The Short-Term Trading Thread

Drifting lower
20-Jul-22 08:05 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Yesterday's sentiment-driven gains have been stymied by an early inclination to sell into strength.

The European Commission officially asked member states to cut their gas commission by 15% between August 1st and March 31st 2023. The 27 EU governments are asked to update their emergency plans and report to the Commission every two months on how they're progressing to comply. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, "whether a partial major cut-off of Russian gas or a total cut-off of Russian gas, Europe needs to be ready."

In other European news, bond markets got some relief ahead of a key ECB meeting Thursday when Italy's Prime Minister Draghi said he will stay in power provided parliamentarians back his coalition government.

Inflation hit a 40-yr high of 9.4% in the UK, fueling fears that the Bank of England will have to be more aggressive. Bank of England Governor Bailey said policymakers will consider a 50 basis point rate hike at their meeting next month.

In other news, the mortgage demand dropped to a 22-yr low with the MBA Mortgage Application Index showing a contraction of more than 6% week-over-week.

In corporate news:

Netflix (NFLX 214.00, +13.37, +6.1%): beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; global streaming paid net adds -0.97 mln vs -2.00 mln prior guidance; guides to Q3 at +1.00 mln
Nasdaq (NDAQ 161.00, +1.68, +1.1%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; announces 3-for-1 stock split and quarterly dividend of $0.20/share
Baker Hughes (BKR 27.00, -1.22, -4.3%): misses by $0.11, misses on revs
ASML (ASML 493.35, -5.01, -1.0%): beats by €0.01, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY22 revs below consensus
Biogen (BIIB 219.74, -0.52, -0.2%): beats by $1.16, beats on revs; raises FY22 guidance
Merck (MRK 91.53, -0.83, -0.9%): reports Phase 3 KEYNOTE-412 Trial did not meet its primary endpoint

Futures are mixed
21-Jul-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.20.
The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Futures for the major indices are mixed with mixed reactions to a lot of earnings reports since yesterday's close. There's some central bank news in play this morning with market participants waiting on the ECB decision at 8:15 a.m. ET. The ECB is expected to raise its key lending rates by 25 basis points, although there has been some chatter that a 50 basis point increase could also be discussed. In either case, this will be the ECB's first rate hike in 11 years.

Central bank outlier, the Bank of Japan, announced no change in its monetary policy. Its key lending rate remains unchanged at -0.1%. Japan's central bank also lowered its GDP forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% while raising its inflation forecast to 1.3% from 0.9%.

Russia resumed gas flows to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 but at reduced volumes seen before the scheduled maintenance.

Italian Prime Minister Draghi resigned after he was unable to resume a coalition government, setting the stage for early elections.

Energy complex futures have made big moves to the downside. WTI crude oil futures are down 4.8% to $95.10/bbl. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 6.2% to $3.07/gal. Natural gas futures are down 3.8% to $7.60/mmbtu. Separately, cryptocurrencies are also under pressure following Tesla's disclosure that it converted 75% of its Bitcoin holdings to fiat currency. The weakness, though, comes after a big move to the upside in recent weeks.

The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.25% while the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.05%.

In corporate news:

Tesla (TSLA 761.87, +19.37, +2.6%): beats by $0.46, reports revs in-line, reaffirms expectation to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over multi-year horizon
United Airlines (UAL 38.59, -3.09, -7.4%): misses by $0.45, reports revs in-line; continues to expect to be profitable for FY22; provides quarterly, FY22, and FY23 outlook: expects no more than ~8% capacity in FY23 compared to 2019
Microsoft (MSFT 260.13, -2.14, -0.8%): eliminating several open job listings, according to Bloomberg
Travelers (TRV 157.00, -1.20, -0.8%): beats by $0.60, beats on revs
CSX (CSX 30.96, +1.23, +4.1%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs
SAP SE (SAP 87.90, -4.43, -4.8%): misses by €0.12, beats on revs; updates guidance; announces further share repurchase program
Carnival Corp (CCL 9.80, -1.29, -11.6%): prices offering of 102,139,621 shares of common stock at $9.95 per share

SLI up over 10% atm. I don't see any corporate news, but have not looked at its competitors or the industry for news. <ed:. LAC +1%>

https://finviz.com/published_idea.ashx? ... 081552159i

Update @ 15:30 ET

Now SLI is down $0.47 or ~8.6% and LAC dn $1.07 or 4.5%. What was all that pre-mkt buying about?

