The Short-Term Trading Thread

Update to Jun 1st, 2022 10:49 am. See attached via Refinitiv.

MrMom wrote: ↑ @Charles FYI, not checking in as often. The news I posted is a month old, but on its' own it would have been positive. Mkt liquidity in T's is poor, so sharp moves should be expected. Moves could be caused by flows in the underlying you or others don't see.

I think this is still the key mkt driver, Nov 16th, 2021 2:06 pm #33 (Inflation & Interest Rates Discussion)

Read CL OI was at it's lowest in IDK how long. Pretty much says holding onto trades trying to make stretch wins a poor proposition.

Update #1

The lack of liquidity is being blamed on the largest UST buyer going the other way, but liquidity in all mkts has been steadily eroding with regulations and capital constraints coming into place over the last decade. That has been the biggest driver, not fewer market participants.

Update #2

Adding the url to the article initially posted on the attachment
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-t ... 022-08-31/

I'm at a loss on how the mkt might react either way on NFP. Maybe I'm in summer mode and don't care? The PA is set regardless.



Update: Release

Morning summary
02-Sep-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.40.
The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 3 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 4 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

Market participants lack conviction in the premarket trade with equity futures mixed ahead of the August Jobs Report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Overseas, Chinese tech hub Shenzhen is extending Covid curbs on public activities, but stopped short of a full lockdown, according to Reuters.

Energy complex futures are mixed with WTI crude oil futures up 1.7% to $88.09/bbl while natural gas futures are down 3.1% to $8.98/mmbtu.

Treasury yields are modestly lower with the 2-yr note yield down six basis points to 3.47%. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.25%.

The closely watched August Jobs Report includes: Nonfarm Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 300,000; prior 528,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 280,000; prior 471,000), Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), Unemployment Rate (Briefing.com consensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%), and Average Workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.6; prior 34.6).

At 10:00 a.m. ET, July Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 2.0%) will be released.

In corporate news:

Starbucks (SBUX 85.48, +0.08, +0.09%): confirms Laxman Narasimhan as next CEO, effective April 2023; will be incoming CEO on October 1, 2022
lululemon athletica (LULU 322.64, +28.19, +9.57%): beats by $0.34, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
PagerDuty (PD 25.51, +1.41, +5.85%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Broadcom (AVGO 502.35, +10.34, +2.10%): beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line; guides OctQ revs above consensus
Amazon (AMZN 127.44, -0.38, -0.30%): A labor official believes Amazon (AMZN) union victory at New York location should be upheld, according to The Wall Street Journal
Dow (DOW 49.33, -0.63, -1.26%): downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
Smartsheet (SMAR 30.90, +0.08, +0.26%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

Have a good long weekend everyone.

MrMom wrote: ↑ Have a good long weekend everyone.

You too!

Walked in and saw the Nord Stream 1 news. Posted elsewhere too.

I'm probably not going to do anything, but here's an idea to go long, UUP

https://schrts.co/qBHWSkeT

Gallows humour

MrMom wrote: ↑ Walked in and saw the Nord Stream 1 news. Posted elsewhere too.

I'm probably not going to do anything, but here's an idea to go long, UUP

https://schrts.co/qBHWSkeT

Gallows humour

I went long EQNR when I heard.

Hello ST thread, my old friend

@MrMoM damn we must follow the same subset of fintwit. Wifey or no?

Well, at least the Russians finally came out and said what everyone already knew and what North Americans suspected for years, but the Europeans had a blind spot for. No need to tip toe around what might happen now.



"Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key pipeline, which delivers gas to Germany from St Petersburg via the Baltic sea."

MrMom wrote: ↑ Well, at least the Russians finally came out and said what everyone already knew and what North Americans suspected for years, but the Europeans had a blind spot for. No need to tip toe around what might happen now.



"Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, blamed EU, UK, and Canadian sanctions for Russia’s failure to deliver gas through the key pipeline, which delivers gas to Germany from St Petersburg via the Baltic sea."

I think the europeans saw this coming about 6 months ago and startled scrambling. France for example has over 90% of it's ngas containers full in reserve and should last a year. I'm hoping the alt pipelines from north africa come online and the norwegians make up the difference.

