Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

  • Last Updated:
  • Sep 23rd, 2022 4:09 pm
Deal Expert
User avatar
Sep 19, 2004
25712 posts
7615 upvotes
where I belong
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 30 2022
For Thursday the technical indicators are more bearish than earlier in the week. While the closing candlestick still points to a possible bounce attempt yet again, it also indicates a lower day is ahead.

The Lower Bollinger Band falling rapidly and all major moving averages falling, signals that a move lower could be starting perhaps as soon as Wednesday. This is setting the index up to close below 3800 on Thursday especially as inflation readings on Thursday probably will not show a decline or that inflation has peaked, as many analysts have been advising.

Thursday:

8:30 PCE Inflation (monthly)

8:30 Core PCE Inflation (monthly)

8:30 PCE Inflation year-over-year

8:30 Core PCE Inflation year-over-year

8:30 Real disposable income

8:30 Real consumer spending

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

9:45 Chicago PMI
Which Credit Cards to sign up? >> Jerry's Mega Thread of Credit Cards Q&A
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Growth concerns feed risk off tone
30-Jun-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -60.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -227.60.
The S&P 500 futures are down 57 points and are trading 1.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 199 points and are trading 2.0% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 399 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value.

Growth concerns are leading the way this morning. China had weaker-than-expected PMI data released overnight. Japan's May industrial production fell to a level not seen since the start of the pandemic. Luxury furnishing retailer RH Inc. (RH) issued its second fiscal year net revenue growth warning in less than a month, citing a "deteriorating macro economic environment".

The cryptocurrencies have taken a hit recently with bitcoin falling below the $20,000 to $19,030.41 while Ethereum fell to $1,018.00. This is on the heels of the SEC's decision to reject Grayscale's application to turn its GBTC vehicle into an ETF and Grayscale's subsequent lawsuit.

The economic data released before the open today will include the closely watched PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) at 8:30 ET. That will be part of the Personal Income and Spending report for May.

The 2-yr note yield is currently down seven basis points to 3.00%. The 10-yr note yield is down five to 3.04%.

In corporate news:

RH (RH 213.51, -23.81, -10.0%): RH lowered FY22 net revenue and adjusted operating margin guidance due to "deteriorating macroeconomic environment"; maintains Q2 guidance
SMART Global Holdings (SGH 17.75, -2.53, -12.5%): SMART Global beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; also to acquire Stratus Technologies
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 39.90, -0.97, -2.4%): Walgreens Boots Alliance beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance
Constellation Brands (STZ 244.50, +0.87, +0.4%): Constellation Brands beats by $0.39, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR 165.00, -14.59, -8.2%): MicroStrategy Inc. is down sharply as bitcoin falls below $20,000
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
MrMom wrote: Have a great long weekend @Charles. Volumes have been light all week.
You too! Enjoy.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Futures on soft side to begin July
01-Jul-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -26.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -75.30.
The S&P 500 futures are down 26 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 75 points and are trading 6.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 133 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

There is a lack of buyer interest in the futures for the major indices this morning after Mircon (MU) warned of weakening demand and the Eurozone reported a worse-than-expected inflation rate of 8.6%.

Micron said after the close yesterday, "the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023." This warning has implications for companies that use Micron's semiconductors, including smartphone and PC producers.

The Eurozone inflation reached a new record high in June ahead of the ECB's first key rate hike in 11 years. Headline inflation was 8.6% year-over-year last month versus an estimated 8.4%.

The 2 yr-note yield is down nine basis points to 2.85% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 2.95%. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.8% to $108.71/bbl.

Separately, the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI for June will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Market participation might be light today ahead of the Independence Day weekend. As a reminder, markets are closed on Monday.

In corporate news:

Micron (MU 52.80, -2.48, -4.5%): Micron beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; says industry demand environment has weakened recently
Kohl's (KSS 29.79, -5.90, -16.5%): Franchise Group negotiations to acquire Kohl’s Corporation have terminated; Kohl's also lowers Q2 sales outlook
American Airlines (AAL 12.70, +0.02, +0.2%): American Airlines will offer pilots a 17% raise.
TSMC (TSM 78.70, -3.05, -3.7%): TSMC is seeing clients scale back their orders.
FedEx (FDX 222.75, -3.96, -1.8%): Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg; price target cut to $275 from $330.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Growth concerns drive negative disposition
05-Jul-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -36.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -156.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down X points and are trading 1.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 243 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.

The early disposition leans negatively with growth concerns continuing to act as a headwind. Those concerns have shown up in a flattening Treasury yield curve and the euro trading at a 20-year low against the dollar (EUR/USD currently 1.0295).

Other macro factors at work in keeping a lid on bullish sentiment include reports that the eurozone's Sentix Economic Confidence Index saw its lowest reading on Monday (-26.4) since May 2020, South Korea had its highest inflation print (6.0% yr/yr) since 1998, the Yangtze Delta region has seen a rise in COVID cases, and oil and gas workers in Norway have gone on strike over pay.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points, as expected, to 1.35%, another crypto lender, Vauld, has paused customer withdrawals, Russia is shutting down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for summer maintenance work, and the Biden Administration is said to be close to rolling back tariffs on some Chinese imports.

