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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Aug 12th, 2022 9:00 am
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
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Massive S&P options trade may have roiled U.S. stocks on Thursday | Reuters
April 1, 20226:00 AM EDT

https://www.reuters.com/business/massiv ... 022-04-01/

The trade, which took place shortly before 11:00 am, was a large collar options trade, involving the sale of about 44,000 June calls and the purchase of an identical number of June put spreads, that would pay up if the S&P 500 were to decline more than 5% from its current level. A collar is an options hedging strategy involving a combination of puts and calls.

The trade also involved the sale of about 24,800 calls linked to the 4,300 level on the S&P 500, set to expire at the end of Thursday's session, as a way to guard against any sharp moves in the market during the trading session.
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Futures edge higher despite host of concerns
04-Apr-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +50.80.
The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points, or 0.2%, above fair value to start the week, as the market continues to weather a host of growth-related concerns.

Some of those concerns include the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation, the COVID lockdowns in Shanghai, the potential for a Fed policy mistake, the 2s10s spread inversion, supply chain disruptions, and an inflationary environment that includes $100/bbl oil prices ($100.29, +1.02, +1.0%).

In corporate news, Twitter (TWTR 48.80, +9.49, +24.1%) has jumped 24% in pre-market action after Elon Musk disclosed a 9.2% stake in the company. Tesla (TSLA 1090.43, +5.84, +0.5%) reported over 310,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter. Starbucks (SBUX 89.02, -2.47, -2.7%) suspended its share buyback program.

The Treasury market is trading little changed, although the 30-yr yield has risen four basis points to 2.46% after dropping 18 basis points last week. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 2.43%, and the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.39%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 98.88.

Today's economic data will be limited to Factory Orders for February (Briefing.com consensus -0.6%), which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Twitter (TWTR 48.80, +9.49): +24.1% after Elon Musk disclosed a 9.2% stake in the company. As of now, the stake is a passive one.
Tesla (TSLA 1090.43, +5.84): +0.5% after reporting over 310,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter.
Starbucks (SBUX 89.02, -2.47): -2.7% after suspending its stock repurchasing program to "invest more into our people and our stores."
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 134.34, -0.97): -0.7% after CEO Jamie Dimon warned the bank "could still lose about $1 billion over time" as a result of its direct exposure to Russia.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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YVR
Futures muted in quiet session
05-Apr-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.50.
The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value in a relatively quiet session. Investors are waiting for key data on the services sector, speeches from several Fed officials, and any new sanctions against Russia for its alleged war crimes.

The Treasury market remains a focal point, as the 2s10s spread has un-inverted. The 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 2.46% amid rate-hike expectations, and the 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 2.46% amid inflation expectations.

Oil prices are still trading over $100 per barrel ($103.75, +0.47, +0.5%) while the U.S. Dollar Index (98.94, -0.06, -0.1%) is weaker.

On the data front, investors will receive the Trade Balance for February (Briefing.com consensus -$88.5 billion) at 8:30 a.m. ET and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 58.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Today's lineup of Fed speakers includes Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (alternate voter) at 10:00 a.m. ET, Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) at 11:05 a.m. ET, and New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) at 2:00 p.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Acuity Brands (AYI 188.88, +3.81): +2.1% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
Carnival (CCL 20.45, +0.71): +3.6% after reporting the busiest booking week in its history (March 28 through April 3).
Cars.com (CARS 15.25, +0.57): +3.9% after announcing CFO Sonia Jain will resign on April 15 and reaffirming its Q1 and FY22 revenue guidance. Jandy Tomy will be interim CFO.
Cognyte Software (CGNT 8.85, -2.81): -24.1% after missing top and bottom-line estimates.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
7749 posts
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jerryhung wrote: Up and Down
US markets giving back yesterday's gain in the first 60 minutes
Brainard speaking now, important
Williams later, also important
Kashkari later, not important

BTW, NG on fuego
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Mar 10, 2018
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does it matter?
This is second time I did this for short period. I bought IFC around $183.6 few days back and today is up by $4-$5. So will sell this lot from RBC trading to cover NASDAQ losses. got tired of waiting and watching on sideline.
Tried new coffee and doughnut. Found same old stale thing. expected bill of six bucks but it was 600 million. Big mistake so the guy said don't worry it is on the house. going back to McD.
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YVR
So if you are of the belief that interest rates will be heading a lot higher - what's a good stock vehicle to make that bet? Short the TLT? anything leveraged as well?
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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YVR
Futures extending yesterday's losses as interest rates continue to rise
06-Apr-22 07:56 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -36.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -213.30.
The equity futures market is extending yesterday's losses, as interest rates continue to rise amid rate-hike/inflation concerns. The S&P 500 futures trade 36 points, or 0.8%, below fair value while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures trade 1.4% below fair value.

