open on futures...

Long ES 2676, stop 2670
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
jerryhung wrote: Great off-thread, how short is short term? DAY trading? swing within a week?
I think anything out to a month or so qualifies as short-term.

It can be anything you like, for example, earnings plays on the FAANGS.

The more ideas, the better :)
Last edited by margincall on Mar 4th, 2018 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
Setting stop to 2677, the first trade of this thread is now a guaranteed winner Smiling Face With Open Mouth

Order placed to take profit at 2706.

See you all in the morning!

Edit: Took half off at 2688 (+11). Stop and target remains the same on the rest.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5444 posts
1866 upvotes
Generally, I learned to fade counter trend rallies. While 2710 is my possible upside target, fridays volume above 2685 was thin - low conviction aka weak hands.

Feels like POTUS is determined to slap tariffs. Some call it black swan already lol

Btw, 1 ES contract notionally equals 500 SPY shares or 134K
Some brokers raised margin requirements due to volatility, normally its less than 6500.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
Read quite a few articles saying that he won't go through with the tariffs...that makes me think he actually might Face With Tears Of Joy

If an official announcement does materialize this week...it'll get ugly.

Closed remaining ES longs at 2679 (+3).
Deal Fanatic
Feb 4, 2015
5944 posts
2436 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
Trade balance, free trade, protectionism are thin lines for any leader to walk... Do we really think Trump can walk the talk?? He can't even talk most of the time.

So definitely added volatility so great for ST trading
.......
July 13, 2017 to October 25, 2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime rate next day each time.

2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited and waited to drop its prime rate to include all 3 drops.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
2960 posts
2113 upvotes
Calgary
Good morning! ES tested and held 100DMA overnight, have to give the edge to bulls unless 2670 is broken decisively.

Long ES 2681, stop 2675

I bailed on my USD/CAD short from the other thread @ 1.29 (-40pips). Much higher and a weekly breakout will trigger, this week is key.

Edit: Chart added. 2675 is an important level as it has been tested so many times.

Edit2: Looking to add to longs at the open, removed stop for now.
Images
  • es4hmar5.png
Last edited by margincall on Mar 5th, 2018 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top

Thread Information

There are currently 3 users viewing this thread. (2 members and 1 guest)

K2flip, Charles