Coming off the holiday weekend, there are a lot of moving headline parts with respect to macro factors, yet the market-moving corporate news is sparse.

The 2-yr note yield and the 10-yr note yield are both yielding 2.89%.

In corporate news:

Occidental Petroleum (OXY 60.91, +0.47, +0.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) bought 9,887,040 shares worth ~$582.4mln
Cowen Group (COWN 27.78, +3.74, +15.6%): Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is considering possible bid for COWN, according to Bloomberg
Tesla (TSLA 674.06, -7.73, -1.1%): In the second quarter, co produced over 258,000 vehicles and delivered over 254,000 vehicles; June 2022 was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla's history
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8006 posts
8594 upvotes
@Charles , DK where Briefing gets their Rates data from, but the UST curve is close flat 2s to 10s closer to 2.83% via 2 sources. UST2s5s are the tightest since Mar'20 <ed: at even> fwiw.

Update

DXY/USD on fire
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Waiting on follow through from buyers
06-Jul-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -58.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 58 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 99 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

The 2s10s spread remains inverted. The 2-yr note yield is flat at 2.82% while the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 2.80%.

Shanghai reported the highest number of new COVID cases in three weeks, raising the potential for renewed lockdown measures.

In other overseas news, Norwegian oil and gas workers will return to work after an imposition of forced settlements by the government.

The energy futures are rising this morning after being hit hard yesterday. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.7% to $100.16/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 2.3% to $5.62/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 0.8% to $3.35/gal.

On a related note, the OPEC Secretary-General, Mohammad Barkindo, unexpectedly passed away last night just three weeks shy of the end of his second term.

Separately, cryptocurrency lender Voyager Digital has filed for bankruptcy after Three Arrows Capital failed to pay back a $650 million loan.

Looking ahead, market participants will receive the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June (Briefing.com consensus 54.2%; prior 55.9%) at 10:00 a.m. ET and the FOMC Minutes from the last meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET.

In corporate news:

Kornit Digital (KRNT 23.90, -7.66, -24.3%): Kornit Digital issues downside Q2 revenue guidance, citing macro-related headwinds that meaningfully accelerated in the last few weeks of the quarter.
Microsoft (MSFT 262.47, -0.38, -0.1%): The UK CMA is investigating the anticipated acquisition by Microsoft Corporation of Activision Blizzard.
Altria (MO 42.71, +0.99, +2.4%): The Juul ban was suspended by FDA.
Walmart (WMT 123.78, -0.47, -0.4%): Some Walmart suppliers will face fuel surcharges, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Market poised to rally on yesterday's gains
07-Jul-22 08:01 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +48.30.
The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 128 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

The market is poised to add to yesterday's slim gains after a good showing from Asian and European equities.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters the fund would soon downgrade its 2022 forecast for global economic growth for the third time this year. She said the outlook for the global economy had "darkened significantly" and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks.

Boris Johnson announced his resignation as Conservative Party leader. As recently as last night Johnson said he intended to stay and fight but said today, "It is clearly now the will of the parliamentary Conservative party that there should be a new leader..."

The 2s10s spread remains inverted. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.98% while the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.92%.

WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $99.72/bbl.

In corporate news:

Merck (MRK 91.70, -1.43, -1.5%): Merck is in advanced talks to buy Seagen, according to WSJ
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 4.72, +0.25, +5.6%): Bed Bath & Beyond interim CEO Sue Gove purchased 50,000 shares on July 1
GameStop (GME 123.92, +6.49, +5.5%): GameStop announces 4-for-1 stock split
Shell (SHEL 48.35, +0.34, +0.7%): Shell plc provides Q2 update; maintains plans for drilling in the Gulf of Mexico
Virgin Galactic (SPCE 6.73, +0.28, +4.3%): Virgin Galactic announces agreement with Boeing unit to design and manufacture co's next generation motherships
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Mixed futures for the major indices ahead of jobs report
08-Jul-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -50.80.
The futures for the major indices are mixed as market participants wait for the June jobs report. The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 51 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 12 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value.

In overseas news, Japan's former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while giving a speech at a campaign event. Beijing walked back its earlier announcement indicating mainland China's first vaccine mandate.

On a related note, President Biden is set to meet with advisors today to discuss cutting Chinese tariffs.

The 2s10s spread remains inverted heading into the open. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.00% while the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 2.98%.

Energy futures have pulled back some. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.4% to $102.35/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.9% to $6.14/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 1.3% to $3.37/gal.

