The Short-Term Trading Thread

Weekend chart updates:

SPX: Ambiguous close, despite great work by bulls towards the end of the day. We are still below resistance, so I expect lower prices ahead. 3 possible paths are outlined on the chart, green is my primary.

Natural Gas: Bullish as long as the recent lows hold.

Crude Oil: Expecting this correction to complete shortly before starting a move to 75 later this year.

arvind84 et.al, I have always been curious about these "short term trades" (are they daily or over 2 - 3 days) on the other thread, as to what all the costs are going in as well as how much is put on the line on each trade & what your account needs to cover those positions?

are you doing this with real money or paper trading?

do you need a $hit load of money to do this or possibly a huge account balance with a large margin at your brokerage?

are you doing your successful day trades for a net $100, $1000 or more... what?

so if you wouldn't mind a small walk through of the cost or money on the line in the trades in the other thread @ post 17671 & 17672?

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/what-did ... 3161/1179/

@porticoman: I've been trading futures with real money since 2010. I'll try to answer all your questions below:

Futures Trading 101

Futures are highly leveraged derivatives that track the price of various underlying commodities (SPX, Oil, Gold etc).
You can get started with a futures account with as little as USD 25K at any of the big brokers.

Each futures contract has its own multiplier(delta). In the case of the S&P500 E-mini (ES) contract, the multiplier is 50.
So, every 1 point move in the SPX results in a gain or loss of $50, per contract traded.

The margin requirement for 1 ES contract is ~$6400. So technically, that is the bare minimum that you need to have in your account to trade open a position in 1 ES contract.

Crude Oil has a delta of 1000, and NG 10,000. I don't recall the exact margin requirements but I believe it's less than $5K per contract.

Looking at Friday's trades that you referred to, I ended the day with +34 ES points, which is $1700 per contract traded.
On crude, I closed the trade with a profit of 1.00, which is $1000 per contract.

I vary my position sizing based on market conditions, so right now I'm trading smaller size with looser stops due to the volatility.

Commissions are generally quite low on futures, in the range of $1-2 per contract each way depending on volume. You can negotiate this down.

My holding period varies from a few minutes to several days/weeks.

I like futures because they trade around the clock, so I can avoid gap risk, except on the weekends of course.

For anyone interested in getting started, I would recommend paper trading for a few months before committing real money. Futures are unforgiving beasts, not for the faint of heart. Most of the major brokers offer sim trading accounts, so start there.

Hope this helps!

arvind84 @post #4....thank you

porticoman wrote: ↑ arvind84 @post #4....thank you

My pleasure

Gap down open on futures...

Long ES 2676, stop 2670

Great off-thread, how short is short term? DAY trading? swing within a week?

jerryhung wrote: ↑ Great off-thread, how short is short term? DAY trading? swing within a week?

I think anything out to a month or so qualifies as short-term.

It can be anything you like, for example, earnings plays on the FAANGS.

The more ideas, the better

Setting stop to 2677, the first trade of this thread is now a guaranteed winner

Order placed to take profit at 2706.

See you all in the morning!

Edit: Took half off at 2688 (+11). Stop and target remains the same on the rest.

Generally, I learned to fade counter trend rallies. While 2710 is my possible upside target, fridays volume above 2685 was thin - low conviction aka weak hands.

Feels like POTUS is determined to slap tariffs. Some call it black swan already lol

Btw, 1 ES contract notionally equals 500 SPY shares or 134K
Some brokers raised margin requirements due to volatility, normally its less than 6500.

Read quite a few articles saying that he won't go through with the tariffs...that makes me think he actually might

If an official announcement does materialize this week...it'll get ugly.

Closed remaining ES longs at 2679 (+3).

Trade balance, free trade, protectionism are thin lines for any leader to walk... Do we really think Trump can walk the talk?? He can't even talk most of the time.

So definitely added volatility so great for ST trading

Good morning! ES tested and held 100DMA overnight, have to give the edge to bulls unless 2670 is broken decisively.

Long ES 2681, stop 2675

I bailed on my USD/CAD short from the other thread @ 1.29 (-40pips). Much higher and a weekly breakout will trigger, this week is key.

Edit: Chart added. 2675 is an important level as it has been tested so many times.

Edit2: Looking to add to longs at the open, removed stop for now.

For the FX traders, http://www.gfx.gbm.scotiabank.com/Chart_Feed/FX1.pdf

Looks like the Trump administration has tied the outcome of proposed Steel/Alum. Tariffs with pending NAFTA re-signing deal which won't happen until after Mexico's next General Election on July 1st imo. That's quite a long-time for the market to stay rangebound if it doesn't get over this news cycle.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trump-s ... igned.html

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Watching Dermira Inc (NASDAQ:DERM) on the open for daytrade. Simply just to try to catch a 1:2 (40c risk for 80c gain) on short-covering potential.

Jeenyus1 wrote: ↑ Looks like the Trump administration has tied the outcome of proposed Steel/Alum. Tariffs with pending NAFTA re-signing deal which won't happen until after Mexico's next General Election on July 1st imo. That's quite a long-time for the market to stay rangebound if it doesn't get over this news cycle.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trump-s ... igned.html

Looks like saner heads prevailed over the weekend. First step towards stepping back while trying to save face IMO.

Looking weak to start off the week. Nas fut breaking down on hourly 20MA. It would be nice if it supports 50MA hourly and bounce at open.

FUD in the headlines: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... 2018-03-05

ES backtesting DTL, must hold here

Edit: Added some more longs 2673.5. Is RFD suddenly slow for anyone else? Took me ages to post this.