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The Short-Term Trading Thread

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rapashoo wrote: Have we bottomed?

Some of tech names look really attractive based on their PE's.
Yes, please. I am not smelling any dead cats today.
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rapashoo wrote: Have we bottomed?

Some of tech names look really attractive based on their PE's.
I went to see Top Gun this afternoon, so no idea what's been happening, but this week has been mostly lower volumes, so we are still on the "highway to the danger zone" IMO. Will need more confirmation I guess.

Update

Have ppl come to grips with the interest changes coming is the question?

Mar 12th, 2021 9:23 am #11154
Nov 16th, 2021 2:06 pm #33
Last edited by MrMom on May 27th, 2022 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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what a week in indicies, after 7-8 weeks DOWN
still afraid to trust it

but QQQ recovered like +8%
SOXS/SQQQ lost -20%


And Cryptoes aren't following the markets, strange
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jerryhung wrote: what a week in indicies, after 7-8 weeks DOWN
still afraid to trust it

but QQQ recovered like +8%
SOXS/SQQQ lost -20%


And Cryptoes aren't following the markets, strange
exactly my thoughts. crypto used to be pretty correlated to QQQ
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MrMom wrote: I went to see Top Gun this afternoon, so no idea what's been happening, but this week has been mostly lower volumes, so we are still on the "highway to the danger zone" IMO. Will need more confirmation I guess.

Update

Have ppl come to grips with the interest changes coming is the question?

Mar 12th, 2021 9:23 am #11154
Nov 16th, 2021 2:06 pm #33
Skeptical of this rally myself. Some improvements in macro but timing suspicious. In addition to low volumes, it’s month end (possible window dressing), some big players were in Davos, and it’s rallying/pumping to the start of QT on June 1. 425 on SPY is the high post-FOMC and 426 is the 50 SMA. Will be looking at puts in the 420s.
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I don't follow ZH and I don't like to quote or reference ZH, but I can make exceptions.

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A macro focus
31-May-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -20.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 10 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 222 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.

Coming off the extended Memorial Day weekend, the corporate news flow is light in terms of market-moving relevance, yet a rash of macro considerations has stirred some mixed trading interest.

The biggest talking points this morning include an agreement by EU leaders to ban 90% of Russian crude oil imports by the end of the year, Shanghai engaging in more reopening efforts, record-high inflation prints for the eurozone in May, Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) endorsing 50 basis point rate hikes at several meetings and indicating his support for a policy rate above neutral by the end of the year, and China reporting manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data for May that was improved from April but still in contraction territory with sub-50 readings.

President Biden plans to meet with Fed Chair Powell at the White House today to discuss the economy, but has said he will not do anything to compromise the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy.

This week will be a big week for economic data, starting with the May Consumer Confidence Index today (10:00 ET) and followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index on Wednesday and the May Employment Situation and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reports on Friday.

The 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 2.82% and the 2-yr note yield is up nine basis points to 2.55%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 101.93. WTI crude futures, in response to the EU decision on Russian crude oil imports, are up 3.1% to $118.62/bbl.

In corporate news:

Yamana Gold (AUY 5.98, +0.81, +15.7%): to be acquired by Gold Fields (GFI) for $6.7 bln in stock
CatchMark Timber Trust (CTT 11.18, +2.88, +34.7%): to combine with PotlatchDeltic (PCH) in an all-stock transaction currently valued at $12.88 per share
Zoom Video (ZM 112.01, +1.59, +1.4%): Daiwa double upgrades to Outperform from Underperform
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Riding the coattails of Salesforce
01-Jun-22 08:01 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.20.
The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.3 % above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 161 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

The major indices appear poised for a modestly higher start thanks in large part to a big move in shares of Dow component Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), which raised its FY23 profit outlook. Relatively good earnings news from Victoria's Secret (VSCO) and Capri Holdings (CPRI) has also been supportive along with an uptick in shares of Meta Platforms (FB), which are responding to the news that the Supreme Court blocked a Texas law that would have banned social media companies from removing certain posts.

Still, there is some reservation in the air as market participants digest Atlanta Fed President Bostic's remark that his prior comments pertaining to a possible "pause" in September should not be interpreted as being a Fed put. On a somewhat related note, Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged that inflation is too high; meanwhile, WTI crude futures ($115.93, +1.26, +1.1%) are again pushing higher after testing $120.00/bbl yesterday.