Morning summary
22-Jul-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 36 points and are trading 0.5% above/below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 49 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

Early action is mixed with better-than-expected earnings from Dow component American Express (AXP 157.00, +6.82, +4.5%) helping to offset some weakness seen after yesterday's close in the wake of earnings disappointments from several companies, namely Snap (SNAP 11.33, -5.02, -30.7%) and Seagate Tech (STX 74.115, -9.46, -11.3%). The former reported above-consensus earnings but did not provide Q3 guidance citing uncertainties related to the operating environment as the reason. The latter reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue while issuing downside guidance and also warned of weakening global economic conditions.

There was also economic data out overnight which points to the weakening global economic conditions. Preliminary July PMI data from Japan, Australia, France, and Germany all showed weaker-than-expected results. This comes ahead of the July preliminary IHS Markit PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Sovereign bond markets rallied as the slowdown narrative picks up steam following the weaker-than-expected PMI reports.

CNN reported that the Senate is expected to pass the CHIPS semiconductor manufacturing bill as soon as next week.

WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $95.45/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.4% to $7.79/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 1.2% to $3.11/gal.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down nine basis points to 3.00% and the 10-yr note yield is down 11 basis points to 2.80%.

In corporate news:

Snap (SNAP 11.33, -5.02, -30.7%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; doesn't provide Q3 guidance due to uncertainties related to operating environment; authorizes $500 mln stock repurchase progra
Seagate Tech (STX 74.115, -9.46, -11.3%): misses by $0.30, misses on revs; guides SepQ EPS and revs below consensus; macro-related challenges continuing into SepQ; co is reducing its production plans...stock currently halted; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Summit Insights
Schlumberger (SLB 34.50, +0.87, +2.6%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs above consensus
HCA (HCA 203.10, +21.79, +12.0%): beats by $0.50, reports revs in-line
Boston Beer Co (SAM 306.79, -29.39, -8.7%): misses by $0.31, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS below consensus; expects FY22 depletions and shipments decrease of between 2% and 8%
American Express (AXP 157.00, +6.82, +4.5%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs
Verizon (VZ 45.50, -2.16, -4.5%): misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; lowers FY22 EPS guidance

Morning Summary
25-Jul-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +15.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.80.
The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 152 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

There's not a lot of big corporate headlines in play this morning ahead of a busy week for market-moving catalysts. Futures for the major indices are trading up on a general feeling that the Fed is getting closer to becoming less aggressive with rate hikes. Also, a feeling that inflation is at its peak and due to moderate remains in play.

Some weekend developments included Treasury Secretary Yellen downplaying the idea of the U.S. being in recession, Russia bombing the Odessa port that facilitates grain shipments, and Reuters reporting that China is aiming to put together a property developer bailout fund of up to $44 billion.

This week is full of market-moving catalysts, namely earnings reports from approximately 175 S&P 500 companies which make up nearly 50% of the index's market cap, the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the advanced Q2 GDP reading, and the June Personal Income and Spending report on Friday. Separately, the Senate is expected to hold a final vote on the CHIPS act semiconductor manufacturing bill on Tuesday.

Energy complex futures are on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $95.76.bbl. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.2% to $3.06/gal. Natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $8.27/mmbtu.

Treasury yields have risen some, too. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.01% while the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 2.81%.

In corporate news:

Lam Research (LRCX 458.51, -5.48, -1.2%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
T-Mobile (TMUS 132.00, -0.48m -0.4%): aiming to pay $350 million for hacking settlement
Newmont Goldcorp (NEM 49.54, -1.85, -3.6%): misses by $0.15, reports revs in-line

Morning Summary
26-Jul-22 07:56 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -64.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 42 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are 109 down points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

Futures for the major indices are weaker this morning following a flurry of earnings news since yesterday's close. The profit warning from Walmart (WMT 119.89, -12.13, -9.2%) seems to be taking precedence as a sentiment driver, as well as relatively lackluster guidance in general from other companies.

Today starts the two-day FOMC meeting. Market participants are expecting a 75 basis point rate hike Wednesday but continue to mull uncertainty about the Fed's guidance after that decision.

In other news, yesterday President Biden said he expects to speak with Chinese President Xi this week, but noted that no meeting is set up yet.

On a related note, The New York Times reports that the Biden administration has concerns that China could take some potential action in Taiwan in the next 18 months.

Treasury yields are on a decline ahead of the open. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 2.98% while the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 2.75%.

