The Short-Term Trading Thread

Last month the release was late.

PPI - MoM Exp = +0.3%

YoY is less important as the base is April '20, one of the first months of the global lockdowns.
No one is looking at Initial Claims, unless there's a big surprise.

• PPI Act +0.6%, but a little lower than last months +1.0%
• Initial Claims < Exp, but last months data was revised higher.

8:30 numbers of PPI and Jobless Claims

Guess those numbers matter again now, with Inflation on people's mind

Futures pointing to a mixed open
13-May-21 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +59.40.
The futures market is pointing to a mixed open today after three straight days of losses for the major indices, driven in part by inflation fears. The S&P 500 futures trade three points, or 0.1%, above fair value with the benchmark index down 4.0% through three sessions.

Yesterday's hot CPI report for April might still be leaving a sour taste in the market, but it could soften the blow from any upside surprises in the Producer Price Index for April (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 510,000) and Continuing Claims report will be released alongside the inflation data.

Equity index futures have seen a modest uptick in recent action, presumably at the hands of dip-buyers given the huge losses growth stocks have endured this month. The S&P 500 information technology (-6.0%) and consumer discretionary (-7.1%) sectors, which contain several of the mega-cap growth stocks, are down 6-7% over the past eight sessions.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 futures dipped below their 50-day moving average (4054) earlier this morning, and they're now trading above it. This key technical level has been strong measure of support over the past 13 months, so we'll see if this positive behavior is sustained into the open.

U.S. Treasuries trade little changed after yesterday's slide in longer-dated maturities. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.16%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 1.69%. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 90.73. WTI crude futures are down 2.1%, or $1.37, to $64.71/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Boeing (BA 221.80, +1.02): +0.5% after receiving regulatory approval to fix the 737 Max electrical issue, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Vroom (VRM 39.30, +3.89): +11.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q2 revenue above consensus. Q2 EPS guidance was below consensus.
Bumble (BMBL 46.68, -0.56): -1.2% despite beating revenue estimates and guiding Q2 and FY21 revenue above consensus.
Wish (WISH 9.91, -1.50): -13.1% after missing EPS estimates and guiding Q2 revenue below consensus.

risk OFF:

Futures extend rebound effort in front of retail sales data
14-May-21 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +26.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +128.90.
The futures market has extended yesterday's rebound effort in front of the Retail Sales Report for April (Briefing.com consensus +1.8%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The S&P 500 futures trade 27 points, or 0.7%, above fair value with the benchmark index entering the session down 2.8% for the week.

Consensus estimates project retail sales growth to have slowed down from March when most households were deposited stimulus checks. Separately, import and export prices for April will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 75.1%) for April at 9:15 a.m. ET.

After the open, investors will receive the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for May (Briefing.com consensus 90.2) and Business Inventories for March (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In the meantime, a buy-the-dip mindset is overshadowing any inflation fears caused by the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports for April this week. The market might be trusting the Fed's consistent messaging that inflation pressures should be transitory, but the rebound effort could also be technically-driven after the S&P 500 successfully re-tested its 50-day moving average (4056) yesterday.

Longer-dated Treasuries are seeing demand for the second day in a row. The 10-yr yield is down three basis points to 1.64% while the 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 90.45. WTI crude futures are up 1.2%, or $0.74, to $64.56/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Walt Disney (DIS 170.89, -7.45): -4.2% after missing revenue estimates and subscriber expectations. The company beat EPS estimates, though, and the CEO told CNBC that the quarterly results matched internal projections.
Airbnb (ABNB 134.81, -0.94): -0.7% after missing EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue. The company expects Q2 revenue to be at similar level to that of 2Q19.
DoorDash (DASH 126.24, +10.75): +9.3% after beating revenue estimates.
Square (SQ 202.79, +5.66): +2.9% after unveiling new developer tools at the Square Unboxed conference.
Snowflake (SNOW 197.70, +9.46): +5.0% after the stock was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

VXX down i think on account on lower then expected retail sales numbers....peeps buying less junk....

Maybe another UP day Friday, followed by more DOWN days next week?
that was the pattern for last 2 weeks :P

Futures slip after two-day rebound
17-May-21 08:01 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -19.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -81.40.
The S&P 500 futures trade 19 points, or 0.5%, below fair value as the market gives back some of its two-day rebound rally. Investor confidence has been shaken recently by an uncertain trading environment.

That uncertainty has been fueled in part by signs of inflation and a lack of growth-stock leadership. Despite the Fed remaining consistent on its view that inflation pressures should be transitory, some have speculated that they might have to start talking about tapering asset purchases later this year as reopening activity drives re-hiring activity and inflation.

In the meantime, there aren't that many new macro catalysts this morning, although some market participants might be concerned about the latest conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Others might be viewing the weakness in crypto markets over the weekend as a risk-off indicator.

On the data front, investors will receive the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May (Briefing.com consensus 25.0) at 8:30 a.m. ET, the NAHB Housing Market Index for May (Briefing.com consensus 83.0) at 10:00 a.m. ET, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March at 4:00 p.m. ET.

U.S. Treasuries trade little changed. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 1.63%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 90.25. WTI crude futures are down 0.3% to $65.17/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Discovery (DISCA 40.90, +5.25): +14.7% after agreeing to combine with AT&T's (T 33.50, +1.26, +3.9%) WarnerMedia unit to create a new publicly traded company. AT&T shareholders will own 71% of the company while Discovery shareholders will own 29% of the new company.
ViacomCBS (VIAC 40.10, +1.19): +3.1% after former CBS CEO Moonves dropped his legal settlement, according to CNBC.

Equity futures edge higher as Treasury market remains calm
18-May-21 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +73.40.
U.S. equity index futures are pointing to a slightly higher open, as the S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, above fair value and the Nasdaq 100 futures trade 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq is getting some help from its large technology components.

