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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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Jul 11, 2011
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hebsie wrote: HUV is on a nice climb here. I don't think this is the big volatility squeeze here quite yet, but we're getting close

I think we see $15 before things settle back down next week

And I don't think we see sub $10 again for some time, but if we do, remind me of my buy target for anything sub $9.50
Well that didn't age well! lol

$9.95 and falling
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Looking ahead to next week, only the 28th and 29th will be full trading days with settlement in 2021. No institution who can help it will chose Dec 31 settle.

T+2 regular for Equities and FI => Dec 28 trade date.
T+1 for regular Spot FX settle => Dec 29 trade date.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Aug 18, 2003
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Futures Point Higher
22-Dec-21 07:55 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.70.
The stock market is on track for a modestly higher start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 12 points above fair value.

The market faced a volatile start to the week, but the current indication suggests a calmer session today, as the abbreviated week draws toward its close.

Overnight action saw a mixed, but largely flat, showing from Asian equities while European markets hold slim gains.

Reports from Washington suggest that getting Senator Manchin on board with a scaled down spending plan will be difficult and could require the plan to go through the committee process.

The market will receive a few economic reports today with the third estimate of Q3 GDP (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%; prior 2.1%) and third estimate of Q3 GDP Deflator (Briefing.com consensus 5.9%; prior 5.9%) set to be released at 8:30 ET, followed by December Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 111.5; prior 109.5) and November Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 6.50 mln; prior 6.34 mln) at 10:00 ET. Reported earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 0.6% to follow last week's 4.0% decrease.

Treasuries hold slim gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 1.47%. WTI crude is little changed at $71.12/bbl.

In U.S. corporate news:

Carmax (KMX 144.50, +7.51): +5.5% after beating Q3 expectations.
Merck (MRK 76.56, +1.02): +1.4% after announcing that the British government agreed to purchase 1.75 mln courses of Molnupiravir.
CalAmp (CAMP 8.36, -1.53): -15.5% after missing Q3 expectations.
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hebsie wrote: HUV is on a nice climb here. I don't think this is the big volatility squeeze here quite yet, but we're getting close

I think we see $15 before things settle back down next week

And I don't think we see sub $10 again for some time, but if we do, remind me of my buy target for anything sub $9.50
@MrMom

Okay, first bite
1k shares HUV @ $9.48

Start here, see where the momentum takes it

Might see another entry closer to $9.00, depends which way the wind blows
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Aug 17, 2008
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@hebsie

ESH2 volumes were Christmas level light. Not sure I see a catalyst for an expansion of volatility, although who knows with Covid. GL & thx for the post
Images
  • ESH2022_2021-12-22_16-59-39 - Copy.png
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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MrMom wrote: @hebsie

ESH2 volumes were Christmas level light. Not sure I see a catalyst for an expansion of volatility, although who knows with Covid. GL & thx for the post
Just starting to build a position, I don't mind adding more depending which way the news takes us

Anticipating a spike in post-Christmas/New Years in cases, that will surely get things frothy again

I expect HUV to be relatively quiet and trading between $9.00 - $10.00 for the next few weeks, worst case we see mid-8s and I add

VIX has been bottoming in the 18.60 = 4700 SP500 range. Do we push for 5000? Not so sure right now

That HUGE Dec 1st area spike on VIX was an anomaly as far as I'm concerned, a mass over-reaction of people trying to play a huge volatility squeeze that's not here yet

Pull that from the graph and VIX is still charting precisely where I see it, building higher-highs with each pulse upwards

Next spike will put us around $24 if all goes as planned, should propel HUV into the $13.xx range
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Aug 18, 2003
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Core PCE for November was hotter than expected
23-Dec-21 08:35 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +20.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade 20 points, or 0.4%, above fair value.

Just in, personal income increased 0.4% in November (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) following an unrevised 0.5% decline in October. Personal spending increased 0.6% in November (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following a revised 1.4% increase (from 1.3%) in October.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.6% in November while the core reading, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%). Year-over-year, the PCE Price Index was up 5.7% (versus 5.1% in October) while the core PCE Index was up 4.7% (versus 4.2% in October).