In corporate news:

Walmart (WMT 119.89, -12.13, -9.2%): lowers profit outlook for Q2 (Jul) and FY23 (Jan); guides Q2 and FY23 revs above consensus, elevated by inflation; reiterates US comps, excluding fuel, of about +3% in 2H23; guides Q2 adjusted EPS below consensus; trims its FY23 adjusted EPS outlook
General Motors (GM 33.94, -0.58, -1.7%): misses by $0.18, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS and EBIT guidance
Coca-Cola (KO 62.99, +0.80, +1.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line
3M (MMM 142.11, +7.99, +6.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; lowers outlook
McDonald's (MCD 250.25, -0.13, -0.1%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs
UPS (UPS 184.25, -3.66, -2.0%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance, raises targeted share repurchases to $3 bln for 2022
F5 Networks (FFIV 166.07, +11.66, +7.6%): beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; announces an additional $1 bln for its share repurchase program
Alibaba (BABA 105.03, +3.97, +3.9%): pursues primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Whirlpool (WHR 167.01, +2.36, +1.4%): beats by $0.65, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

So we should look at the Business Inventory numbers as the goods that were parked in shipping containers are now in the warehouses. Maybe the retailers will be forced to have blow out sales like Costco did in May.

Via ycharts dot com

FWIW,



Update

@Charles @Gungnir

I think you want to focus on the point that hikes maybe coming to an end according to permabear Rosenberg

MrMom wrote: ↑ FWIW,

didn;t the fed already say they were going forward data dependent?

Charles wrote: ↑ didn;t the fed already say they were going forward data dependent?

If they weren't data dependent what methodology would they use to make their decision?

Gungnir wrote: ↑ If they weren't data dependent what methodology would they use to make their decision?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/ec ... dependency

MrMom wrote: ↑ FWIW,

Rosenberg, I guess means even more data dependant than they've already said they're going to be.

Jan 26, FOMC, Powell - I stress again that we’ll be humble and nimble. We’re going to have to navigate crosscurrents and actually two-sided risks now. So—and, and I’ll say also that we’re going to be guided by the data. In fact, what I’ll say is that we’re going to be led by the incoming data and the evolving outlook...

Mar 16, FOMC, Powell - Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.


Although, Rosenberg isn't alone in calling for the Fed to abandon forward guidance. Bloomberg's Ed Harrison published a story this morning on this very topic, I included a few snippets.

Forward Guidance Has Outlived Its Usefulness for the Fed

When central banks’ target rates were zero, their guidance about future policy was everything. Now that we’ve moved on from record-low rates, policy makers need to rethink forward guidance — or risk losing even more of their credibility.

Tomorrow, the Fed is poised to hike interest rates by three-quarters of a percent for the second month in a row. And while financial markets have already discounted this, bond markets remain as jumpy as ever despite — or should I say, because of — the Federal Reserve’s attempts to sweet talk them with forward guidance about policy. The volatility could be an indication that over-reliance on future projections is doing more harm than good, and a sign for the Fed to let rate hikes do the talking.

When it started hiking rates in March, the Fed kicked off a new regime where forward guidance was less important. Over the past four months, central banks have been trying to tell markets what they’re going to do, by how much and when. It’s a task that has proven impossible to the point where markets immediately discount any guidance, front-running policy instead, based on the market’s collective wisdom.

Last week, the ECB effectively told us forward guidance is dead and that it’s making rate decisions on a month-to-month basis. The Fed is likely to follow, and the sooner the better.

This signals more bond market volatility, both in Europe and the US, until inflation comes down demonstrably and we can start to project with some confidence when — and at what level — rate hikes will end.

Fed funds futures point to the US central bank stopping at 3.5% sometime early next year, though I personally see policy makers going further.

A lot depends on how inflation and the economy develop between now and then, and how committed the Fed is to fighting inflation. If the economy turns down demonstrably before then, the mix of unknowns will expand political pressure to fight unemployment instead of inflation. No one — including the Fed — really knows.


Interesting times these are for sure.

@Charles just saw your post, yes they did, see the top of my post.

Morning Summary
27-Jul-22 07:55 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +29.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +143.00.
Futures for the major indices are indicating a higher open ahead of the FOMC decision this afternoon. The S&P 500 futures are up 31 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 164 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 141 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices indicate a modestly higher open in a positive reaction to better-than-feared results and guidance from Alphabet (GOOG 109.35, +3.91, +3.7%) and Microsoft (MSFT 260.25, +8.35, +3.3%).