The Fed begins its balance sheet runoff program today amid the release of some key economic releases that include the April JOLTS - Job Openings Report and the May ISM Manufacturing Index.

The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.88% and the 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 2.59%.

In corporate news:

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM 174.45, +14.21, +8.9%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; raises FY23 EPS guidance above consensus, raises non-GAAP operating margin guidance, lowers revenue guidance below consensus
Ambarella (AMBA 80.40, -4.82, -5.7%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ revs below consensus
HP, Inc. (HPQ 39.10, +0.26, +0.7%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS mostly above consensus; guides FY22 EPS mostly above consensus
Victoria's Secret (VSCO 45.00, +3.79, +9.2%): beats by $0.27, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revenue in-line
Meta Platforms (FB 194.59, +0.95, +0.5%): Supreme Court blocks Texas law that would ban social media companies from removing certain posts, but it could soon return to the Supreme Court, according to New York Times
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The Fed begins its balance sheet runoff program today
Aug 30th, 2021 10:33 pm #11554
MrMom wrote: How many of the new Repo experts know what GC is?

If the Treasury announced a reduced Quarterly Refunding and the Fed were to buy fewer Treasuries, would that be tapering?

Why am I asking that? Thinking Face
My bold.

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
May 2, 2022
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0755

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2022 and July – September 2022 quarters.[2]

During the April – June 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to pay down $26 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion.[3] The borrowing estimate is $92 billion lower than announced in January 2022, primarily due to an increase in receipts, partially offset by increases in outlays and the end-of-June cash balance.
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MrMom wrote: Aug 30th, 2021 10:33 pm #11554



My bold.

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
May 2, 2022
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0755

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2022 and July – September 2022 quarters.[2]

During the April – June 2022 quarter, Treasury expects to pay down $26 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion.[3] The borrowing estimate is $92 billion lower than announced in January 2022, primarily due to an increase in receipts, partially offset by increases in outlays and the end-of-June cash balance.
Should this have any pressure on TLT? It's been beaten up but moving up a bit this morning.
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@Charles FYI, not checking in as often. The news I posted is a month old, but on its' own it would have been positive. Mkt liquidity in T's is poor, so sharp moves should be expected. Moves could be caused by flows in the underlying you or others don't see.

I think this is still the key mkt driver, Nov 16th, 2021 2:06 pm #33 (Inflation & Interest Rates Discussion)
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MrMom wrote: How many of the new Repo experts know what GC is?

If the Treasury announced a reduced Quarterly Refunding and the Fed were to buy fewer Treasuries, would that be tapering?

Why am I asking that? Thinking Face
Stupid question, what does GC stand for? General collateral?
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i'm laughing so hard right now. You know ive been on deals too much when I thought it was GiftCard
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Oil drops, stocks pop
02-Jun-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +20.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +81.70.
The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 83 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 139 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.

The positive bias in the futures market has been helped by a pullback in oil prices and some better-than-expected earnings results and reassuring guidance from tech stocks NetApp (NTAP), MongoDB (MDB), and Elastic (ESTC).

WTI crude futures are down 2.5% to $112.37/bbl following an FT report that suggests Saudi Arabia is ready to step up production to compensate for any significant drop in output from Russia due to the EU sanctions. Oil futures flirted with $120.00/bbl on Tuesday.

Today's session will feature a bevy of economic data, starting with the May ADP Employment Change Report at 8:15 a.m. ET and followed by the weekly initial claims and revised Q1 Productivity reports at 8:30 a.m. ET. The April Factory Orders Report will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Natural gas and oil inventory reports from the EIA will hit the wires at 10:30 a.m. ET and 11:00 a.m. ET, respectively.

The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 2.91% and the 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 2.65%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 102.15.