In corporate news:

Levi Strauss (LEVI 17.05, +0.64, +3.9%): Levi Strauss beats by $0.06, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance, revs guidance; also increases dividend by 20%
Occidental Petroleum (OXY 62.55, +1.08, +1.8%): 10% owner Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett)bought 12,042,470 shares at $56.69 - $59.50 worth ~$698 mln.
WD-40 (WDFC 185.78, -19.07, -9.3%): WD-40 misses by $0.21, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below two analyst estimate, revs below two analyst estimate.
GameStop (GME 127.78, -7.34, -5.4%): GameStop's CFO departs as the company announces layoffs.
Twitter (TWTR 37.28, -1.51, -3.9%): Twitter's moving lower as Elon Musk's bid to buy the company is in jeopardy, according to The Washington Post. Twitter is also laying off 30% of its talent acquisition team, according to the WSJ.
Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS 41.94, -1.75, -4.0%): Nu Skin guides Q2 revenue below consensus, citing COVID-related factors in China, the conflict in Ukraine, and a general economic downturn.
XPO Logistics (XPO 50.50, +2.04, +4.2%): XPO Logistics was upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
.75b increase guaranteed next fed meet now..


June jobs report
08-Jul-22 08:33 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -42.30.
The futures for the major indices remain mixed.

Just in, the June nonfarm payrolls increased by 372,000 (Briefing.com consensus 250,000) versus the prior month's revised increase of 384,000 (from 390,000). Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 381,000 (Briefing.com consensus 275,000) versus the prior month's revised increase of 336,000 (from 333,000).

The June unemployment rate unchanged from last month at 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%). Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% m/m (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus the prior month's revised increase of 0.4% (from 0.3%). The average workweek was 34.5 (Briefing.com consensus 34.6) versus the prior month's revised average of 34.5 (from 34.6).
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1719 posts
2369 upvotes
Burlington, ON
Gungnir wrote: Why would he not just buy up the float on the open market until he has a controlling interest and then buy out the rest at the premium valuation he's offering? Would be far cheaper... ngl it sounds like a pump and dump scheme but with Elon you never know.
Pump and dump confirmed! Great work Elon, total ownage of the mindless media.

Link
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8006 posts
8594 upvotes
Gungnir wrote: Pump and dump confirmed! Great work Elon, total ownage of the mindless media.

Link
Strike 1 - "Funding secured"
Strike 2 - Buying twitter
Does the SEC and the courts really need to give him one more strike? Seems like the bolded phrase applies more to Musk.

via the FT;

The billionaire Tesla chief executive said in a filing Friday that Twitter was “in material breach of multiple provisions” of the sale agreement, and “appear[ed] to have made false and misleading representations”.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
personally i think this is a negotiating tactic to bring the price down from $54 a share to low 40s. If TWTR dips to high 20s i'm buying. America is built on contract law. He cannot walk away from this; or else the entire system is a sham.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1719 posts
2369 upvotes
Burlington, ON
MrMom wrote: via the FT;

The billionaire Tesla chief executive said in a filing Friday that Twitter was “in material breach of multiple provisions” of the sale agreement, and “appear[ed] to have made false and misleading representations”.
If this is in regards to the twitter bot situation it was common knowledge before the takeover began that twitter is infested by bots (source: look at the damn site...?) and doesn't hold even a bit of water IMHO. It will be interesting to see the outcome of litigation.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
11-Jul-22 08:01 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -31.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -106.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 106 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 176 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

Coming off the weekend, sentiment is being pressured by growth concerns. Market participants may be cautious ahead of the CPI report released on Wednesday.

Macau has announced new COVID lockdown measures, including closing down casinos for a weeklong period. Shanghai discovered the increasingly dominant omicron subvariant of COVID, fueling fears of new lockdown measures there. Additionally, Beijing fined some of the countries largest internet companies for failing to make proper antitrust declarations on previous deals.

Separately, French Minister Le Maire warns to prepare for a total cutoff of Russian gas saying, "Today that is the most likely option."

WTI crude oil futures are down 2.7% to $101.98/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 4.6% to $6.24/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 1.4% to $3.39/gal.

The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.07% while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.06%.

In corporate news:

Bank of America (BAC 31.68, -0.11, -0.4%): Bank of America was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe General.
Deere (DE 303.00, -1.64, -0.5%): Deere lost its patent case to AGCO Corp.
Twitter (TWTR 35.06, -1.75, -4.8%): Elon Musk sent a letter to Twitter formally notifying Twitter that Elon Musk is terminating their merger agreement; Twitter Board confident in merger agreement and intends to close transaction at $54.20 per share price.
Greenbrier (GBX 31.00, -1.62, -5.0%): Greenbrier reports Q3 (May) results, beats on revs
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM 31.29, +0.05, +0.2%): STMicroelectronics planning new chip foundry
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2139 posts
1108 upvotes
YVR
if the Rogers deal to buy Shaw gets shutdown I imagine a contraction of Shaw's current stock price. After this weekend I fail to see how it goes thru.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8006 posts
8594 upvotes
Lisa Abramowicz's tweets reflect her typical bond investor audience, very cautious to the point of being downbeat.

This tweet is an optimistic change. Now we just need the equity guys onboard.

Images
  • 1E1E32E0-C61E-421F-A06F-0C41389D9DC3.jpeg

Top

Thread Information

There are currently 2 users viewing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)