The Short-Term Trading Thread

Morning Summary
28-Nov-22 08:06 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -36.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -127.50.
The S&P 500 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 86 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 188 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.

There's a negative tone in the equity futures market that is being fed reportedly by concerns over protests in China due to the zero-COVID policy. Also, it appears as if a consolidation mindset is kicking in after some strong gain of late and as the S&P 500 approaches its 200-day moving average (4054).

OPEC+ will decide on production amounts ahead of the planned December 5 EU ban on most Russian crude imports, according to The Wall Street Journal.

On a related note, energy complex futures are trading down this morning on growth concerns connected to China. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.0% to $74.03/bbl and natural gas futures are down 3.7% to $7.05/mmbtu.

There is no U.S. economic data of note today, but market participants have a big slate of data coming up this week that includes: November Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET Tuesday, Q3 GDP Second Estimate at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, October PCE Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, and the November Employment Report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

In corporate news:

Williams-Sonoma (WSM 117.01, -5.41,, -4.4%): downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD 58.97, +2.38, +4.2%): upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JPMorgan
Las Vegas Sands (LVS 44.51, +1.34, +3.1%), Wynn Resort (WYNN 79.41, +4.48, +6.0%), and MGM Resorts (MGM 36.53, +0.80, +2.2%): Chinese government renewed casino licenses for Macau
Chevron (CVX 180.31, -3.39, -1.9%): U.S. government granted license to resume oil production in Venezuela, according to Bloomberg
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM 64.30, +7.48, +13.2%): announces AXS-05 achieves primary endpoint in the ACCORD phase 3 Trial in Alzheimer's Disease Agitation
Biogen (BIIB 293.99, -11.16, -3.7%): Another death was linked to Lecanemab, according to Science.Org
Apple (AAPL 145.50, -2.61, -1.8%): could lose 6 million iPhone Pro models from events at the Foxconn plant, according to Bloomberg.

Morning Summary
29-Nov-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +58.50.
The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly above fair value.

Equity futures are mixed, but things are generally more positive as speculation grows that China may temper its zero-COVID measures. The country reported its first decline in COVID infections in more than a week and Chinese officials announced they're aiming to increase vaccination rates among older people, according to Bloomberg. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 5.2% on the news.

WTI crude oil futures have continued to rebound ($78.92/bbl, +1.67, +2.1%) on these latest developments.

Treasury yields are moving lower. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.66% and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.43% with some cooler-than-expected inflation readings out of Europe contributing to the buying interest.

Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

9:00 a.m. ET: September FHFA Housing Price Index (prior -0.7%)
9:00 a.m. ET: September S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 10.7%; prior 13.1%)
10:00 a.m. ET: November Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 100.0; prior 102.5)
In corporate news:

Roku (ROKU 52.35, -1.56, -2.9%): downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
UnitedHealth (UNH 530.10, -2.17, -0.4%): updates FY22 outlook and introduces FY23 outlook ahead of its Investor Conference; reaffirms FY22 earnings, guides revs ahead of consensus; guides FY23 earnings below consensus, revs above
Microchip (MCHP 75.25, +0.91, +1.2%): reiterates its Q3 (Dec) net sales guidance and expectations for sequential revenue growth for Q4 (Mar)
Hibbett (HIBB 63.70, -3.90, -5.8%): misses by $0.57, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Bilibili (BILI 13.88, +1.29, +10.3%): beats by RMB0.20, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus
UPS (UPS 182.50, +2.59, +1.4%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Deal flow

Now the dots are connected on the big Canadian dollar drop today
https://www.forexlive.com/news/now-the- ... -20221129/

Morning Summary
30-Nov-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.80.
The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 13 points and are trading slightly above fair value.

Although the futures are currently trading higher, there's a mostly wait-and-see disposition in front of Fed Chair Powell's speech today at 1:30 p.m. ET at the Brookings Institution entitled Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market.

Market participants are also taking into account some overseas economic data, including a cooler-than-expected CPI reading out of the eurozone for November, and weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI readings out of China that fell further into contraction territory (i.e. sub-50 readings).

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% compared to last week with purchase applications rising 4% while refinancing applications fell 13%.