Putin's gambit may have won the short term but long term russia cannot rely on this energy threat anymore. He's ultimately made the europeans more self reliant and also stronger militarily via NATO. Major fails on his part.

+50bps expected from the RBA at 12:30am ET

Russia says its considering setting up its own insurer to ship oil
05/09/2022 | 21:25 GMT-4
https://www.forexlive.com/news/russia-s ... -20220906/

• Russia will respond to price caps on Russian oil by shipping more oil to Asia
• Russia and partners are considering setting up own insurer to facilitate oil trade

Update

Parallels in the RBA move for Canada?

https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2 ... 22-28.html

Morning summary
06-Sep-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +24.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +76.00.
The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 76 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 186 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

Equity futures are positive after last week's selling. There's a lingering feeling the market may be due for a bounce from a short-term oversold condition.

There's some central bank news in the mix. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash target rate by 50 basis points to 2.35%, as expected, and said more rate hikes are likely but won't be on a pre-set path. A focal point this week will be the ECB meeting on Thursday and whether the central bank raises its key policy rate by 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia has indicated that the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be long lasting.

On a related note, OPEC+ is implementing a small production cut of 100,000 barrels per day.

Energy complex futures are trending lower with WTI crude oil futures down 0.2% to $86.68/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.4% to $8.66/mmbtu.

In corporate news:

Tesla (TSLA 271.28, +1.07, +0.40%): upgraded to outperform from peer perform at Wolfe Research
CVS Health (CVS 99.78, +0.34, +0.34%): Signify Health to be acquired by CVS Health (CVS) for $30.50 per share
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 7.31, -1.32, -15.30%): mourns the loss of CFO; Medical examiner rules death of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) CFO Gustavo Arnal a suicide, according to Reuters.
Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC 19.35, -5.64, -22.57%): Truth Social did not get shareholder support from Digital World (DWAC) to extend SPAC deal (SPACS), according to Reuters.

Morning summary
07-Sep-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00.
The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading in-line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 7 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 6 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

Equity futures are mixed and little changed. There's a lingering feeling the market is oversold on a short-term basis after the Nasdaq closed down for the seventh consecutive session.

The US dollar continues to run with the US Dollar Index up 0.4% to 110.70 while the yen keeps weakening (USD/JPY +1.5% to 144.87). Meanwhile, China Securities Times pushed back against concerns regarding the yuan's fall to 7.0000 per dollar.

On a related note, China's trade surplus missed August expectations due to below-consensus growth in imports and exports.

In other overseas news, Russia's President Putin warned that oil and gas contracts will not be respected if prices are capped.

Richmond Fed President Barkin (not an FOMC voter) said in an interview that rates must remain high until easing of inflation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is on track to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the September meeting. This come ahead of the ECB meeting on tomorrow, which participants are closely watching to see if the central bank raises its key policy rate by 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

Treasury yields are modestly lower with the 2-yr note yield down two basis points to 3.49% while the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.33%.

Also, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index showed a 0.8% decline compared to last week's 3.7% decline.

In corporate news:

Apple (AAPL 155.05, +0.52, +0.34%) will unveil new iPhones, Apple Watches, and other products at event today at 13:00 ET
Target (TGT 163.00, -0.58, -0.35%)announces Brian Cornell plans to remain on as CEO for approx. three more years; chief supply chain and logistics officer to retire
Newell Brands (NWL 16.30, -0.78, -4.57%): lowers Q3 and FY22 EPS and revenue guidance below consensus due to greater than expected pullback in retailer orders
Coupa Software (COUP 62.54, +6.72, +12.04%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; also announces a $100 mln share repurchase program
NIO (NIO 16.12, -0.99, -5.79%): beats by CNY0.03, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus
Guidewire Software (GWRE 66.50, -0.69, -1.03%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides OctQ revs above consensus; guides FY23 mid-point of revs above consensus
UiPath (PATH 12.14, -3.45, -22.13%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides OctQ revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

BoC +0.75

Morning summary
08-Sep-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -23.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 2 point and are trading in-line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 4 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

Equity futures are not doing much this morning. It's a bit of a wait-and-see trade with market participants looking to see if the market can build on yesterday's gain. Participants also await the ECB decision and Fed Chair Powell's discussion at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference later this morning.

