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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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  • Feb 6th, 2023 11:23 pm
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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Futures rise at end of tough week
20-May-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +46.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +188.00.
The S&P 500 futures are up 47 points and trade 1.2% above fair value at the end of a tough week in which the benchmark index is down 3.1%. Risk sentiment has been aided by a strong showing in foreign markets, including Chinese markets following an unexpected move by China's central bank.

Specifically, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut its five-year prime rate by 15 basis points to 4.45% while leaving its key one-year lending rate steady at 3.7%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.6% on Friday. The Europe Stoxx 600 is currently up 1.6%.

The futures market is overlooking disappointing earnings results and guidance from another retailer, Ross Stores (ROST 67.05, -25.65, -27.7%), which is down 28% in pre-market action, as well as disappointing results and guidance from semiconductor company Applied Materials (AMAT 109.50, -1.24, -1.1%).

The Treasury market, meanwhile, is a bit more reserved right now. The 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 2.63%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 102.95. WTI crude is up 0.1% to $110.00/bbl.

Separately, Russia is preparing to annex portions of southeast Ukraine, according to The New York Times.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Ross Stores (ROST 67.05, -25.65): -27.7% after missing top and bottom-line estimates, guiding Q2 EPS below consensus, and guiding FY23 EPS below consensus.
Deere (DE 347.00, -17.62): -4.8% after missing revenue estimates. Deere beat EPS estimates and raised its FY22 net income guidance.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW 489.90, +53.53): +12.3% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q4 EPS and revenue above consensus.
Foot Locker (FL 30.90, +0.60): +2.0% after beating EPS estimates and reaffirming its full-year guidance.
Applied Materials (AMAT 109.50, -1.24): -1.1% after missing top and bottom-line estimates and guiding JulQ EPS and revenue below consensus.
Patience comes to those who wait
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Aug 17, 2008
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bLuPhYrE wrote: i like how americans freaking out about paying 5$ a gallon when we are literally paying over 7$ a gallon here.
How about the Europeans? They also have a higher proportion of diesel engines. Fill up Money BagMoney BagMoney Bag

Update #1

Hmmm... Maybe I'm wrong.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Germ ... el_prices/

I'll need to check with my German friends who own a diesel now.
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MrMom wrote: How about the Europeans? They also have a higher proportion of diesel engines. Fill up Money BagMoney BagMoney Bag

Update #1

Hmmm... Maybe I'm wrong.

https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Germ ... el_prices/

I'll need to check with my German friends who own a diesel now.
considering how much transport uses diesel in NA alone you can understand how cost of goods is increasing rapidly. How much more money can corporations pass off to the consumer? In my eyes not much more. Peak earnings last year.
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Not sure where the data comes from, but here is a comparison between countries for gas prices:

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MoneyHypeMike wrote: Not sure where the data comes from, but here is a comparison between countries for gas prices:

that was 3 days ago. We are way past that number now Face With Tears Of Joy

also WTF im moving to venezuela
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jerryhung wrote: Bear market if anyone still doubts it
never we going back to ATH next month. Face With Tears Of Joy
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Poised for "risk on" start
23-May-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +39.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +74.00.
The S&P 500 futures are up 36 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value as the late-day rally effort on Friday, which helped the S&P 500 escape from bear market territory, has carried over this morning. In the same vein, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 76 points and are 0.6% above fair value while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 293 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value.

The positive leaning this morning will be deemed a "risk-on trade," as most stocks are expected to benefit from the improved sentiment. In effect, this is more of a relief trade on the idea that things didn't unravel Friday after the S&P 500 fell more than 20% from its January high. Instead, buyers stepped up to defend prices, fostering some hope that the market could be poised for an overdue, and meaningful, rebound bid.

Reports that Broadcom (AVGO) is talking about a possible acquisition of VMWare (VMW), and that Electronic Arts (EA) is looking for a sale or merger, has helped contribute to the positive bias. Additionally, some weakening in the dollar, which stems from ECB President Lagarde teasing the prospect of exiting negative rates by the end of Q3, and an acknowledgment from President Biden that he is considering lifting some Chinese tariffs to help ease inflation pressures, have also aided the buying interest.

The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.83%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.9% to 102.20. WTI crude futures are 0.7% to $111.08/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

VMWare (VMW 117.40, +21.69, +22.7%): rallying on Bloomberg report that Broadcom (AVGO) is in talks to acquire the company
Electronic Arts (EA 135.10, +4.34, +3.3%): According to news site Puck, company is looking for a merger partner or possible sale
Eli Lilly (LLY 303.66, +4.81, +1.6%): SVB Securities initiates coverage with Outperform rating
Autodesk (ADSK 184.36, -7.05, -3.7%): Deutsche bank downgrades to Hold from Buy
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
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Futures market snaps on a SNAP warning
24-May-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -41.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -210.40.
The S&P 500 futures are down 44 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 209 points and are trading 1.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 219 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.