Other data releases today include:

8:15 ET: November ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 200,000; prior 239,000)
8:30 ET: October international goods trade deficit (prior $92.20 bln), October advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.4%), October advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 0.8%), Q3 GDP -- Second Estimate (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%; prior 2.6%), and Q3 GDP Deflator -- Second Estimate (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
9:45 ET: November Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 47.5; prior 45.2)
10:00 ET: October Pending Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus -5.2%; prior -10.2%); October JOLTS - Job Openings (prior 10.717 million)
10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.69 mln)
14:00 ET: Fed's Beige Book
Treasury yields are mixed this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.48% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.73%.

In corporate news:

Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP 104.72, +25.96, +33.0%): received takeover interest from (AMGN, JNJ, SNY), according to The Wall Street Journal.
CrowdStrike (CRWD 113.28, -24.72, -17.9%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs but says that total net new ARR was below expectations; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Workday (WDAY 156.67, +13.37, +9.3%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 subscription revenue guidance; approves new share repurchase program for up to $500 mln
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 15.75, +0.29, +1.9%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; reaffirms FY22 EPS guidance
NetApp (NTAP 64.01, -7.78, -10.8%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
Hormel Foods (HRL 44.77, -3.42, -7.1%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Intuit (INTU 378.99, -0.72, -0.2%): beats by $0.46, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, guides FY23 revs below consensus; Credit Karma experienced continuing deterioration
Biogen (BIIB 299.92, +8.51, +2.9%): Eleven experts from leading medical institutions and eight experts from Eisai publish full results of Lecanemab Phase 3 confirmatory clarity ad study for early Alzheimer's disease in the New England Journal of Medicine
Micron (MU 54.65, -0.47, -0.9%): during its presentation at Wells Fargo TMT Summit: "Pricing has trended well below what we thought it would be when we had our earnings call [on September 29]"
Boeing (BA 177.75, +2.25, +1.3%): Lawmakers close to compromise on Boeing 737 Max certification, according to Bloomberg.

China EV co's

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/cand ... PEV|B|null

MrMom wrote: ↑ China EV co's

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/cand ... PEV|B|null

those are some big candles

MrMom wrote: ↑A reverse indicator has spoken

"Bill Ackman doubts the Fed can tame inflation, says higher prices ahead" - CNBC

Charles wrote: ↑ That's almost as reliable as reverso - Jim Cramer. Thanks!

Bingo

Morning Summary
01-Dec-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30.
The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Market participants are taking a pause this morning, waiting to see if there's follow through from yesterday's rally. Equity futures are mixed and little changed in front of key economic releases today, including the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims, the November ISM Manufacturing Index, and the Personal Spending and Income Report, which contains the PCE Price Index.

China will ease some of its coronavirus protocols, including allowing isolation at home and reduction in mass testing, according to Reuters.

Treasury yields still declining. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.31% and the 10-yr note yield is down 11 basis points to 3.59%.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.6% to 105.40.

In corporate news:

Salesforce (CRM 148.46, -11.79, -7.4%): beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; announces that Bret Taylor will step down as Vice Chair and Co-CEO, effective January 31, 2023; Marc Benioff will be Chair and CEO of the company
Splunk (SPLK 83.74, +6.06, +7.8%): beats by $0.58, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; slightly lowers FY23 Cloud ARR guidance
Box (BOX 27.44, -0.01, -0.04%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
Snowflake (SNOW 136.28, -6.62, -4.6%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; Sees Q4 Product revenue between $535-540 mln, up 49-50% yr/yr
Okta (OKTA 62.39, +9.07, +17.0%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Five Below (FIVE 176.00, +15.14, +9.4%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs, comps better than expected; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Elastic (ESTC 52.19, -9.00, -14.7%): beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; also announces workforce reduction
Synopsys (SNPS 365.00, +25.46, +7.5%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Dollar General (DG 241.99, -13.69, -5.4%): misses by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS below consensus; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance
G-III Apparel (GIII 15.82, -5.81, -26.9%): misses by $0.49, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance; also extends license agreements for Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger
General Electric (GE 86.20, +0.23, +0.3%): Board of Directors approves previously announced spin-off of its healthcare business; GE Healthcare expected to begin trading on Nasdaq on January 4, 2023, under the ticker “GEHC”
Costco (COST 524.24, -15.01, -2.9%): reports November adjusted comparable sales growth of 5.3%

MrMom wrote: ↑

Thanks for posting this. It's actually as important if not more of an indicator then Wed's remarks by Powell that prompted that rally.