Technology stocks are benefiting more from an opportunistic mindset than any specific macro development this morning, although the calm demeanor of the Treasury market in recent days has alleviated some of the inflation angst (and in effect rate/valuation angst). The Treasury market has essentially allowed the stock market to weather the inflation commentary, at least for now.

In addition, Walmart (WMT 143.00, +4.11, +3.0%) and Home Depot (HD 326.90, +6.89, +2.2%) have provided strong support for the futures market after the two Dow components beat top and bottom-line estimates. Walmart also raised its FY22 guidance.

On the data front, investors will receive Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.715 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.760 million) for April at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index (89.84, -0.32, -0.4%) has slipped below 90.00, which is a supporting factor for commodities. WTI crude futures are up 0.5% to $66.62/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Walmart (WMT 143.00, +4.11): +3.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and raising its FY22 guidance.
Home Depot (HD 326.90, +6.89): +2.2% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
AT&T (T 30.02, -1.35): -4.3% to extend yesterday's decline following its planned WarnerMedia merger with Discovery (DISDA 33.80, -0.05, -0.2%).
Macy's (M 20.07, +0.91): +4.8% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and raising FY22 EPS and revenue above consensus.

If these two tweets are correct (source: BBC), an agreement could make way for Iranian oil to come off the black mkt to China and this is maybe why CL is trading down.


Update @Charles : ... and ... denied. Par for oil rumours.

MrMom wrote: ↑ If these two tweets are correct (source: BBC), an agreement could make way for Iranian oil to come off the black mkt to China and this is maybe why CL is trading down.

i wondered why GUSH dropped from 84 to 80 in 60 seconds. That makes sense if true tho'

IMO tomorrow's UK, EU and Cdn CPIs take on more meaning in light of the eye popping US # and the BOC being the first of the G7 members to formally pull back on their bond buying.

MrMom wrote: ↑ IMO tomorrow's UK, EU and Cdn CPIs take on more meaning in light of the eye popping US # and the BOC being the first of the G7 members to formally pull back on their bond buying.

I'm keeping an eye on that as well.

And my other eye is watching the CN/CP/KSU drama. I still think CN loses the marriage to CP but surprised the trans board hasn't blown CN out yet completely for being an unfit fit.

Both the UK and EU Core CPI MoM came in less than expected. Neither were mkt movers.

10Y Bund yield is back to early 2019 levels. Still negative though. Auction result attached.

The TSX was the top N/A main index (attached) yesterday and positive @jerryhung, with o/n indices updated.

Canada - CPI (MoM) – Actual: 0.5% Forecast: 0.4%

well this is a weird one - no real reason for the risk off ....usually there's "something" ...


Stock Market Update

Dwelling on the negative as futures extend downward momentum
19-May-21 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -41.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -199.40.
The S&P 500 futures are down 42 points and trade 1.0% below fair value in an acceleration of yesterday's downward momentum. The Nasdaq 100 futures underperform and trade 1.5% below fair value.

There isn't any specific news that catalyzed the negative bias, although if one were trying to find a reason to rationalize the current indication, an ostensible starting point might be news that Senate Republicans and President Biden are still far apart on an infrastructure deal. There might have been genuine hope that their recent meeting would have produced some progress.

To lighten up the mood, Target (TGT 213.00, +6.57, +3.2%) and Lowe's (LOW 189.00, -3.75, -2.0%) beat top and bottom-line estimates, the EU reportedly reopened borders to vaccinated visitors, and Southwest Air (LUV 60.77, -1.30, -2.1%) observed that it continues to experience improvements in leisure passenger demand and bookings for May and June 2021 travel.

Unfortunately, these news items haven't cheered up the market. Instead, investors appear to be dwelling on concerns surrounding peak growth, inflation, and equity valuations.

Later, investors will receive the FOMC Minutes from the April 27-28 at 2:00 p.m. ET, although it will be a bit dated since the market has already heard from many Fed officials since then. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 1.2% following a 2.1% increase in the prior week.

Interestingly, longer-dated Treasuries are trading lower alongside the futures market, which is a sign of cash-raising efforts. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 1.66% while the 2-yr yield is flat at 0.15%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 90.02. WTI crude futures are down 2.1%, or $1.40, to $64.09/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Target (TGT 213.00, +6.57): +3.2% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
Lowe's (LOW 189.00, -3.75): -2.0% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates and saying that FY22 revenue is tracking ahead of prior target.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO 171.00, +3.31): +2.0% after beating EPS estimates and net booking expectations.
Coinbase (COIN 226.00, -13.00): -5.4% after announcing the pricing of its $1.25 bln offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2026. On a related note, cryptocurrencies are weak like equity futures right now.
Southwest Air (LUV 60.77, -1.30): -2.1% despite observing it continues to experience improvements in leisure passenger demand and bookings for May and June 2021 travel.

USDCAD unable to go lower on the CPI #. Risk off mood = USD strength.

Ugly day everywhere, Europe -2%, Futures -1~1.5%
Crypto, wow, -30% in ETH, -15% in BTC

Where will money go next?

jerryhung wrote: ↑ Ugly day everywhere, Europe -2%, Futures -1~1.5%
Crypto, wow, -30% in ETH, -15% in BTC

Where will money go next?

Live cattle (1.29%) and Lean hogs (2.30%) , they're about the only things that I can see that are up. Gold is flipping between up and down.

too much crude it appears. UCO was down almost-10% but recouped a bit to -6% on the day

im on the fence on buying the dip...on the on hand consumption should be improving with more travel...on the other hand we have a shit ton of oil and iran proly opening the taps...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-p ... eid=yhoof2