Investing

The Short-Term Trading Thread

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Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
01-Aug-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.40.
The S&P 500 futures down 4 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are flat and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

There's not a lot happening in the futures market this morning. After the big run in July, there is likely an expectation that the market will see some type of consolidation period.

Also, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter in 2023) said he thinks the market got ahead of itself in anticipating a Fed pivot.

In overseas news, Germany had a larger-than-expected decline in June retail sales month/month of 1.6%.

In addition, House speaker Pelosi started her Asian tour and is expected to visit Taiwan, according to CNN.

China's July Manufacturing PMI was 49.0, which is below 50 and indicative of contraction.

Later this morning, market participants will receive the July IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI final reading (prior 52.3%) at 9:45 ET. July ISM Manufacturing Index and June Construction Spending are out at 10:00 ET.

Also the Treasury market is mixed with the 2-yr note yield down two basis points to 2.88% while the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 2.66%.

In corporate news:

Boeing (BA 167.20, +7.89, +4.9%): St. Louis workers canceled planned strike; US has approved plan to inspect 787 jets in order to resume deliveries.
Target (TGT 166.56, +3.18, +1.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
The Southern Company (SO 76.81, -0.08, -0.1%): Bloomberg reports that CEO Tom Fanning will soon announce retirement
EVO Payments (EVOP 32.75, +5.41, +19.7%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; EVO Payments to be acquired by Global Payments (GPN) for $34.00 per share
Jacobs Engineering Group (J 141.00, +3.70, +2.6%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
02-Aug-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -26.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -122.70.
The S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 103 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 165 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

There's a weaker tone in the futures market that's mostly attributed to US-China tensions over House Speaker Pelosi's anticipated Taiwan visit. Also, there are some reservations that the market rally in July is not sustainable given the deteriorating economic fundamentals.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85%, as expected.

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia is expected to support an oil production increase at the OPEC+ meeting Wednesday.

WTI crude oil futures are up 0.8% to $94.63/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 2.7% to $8.08/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 0.5% to $2.98/gal.

Treasury yields are falling this morning with the 2-yr note yield down five basis points to 2.86% while the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 2.56%.

In corporate news:

Pinterest (PINS 23.64, +3.65, +18.2%): misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line; provides Q3 and FY22 guidance; upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
Caterpillar (CAT 187.98, -6.88, -3.5%): beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line
Uber (UBER 27.54, +2.94, +11.9%): misses by $1.06, beats on revs; Q2 gross bookings in line with guidance; provides Q3 gross bookings/adjusted EBITDA guidance; co became a free cash flow generator in Q2
BP (BP 29.92, +0.87, +2.9%): reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs
Eaton (ETN 150.34, +2.84, +1.9%): beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides FY22 EPS in-line
Marriott (MAR 162.27, +2.70, +1.6%): beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus; guides FY22 EPS above consensus
DuPont (DD 59.00, -1.20, -1.9%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY22 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
JetBlue (JBLU 8.29, -0.30, -3.4%): misses by $0.36, reports revs in-line
Cowen Group (COWN 38.15, +2.66, +7.5%): Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) to acquire COWN in all-cash deal valued at $1.3 bln, or $39/share; to be modestly accretive to 2023E EPS
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
03-Aug-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +19.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +47.40.
The S&P 500 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 144 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are trading higher with a measure of relief that China's response to Speaker Pelosi's Taiwan visit was not more consequential. Attention has also shifted to earnings news which is generally better-than-feared.

In other news, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) said after yesterday's close that he thinks a soft landing is possible but the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates. He thinks the target range should be 3.75%-4.00% by the end of the year.

Also, OPEC+ is meeting today and there has been speculation that it will increase its production quota.

Oil prices are moving higher this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $95.00/bbl. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.6% to $3.11/gal. Natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $7.78.

Treasury yields are rising. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.09% while the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 2.78%.