Specifically, the 10-yr yield is up eight basis points to 2.63% after starting the month at 2.33%, and the 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 2.55% after starting the month at 2.28%. Treasury yields are at multi-year highs, as is the U.S. Dollar Index (99.50, +0.03, unch).

After hawkish-sounding Fed commentary yesterday fueled the rise in interest rates, investors will pay heed to the FOMC Minutes from the March meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. On a related note, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (alternate FOMC voter) will speak at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Earlier this morning, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 6.3% following a 6.8% decline in the prior week. WTI crude futures are up 1.6%, or $1.57, to $103.54/bbl ahead of the weekly EIA crude inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Separately, JetBlue Airways (JBLU 13.13, -0.51, -3.7%) offered to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE 25.78, -1.14, -4.2%) for $33.00 per share in cash, implying a fully diluted equity value of $3.6 billion. Recall, Spirit previously agreed to merge with Frontier (ULCC 11.79, -0.13, -1.1%).

In U.S. Corporate news:

Spirit Airlines (SAVE 25.78, -1.14): -4.2% after confirming an unsolicited proposal from JetBlue Airways (JBLU 13.13, -0.51, -3.7%) for an all-cash acquisition transaction valued at $33.00/share, implying a fully diluted equity value of $3.6 billion. Recall, Spirit previously agreed to merge with Frontier (ULCC 11.79, -0.13, -1.1%).
RPM Inc. (RPM 83.00, -0.12): -0.1% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q4 revenue above consensus.
Simply Good Foods (SMPL 39.99, +1.59): +4.1% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and providing in-line FY22 revenue guidance.
Avis Budget (CAR 265.00, -11.71): -4.2% after the stock was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities. Transportation stocks have had a noticeably weak start to the month.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
7749 posts
8208 upvotes
Charles wrote: So if you are of the belief that interest rates will be heading a lot higher - what's a good stock vehicle to make that bet? Short the TLT? anything leveraged as well?
I don't think we'll learn anything new from todays FOMC minutes that wasn't said already, but fyi.

SQQQ

Tough to call the UST curve, but here are some options;
ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury PST (leveraged)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury TBT (leveraged)
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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YVR
Futures market stabilizes from recent losses
07-Apr-22 07:56 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +37.50.
The S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, above fair value as the market stabilizes from recent losses, which were driven by concerns about the Fed's hawkish-minded framework for monetary policy.

Officials in China and Japan, meanwhile, voiced contrasting viewpoints about monetary policy, tailored towards supporting the economy. China's state council, however, lacked urgency with a statement that more policy support would be provided at an appropriate time. Equity markets in both regions closed lower on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Treasury market is being viewed as a supportive factor for the futures market with yields trading mostly lower in a curve-steepening trade.

The 2-yr yield is down four basis points to 2.45%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 2.60%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 99.49. WTI crude futures up 2.4%, or $2.33, to $98.59/bbl after falling 5% yesterday.

On the data front, investors will receive the weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 200,000) and Continuing Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Consumer Credit report for February (Briefing.com consensus $15.5 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

HP Inc. (HPQ 39.86, +4.95): +14.2% after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) disclosed the purchase of approximately 11.1 mln HPQ shares worth nearly $400 million.
Constellation Brands (STZ 234.00, +2.19): +0.9% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding FY23 EPS in-line with expectations.
Conagra (CAG 32.95, -1.39): -4.1% after lowering its FY22 EPS guidance below consensus, overshadowing its revenue beat.
Levi Strauss (LEVI 19.92, +0.51): +2.6% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
CDK Global (CDK 54.25, +5.26): +10.7% after agreeing to be acquired by Brookfield Business Partners (BBU 27.75, +0.04, +0.1%) for $54.87/share in cash, implying a total enterprise value of $8.3 billion.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2072 posts
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YVR
yesterday's Fed notes essentially took the leg out from a big factor pushing this market to the upside. My strategy is more bearish. Short the pops sort of thing now. I even think we revisit SPY 350-375s next 12 mos.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2072 posts
1074 upvotes
YVR
Futures rise at end of volatile week
08-Apr-22 07:56 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +22.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +57.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade 22 points, or 0.5%, above fair value at the end of a volatile week. The major indices enter the session down between 0.7% (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 3.9% (Russell 2000) this week.

The positive bias appears technical in nature after the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average (now 4493) yesterday. Still, there's some trepidation associated with the Fed's hawkish mindset, the Russia-Ukraine situation, the COVID lockdowns in Shanghai, and rising interest rates.