The negative disposition has been driven primarily by a warning from Snap (SNAP) that it expects its Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be below the low end of its prior guidance range as macro conditions have deteriorated faster and further than anticipated. The context behind that warning has weighed on investor sentiment from a broader standpoint and it has undercut a number of other social media stocks more directly that derive a large chunk of revenue from online advertising services. That includes names like Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (FB), Twitter (TWTR), and Pinterest (PINS).

Separately, a batch of mostly weaker than expected preliminary PMI readings for May out of the eurozone have added to concerns about slowing growth along with reports that Beijing is stepping up quarantine efforts to stop the spread of COVID.

The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 101.94. WTI crude futures are up 0.3% to $110.58/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Snap (SNAP 15.71, -6.76, -30.0%): says it expects Q2 revenues and adjusted EBITDA to be below low end of prior guidance range as macro conditions deteriorated faster and further than anticipated
Best Buy (BBY 73.80, +1.21, +1.7%): tops fiscal Q1 estimates, but lowers FY23 EPS guidance range and indicates revenues expected to be below consensus
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 21.13, -5.60, -21.0%): drops sharply following large fiscal Q1 earnings miss and disappointing revenue guidance
Roblox (RBLX 28.49, -1.57, -5.2%): drops after Atlantic Equities cuts rating to Neutral from Overweight
Patience comes to those who wait
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Aug 17, 2008
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via Refinitiv

Coming Up
Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its May 3-4 policy meeting. <ed: look at that, exactly 3 weeks>

Orders for durable goods are expected to have risen 0.6% in April, after rising 1.1% in the earlier month.
Meanwhile, orders excluding transportation equipment is likely to have risen 0.5% in April, compared with a 1.3% rise in March. Separately, the U.S. average 30-year mortgage rate data is set for release.

Chip designer Nvidia Corp is expected to post a rise in first-quarter revenue driven by high demand for its data center and artificial intelligence chips.

PC maker Dell Technologies Inc is expected to post a rise in first-quarter revenue from steady demand for laptops and computers. Investors and analysts will look for impact of pausing Russia sales on its business and on the future quarters.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives commencement remarks before the Johns Hopkins University School of Advance International Studies 2022 commencement ceremony in Washington.

May 3rd, 2022 9:44 pm #12116
MrMom wrote: ...

The FOMC Announcement is at 2pm ET.

Bernanke first started the Q&A at 2:30pm ET to give more transparency.

"The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report."

Who gives a flying F what Biden has to say on the economy? Say it at 2pm or say it at 2am, no one cares.
Apologies @Charles
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Aug 18, 2003
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Buyers lacking conviction
25-May-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -66.60.
The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 65 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 126 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Buyers continue to lack much conviction as growth concerns persist.

Fresh reminders today include reports that Russia is stepping up its military effort in eastern Ukraine, that Beijing continues to wrestle with curbs on activity to try to stop the spread of Covid, ECB member Knot touting the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in July, the weekly mortgage applications report showing no growth in purchase applications, and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) issuing an FY23 EPS outlook that is well below expectations to account for the impact of "evolving macroeconomic conditions."

We'll hear more about those evolving conditions and how the Fed was considering them at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting when the minutes from that meeting are released today at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The 10-yr note is down three basis points to 2.73%. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 2.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.5% to 102.33. WTI crude futures are up 1.1% to $110.95/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 58.64, -12.60, -17.7%): beats by $0.32, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS well below consensus to reflect impact of "evolving macroeconomic conditions"
Toll Brothers (TOL 46.24, +1.70, +3.8%): beats by $0.23, beats on revs; expects JulQ deliveries of 2,750 units; expects FY22 deliveries of 11,000-11,500 units; authorized approximately $900 mln for share buybacks
Wendy's (WEN 17.72, +1.45, +8.9%): Trian Fund filing saying it intends to explore and evaluate potential transactions with company to enhance shareholder value
Nordstrom (JWN 21.35, +0.67, +3.2%): misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; authorizes a new $500 mln share repurchase program
Patience comes to those who wait
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bLuPhYrE wrote: that was 3 days ago. We are way past that number now Face With Tears Of Joy

also WTF im moving to venezuela
lol Venezuela has the highest murder rate per capita.. probably die getting gas there man..
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land
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faken wrote: lol Venezuela has the highest murder rate per capita.. probably die getting gas there man..
Gas in Venezuela is $0.03/litre. Talk about killing for less, lol.
Koodo $40/6GB
Public Mobile $40/15GB, $35/20GB, lot less with rewards
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Aug 18, 2003
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A retail roundup
26-May-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +25.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +29.00.
The S&P 500 future are up 24 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 197 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.

The tone had been cautious in the wake of disappointing fiscal Q2 revenue guidance from NVIDIA (NVDA), but a spate of better-than-expected/better-than-feared earnings results and outlooks from the retail space, along with an increased Q2 revenue growth outlook from Southwest Airlines (LUV) and JetBlue (JBLU), have put some spring in the futures market's step.