There's several economic data releases this morning with the focal point being the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.8%; prior 55.3%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 93.40, -5.89, -5.9%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
CVS Health (CVS 98.84, +3.47, +3.6%): beats by $0.22, beats on revs; raises FY22 EPS guidance above consensus
PayPal (PYPL 101.29, +11.66, +13.0%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; raises FY22 EPS guidance; lowers FY22 revenue guidance; confirms $2 bln stake from Elliott, enters Information Sharing Agreement
Starbucks (SBUX 85.20, +1.49, +1.7%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line, US comps of +9%; Q4 (Sep) guidance remains suspended
Airbnb (ABNB 108.51, -7.83, -6.7%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs above consensus; provides other metrics for Q3 guidance
Match Group (MTCH 60.97, -15.74, -20.5%): reports Q2 (Jun) results, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus
RingCentral (RNG 54.00, +4.30, +8.6%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
Regeneron Pharma (REGN 586.28, +11.32, +1.9%): beats by $1.02, beats on revs
AmerisourceBergen (ABC 150.00, +7.19, +5.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; raises FY22 EPS in-line
Ping Identity (PING 27.95, +10.48, +60.0%): to be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $2.8 bln, or $28.50/share in all-cash deal; misses by $0.22, misses on revs; also announced that company entered into definitive agreement to be acquired by Thomas Bravo for $28.50/share
Moderna (MRNA 168.97, +8.16, +5.0%): beats by $0.75, beats on revs
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
04-Aug-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.90.
The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are little bit higher off the heels of yesterday's big moves. The continued positive bias is helped out by the resilience to selling.

There's been a huge swath of earnings news since yesterday's close in play for market participants today.

There's also been some central bank news. In its largest rate hike since 1995, the Bank of England raised its key rate 50 basis points to 1.75%, as expected. Brazil's central bank raised its key rate 50 basis points to 13.75%, as expected.

Also, a senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official said that preparations should be made for a return to normal trading in Japanese bonds.

Treasury yields are falling this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.07% while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.71%.

Energy complex futures are mostly higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $91.21/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.4% to $8.39/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 0.3% to $2.90/gal.

In corporate news:

Walmart (WMT 130.32, -0.18, -0.14%): to eliminate hundreds of jobs at corporate office, according to WSJ
Booking Holdings (BKNG 1,909.00, -57.48, -2.92%): beats by $1.41, misses on revs; expects record Q3 revenue
Clorox (CLX 138.01, -6.56, -4.54%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Cigna (CI 280.41, +8.67, +3.19%): beats by $0.73, beats on revs; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Fortinet (FTNT 57.60, -5.28, -8.40%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
Qorvo (QRVO 102.70, -4.17, -3.90%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides SepQ EPS in-line, revs in-line
Albemarle (ALB 253.00, +13.46, +5.62%): beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; raises FY22 guidance
Eli Lilly (LLY 306.16, -7.67, -2.44%): misses by $0.46, misses on revs; lowers FY22 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
MGM Resorts (MGM 35.22, +1.02, +2.98%): misses by $0.30, beats on revs
Crocs (CROX 76.00, -1.38, -1.78%): beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; lowers FY22 EPS below consensus; sees FY22 revs in line
YETI Holdings (YETI 45.76, -8.60, -15.82%): misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; lowers FY22 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Alibaba (BABA 99.64, +3.92, +4.10%): beats by rmb1.23, reports revs in-line
Lucid Group (LCID 17.86, -2.70, -13.13%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Jobs report release
05-Aug-22 08:33 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.60.
The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 6 point and are 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 77 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Just in, the employment situation report for July showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 528,000 (Briefing.com consensus 250,000) after the prior revised increase of 398,000 (from 372,000). Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 471,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000) versus the prior revised increase of 404,000 (from 381,000). Average hourly earnings were up 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus the prior revised increase of 0.4% (from 0.3%). The July unemployment rate was 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%) versus 3.6% in June. The average workweek was 34.6 hours (Briefing.com 34.5) versus a revised 34.6 hours (from 34.5) in June.