On the latter, the 10-yr Treasury note yield is up two basis points to 2.68% while the 2-yr yield is up five basis points to 2.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 99.86. WTI crude futures are down 0.1% to $95.91/bbl.

Separately, semiconductor stocks are seeing some relief with the broader futures market but also after Taiwan Semi (TSM 101.33, +0.81, +0.8%) reported Q1 revenue above consensus. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX 442.32, +2.62, +0.6%) is up 0.6% in pre-market action.

Today's economic data will be limited to Wholesale Inventories for February (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

CrowdStrike (CRWD 225.39, +8.36): +3.9% after saying it expects to achieve $5 billion in annual recurring revenue with a total addressable market of $126 billion by 2025. The company also secured a Provisional Authorization to Operate at Impact Level 4.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD 11.63, -0.44): -3.7% after the stock was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
WD-40 (WDFC 191.99, +17.48): +10.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX 442.32, +2.62): +0.6% amid better-than-expected Q1 revenue results from Taiwan Semi (TSM 101.33, +0.81, +0.8%).
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
7749 posts
8208 upvotes
This seems like a repeat of Oct & Dec'21 articles, but you can't fight the Red Banner, via bberg tv.

"ECD Crisis Tool" headline
Images
  • ECB Crisis tool.JPG
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2072 posts
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YVR
anyone know when us inflation rate numbers are being released? the one that was over 8% last time I mean....thx
Patience comes to those who wait
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Sep 19, 2004
25565 posts
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where I belong
Charles wrote: anyone know when us inflation rate numbers are being released? the one that was over 8% last time I mean....thx
https://ca.investing.com/economic-calendar/

and more this week

Potential Market Moving Events

Monday:

11:00 NY Fed median 1 year and 3 year expected inflation

12:40: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index

8:30 Core CPI monthly and year-over-year


12:10 Fed Governor Brainard speaks

2:00 Federal Budget Deficit

6:45 Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks

Wednesday:

Producer Price Index

Thursday:

8:30 Initial Jobless claims and continuing jobless claims

8:30 Retail sales

10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

10:00 University of Michigan inflation expectations

10:00 Business Inventories

3:50 Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks

6:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks

Friday:

8:30 Empire state manufacturing index

9:15 Industrial production index
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Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
7749 posts
8208 upvotes
Charles wrote: anyone know when us inflation rate numbers are being released? the one that was over 8% last time I mean....thx
US eco data are on a schedule. If you are referring to the 7.9% CPI, see the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Update#1

Picked up some HQD

Update #2: Apr 12

Sold HQD
Last edited by MrMom on Apr 12th, 2022 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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Core CPI for March is better than feared
12-Apr-22 08:32 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: +31.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +57.80.
The S&P 500 futures trade 32 points, or 0.7%, above fair value.


Just in, total CPI rose 1.2% m/m in March, as expected, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 8.5% (versus 7.9% in February) and core CPI was up 6.5% (versus 6.4% February).

Futures edge higher in front of CPI data
12-Apr-22 07:55 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points, or 0.3%, above fair value while Treasury yields hold steady in front of the Consumer Price Index for March at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Briefing.com consensus is projecting another hot inflation report with a 1.2% m/m increase in total CPI that pushes the yr/yr rate to 8.4%. That should keep expectations elevated for the Fed to issue a 50-basis-point rate hike next month, as Fed officials have been suggesting could be the case.

Earlier, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March decreased to 93.2 from 95.7 in February, and later, the Treasury Budget for March will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.51%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.78%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up for the ninth straight session, topping the 100.00 level (100.14, +0.23, +0.2%), while WTI crude futures are rebounding 4.1%, or $3.89, to $98.17/bbl.

Separately, shares of Cisco (CSCO 51.63, -1.25, -2.4%) are down 2% in pre-market action after Citigroup downgraded the Dow component to Sell from Neutral. CarMax (KMX 99.50, -3.67, -3.6%) and Albertsons (ACI 33.50, -1.28, -3.7%) are down sharply following their earnings reports.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Cisco (CSCO 51.63, -1.25): -2.4% after the stock was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup.
CarMax (KMX 99.50, -3.67): -3.6% after missing EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue.
Albertsons (ACI 33.50, -1.28): -3.7% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates.
American Airlines (AAL 16.95, -0.02): -0.1% despite raising its Q1 revenue guidance. The company now expects a revenue decline of 16% from Q1 of 2019 (prior guidance decline of 17%).
CrowdStrike (CRWD 224.80, +8.20): +3.8% after the stock was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
Patience comes to those who wait

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