Not an ideal headline number for most who are generally long.

Bearish Avg hourly earnings YoY and MoM.

Update #1

The Cdn numbers are irrelevant because of the volatility in the reporting.

Update #2

"Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government.
Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing."


The "Household Survey Data" (-186k) ≠ to the "Establishment Survey Data" (+263k)!
<(Update #3): More focus required here ^.>

In November, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Leisure and hospitality added 88,000 jobs in November, including a gain of 62,000 in food services and drinking places. Leisure and hospitality has added an average of 82,000 jobs per month thus far this year, less than half the average gain of 196,000 jobs per month in 2021. Employment in leisure and hospitality is below its pre-pandemic February 2020 level by 980,000, or 5.8 percent.

<ed: I don't think many will argue more in the following sector is better.>

In November, employment in health care rose by 45,000, with gains in ambulatory health care services (+23,000), hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+10,000). So far in 2022, health care employment has increased by an average of 47,000 per month, well above the 2021 average monthly gain of 9,000.

Government added 42,000 jobs in November, mostly in local government (+32,000). Government employment has increased by an average of 25,000 per month thus far this year, compared with 38,000 per month in 2021. Since February 2020, government employment is down by 461,000, or 2.0 percent.

In November, employment in the other services industry rose by 24,000, as personal and laundry services added 11,000 jobs over the month. Other services employment has increased by an average of 15,000 per month thus far this year, compared with 24,000 per month in 2021. Employment in other services is below its February 2020 level by 186,000, or 3.1 percent.

<ed: There's more courier vans going up and down our street than ever, so maybe more are independent drivers? I've seen couriers use a rental van.>

Employment in transportation and warehousing declined by 15,000 in November and has decreased by 38,000 since July. In November, job losses in warehousing and storage (-13,000) and in couriers and messengers (-12,000) were partially offset by a job gain in air transportation (+4,000).

Morning Summary
02-Dec-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00.
The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 14 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

There's a mixed disposition in the equity futures market. Moves are modest as participants await the employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

China is suggesting it will take "baby steps" to move away from its zero-COIVD policy, according to the Washington Post.

EU governments have tentatively agreed on a $60/barrel price cap on Russian oil, according to Reuters.

This comes amid speculation that OPEC+ will consider production cuts ahead of its meeting early next week.

The eurozone reported a welcome weaker-than-expected October PPI (-2.9% month-over-month), but PPI is still up 30.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 104.44.

Treasury yields continue to pullback. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.20% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.51%.

In corporate news:

Marvell (MRVL 43.11, -2.29, -5.0%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
Ambarella (AMBA 72.15, -1.78, -2.4%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus
Ulta Beauty (ULTA 479.99, +.746, +1.5%): beats by $1.21, beats on revs, comps of +14.6%; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus, raises comp guidance
Zscaler (ZS 131.05, -13.45, -9.3%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; but disappointed with billings growth guidance
Smartsheet (SMAR 36.40, +3.89, +12.0%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
Veeva Systems (VEEV 184.30, -7.12, -3.7%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
PagerDuty (PD 24.25, +1.73, +7.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
Asana (ASAN 15.55, -2.53, -14.0%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus
UiPath (PATH 14.54, +1.62, +12.5%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus
Credit Suisse (CS 3.3300, +0.24, +7.8%): Chairman Axel Lehmann says liquidity situation is improving, according to Bloomberg interview

Non Farm Payrolls 263K vs 200k expected. THIS IS HOT.

wow, surprised.

++

stagflation still in the cards but the fed really has no choice but to raise rates.

they will accept a recession over structural inflation any time, any day

like a bad flu vs. cancer

MrMom wrote: ↑ The "Household Survey Data" (-186k) ≠ to the "Establishment Survey Data" (+263k)!
<(Update #3): More focus required here ^.>

Why the Household Survey number is important via the Richmond Fed.

August 10, 2021
The Jobs Numbers Don't Add Up?
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/na ... m_08_10_21

"With workers re-evaluating their participation decisions and switching jobs for better pay, more holistic measures give a better sense of labor market health than the unemployment rate or participation rate alone."

Have been eye ICLN again for a few days.