Morning Summary
05-Aug-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00.
The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 5 point and are 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 62 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are mixed this morning as participants sort through another large batch of earnings results. There is also a lack of conviction ahead of the employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will have an outsized impact on how the market is thinking about future Fed policy moves.

In related central bank news, the Reserve Bank of India raised its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.40% against expectations for a 35-bps increase. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia expects above-target inflation to continue through 2023.

Turning to political news, press reports indicate Arizona Senator Sinema is going to support the Inflation Reduction Act after the provision to close the carried interest tax loophole was removed. Also, China has sanctioned House Speaker Pelosi over her Taiwan visit.

Energy complex futures are somewhat lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $88.01/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.8% to $7.97/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 0.1% to $2.79/gal.

Treasury yields are trending higher. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.06% while the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 2.70%.

In corporate news:

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 15.43, -2.05, -11.73%): issued guidance during earnings conference call; sees FY22 adjusted EBITDA of $9.0-$9.5 bln vs. prior guidance of $10 bln
Carvana (CVNA 36.36, +2.82, +8.41%): misses by $0.37, misses on revs; continues to expect a return to >$4,000 total GPU and significant positive EBITDA in FY 2023
Yelp (YELP 36.90, +4.58, +14.17%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs above consensus
DoorDash (DASH 89.80, +8.44, +10.37%): misses by $0.32, beats on revs
Lyft (LYFT 18.84, +1.45, +8.34%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line, adjusted EBITDA of $79.1 mln, easily exceeding its guidance of $10-$20 mln; guides for Q3 revenue of $1.040-$1.060 bln vs. $1.12 bln consensus estimate, guides for Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $55-$65 mln
Zillow (ZG 34.79, -3.34, -8.76%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs and EBITDA below consensus
Expedia Group (EXPE 107.07, +4.87, +4.77%): beats by $0.40, beats on revs
Doximity (DOCS 33.53, -6.78, -16.82%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus
AMC Entertainment (AMC 17.00, -1.66, -8.90%): beats by $0.03, misses on revs
Rocket Companies (RKT 9.50, -0.79, -7.68%): misses by $0.05, misses on revs
Twilio (TWLO 89.45, -8.74, -8.90%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Block (SQ 83.79, -5.91, -6.59%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs
DraftKings (DKNG 17.72, +1.36, +8.31%): beats by $0.56, beats on revs; raises FY22 revs in-line
Patience comes to those who wait
Sr. Member
Sep 28, 2011
806 posts
1458 upvotes
Winnipeg
Charles wrote: Jobs report release
05-Aug-22 08:33 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] Just in, the employment situation report for July showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 528,000 (Briefing.com consensus 250,000) after the prior revised increase of 398,000 (from 372,000). Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 471,000 (Briefing.com consensus 200,000) versus the prior revised increase of 404,000 (from 381,000). Average hourly earnings were up 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus the prior revised increase of 0.4% (from 0.3%). The July unemployment rate was 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%) versus 3.6% in June.
Hmm...i can't help but think it's going to be harder for the market's current Fed pivot narrative to play out with numbers like these.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
bigblue1ca wrote: Hmm...i can't help but think it's going to be harder for the market's current Fed pivot narrative to play out with numbers like these.
Next wed's CPI will be even more crucial now. If inflation numbers come in cooler then expected then what happens to the fed raising rates?

"The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressure, make a mockery of claims that the economy is on the brink of recession," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note following Friday's report.

In Pearce's view, this report also makes it likely the Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% at its September meeting. This would mark the third-straight meeting the central bank raised rates by this magnitude.

"The July employment report was an absolute knock-out, a major upside surprise relative to my expectations and indeed much of the labor market data released up to this point," Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro, stated in an email. "That said, this jobs report is consistent with an inflationary boom. The Fed has a lot more work to do and in an odd way, that the Fed needs to get more aggressive in pushing up rates, makes the hard-landing scenario more likely."
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
I wonder if this employment number is fake - just part timers and seasonal. Its such a crazy beat.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8919 posts
10036 upvotes
Charles wrote: I wonder if this employment number is fake - just part timers and seasonal. Its such a crazy beat.
Keys to understanding the data this morning.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/home.htm

"This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note."