There's a heavy slate of earnings news for market participants to digest this morning. Also, there's a lot of focus on the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and, more importantly, any potential comments from Fed Chair Powell about the expected policy path. His press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Treasury yields are up this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.06% while the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.80%.

Energy futures are also on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $96.13/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 0.9% to $8.90/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.7% to $3.13/gal.

Also, the MBA weekly Mortgage Application Index showed a drop in demand for the fourth straight week with total volume down 1.8%.

In corporate news:

Alphabet (GOOG 109.35, +3.91, +3.7%): misses by $0.06, reports revs in-line; Google Advertising revenue up 11.6%
Microsoft (MSFT 260.25, +8.35, +3.3%): misses by $0.06, reports slight miss on revs; evolving macroeconomic conditions and other unforeseen items had an impact on financial results
Visa (V 211.81, -0.68, -0.3%): beats by $0.23, beats on revs
Humana (HUM 479.44, -12.84, -2.6%): beats by $0.99, reports revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS above consensus
Boeing (BA 160.32, +4.40, +2.8%): misses by $0.27, misses on revs; returns to positive operating cash flow; remains on track to achieve positive free cash flow for 2022
Texas Instruments (TXN 164.90, +4.06, +2.5%): beats by $0.33, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Sherwin-Williams (SHW 230.00, -24.29, -9.6%): misses by $0.33, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 1,423.90, +107.47, +8.2%): beats by $0.26, misses on revs; Q2 comps +10.1%; sees Q3 comps mid to high single digits including planned price increases
Juniper Networks (JNPR 26.59, -1.48, -5.3%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
Enphase Energy (ENPH 236.85, +20.75, +9.6%): beats by $0.22, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus
Spotify (SPOT 111.70, +7.73, +7.4%): misses by €0.21, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus

Post Fed Chair Q&A, pre GDP release. Lowering of long end bond prices => moderating the Rates mkt expectation for a recession

Morning Summary
28-Jul-22 08:03 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -15.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -110.40.
The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Amid a flood of earnings since yesterday's close, the market is poised for a weaker open this morning. Market participants are seemingly concentrating on disappointing guidance from the likes of Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Best Buy (BBY).

Also, there's some contentions that the post-FOMC rally yesterday was overdone.

In other developments, Senators Manchin and Schumer have reached an agreement to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The bill will reduce deficit by $306 billion with 15% minimum corporate tax, invest in the technologies needed for all fuel types -- from hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, fossil fuels and energy storage. Also, it extends ACA subsidies and allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drugs and closes the carried interest loophole.

In addition, the Senate passed a long-awaited $280 billion bill, which includes $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing, to help the U.S. fend off competition from China. On a related note, President Biden is scheduled to speak with President Xi at 8:30 a.m. ET.

That call will start at the same time that the Advanced Q2 GDP report will be released. Market participants are anxious to see if the report will mark the second straight contraction in GDP.

The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.96% while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.77%.

In corporate news:

Meta Platforms (META 162.72, -6.86, -4.1%): misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line, DAUs increased 3%; guides Q3 revs below consensus, lowers 2022 expense guidance; announces CFO transition
Ford (F 14.07, +0.88, +6.7%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; co raises quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.15/sh, new yield is 4.6%
Qualcomm (QCOM 148.25, -5.17, -3.4%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
Merck (MRK 91.75, +0.52, +0.6%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, raises revs in-line
Pfizer (PFE 52.40, +0.85, +1.7%): beats by $0.26, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance, revs guidance
Etsy (ETSY 102.87, +7.37, +7.7%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs; GMS in line with guidance; guides Q3 revs in-line
Teladoc (TDOC 32.40, -10.84, -25.1%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
Lam Research (LRCX 462.00, -4.66, -1.0%): beats by $1.50, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
ServiceNow (NOW 419.89, -28.71, -6.4%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line
Columbia Sportswear (COLM 73.50, -1.19, -1.6%): beats by $0.08, misses on revs; guides FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus due to macroeconomic conditions
O'Reilly Auto (ORLY 671.90, -17.50, -2.5%): misses by $0.21, reports revs in-line; cuts FY22 EPS, revs, comps guidance
Best Buy (BBY 71.75, -2.74, -3.7%): expects Q2 FY23 comparable sales1 to decline approximately 13%, with revenue approximately 7.5% higher than pre-pandemic Q2 FY20; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Honeywell (HON 185.70, +2.04, +1.1%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs in-line; names Vimal Kapur as COO effective immediately
Southwest Air (LUV 38.40, -2.37, -5.8%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line
Spirit Airlines (SAVE 25.27, +0.91, +4.0%): has terminated the merger agreement with Frontier Group (ULCC); JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines announce that their boards of directors have approved a definitive merger agreement under which JetBlue will acquire Spirit for $33.50/share in cash
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 101.26, -16.19, -13.8%): misses by $0.36, misses on revs; slashed FY22 EPS below consensus