DK about the correlation to this news. Will have to look at the Holdings and see if FSLR is a large %. Nope, it's ENPH

Morning Summary
05-Dec-22 08:01 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -21.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -48.30.
The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 54 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.

Equity futures are weaker this morning with expectations for some consolidation after a big run in a short amount of time playing a role. The S&P 500 is still holding above its 200-day moving average (4,045), which is a key support level.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 4.5% following reports of Chinese cities easing up on some COVID restrictions.

OPEC+ said it will maintain its current production target and EU officials agreed to a $60.00/bbl price cap on Russian oil. Also, EU sanctions on seaborne Russian oil go into effect today.

Treasury yields are modestly higher and the U.S. Dollar Index is modestly lower. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.31% and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 104.33.

Market participants will receive the November ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.5%; prior 54.4%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. Other economic data out today includes: the final IHS Markit Services PMI for November (prior 46.1) at 9:45 a.m. ET and October Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%; prior 0.3%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

MGM Resorts (MGM 38.06, +0.98, +2.6%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist
Starbucks (SBUX 103.32, -1.73, -1.7%): downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
United Airlines (UAL 44.29, +0.40, +0.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Tesla (TSLA 185.89, -8.97, -4.6%): will have 20% lower Model Y output at Shanghai plant in December, according to Reuters
Live Nation (LYV 73.05, -0.87, -1.2%) : Taylor Swift fans file lawsuit against Ticket Master for presale ticket issues, according to Verge
Delta (DAL 35.74, +0.03, +0.1%): reaches tentative agreement with pilots union, according to CNBC

Morning Summary
06-Dec-22 07:57 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +33.30.
The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading roughly in line with above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 19 points and are trading somewhat above fair value.

The equity futures market indicates a modestly higher open as stocks try to bounce from yesterday's weakness.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.10%, as expected, while pointing to the likelihood of further tightening. European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said that he has confidence about being near the inflationary peak, but also acknowledged that more rate hikes are needed while policymaker Herodotou said that more rate hikes will take place, but neutral rates are "very close."

Treasury yields are moving lower and the dollar is weakening. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 105.00. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.36% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.56%.

WTI crude oil futures are down 1.5% to $75.78/bbl and natural gas futures are down 1.6% to $5.49/mmbtu.

Economic data today is limited to the October Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$77.2 billion; prior -$73.3 billion) at 8:30 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

JP Morgan (JPM 133.28, +1.91, +1.5%): upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Alcoa (AA 47.41, +0.89, +1.9%): moving higher on reports that the US and EU are weighing new tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum, according to Bloomberg
Royal Caribbean (RCL 58.19, -1.23, -2.1%): downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan
GameStop (GME 25.75, +0.19, +0.7%): has started layoffs, according to Axios
GitLab (GTLB 45.13, +6.80, +17.7%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
PepsiCo (PEP 183.44, +0.32, +0.2%): moving higher as company plans to lay off hundreds of workers at its North American snacks and beverage division headquarters, according to The Wall Street Journal
Vivint Smart Home (VVNT 11.86, +2.87, +31.9%): NRG Energy (NRG) to acquire Vivint for $12 per share or $2.8 bln in an all-cash transaction
Signet Jewelers (SIG 62.00, +4.17, +7.2%): beats by $0.42, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
AutoZone (AZO 2520.00, -6.92, -0.3%): beats by $2.17, beats on revs; Q1 domestic comps +5.6%

I've been thinking about UVXY since yesterday morning, but can't pull the trigger

MrMom wrote: ↑ I've been thinking about UVXY since yesterday morning, but can't pull the trigger

there is a disconnect between the vix and stock prices. I think the vix is way too low for this lofty SPY level. My macro is SPY down by 20% from here within 6 months - the vix "should rise" if I am correct....

Charles wrote: ↑ there is a disconnect between the vix and stock prices. I think the vix is way too low for this lofty SPY level. My macro is SPY down by 20% from here within 6 months - the vix "should rise" if I am correct....

I believe YIX is not inversely correlated with stock prices but rather it should be pegged to the volatility of index market? So to explain the reasoning you have described, the volatility of stocks keep diminishing and price action today is trending down.

I mean if you look at the NQ in maybe 3-6 month chart, we are sort of stuck in a box area.