Household Survey Data =/= Establishment Survey Data

Now read todays full report and you will see conclusions are hard to come by. The household survey is usually seen as more suspect.

Update

EOD WSJ email on the survey differences just came in. See attached.
Images
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Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
08-Aug-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +21.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +72.90.
The S&P 500 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 94 point and are 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 149 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

The Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act overnight. It's headed to the House now which is expected to vote in favor on Friday.

In overseas news, China has announced additional military drills around Taiwan. Also, Chinese imports came in weaker than expected in July while exports were stronger than expected.

Separately, Fed Governor Bowman said that a 75 basis point rate hike in September is still on the table until inflation declines in a meaningful way. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Daly (not an FOMC voter) reiterated that the number one priority is to bring down inflation.

Energy complex futures are mostly lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $88.10/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 3.6% to $7.77/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 0.2% to $2.86/gal.

Treasury yields are also falling. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.21% while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.80%.

In corporate news:

Roku (ROKU 80.14, -2.12, -2.58%): downgraded to Sell from Hold at Pivotal
Carvana (CVNA 45.76, -1.22, -2.60%): downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Palantir Technologies (PLTR 9.75, -1.70, -14.85%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY22 revs below consensus
Monday.com (MNDY 147.99, +20.16, +15.77%): beats by $0.42, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; raises FY22 revs above consensus
Barrick (GOLD 16.07, +0.47, +3.01%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT 66.49, +2.65, +4.15%): Pfizer (PFE) confirms plans to acquire Global Blood Therapeutics in Transaction valued at $68.50 per share in cash, for a total enterprise value of ~ $5.4 billion; upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jan 28, 2012
1763 posts
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Charles wrote: I wonder if this employment number is fake - just part timers and seasonal. Its such a crazy beat.
Apparently a lot of it is people getting 2nd and 3rd jobs to make ends meet because of inflation, so not exactly good news.
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
09-Aug-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -15.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -103.40.
The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 85 point and are 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 45 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

There's some hesitation in the market ahead of Wednesday's CPI report. Also, there is a feeling that the market is still due for a pullback after the recent gains.

President Biden is expected to sign the CHIPS Act today at 10:00 a.m. ET while the Inflation Reduction Act is headed to the House where a vote is expected on Friday.

Energy futures are climbing this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.3% to $91.94/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.5% to $7.71/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.7% to $2.93/gal.

Treasury yields are also on the rise ahead of the open. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.24% while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.80%.

In corporate news:

Micron (MU 59.05, -2.40, -3.91%): ahead of conference says Q4 revenue may come in at or below the low end of the revenue guidance range; announces $40 billion investment in leading-edge memory manufacturing in the US
Novavax (NVAX 38.80, -18.45, -32.23%) : reports Q2 (Jun) results, lowers FY22 revenue guidance
Boeing (BA 166.58, +0.69, +0.42%): FAA approved first Boeing 787 delivery.
GoodRx (GDRX 10.91, +3.15, +40.59%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus
3D Systems (DDD 11.41, -1.83, -13.82%): misses by $0.07, misses on revs; guides FY22 revs below consensus
Upstart (UPST 28.12, -4.15, -12.86%): misses by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Trex (TREX 57.20, -6.63, -10.39%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; expects a significant reduction in revs in 2H22
Olaplex (OLPX 17.45, +1.14, +6.99%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance
GlobalFoundries (GFS 61.00, +1.81, +3.06%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Qualys (QLYS 133.39, +5.96, +4.68%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Take-Two (TTWO 121.19, -4.32, -3.44%): misses by $1.61, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 12.71, -0.82, -6.06%): misses by $0.31, misses on revs; doesn't provide specific guidance, but says it will report a loss in Q3
Signet Jewelers (SIG 65.02, -2.65, -3.92%): signed an agreement to acquire Blue Nile for $360 million in an all cash transaction; sees Q2 revs below consensus, lowers FY23 revenue guidance due to heightened pressure on consumers' discretionary spending and increased macroeconomic headwinds
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
10-Aug-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +33.10.
The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 54 points and are 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are modestly higher ahead of the anticipated July CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET following two losing sessions. Market participants are also digesting another batch of earnings which resulted in outsized moves both to the upside and downside for individual stocks.

