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So glad I own TSLA!!!

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  • Mar 26th, 2024 10:00 pm
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Deal Expert
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Dec 11, 2005
20134 posts
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treva84 wrote: Let's see if it actually happens - like the solar shingle, semi, model y, etc.
I am unsure of you realize that 2/3 of those things already exist and one has been on sale over a year ???
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
Deal Addict
Nov 8, 2017
3133 posts
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treva84 wrote: Let's see if it actually happens - like the solar shingle, semi, model y, etc.
On a Jan. 31 earnings call, [Musk] told investors, “I’m optimistic about being profitable in Q1,”
“Not by a lot, but I’m optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.”
The company’s departing CFO Deepak Ahuja reiterated this, saying that even in scenarios with lower volumes and pricing Tesla had a “good shot” of being profitable going forward.

2016 didn't Musk also promise FSD hands-free driving from coast to coast in a year??
Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5882 posts
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Edmonton, AB
What happens in Q2, as the M3 international order book is exhausted and S/X sales continue to decline?

Image

Did they revise down guidance?

What's the point of Shanghai GF3 if no one is buying their cars (inventory keeps growing)?

Their cash balance decreased by ~ 1.6 billion including that ~900 million bond repayment, so that means they are burning about 500mill a quarter at present. At 2.198 billion cash at the end of Q1, that's 4 quarters. Considering they need ~1.25 on the books for their ABL, that's 2 quarters. Are they going to raise capital?

How are they going to start an insurance business and have reserves on hand for claims, if they are going to run out of cash in 2-4 quarters? Have they started to get the regulatory approval required to sell auto insurance?
Buy right, hold tight. Keep calm and go long.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
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alanbrenton wrote: What would be Tesla's AM Best Bond Rating?
Smiling Face With Open Mouth Good one Sir.

Update: TSLA 5.30/25 (Conv) Caa1/B-
Oct 10/18 $83.69
Dec 21/18 $85.08
Jan 3/19 $85.00
Apr 24/19 $85.00 last
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Jul 22, 2015
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Saint-Hubert, QC
brunes wrote: I am unsure of you realize that 2/3 of those things already exist and one has been on sale over a year ???
Only solar roof and even that you could argue.
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Sep 8, 2014
1911 posts
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Toronto, ON
treva84 wrote: The changes for S / X will probably make older S/X depreciate much faster - good for the used (but not new) car buyer as you mention.
Tesla's age well. The firmware is updated regularly, so cars still feel new many years later.

Tesla depreciation is lower (ie better) than any other EV and on par or better than most premium gas offerings.
I had our Tesla S up for sale last summer, I received an offer within 17% of the price I paid 3 years earlier.
Depreciation on our previous Mercedes SUV was far worse than the Tesla in same time period.

Note : I was ready to sell, but my wife decided to stick with the S for a few more years, she wants a Model X and is willing to wait for prices on used market to drop.
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Sep 8, 2014
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brunes wrote: Where do you shop for used?
https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

Tesla listed these cars. The above site scrapes the Tesla site and is easier to use. With a paid subscription (which I used at the time) you get text notifications when a car matches your criteria. I got my notification at 11PM and clicked buy now in 10 minutes and beat out everyone to one of the lowest priced Model S85's ever sold by Tesla on the CPO program in 2015. That's how a RFD user does it! ;-)
Deal Expert
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Dec 11, 2005
20134 posts
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treva84 wrote: What happens in Q2, as the M3 international order book is exhausted and S/X sales continue to decline?

What's the point of Shanghai GF3 if no one is buying their cars (inventory keeps growing)?
Source? What you're saying above sounds like total fiction compared with market realities actually occurring.

Since the order book is not public, and was not commented on during the earnings call, and it totally disagrees with word on the ground, I call total BS.

Good thoughts on the subject - "“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for faster horses,” - https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/th ... -3-demand/
SmartElectric wrote: https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

Tesla listed these cars. The above site scrapes the Tesla site and is easier to use. With a paid subscription (which I used at the time) you get text notifications when a car matches your criteria. I got my notification at 11PM and clicked buy now in 10 minutes and beat out everyone to one of the lowest priced Model S85's ever sold by Tesla on the CPO program in 2015. That's how a RFD user does it! ;-)
Wow thanks a lot for this, it is very helpful.

