The Short-Term Trading Thread

Waited long enough for someone else to post the Fed report. Broad survey ≠ most RFD posts. Actual adverb was "steep."

Despite holding board lots of ICLN, I was left with an odd lot for sale at $23.10. Still "working the order" after hours.

Update

Lifted out of the odd lot.

@Charles If you read in some of the other RFD Investing threads, ppl have been walking back their bearishness. 100% investor psychology at work as the rapid rise in US inflation data has tailed off recently and those who are either short or sitting on the sidelines with lots of cash might capitulate. You can see some of that already happening in individual equities. Looking for a rip if todays #'s are benign. The hardcore bears need to be right and will remain bearish.



Update

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - AUGUST 2022 excerpt;

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the broad-based monthly all items increase. These increases were mostly offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 5.0 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the electricity and natural gas indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. The indexes for shelter, medical care, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in August, including those for airline fares, communication, and used cars and trucks.

8.3% and markets crash bigly


Price increases over last year (CPI report)...
Fuel Oil: +68.8%
Gas Utilities: +33.0%
Gasoline: +25.6%
Electricity: +15.8%
Food at home: +13.5%
Transportation: +11.3%
New Cars: +10.1%
Overall CPI: +8.3%
Food away from home: 8.0%
Used Cars: +7.8%
Shelter: +6.2%
Medical Care: +5.6%

Morning summary
13-Sep-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +13.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.50.
The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 89 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 211 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Equity futures have a positive disposition thanks to carryover upside momentum and optimism that the August CPI release will support the peak inflation narrative, feeding a view the Fed might cut rates next year.

The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, according to Reuters, showed the highest cash levels since 2001 and record low exposure to global equities, which is acting as a contrarian support factor.

A railroad worker strike could begin Friday as two of the largest railroad unions have yet to reach an agreement to avoid a strike; however, it is thought the government will intervene to prevent any outsized economic impact from a possible strike.

Treasury yields are pulling back this morning with the 2-yr note yield down four basis points to 3.52% and the 10-yr note yield down four basis points to 3.31%.

Energy complex futures are moving higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.4% to $88.98/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.2% to $8.35/mmbtu.

The closely-watched August CPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 0.0%) and core CPI (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%; prior +0.3%) are out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

Akero Therapeutics (AKRO 23.47, +11.20, +91.28%): In Akero Therapeutics’ Phase 2b HARMONY Study, Both the 50mg and 28mg EFX Doses Achieved Statistical Significance on Primary and Secondary Histology Endpoints after 24 Weeks
Peloton (PTON 11.18, +0.13, +1.18%): announces leadership changes, including resignation of Executive Chair John Foley, who co-founded the company; appoints Karen Boone as Chairperson of the Board, who previously served as President and CFO of Restoration Hardware
Planet Labs (PL 6.07, +0.65, +11.99%): misses by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus
Rent the Runway (RENT 3.7300, -1.20, -24.34%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus; announces restructuring plan to reduce costs, including a 24% workforce reduction
Oracle (ORCL 78.42, +1.34, +1.74%): misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 (Nov) adjusted EPS below consensus, revs below consensus largely due to FX headwinds; announces that MySQL HeatWave is now available on AWS
Catalyst Pharma (CPRX 16.30, +1.15, +7.59%): will replace Mantech International Corp. (MANT) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on September 15
Braze (BRZE 41.49, -2.09, -4.80%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Twitter (TWTR 41.71, +0.30, +0.72%): Twitter shareholders approve sale to Elon Musk
AppLovin (APP 29.27, +0.76, +2.67%): confirms that it does not intend to submit another proposal to combine with Unity Software and has withdrawn its initial proposal
Eastman Chemical (EMN 93.94, -0.93, -0.98%): sees Q3 EPS well below consensus

you just can't wish for inflation to improve.

Charles wrote: ↑ you just can't wish for inflation to improve.

I woke up today and it was June again.

Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE, is to be released next on Sept 30.

Volmageddon

"Pivot boys" are just "Team transitory" renamed

Morning summary
14-Sep-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -25.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -100.70.
The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 23 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

Equity futures are modestly weaker as participants weigh concerns over the Fed raising rates higher than expected for longer than expected and the potential for a hard landing. This comes ahead of another inflation reading out later this morning, the August PPI release.

Overseas, there was some speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing to intervene in the currency market to slow the yen's depreciation against the dollar.

The MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 1.2% compared to last week. Purchase applications rose 0.2% while refinancing applications fell 4.0%.

Other economic data released today includes August PPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.5%) and core PPI (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%; prior +0.2%) at 8:30 a.m. ET and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +8.84 million) at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Treasury yields are on the rise this morning with the 2-yr note yield up seven basis points to 3.83% and the 10-yr note yield up four basis points to 3.46%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 109.61.

In corporate news:

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 12.90, -0.05, -0.39%): lower on report it plans to layoff about 30% of its ad sales employees, according to Deadline
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 161.83, +0.50, +0.31%): authorized the repurchase of up to $5 billion of the company's common stock; reaffirms its full-year 2022 guidance
Stellantis (STLA 13.61, +0.20, +1.49%): Company and General Motors (GM) to execute a share repurchase transaction
Starbucks (SBUX 89.25, +1.41, +1.61%): provides new growth targets in Reinvention Plan
Raytheon Technologies (RTX 84.30, +0.58, +0.69%): lowers its FY22 free cash flow outlook to account for the impact of certain legislation; reaffirms FY22 sales and EPS guidance
Flowserve (FLS 30.02, -0.77, -2.50%): provides an update on expected Q3 results, disclosing that two events are expected to negatively impact EPS by $0.18-$0.22
Alphabet (GOOG 105.53, +0.22, +0.21%): EU General Court largely confirms the Commission’s decision that Google imposed unlawful restrictions on manufacturers of Android mobile devices and mobile network operators in order to consolidate the dominant position of its search engine
Akero Therapeutics (AKRO 28.70, -0.35, -1.20%): commences $175 mln common stock offering; upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI
Nucor (NUE 129.25, -6.85, -5.03%): sees Q3 earnings below consensus

European indices lower while Asian indices are mixed
15-Sep-22 09:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.30.
The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading in-line fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki said that a potential intervention in the currency market will not be announced ahead of time and would be "swift and without pause." There was some press speculation that Japan will call on citizens to conserve power during the winter. South Korea reportedly sold dollars to support the won. Some banks in China have reportedly cut personal deposit rates. ASB Bank expects that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate will peak at 4.25%, 25 bps above the prior forecast.

In economic data:
Japan's August trade deficit JPY2.817 trln (expected deficit of JPY2.398 trln; last deficit of JPY1.434 trln). August Imports 49.9% yr/yr (expected 46.7%; last 47.2%) and Exports 22.1% yr/yr (expected 23.6%; last 19.0%). July Tertiary Industry Activity Index -0.6% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.4%)
Australia's August Employment Change 33,500 (expected 35,000; last -41,000) and full employment change 58,800 (last -86,900). August Participation Rate 66.6%, as expected (last 66.4%) and August Unemployment Rate 3.5% (expected 3.4%; last 3.4%). MI Inflation Expectations 5.4% (last 5.9%)
New Zealand's Q2 GDP 1.7% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last -0.2%); 0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 1.2%)

Anyone think the railway strike in the us actually happens? it appears heading to a stalemate...no last minute save.

Charles wrote: ↑ Anyone think the railway strike in the us actually happens? it appears heading to a stalemate...no last minute save.

"WASHINGTON—The White House said Thursday it had reached a tentative agreement to avoid a potential railway strike that threatened to shut down a crucial vein of the U.S. economy."

smartie wrote: ↑ "WASHINGTON—The White House said Thursday it had reached a tentative agreement to avoid a potential railway strike that threatened to shut down a crucial vein of the U.S. economy."

thanks lol

I just noticed, but IDK why. Here you go anyway.