Additionally, guidance from Shanghai that its lockdown should end June 1, and a burgeoning belief that the market is due for a notable rebound, with some help from month-end rebalancing activity, has also contributed to the positive bias.

Today's economic releases include the second estimate for Q1 GDP, Weekly Initial Claims, and Pending Home Sales for April.

The 10-yr note yield is up one tick to 2.76% after flirting with 2.70% overnight. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 101.94. WTI crude futures are up 0.8% to $111.17/bbl.

In U.S. Corporate news:

NVIDIA (NVDA 162.98, -6.77, -4.0%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides JulQ revs below consensus due to Russia and COVID lockdowns in China; increased and extended share repurchase program to $15.0 bln
VMWare (VMW 121.88, +1.34, +1.1%): Broadcom (AVGO 523.00, -8.63, -1.6%) to acquire VMware for ~$61 billion, or $142.50, in cash and stock
Macy's (M 21.90, +2.69, +14.0%): beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; Q1 comps +12.8%
Williams-Sonoma (WSM 124.89, +9.91, +8.6%): beats by $0.61, beats on revs, comps of +9.5%; reiterated FY23 revenue growth of mid-to-high single-digit percentage
Dollar General (DG 218.00, +22.66, +11.6%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, guides FY23 revs above consensus; raises comp guidance
Southwest Airlines (LUV 43.36, +0.91, +2.1%): sees Q2 (Jun) revs growth of +12-15% yr/yr, up from prior guidance of +8-12% yr/yr
Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR 153.36, +19.77, +14.8%): beats by $0.39, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Snowflake (SNOW 117.11, -15.66, -11.8%): Reports Q1 (Apr) GAAP loss of $(0.53) per share; revenues rose 84.5% year/year to $422.37 mln; For Q2 (Jul), company expects product revs of $435-440 mln
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2276 posts
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YVR
Holding resilient line
27-May-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.80.
The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 20 points but are trading 0.1% above fair value.

It has been a very good week thus far for the major indices, which have shown a propensity to emphasize positive news over bad news (or to find the good in the bad). The scope of losses coming into this week (S&P 500 and Nasdaq down seven straight weeks and DJIA down eight straight weeks) has created a setup for that mentality and has fostered bargain-hunting interest in many beaten-down stocks.

The market's resilient disposition is on display again this morning, as market participants are seemingly looking through disappointing earnings and guidance from Gap (GPS) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), and indications of margin pressures at Costco (COST), to upbeat results and guidance from the likes of Dell (DELL) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) as grounding points.

Soon, they will be looking at the April Personal Income and Spending Report. It is out at 8:30 a.m. ET and it will include the Fed's preferred inflation gauge in the form of the core-PCE Price Index. Market participants are hoping to see some welcome moderation in the year-over-year rate of core-PCE to feed the peak inflation narrative.

The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 2.73% in front of the report. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 101.78. WTI crude futures are down 0.7% to $113.44/bbl.

In U.S. corporate news:

Dell (DELL 47.89, +3.96, +9.0%): beats by $0.45, beats on revs; guides EPS and revs above consensus for both Q2 and full year
Gap, Inc. (GPS 9.06, -2.06, -18.5%): misses by $0.31, reports revs in-line, comps -14%; guides FY23 EPS and revenue below consensus; expects results to improve modestly in the back half of the year
Costco (COST 456.86, -8.13, -1.8%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs, adjusted comparable sales of +10.8%; membership renewal rates hit all-time highs in Q3
Ulta Beauty (ULTA 406.07, +28.11, +7.4%): beats by $1.81, beats on revs, comps of +18%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance to +6-8% from +3-4%
Workday (WDAY 153.00, -15.15, -9.0%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; expects JulQ subscription revenue growth of +22% yr/yr; raises FY23 subscription revenue slightly to $5.537-5.557 bln
Big Lots (BIG 25.10, -5.55, -18.1%): misses by $1.33, misses on revs; sees promotional activity driving its second quarter gross margin rate into the low-30's
Patience comes to those who wait
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Notable that Briefing dot com and RFD give the Fed's preferred inflation measure out this morning ZERO pixels of screen time.
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YVR
market sees numbers as bullish....

The PCE Price Index increased 0.2% in April while the core reading, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). Year-over-year, the PCE Price Index was up 6.3% (versus 6.6% in March) while the core PCE Index was up 4.9% (versus 5.2% in March).

Personal income increased 0.4% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) following a 0.5% increase in March. Personal spending increased 0.9% in April (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) following a revised 1.4% increase (from +1.1%) in March.

The Advance report for International Trade in Goods for April showed a deficit of $105.9 billion, versus a revised $125.9 billion (from $125.3 billion) in March. The Advance report for Retail Inventories for April rose 0.7%, and the Advance report for Wholesale Inventories for April rose 2.1%.
Patience comes to those who wait

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