So is this not now the technical definition of being in a recession?

Adv. Q2 GDP shows second straight contraction
28-Jul-22 08:33 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -15.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -108.60.
The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 87 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Just in, the Advanced Q2 GDP reading showed a contraction of 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) versus the Q1 contraction of 1.6%. The Advanced Q2 GDP Price Deflator increased 8.7% (Briefing.com consensus 7.1%) versus the Q1 increase of 8.2%.

Separately, weekly initial jobless claims totaled 256,000 (Briefing.com consensus 253,000) versus the prior revised count of 261,000 (from 251,000). Continuing claims totaled 1.359 million versus the prior unrevised count of 1.384 million.

Charles wrote: ↑ So is this not now the technical definition of being in a recession?

Adv. Q2 GDP shows second straight contraction
28-Jul-22 08:33 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -15.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -108.60.
The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 87 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Just in, the Advanced Q2 GDP reading showed a contraction of 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) versus the Q1 contraction of 1.6%. The Advanced Q2 GDP Price Deflator increased 8.7% (Briefing.com consensus 7.1%) versus the Q1 increase of 8.2%.

Separately, weekly initial jobless claims totaled 256,000 (Briefing.com consensus 253,000) versus the prior revised count of 261,000 (from 251,000). Continuing claims totaled 1.359 million versus the prior unrevised count of 1.384 million.

Technical yes. But, as I understand it, at this point in time, the NBER is unlikely to call this an official recession . This because unemployment numbers factor into their assessment and by all measures employment is still very strong.

Morning Summary
29-Jul-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +20.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +94.00.
The S&P 500 futures up 23 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 116 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 53 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

The futures for the major indices are indicating a modestly higher open fueled by carryover momentum from yesterday's rally. This is aided by better-than-feared quarterly results from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN), along with better-than-expected results from Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM).

Also, Eurozone GDP was up 0.7% qtr/qtr in Q2, meanwhile the July CPI was at a record high of 8.9% yr/yr.

Market participants will receive the June Personal Income and Spending report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The focal point for this report is the PCE Price Index. Also out at 8:30 a.m. ET is the Q2 Employment Cost Index. At 9:45 a.m. ET, the July Chicago PMI will be released while the July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final reading is out at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Energy futures are up this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.4% to $98.75/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $8.21/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.2% to $3.13/gal.

The Treasury market is mixed with the 2-yr note yield down one basis point to 2.87% while the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 2.70%.

In corporate news:

Apple (AAPL 161.05, +3.70, +2.4%): reports top line beat on better than expected iPhone revenue; wearables and Macs miss estimates; CEO Tim Cook says supply constraints came in slightly below the range of $4-8 billion guidance range
Amazon.com (AMZN 137.55, +15.27, +12.5%): reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs and operating income; guides Q3 revs in-line
Chevron (CVX 155.94, +5.55, +3.6%): beats by $0.79, beats on revs
Exxon Mobil (XOM 94.53, +1.89, +2.0%): beats by $0.25, beats on revs
Intel (INTC 35.30, -4.41, -11.11%): misses by $0.41, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; lowers FY22 guidance
Roku (ROKU 65.58, -19.59, -23.00%): misses by $0.14, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus, withdraws its full year revenue growth estimate
Procter & Gamble (PG 143.50, -4.56, -3.08%): misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 midpoint below consensus, revs mostly below consensus
DexCom (DXCM 76.84, -10.15, -11.67%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides FY22 revs below consensus
Five9 (FIVN 110.00, +11.62, +11.81%): beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Mohawk (MHK 134.80, -1.62, -1.19%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus

PCE (core) MoM act +0.6% > exp +0.5%, ECI QoQ act +1.3% > exp +1.2%

Cdn GDP (May) MoM act 0.0% > exp -0.2%