How do you feel about buying one with the AP 1.0 H/W? How much will a H/W upgrade cost any ideas?
To be nobody but yourself - in a world which is doing its best, night and day, to make you everybody else - means to fight the hardest battle which any human being can fight; and never stop fighting. -- E. E. Cummings
Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5882 posts
7458 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
brunes wrote: Source? What you're saying above sounds like total fiction compared with market realities actually occurring.

Since the order book is not public, and was not commented on during the earnings call, and it totally disagrees with word on the ground, I call total BS.
So what do you make of the previously reported delivery miss (only ~51k M3's delivered in Q1), in addition to the climbing inventory plus declining revenue, as outlined in the investor letter? What does that mean to you? To me, that means "we can't sell cars".
Buy right, hold tight. Keep calm and go long.
Deal Fanatic
Nov 9, 2013
5882 posts
7458 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
brunes wrote: ... realities actually occurring.
Here are some realities, straight from the horses mouth:
- M3 deliveries DOWN 20% QoQ
- M S/X deliveries DOWN 56% QoQ
- M3 production UP 3% QoQ
- Revenue DOWN 37% QoQ

Image
Buy right, hold tight. Keep calm and go long.
Deal Addict
Nov 8, 2017
3133 posts
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I guess used Tesla prices have one way to go: Down! :)
Deal Addict
Nov 8, 2017
3133 posts
1307 upvotes
treva84 wrote: Here are some realities, straight from the horses mouth:
- M3 deliveries DOWN 20% QoQ
- M S/X deliveries DOWN 56% QoQ
- M3 production UP 3% QoQ
- Revenue DOWN 37% QoQ
Bubbles and echo chambers are impermeable.
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Jan 19, 2007
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Torontario
Analyst Calls Tesla’s Quarter One of the ‘Top Debacles’ in 20 Years of Tech
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-lo ... 30157.html

“At this point the writing is on the wall that Tesla will likely have to raise over $3 billion of capital in the near term to sustain its capex and debt needs given its current profitability path, which is another black cloud over the name with an inexperienced CFO now at the helm,” Ives wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to feel robotaxis, insurance products, and other endeavors are distractions from the growing demand woes that are not being addressed which is a critical worry of ours at this juncture.”
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Jan 19, 2007
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Here's My Rant About Tesla (More to Come)
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investi ... 1-14937747

EBITDA: "makes me wonder if this entity is even -- to use Elon Musk's favorite word -- sustainable. ....there are any other car makers in the world that produced negative EBITDA In the first quarter, certainly none of the top 20 players did."

Capex and Capital:
Tesla is valued by the market as more of the former than the latter, but there is just no way to grow and create Musk's visionary dreams -- Model Y, Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo -- without injecting capital.
.....
Musk noted that there is "merit" to the idea of a Tesla capital raise at the present time. Any such raise involving equity -- whether in the form of a security convertible into equity or a straight stock sale -- would dilute current Tesla shareholders."
Deal Addict
Jan 20, 2016
2028 posts
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Houston, TX
brunes wrote: I am unsure of you realize that 2/3 of those things already exist and one has been on sale over a year ???
Exist in Musk dreams or where?
Y is on paper still, semi is delayed as well
https://electrek.co/2019/04/25/tesla-se ... -year/amp/

But that boring question, eh, let's talk million robotaxis, insurance...ir maybe Mars.
Make the face great again
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Jul 22, 2015
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Saint-Hubert, QC
kevdanga wrote: A lot of automakers had weak Q1s. Q1 is historically the weakest month for auto sales.

https://news.yahoo.com/auto-sales-march ... 00889.html

https://www.france24.com/en/20190402-us ... st-quarter

https://www.statista.com/statistics/671 ... ed-states/

Don't get me wrong, TSLA had a terrible Q1. However comparing QoQ is a cherry picked statistic.
For Tesla, QoQ is better because Model 3 started selling on "volume"... YoY doesn't reflect the reality.
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