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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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Deal Addict
Oct 22, 2014
4386 posts
2735 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote: futures rallying after cash close

bot full line SPY @265 and HXS @66

VIX closed down on the day. we have reversal on the hands
rally on Monday?
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
Elfwood wrote: rally on Monday?
I am playing for a bounce. Not terribly convincing action, but gives me hope. Medium term market will decline, 2530-2550 is the level. Longer term market still bullish, unless we trade below 2100.
I think AAPL disappoints and takes market with it. Or some other negative news comes out.

Its tough to short if you are not already short. We need bounce to reposition, i hope market rising short term to test 2700 level, maybe 2730.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Newbie
Aug 23, 2018
25 posts
7 upvotes
Mississauga, ON
Thanks for your great contribution to this thread people.

I don’t have a futures account and I’m so tempted to open one. Can you share the past year or years futures account performance also an approximate time spent per day like that?
Not asking to see if I can do it as a full time job, but to see perspectives from experts. I’m a firm believer of derivative products as useful financial instruments when they are used wisely with appropriate risk monitoring
Thanks
Ashok Mamkottil
Home Financing Advisor - Scotiabank
647 895 8195
[email protected]
Deal Addict
Oct 22, 2014
4386 posts
2735 upvotes
Toronto
Ashokto wrote: Thanks for your great contribution to this thread people.

I don’t have a futures account and I’m so tempted to open one. Can you share the past year or years futures account performance also an approximate time spent per day like that?
Not asking to see if I can do it as a full time job, but to see perspectives from experts. I’m a firm believer of derivative products as useful financial instruments when they are used wisely with appropriate risk monitoring
Thanks
Do you tango? Learn to tango before you contango.
Deal Fanatic
Feb 4, 2015
8895 posts
5165 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
dlhunter wrote: I am playing for a bounce. Not terribly convincing action, but gives me hope. Medium term market will decline, 2530-2550 is the level. Longer term market still bullish, unless we trade below 2100.
I think AAPL disappoints and takes market with it. Or some other negative news comes out.

Its tough to short if you are not already short. We need bounce to reposition, i hope market rising short term to test 2700 level, maybe 2730.
Yeah, while hoping for AAPL and perhaps FB [MSFT did their part] to lift mkt there could be another double whammy like GOOGL and AMZN.

You're right [mentioned earlier that Q4 is slow for AAPL] and if guidance weak for their Q1 [Oct to Dec] holiday sales then best to keep some cash for further sales.

_____________________________________________________

I also keep hearing about 2630 level on S&P [about 30 points lower]. How important, if at all, is that level?

Question: You are expecting bounce to 2700+ short term but real continuation of bull mkt would be retest of Feb lows [and then hopefully bounce]?
2022: BOC raised 8 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017 to 2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
Doesn't look like to me. AAPL off just 6% of its 52 w high?
There are multiple reports of lower demand for new iphones, because they are expensive. AAPL can still post good margins on older models, i guess total units could be lower.

Expecting a test of 190-195, if it drops.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
dlhunter wrote: futures rallying after cash close

bot full line SPY @265 and HXS @66

VIX closed down on the day. we have reversal on the hands
Sold SPY 269, HXS 67
Sold ES 2695, NQ 6955
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Deal Addict
Oct 22, 2014
4386 posts
2735 upvotes
Toronto
dlhunter wrote: Sold SPY 269, HXS 67
Sold ES 2695, NQ 6955
Didn't you say on Friday we bottomed?
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
3722 posts
1645 upvotes
Elfwood wrote: Didn't you say on Friday we bottomed?
Looks like I keep defending one poster but I also feel obligated to remind new folks coming in here. Please ensure that you understand this is short term trading thread aka intraday. This is our focus. Yes, you are more than welcome to discuss intermediate to long term strategies but do not point your blade to projections or targets. As far as time frame goes, our targets change every minute. That's how we trade intra day (riding volatility).
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
3722 posts
1645 upvotes
Sold 1500/1490 put exp. Nov 16 AMZN only for 50% credit back. waiting for short bounce back to 1700.
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
3722 posts
1645 upvotes
jerryhung wrote: AMZN below $1600

now they're dumping Techs/QQQ again

Nothing has held in the past 3 weeks
AMZN now at 50MA weekly support. I expect at least 100 point bounce from here if not I am comfortable rolling my puts + adding more.
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
Elfwood wrote: Didn't you say on Friday we bottomed?
Yes, bottomed short term. This was obvious when spx put in higher low and sellers got exhausted. Now, i trade around and don't overstay markets welcome signs.
Bulls will have to prove themselves if bottom is in place. Its a process, at least couple of days, when lows are defended and no new sellers emerge.
My stance is we are not out of the woods yet. Trend lines got busted, support level (2700) violated, more downside is likely.
Besides, we put another low high...
2600 would next real support. Some say 2620 is 61% retracement (friday low 2627), some traders point to feb lows. Nobody knows, get in sync with market and take what you can.

If market orderly declines to 2630-2640 by oct 31 and holds the level, then we could rally to 2800-2850 helped by AAPL.
Alternatively, if Fri low violated, recent longs will start liquidation joined by new shorts. Its powerful combination that could take markets to feb lows.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
[OP]
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3020 posts
2215 upvotes
Calgary
Downtrend line still holding price in check...personally I'm waiting for a breakout and retest before committing size on the long side.
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Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
3722 posts
1645 upvotes
I like how it bounced from right inverse shoulder and expecting to touch 50MA on hourly. Of course, only in my plan...

NQ Fut hourly

Man... just broke down lower of that right shoulder. I look to now 6725-6750 and below 6500...

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