Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Mar 20th, 2024 3:41 pm
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Good morning!
Bouncing into OPEX as expected, hopefully bears will show some teeth next week

Had to drop off my car for service and they let me test drive the new X5. So many gadgets it literally drives itself. Felt like i was in i-Robot
Mainstream self-driving cars are closer than I thought, am going to try and research investible companies in this tech space. Any ideas?
Sr. Member
Dec 25, 2015
530 posts
329 upvotes
Canada
Entered Chorus in the $5 range and sold at $6.2

They just announced that Air Canada took a large investment into them and extended their agreement.

Stock down 10% since initially pop after annoucmenet

Company trades below the NPV of AC revenue alone.

Long CHR-T
Deal Addict
Mar 22, 2010
4133 posts
2172 upvotes
margincall wrote: Good morning!
Bouncing into OPEX as expected, hopefully bears will show some teeth next week

Had to drop off my car for service and they let me test drive the new X5. So many gadgets it literally drives itself. Felt like i was in i-Robot
Mainstream self-driving cars are closer than I thought, am going to try and research investible companies in this tech space. Any ideas?
Seen clip on new X7, Beemer putting lots of money into SUV segment. Hey, what do you know, TSLA really going to excel into $500/share or mainstream will just snatch Elon's technology and make better EV/self-driving cars.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
rapashoo wrote: Seen clip on new X7, Beemer putting lots of money into SUV segment. Hey, what do you know, TSLA really going to excel into $500/share or mainstream will just snatch Elon's technology and make better EV/self-driving cars.
I would bet on the latter. BMW always lagged behind in terms of their onboard tech. If they have come so far, I'm sure that Mercedes and Audi are further ahead.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Audi A8 is Level 3 capable, Cadillac has Super Cruise, BMW has an iNext concept I believe. For another thread...
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
10332 posts
6699 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
margincall wrote: Good morning!
Bouncing into OPEX as expected, hopefully bears will show some teeth next week

Had to drop off my car for service and they let me test drive the new X5. So many gadgets it literally drives itself. Felt like i was in i-Robot
Mainstream self-driving cars are closer than I thought, am going to try and research investible companies in this tech space. Any ideas?
Not their entire business however GOOGL [waymo], NVDA, INTC [mobileye] and to lesser extent AAPL are some ideas.

Pure plays... not quite sure...
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
10332 posts
6699 upvotes
Canada, Eh!!
Got some AMZN and TQQQ for a trade plus NFLX puts... watch them all go down now :(

Last year bought FB calls and puts for earnings trade [expiry several weeks after earnings]... sold calls and puts a couple of weeks apart and neither expired worthless as thought.

Since that time I'm thinking karma will not let me win both sides again :(

Find out tomorrow!!
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes


update: "TREASURY DENIES TO WSJ ANY CHINA TARIFF RECOMMENDATIONS MADE"
Last edited by MrMom on Jan 17th, 2019 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
that's exactly the action you want to short.
pop on light volume building excess to the upside.
shorted ES 2642, covered half 2626

sold FDX 174.5
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Sr. Member
User avatar
Nov 15, 2006
527 posts
150 upvotes
Calgary
WTF.... right on 50DMA and attacked it with fake news. ... That guy should be prosecuted for so many reasons...
Keep walking through the storm. Your rainbow is waiting on the other side.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Good morning!
Futures didn't give up an inch overnight, thought we would get a dip to 2635 at least, but no cigar
SPX up 10 straight days as of yesterday, and we have strong resistance in the 2650 area.
Above 2650 opens up 2680/2700 directly.
The market has been blowing through resistance like butter, can't argue with price
Decision time...bail and try to restrike higher or take some heat?

Edit: Didn't take a decision, so taking heat it is
Edit2: Added some short RTY 1478
Last edited by margincall on Jan 18th, 2019 9:31 am, edited 3 times in total.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Nordea View: High bull trap risk

Late 2018 equity markets reached our 15-20% drawdown target. But liquidity and macro indicators have deteriorated. We see a higher probability for an earnings recession and stick to a defensive view but it is a tougher call than our 2018 bearishness.

Since mid-May 2018, we have held the view that the stock markets and economies would follow a roadmap similar to 2015-16. After a vicious December, global equity markets reached our initial target of a 15-20% drawdown from the peak, a drop in line with the 2015-16 experience. On the macro side, however, we find that the comparison with 2015-16 no longer fully holds true. We have already indicated in previous issues of Nordea View that there are several negative differences compared with that period, which could mean a more negative stock market scenario this time. Currently, we are even more worried about those differences; so, we are not yet willing to neutralise our underweight equity and corporate bond positions. We admit that the call is much harder to make now that markets have temporarily corrected to forward P/E levels that could be viewed as fair on a longer time horizon. However, profit-neutral multiples, such as EV/sales, are still much higher than at the market trough in 2016, and the risk of an earnings recession is, in our view, greater now. We also continue to recommend a value approach to equity investing, with an additional tilt towards GARP on the back of lower bond yields.