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 205,000 (Briefing.com consensus 206,000), which was unchanged from the prior week's revised count (from 206,000). As for continuing claims, they decreased to 1.859 mln from a revised count of 1.867 mln (from 1.845 mln).

Total durable orders rose 2.5% m/m in November (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%) following a revised 0.1% increase (from -0.5%) in October. Excluding transportation, durable orders rose 0.8% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following a revised 0.3% increase (from +0.5%) in October.

Futures extend rebound bid in front of data before the holidays
23-Dec-21 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +23.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +35.80.
The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points, or 0.5%, above fair value in front of a big batch of data before the market closes for Christmas Eve tomorrow. The benchmark index enters the session down 0.3% from its all-time closing high after rallying 2.8% over the past two days.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, investors will receive Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) for November, PCE Prices for November, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 206,000), and Durable Goods Orders for November (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%).

New Home Sales for November (Briefing.com consensus 770,000) and the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December (Briefing.com consensus 70.4) will be available at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The market will pay particular attention to PCE Prices component of the personal income/spending report since monetary policy has become more sensitive to inflation pressures. It's also the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

Separately, concerns about the Omicron variant continue to wane amid encouraging vaccine data from Novavax (NVAX 187.50, +4.20, +2.3%) and AstraZeneca (AZN 57.88, -0.20, -0.3%). On a related note, China locked down the western city of Xi'an, and Apple (AAPL 176.12, +0.52, +0.3%) temporarily closed eight stores because of the coronavirus.

U.S. Treasury yields have edged higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 0.68%, and the 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 1.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 96.17. WTI crude futures are up 0.4%, or $0.29, to $73.04/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Novavax (NVAX 187.50, +4.20): +2.3% after data showed its COVID-19 vaccine produced cross-reactive immune responses against the Omicron variant.
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics (OCDX 22.50, +2.71): +13.7% after agreeing to be acquired by Quidel Corporation (QDEL 154.33, -11.91, -7.2%) for $24.68/share, or approximately $6 billion in cash and stock.
Scientific Games (SGMS 67.10, +4.92): +7.9% after withdrawing its all-stock offer to acquire the remaining 19% equity interest in SciPlay (SCPL 12.65, -2.82, -18.2%) that it doesn't currently own.
Apple (AAPL 176.12, +0.52): +0.3% as investors continue to buy the dip in the market. On a related note, the company temporarily closed eight stores due to the spread of the coronavirus.
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Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10989 posts
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Hey @Charles,

Thanks for your daily posts.

Merry Christmas to you and the lurkers.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2417 posts
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MrMom wrote: Hey @Charles,

Thanks for your daily posts.

Merry Christmas to you and the lurkers.
Same to you and your family. Have a safe and fun holiday!
.
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Nov 6, 2015
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Calgary
Merry Christmas everyone!

Hope everyone had a great year, hope to be posting a little more in 2022.
Deal Guru
Feb 4, 2015
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Canada, Eh!!
Happy Holidays to All and Prosperous New Years!!

Spend time with your Loved Ones = time away from portfolio tweaking = better returns for most.
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
2017,2018: BOC raised rates 5 times and MCAP raised its prime next day each time.
2020: BOC dropped rates 3 times and MCAP waited to drop its prime to include all 3 drops.
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Apr 8, 2007
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Thank you everyone who contributed to the wonderful thread.

with a margin account with IB this year with a full time 9-5 job... almost hit 5% p/l... Wonder how you guys did this year. I wonder if anyone is interested in sharing their return?
Take care.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2417 posts
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YVR
Futures signaling higher start with hopes of a Santa sighting
27-Dec-21 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +23.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +68.80.
The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points, or 0.5%, above fair value to start the seasonally-favorable Santa Claus rally period, which is defined as the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two trading sessions of the new year. Amid a lack of market-moving news, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

If Santa were to come to Wall Street this year, investors are hoping he comes to the Nasdaq since the S&P 500 is already up 3.5% this month and the Nasdaq Composite is only up 0.7% this month.