In other news, China has ended its military exercises in Taiwan.

Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index showed a modest 0.2% increase versus the prior increase of 1.2%.

Energy complex futures are falling this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.8% to $88.87/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.0% to $7.75/mmbtu.

The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.27% while the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point at 2.79%.

In corporate news:

Coinbase Global (COIN 83.14, -4.54, -5.18%): misses by $3.75, misses on revs; guides to average MTUs of 7-9 mln for FY22; downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Akamai Tech (AKAM 93.20, -1.88, -1.98%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; Guides Q3 and FY22 revenue and EPS below consensus
Wynn Resorts (WYNN 64.00, -2.03, -3.07%): beats by $0.15, misses on revs
Roblox (RBLX 40.30, -7.05, -14.89%): misses by $0.04, beats on top line
The Trade Desk (TTD 63.56, +9.06, +16.62%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus
Workiva (WK 79.00, +10.48, +15.29%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY22 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Sweetgreen (SG 12.93, -3.92, -23.26%): misses by $0.21, misses on revs; guides FY22 revs below consensus, lowers FY22 EBITDA and comp guidance; began to see softness in revenue around Memorial Day
Tesla (TSLA 864.15, +14.15, +1.66%): CEO Elon Musk sells 7.92 million shares saying, "In the (hopefully unlikely) event that Twitter forces this deal to close *and* some equity partners don’t come through, it is important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock"
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
11-Aug-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +15.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +31.10.
The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 47 points and are 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 142 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are indicating a higher open driven by carryover momentum from yesterday's CPI-fueled rally. The S&P 500 closing above the 4,200 level is also helping sentiment this morning in addition to Disney's (DIS) favorable quarterly results.

San Francisco Fed President Daly (not an FOMC voter) said she's in favor of slower rate hikes (i.e. 50 basis points) but believes it's too early to declare victory on inflation, according to FT.

Also, the Biden administration is thinking about postponing plans to remove tariffs on some Chinese imports following the recent events involving Taiwan, according to Reuters.

National average gasoline prices fell below $4.00/gal, according to Reuters.

On a related note, the IEA raised its oil demand forecast for 2022, which is helping to contribute to higher oil prices this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $92.93/bbl.

The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.14% while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.75%.

In corporate news:

Walt Disney (DIS 122.19, +9.76, +8.68%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; Disney+ subscriptions increased 31% to 152.1 mln, operating loss in DTC segment increased by $800 mln; will launch ad-supported Disney+ subscription in U.S. on Dec. 8; company also ups prices for no-ads options
Cardinal Health (CAH 60.28, -2.47, -3.94%): misses by $0.13, beats on revs; narrows FY22 guidance
Six Flags (SIX 22.52, -3.29, -12.75%): misses by $0.50, misses on revs
Dillard's (DDS 294.99, +46.43 ,+18.68%): beats by $6.42, beats on revs; comparable store sales flat
Lowe's (LOW 198.51, -2.92, -1.45%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Sonos (SONO 18.81, -3.96, -17.39%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; lowers FY22 revs below consensus; CFO stepping down for another opportunity
Bumble Inc. (BMBL 31.41, -3.08, -8.93%): misses by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY22 revs below consensus
AppLovin (APP 37.43, -3.03, -7.49%): misses by $0.20, misses on revs; lowers FY22 revs guidance below consensus
Dutch Bros (BROS 45.75, +1.74, +3.95%): misses by $0.02, beats on revs, comps -3.3%; reaffirms FY22 revs and comps guidance
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
Morning Summary
12-Aug-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +14.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.10.
The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 57 points and are 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 112 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.

