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Suncor Stock

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Sr. Member
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Dec 2, 2017
753 posts
868 upvotes
c9gunner wrote: Somebody sold 15 shares with a 15% discount at 16:57 EST
The Nasdaq tracker usually averages the AH price and it shows $22.05 (0.5% increase)
The earnings will be released tonight before 8:00pm MST
someone with 15 shares just couldn't handle that SU not going to raise divi this time
Deal Addict
Dec 13, 2010
2506 posts
1280 upvotes
ON
Earnings are in!
May 3 (Reuters) - Canadian oil and gas producer Suncor Energy Inc on Monday reported a quarterly profit from a loss in the prior quarter, as crude prices recovered from lows hit last year due to the pandemic and cost cuts.

The company posted net earnings of C$821 million ($668.84 million), or 54 Canadian cents per share, in the first quarter ended March 31, compared with a loss of C$168 million, or 11 Canadian cent per share, a quarter earlier. ($1 = 1.2275 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Sahil Shaw and Nivedita Balu in Bengaluru)
According to my sources, estimate was 32c, that's a beat of 22c. Hopefully we are up tomorrow.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10991 posts
13540 upvotes
Expected EPS provided by @thetipster was likely in USD whereas the reporting was in CAD.

Increased FFO is a positive, net debt reduction is a positive, buying back common shares? Mmm ... the equity mkt could take this different ways. By not increasing the dividend, the credit mkt will like this ER more than the equity mkt.

Here's the full earnings PR. Not as clear if this Q was a success with the adjustments that SU made.

https://www.suncor.com/en-ca/newsroom/n ... es/2221854

Update (9:10am): Sell Side early analysis

* Adjusted FFO $1.39 "inline" with consensus at $1.37 ($1.22-1.66 range)
* Upcoming scheduled maintenance is expected to extend the downtime into Q3 (30 MBbl/d)
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Last edited by MrMom on May 4th, 2021 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
2151 posts
3218 upvotes
Numbers are significant beats from consensus: EPS 0.29c USD = 0.36c CAD vs Actual of 0.49c CAD / .54c adjusted CAD.
FFO beat again at $1.54

It won't be the "disappointment" on numbers that will drive the SP, but rather whether Institutional money is going to:
1) Take a sustained $50+WCS seriously
2) Overlook the despise of the Oil Sands and look towards a company making significant financial gains off the mats of LY

Company can't change the SP, only institutional money can do that.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Dec 21, 2005
5865 posts
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London, ON
DealRNothing wrote: Numbers are significant beats from consensus: EPS 0.29c USD = 0.36c CAD vs Actual of 0.49c CAD / .54c adjusted CAD.
FFO beat again at $1.54

It won't be the "disappointment" on numbers that will drive the SP, but rather whether Institutional money is going to:
1) Take a sustained $50+WCS seriously
2) Overlook the despise of the Oil Sands and look towards a company making significant financial gains off the mats of LY

Company can't change the SP, only institutional money can do that.
Rocket
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Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
2725 posts
2535 upvotes
EuRaFree wrote: someone with 15 shares just couldn't handle that SU not going to raise divi this time
pls paper hands leave SUNCOR. Best oil company in Canada.
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Sr. Member
Jan 9, 2017
527 posts
742 upvotes
jenneth wrote: pls paper hands leave SUNCOR. Best oil company in Canada.
I am always wondering which one is the best? SU, CNQ or IMO? I own both SU and CNQ. I don't own IMO due its low dividend yield. But looks like IMO is pretty good too.
Sr. Member
Aug 9, 2018
943 posts
989 upvotes
Strong jump to begin the day for SU, but sell offs brought it to some sharp falls and only coming back up to some modest gains now.

Interesting to see TOU outpace SU in the past week or so. Perhaps the higher volumes for SU in total results in more selling pressure bringing it one step forward-half a step back, while TOU has been fluidly rising for most of this duration
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
2151 posts
3218 upvotes
Aljcc1 wrote: Strong jump to begin the day for SU, but sell offs brought it to some sharp falls and only coming back up to some modest gains now.

Interesting to see TOU outpace SU in the past week or so. Perhaps the higher volumes for SU in total results in more selling pressure bringing it one step forward-half a step back, while TOU has been fluidly rising for most of this duration
TOU and SU are very different business models. Not sure why you would compare the 2. TOU is NG focused while SU is an integrated Oil producer. If you look at the performance of NG plays generally (CNQ included) the SP recovery (s) have been much better.

Personally, for oil plays my largest holdings are in mid-cap conventional plays with a underweight in SU. Today once again exhibits institutional money avoidance of SU due to political headwinds it simply cannot overcome. CDN Federal Gov't and US investors destroying the oil sands profile. This is not a new theme (regardless of financial performance) and why I went overweight conventional CDN plays in Fall of 2020.
Member
Jan 31, 2008
492 posts
226 upvotes
Québec
I added Suncor in USD today. They paid down $1 billion dolllar in debt in a single quarter and also managed to buyback $300 million of shares with an NCIB.

The name is underperforming the energy index. I think it will wake up soon.

People forget that Transmountain and Line 3 expansion are game changers for Canadian energy that offer security to the oilsands producers for decades to come.

The time to buy is now. Possible double within 12-18 months plus likely dividend hike.
"It is never too late to be what you might have been. "
Deal Addict
Sep 2, 2004
3138 posts
2300 upvotes
chriskanaan wrote: The name is underperforming the energy index. I think it will wake up soon.
Good points. I agree with this. Only holding a small position in SU currently but the upside is there IMO.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6154 posts
10805 upvotes
Canada
dropby wrote: I am always wondering which one is the best? SU, CNQ or IMO? I own both SU and CNQ. I don't own IMO due its low dividend yield. But looks like IMO is pretty good too.
IMO is the best on industry metrics (and leanest). I don't have a strong opinion about whether it is the best stock, though lately it has been.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6154 posts
10805 upvotes
Canada
SU poppin' today, so far.
Sr. Member
Jan 9, 2017
527 posts
742 upvotes
Blubbs wrote: IMO is the best on industry metrics (and leanest). I don't have a strong opinion about whether it is the best stock, though lately it has been.
Thanks. Putting IMO on my watch list.
Deal Addict
Dec 13, 2010
2506 posts
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ON
You guys think that Suncor NOT raising the dividend may limit the upward momentum of the stock over the next quarter?
Deal Fanatic
Jul 12, 2008
6048 posts
1945 upvotes
GTA
thetipster wrote: You guys think that Suncor NOT raising the dividend may limit the upward momentum of the stock over the next quarter?
Yes and it has, right now Suncor moves on earnings, when the sector moves and when oil moves significantly.

Anyone that can hold this for a year though should do very well. The dividend cut was quite deep as well given that others didn’t cut, they plan to limit capital spending a lot this year though.
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10991 posts
13540 upvotes
Psychologically ready to fill in the gap?
https://invst.ly/uucqk (price labels are not exact)
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Addict
Jan 5, 2018
2725 posts
2535 upvotes
I think buying at $24-25 was a long-term hold. Or at least until oil production remains right and inflation high.
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