Airlines, meanwhile, are struggling in pre-market action after thousands of flights were cancelled over the Christmas weekend due to staffing issues related to COVID-19. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 21.07, -0.31) is currently down 1.5%.

In other developments, the People's Bank of China said there will be more proactive use of policy tools, according to Bloomberg, while retail sales grew 8.5% year-over-year this holiday season, according to Mastercard SpendingPulseTM.

U.S. Treasuries trade little changed. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.70%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 1.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 96.25. WTI crude futures are down 1.4%, or $1.00, to $72.79/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS 21.07, -0.31): -1.5% after thousands of flights were cancelled over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day due to staffing issues related to COVID-19.
GoDaddy (GDDY 79.25, +3.25): +4.3% on news that Starboard Value is aiming to take a "sizeable" stake in the company, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Cigna (CI 227.00, +1.11): +0.5% after reaffirming its FY21 EPS guidance.
CNH Industrial (CNHI 19.40, +0.51): +2.7% after the stock was resumed with an Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley.
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Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Futures volumes are all very light, so I'm not going to infer anything from today.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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MrMom wrote: Futures volumes are all very light, so I'm not going to infer anything from today.
VIX is still positive. Just barely, but still positive on the day

I almost bailed on HUV Friday but I think it's still an okay hold for the next bit.

VXX trading down a bit today (-2%) but reasonably mild considering the SP is touching 4780

Don't want to risk too much erosion though on HUV, will be watching carefully, might let it go later this week if we get a pullback -- when we pullback ;)

Post-XMas OMICRON might spook some
Newbie
Aug 1, 2021
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MrMom wrote: Looking ahead to next week, only the 28th and 29th will be full trading days with settlement in 2021. No institution who can help it will chose Dec 31 settle.

T+2 regular for Equities and FI => Dec 28 trade date.
T+1 for regular Spot FX settle => Dec 29 trade date.
Just to make sure I understand correctly, if I need to sell some U.S stocks to be settled in 2021, the last day I should do it is Dec 28 2021, right?
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Aug 17, 2008
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seasky wrote: Just to make sure I understand correctly, if I need to sell some U.S stocks to be settled in 2021, the last day I should do it is Dec 28 2021, right?
No. I was talking about something else. Use Dec 31/21 as your settlement date and then work backwards = 29th.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Aug 18, 2003
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Futures grind higher in momentum trade
28-Dec-21 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +22.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +88.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade 23 points, or 0.5%, above fair value and in record territory, as momentum continues to drive the market higher. The S&P 500 enters the session up 4.9% over the last four sessions.

Risk sentiment this morning has been supported by the CDC confirming a decision to shorten the recommended isolation time for people with COVID-19 to 5 days from 10 days. That could potentially ease the work disruptions caused by the Omicron variant, as seen in airlines and cruise lines.

On a related note, a study from South Africa showed that infection from the Omicron variant increased immunity against infection from the Delta variant, according to Bloomberg.

The yield on the 2-yr Treasury note, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, is currently up five basis points to 0.75%. The 10-yr yield remains unchanged at 1.48%, flattening the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 96.01. WTI crude futures are up 1.4%, or $1.08, to $76.64/bbl.

Separately, Tesla (TSLA 1113.60, +19.66, +1.8%) could be a stock to watch for a gauge on momentum. TSLA shares are indicated higher by 1.8% in pre-market action after rising 21.6% over the past four sessions.

Today's economic data will be limited to home prices, namely the FHFA Housing Price Index for October and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (Briefing.com consensus 18.7%) at 9:00 a.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Tesla (TSLA 1113.60, +19.66): +1.8% in a momentum trade after rising 21.6% over the past four sessions.
Zoom Video (ZM 186.20, -1.24): -0.7% amid an acquisition of "certain assets" from Liminal to enhance the company's events offerings. Terms were not disclosed.
Luminar Technologies (LAZR17.93, +0.14): +0.8% after being named a top pick for 2022 at Northland Capital.
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