In corporate news:

Meta Platforms (FB 189.94, +1.30, +0.7%): Mark Zuckerberg confirms Sheryl Sandberg will depart FB as COO, Javier Olivan will become new COO
NetApp (NTAP 75.00, +2.49, +3.4%): beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB 263.20, +21.39, +8.9%): beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Elastic (ESTC 65.98, +4.04, +6.5%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 15.09, -0.69, -4.4%): misses by $0.01, misses on revs, as-a-service orders increased 107%; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line, reiterates revenue growth of 3-4%, adjusted for currency
Chewy (CHWY 28.22, +4.73, +20.1%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance
PVH Corp (PVH 74.00, +2.89, +4.1%): beats by $0.34, beats on revs; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; increases planned 2022 share repurchases to $400 mln
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Microsoft Corp. cut sales and earnings guidance for the current quarter, citing the impact of foreign-exchange rates as the stronger U.S. dollar takes a toll

https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft- ... 1654176285
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Update

Headline Act +390k > Exp +325K
MoM Avg Hrly Earnings +0.3% < exp +0.4%, Participation Rate 62.3% vs prev 62.2%

Last edited by MrMom on Jun 3rd, 2022 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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and Cryptoes have certainly decoupled from the stock markets, only going down


Crypto firms say thousands of digital currencies will collapse, compare market to early dotcom days cnb.cx/3ap1PEI
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jerryhung wrote: and Cryptoes have certainly decoupled from the stock markets, only going down


Crypto firms say thousands of digital currencies will collapse, compare market to early dotcom days cnb.cx/3ap1PEI
Dude, you're like the most depressing person here

What's your angle? Are you invested in crypto or do you just like to cherry pick the news for us?
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Musk has a "super bad feeling" about the economy
03-Jun-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -29.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -152.90.
The S&P 500 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 151 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 180 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

Concerns about economic conditions are behind the weakness seen this morning in the futures market.

A declaration from RH, Inc. (RH) that it has seen a softening in demand, weaker-than-expected retail sales out of Germany, and higher-than-expected inflation out of South Korea are among the focal points, but the main focal point is Elon Musk's remark that he has a "super bad feeling" about the economy. Musk indicated that Tesla (TSLA) needs to cut about 10% of its staff.

That remark follows on the heels of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon saying earlier in the week that he thinks an "economic hurricane" is coming and it also comes in front of today's release of the Employment Situation Report for May (8:30 a.m. ET) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May (10:00 a.m. ET).

The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.92%. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 101.87. WTI crude futures are down 0.3% to $116.48/bbl.

In corporate news:

Tesla (TSLA 735.45, -39.55, -5.1%): Elon Musk says he has "super bad feeling" about economy, that Tesla needs to cut about 10% of jobs
Apple (AAPL 148.12, -3.09, -2.0%): European Commission has proposed plan to mandate a universal charging adapter for smartphones using standard USB-C cable
lululemon (LULU 303.33, +0.75, +0.3%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Okta (OKTA 108.35, +14.67, +15.7%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
RH, Inc. (RH 289.00, -12.94, -4.3%): beats by $2.45, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus, has experienced a softening in demand which began at time of Russian invasion Ukraine; also increased share repurchase authorization by $2.0 bln
Travelers (TRV 175.71, -2.35, -1.3%): Goldman Sachs downgrades to Sell from Neutral on margin concerns
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On the rebound
06-Jun-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +46.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +184.40.
The S&P 500 futures are up 45 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 186 points and are trading 1.5% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 284 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.

There is a nice bid in the futures market to begin the week. Market participants have been heartened by news reports indicating COVID restrictions in China's largest cities are being rolled back. Also, there is a buzz around many Chinese-listed stocks following a report that Chinese regulators are ending their probe of Didi (DIDI). There is also some reporting that suggests the Biden Administration is considering lifting tariffs on some imported Chinese goods.

Separately, there is a nice rebound bid in Tesla (TSLA) after Elon Musk clarified that the company total headcount will increase, but that salaried positions should be fairly flat. That update has taken off some of the edge from his remark last Friday discussing employment at Tesla and his "super bad feeling" about the economy.

There is no economic data of note out of the U.S. today. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 2.96%. WTI crude futures, which topped $120.00/bbl overnight, are up 0.1% to $118.96/bbl.

In corporate news:

Tesla (TSLA 721.25, +17.70, +2.5%): Jumps after Elon Musk tweets, "Total headcount will increase, but salaried should be fairly flat"
Apple (AAPL 147.15, +1.77, +1.2%): Moving up in front of Worldwide Developers Conference today
Spirit Airlines (SAVE 21.80, +1.06, +5.1%): JetBlue (JBLU) raises bid to acquire airline to $31.50/sh cash
Amazon.com (AMZN 2447.00): 20-for-1 stock split takes effect today
Didi (DIDI 2.89, +1.04, +56.2%): Reports indicate Chinese regulators are ending their probe of the company
.

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