Macro strategy: Deteriorating macro outlook
After US markets posted the worst December since 1931, global equity markets reached our initial target of a 15-20% drawdown from the peak. As such, the equity market is much more attractive than it was in 2018. At the same time though, the macro environment has deteriorated, which increases the risk of an earnings recession. Various leading growth indicators are more negative than we previously assumed, central bank liquidity trends are pointing downwards and wage costs are continuing to rise. We note, on the positive side, that the Federal Reserve appears to be signalling a pause for rate hikes and that trade talks between the US and China seem to be progressing. However, we still believe that the increasing likelihood of an earnings recession favours sticking to a defensive stance towards risky assets. Our view on the equity market rebound in early 2019 is that it is likely a bull trap.

Equities: Entering the downgrade cycle
Security analysts around the world appear to be scrambling to adjust to a new reality of slowing global growth, while cost pressures from late-cyclical wages accelerate. Forward-looking P/E multiples have retraced to levels that in a historical context could be deemed reasonable, but the problem, we argue, is that the markets have discounted a profit growth slowdown, but not an earnings recession – and our indicators suggest this is becoming more likely. Style-wise, we remain stubbornly in the value camp, given the extreme valuation differential between the expensive and the cheap ends of the market. We advise complementing this bias with underperforming quality and GARP characteristics, given the pull-back in bond yields.

Equity strategy: Timing is everything – risk adjust
Today, we introduce a tool that could prove to help us in timing the market. As described earlier, major indices lost close to 20% from peak to trough. The factors behind the sluggish markets have been numerous, but in short, we explain it by overly high expectations that were challenged by deteriorating fundamentals. The core fundamental in any asset price is valuation. When valuation is extreme, be it high or low, an unexpected event is more likely to move the price. At the end of the day, the aim of marginal investors is to buy any asset cheap and sell it dear. Incorporating market risk into the equation helps. For most of 2018, our risk-adjusted valuation signalled utterly poor risk/reward. Currently this gauge is more neutral. Should it drop below 2016 levels, it could be an important stepping stone for a broad re-allocation into equities.

Full report here: https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article ... -trap-risk
Some background : Finnish bank, biggest in Nordic area, 11th largest in Europe.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
Here's what I'm looking at. Last stand for bears at the DTL

spxdjan18.PNG
Deal Fanatic
Jun 27, 2007
5507 posts
1956 upvotes
I got stopped out last night on my ES short
Was busy taking in short calls in TSLA and did not partake in shorting ES, but man, it goes up on smoke
Feels like it's a mirror of Dec 23 when Treasury called out banks regarding liquidity.

edit: ok, I am out of TSLA Feb 330, 340 and 350 calls
laying back short strangles 225/400 in Mar for $9

big spike again. it's so good we must be close
Last edited by dlhunter on Jan 18th, 2019 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat 😃
In Fed We Trust - Make ES Limit Down Great Again!
Sr. Member
User avatar
Nov 15, 2006
527 posts
150 upvotes
Calgary
Anyone here got a reliable news source that they can share? Can be subscriptions, twitter, website? Too many times the algos got the news and 5,10 mins sometimes half an hour later I still have no idea why that was the case.

Just like that spike happened mins ago. No glues :rolleyes:
Keep walking through the storm. Your rainbow is waiting on the other side.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
all4one4u wrote: Anyone here got a reliable news source that they can share? Can be subscriptions, twitter, website? Too many times the algos got the news and 5,10 mins sometimes half an hour later I still have no idea why that was the case.

Just like that spike happened mins ago. No glues :rolleyes:
Some more China fake news...apparently offering $1T import boost over 6 years
Looks like a stop run
Here you go:
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk
Sr. Member
User avatar
Nov 15, 2006
527 posts
150 upvotes
Calgary
margincall wrote: Some more China fake news...apparently offering $1T import boost over 6 years
Looks like a stop run
Here you go:
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk
oh man... getting tired of these orchestrated news. Not fair to be playing with the "best hedge fund manager" who basically can control whatever news he wants. I understand that the market has been and will always be driven by headlines but when the headlines are mostly controlled by one person... that is just #$%^&*

edit: great.. just like that another spike. Now what, they discovered gold on the moon?
Keep walking through the storm. Your rainbow is waiting on the other side.
Deal Addict
Nov 6, 2015
3026 posts
2227 upvotes
Calgary
margincall wrote: Still expecting an imminent rug pull, but waiting for some support to break
Shorting early can be hazardousWinking Face
Didn't practice what I preached, paying the price now :rolleyes:
Bailed on RTY short at 1481(-3). Holding ES for now
Edit: Taking the hit, closed ES 2662(-18). Tight consolidation overnight was a big clue, crappy end to my week but it is what it is.

Have a great weekend all!
Last edited by margincall on Jan 18th, 2019 11:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Martin Luther King Jr Day on Monday. US closed. Calling it an early close for me. Have a good weekend.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience

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