Futures for the major indices have a positive bias this morning with the S&P 500 on track for a fourth consecutive winning week.

The House will vote on the Inflation Reduction Act today where it's expected to pass. Also, the CDC issued new guidelines that remove the quarantine recommendation for people exposed to Covid-19.

There is weakness in a number of Chinese ADRs following the news that several companies, China Life Insurance (LFC), PetroChina (PTR), China Petroleum (Sinopec) (SNP), Alum. Corp China (ACH), and Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI), plan to delist at the NYSE.

Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.5% to $92.93/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 3.2% to $8.59/mmbtu.

The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.19% while the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 2.87%.

In corporate news:

Toast (TOST 20.51, +2.36, +13.00%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; raises FY22 revs guidance above consensus
Illumina (ILMN 193.55, -33.89, -14.90%): misses by $0.07, misses on revs; cuts FY22 EPS, revs expectations
Rivian Automotive (RIVN 38.64, -0.31, -0.80%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs, reports R1 preorder backlog of 98,000 vehicles; Reaffirms 2022 production target of 25K vehicles, lowers capital expenditure guidance
Olo Inc. (OLO 8.77, -4.22, -32.49%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; lowers FY22 revs below consensus
Payoneer (PAYO 6.79, +1.11, +19.54%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY22 revs above consensus
Alibaba (BABA 92.07, -2.80, -2.95%): Lower in response to news that several Chinese companies announced plans to delist at the NYSE.
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8919 posts
10036 upvotes
Peak 2s5s and 2s vs further out the curve spread Benchmark inversions troughed on Aug 8/9, inline with a change in expectations for the FOMC. Same with the Canada curve.
Images
  • UST 2s5s 2s10s 2s30s - Copy.png
  • UST curve inversion - Copy.JPG
Deal Addict
Aug 18, 2003
2269 posts
1182 upvotes
YVR
16-Aug-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -39.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 21 points and are 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 9 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

Futures for the major indices are softer this morning after yesterday's rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures recouped some losses after Walmart's (WMT) favorable earnings report.

In overseas news, China's government announced that new onshore bond issues from select developers will be guaranteed and there was speculation that the government will provide additional stimulus to boost growth. Also, there are growing expectations that a nuclear deal with Iran will be reached. Iran said Monday there are several issues with the nuclear deal that the U.S. needs to address before Iran will agree to it.

Market participants will receive the July Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.543 million; prior 1.559 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.647 million; prior 1.685 million) at 8:30 a.m. ET. July Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%; prior -0.2%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 80.2%; prior 80.0%) at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Energy complex futures are on the rise. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $90.26/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 3.1% to $9.00/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 0.1% to $2.95/gal.

Treasury yields are also on the rise with the 2-yr note yield up two basis points to 3.20% while the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 2.81%.

In corporate news:

Walmart (WMT 137.59, +4.99, +3.76%): beats by $0.17, beats on revs; Q2 US comps +6.5%; guides Q3 EPS in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus
Home Depot (HD 313.23, -1.38, -0.44%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Q2 comps +5.8%; reaffirms EPS, revs, and comp guidance
American Airlines (AAL 15.34, +0.01, +0.07%): American Airlines removes 31000 flights from November schedule.
Tencent Music (TME 4.8500, +0.18, +3.85%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs
Sea Limited (SE 86.19, -3.78, -4.20%): beats by $0.03, misses on revs; will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022
Patience comes to those who wait
Deal Fanatic
Aug 17, 2008
8919 posts
10036 upvotes
Bias changing

Investors no longer 'apocalyptically bearish', Bank of America poll says
August 16, 2022 11:13 AM EDT
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/in ... 022-08-16/

BofA, which polled investors overseeing $836 billion in assets between Aug. 5-11, said on Tuesday they had cut back a net underweight position in equities to minus 26%. That was an improvement on the low of minus 44% in July, a level last seen in the 2008 global financial crisis.

But fears of economic slowdown continued to rise, with 58% of investors anticipating a global economic recession in the next 12 months, up from 47% last month and the highest since May 2020.

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