In overseas news, British Prime Minister Truss announced that a fracking ban will be lifted and that household energy bills will be limited to GBP2,500 per annum for the next two years.

Japan's Q2 GDP was better-than-expected at 3.5% year-over-year from the last reading of 2.2% year-over-year. Japan's deputy chief cabinet secretary said that the yen's movement is being watched with a strong sense of urgency. USD/JPY -0.2% to 143.46.

Energy complex futures are mixed after yesterday's sell-off. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $82.06/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.2% to $7.82/mmbtu.

Treasury yields are lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.41% while the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.22%.

In corporate news:

McCormick (MKC 79.46, -5.54, -6.52%): guides Q3 (Aug) EPS and revs below consensus and trims its FY22 outlook due to inflationary pressures resulting in higher price elasticity than expected as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions
American Eagle (AEO 10.06, -1.53, -13.20%): misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; will pause dividend; plans to cut expenses and cap-ex
GameStop (GME 25.60, +1.56, +6.49%): beats by $0.07, misses on revs; enters into partnership with FTX, making company FTX's preferred retail partner in the U.S.
Casey's General (CASY 217.90, -3.50, -1.58%): beats by $0.41, reports revs in-line, inside comps +6.3%, fuel gallons comps -2.3%; reaffirms FY23 outlook of +4-6% inside comps and fuel gallons comps of flat to +2%
Asana (ASAN 23.54, +4.50, +23.63%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY23 revs above consensus; expects to reach free cash flow positive before the end of CY24
Advanced Micro (AMD 80.44, +0.83, +1.04%): initiated with a Buy at Stifel
First Solar (FSLR 139.24, +4.44, +3.29%): upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman Sachs

@Charles FSLR has been on a roll, "What did you buy? What might you buy??" Aug 10th, 2022 1:06 pm

Weekly chart, https://schrts.co/YjIsEBir

Other "clean energy" reversed yday higher. Will look at ICLN with what small USD cash I have atm. Maybe HCLN on the CAD side. Volumes on HCLN maybe too low for my liking.

Update

Picked up some ICLN over lunchtime.

RIP Queen Elizabeth

MrMom wrote: ↑ @Charles FSLR has been on a roll, "What did you buy? What might you buy??" Aug 10th, 2022 1:06 pm

Weekly chart, https://schrts.co/YjIsEBir

Other "clean energy" reversed yday higher. Will look at ICLN with what small USD cash I have atm. Maybe HCLN on the CAD side. Volumes on HCLN maybe too low for my liking.

Wow what a run; sometimes it's appropriate to chase... clearly.

Powell live on BloombergTV

It's odd both ECB and Fed talk at the same time

Morning summary
09-Sep-22 08:03 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +29.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +118.40.
The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 120 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 197 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

The equity futures market has a decidedly positive bias with carryover momentum from recent gains driving the upside.

Other support factors include softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings out of China, a weakening dollar, better-than-expected results and guidance from DocuSign (DOCU), and bearish investor sentiment readings that are acting as a contrarian catalyst.

The US Dollar Index is down 0.7% to 108.94. EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.0054. USD/JPY is down 1.1% to 142.55 after BOJ Governor Kuroda said rapid moves in the yen are not desirable. At the same time, cryptocurrencies are in rally mode with the risk-on sentiment.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield is flat at 3.49% while the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.27%.

In corporate news:

RH (RH 265.00 +3.29 +1.26%): beats by $1.38, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs in-line
DocuSign (DOCU 67.51 +9.56 +16.50%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance
Zscaler (ZS 176.67 +22.42 ): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
T-Mobile US (TMUS 147.77 +2.40 +1.65%): authorizes a stock repurchase program for up to $14.0 bln of common stock through September 30, 2023 - SEC Filing
Zumiez (ZUMZ 22.66 -3.88 -14.62%): misses by $0.31, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Caterpillar (CAT 186.00 +2.85 +1.56%): reaches a settlement with the IRS that resolves all issues for tax years 2007-2016, without any penalties