BLNK


CHPT

why is Gold crashing? USD's rise can't explain all of it

Morning Summary
16-Sep-22 08:03 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -47.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -178.80.
The S&P 500 futures are down 30 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 105 points and are trading 1.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 209 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value.

Equity futures are decidedly weak on this options expiration day following the warning from FedEx (FDX), which piled onto existing concerns about inflation and rate hikes with a backdrop of slowing global growth.

Overseas, the UK had weaker-than-expected retail sales in August. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said that rates are still too low at this time, adding that he sees "a few" rate hikes in the coming months. South Korea's unemployment rate reached its lowest level in the 23-year history of the series.

Separately, the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.88% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.46%.

Energy complex futures are mixed ahead of the open. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $85.98/bbl while natural gas futures are down 1.2% to $8.22/mmbtu.

Market participants will receive the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading (Briefing.com consensus 60.0; prior 58.2) for September at 10:00 a.m. ET and Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July at 4:00 p.m. ET.

In corporate news:

FedEx (FDX 162.61, -42.26, -20.63%): guides 1Q23 EPS well below consensus and guides Q2 EPS and revenue below consensus, citing global volume softness, particularly due to macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe; also withdraws FY23 earnings guidance
Uber (UBER 31.84, -1.29, -3.89%): lower on security breach news
NCR Corp (NCR 24.20, -4.91, -16.87%): to separate into two independent companies
Roblox (RBLX 42.78, -0.72, -1.66%): reports August metrics - Daily active users were 59.9 million, up 24% yr/yr
Texas Instruments (TXN 163.03, +0.36, +0.22%): raises its quarterly dividend 8% to $1.24/share, payable November 15; authorizes an additional $15 bln for share repurchases
Adobe (ADBE 300.55, -8.58, -2.78%):BofA Securities downgrades to Neutral from Buy
General Electric (GE 66.00, -2.91, -4.22%): CFO acknowledges that supply chain issues will reduce profit, according to Bloomberg

Elfwood wrote: ↑ why is Gold crashing? USD's rise can't explain all of it

That was my only take, but I don't give gold much attention.

Elfwood wrote: ↑ why is Gold crashing? USD's rise can't explain all of it

Sometimes the obvious can seem "too obvious"... I posted in Gold thread (and other) a few weeks back my expectation for gold in the $1600's due to $USD and IR trajectory. Think of Gold as an inverse $USD currency play (as BTC) and the moves become much more logical.

Gold, $USD, BTC Charting

Japanese holiday tonight, UK out tomorrow. Cdn CPI on Tues, yawn. FOMC on Wed. Will check back in then.

See my quoted url for more detailed info.

Sep 19th, 2022 3:42 pm

smartie wrote: ↑ When Fed reports balance sheet changes? Haven't seen the drop in September

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... trends.htm

This Thursday?

Charts are generally updated at noon ET the day following the publication of the H.4.1, which is typically published at 4:30 ET on Thursdays.

Jan 28th, 2019 7:52 am

MrMom wrote: ↑ It started off innocently enough last night, but one thing lead to another and the next thing you know, I'm looking at a Fed balance sheet report.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

The Fed reports their holdings in after RPB numbers. Not the way I guessed they might. This makes sense as that's more transparent then leaving the market to guess what the actual amount held is. So I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first nor last time.

We'll be seeing more articles like the one in this mornings WSJ, "A $4 Trillion Scapegoat for Market Volatility: the Fed’s Shrinking Portfolio"

Some investors blame the stock market’s volatility on the Federal Reserve shrinking its bond portfolio, but the critique puzzles Fed officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-4-trilli ... 1548671432?

It wasn't really that they were running it off, everyone knew that. It's the way Powell conveyed the message.

Loose thread cleaned up hopefully. Back to the dart board.