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Top Themes or Trades for 2020 from IB's

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  • Oct 7th, 2020 7:44 am
Banned
Apr 22, 2019
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I allocate 1/3 for ETF VT, 1/3 for land, 1/3 for physical precious metals. Because no one knows the future.
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Aug 17, 2008
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JohnDorian wrote: I allocate 1/3 for ETF VT, 1/3 for land, 1/3 for physical precious metals. Because no one knows the future
Probably works perfectly for you and that's fair enough.

Does it matter that CNQ is the top idea for integrated oil by DS? Nope.

This thread isn't aimed for you and many like you on RFD. Should you look at a European index vs a US index for 2020? Then yes, the theme is here.
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Oct 14, 2015
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I've been watching the commodities index to S&P500 ratio (CRB:SPX) for years, hoping to catch a rotation out of equities into commodities. This is likely a flawed approach, as commodities don't necessarily run together, and it could be many years before we see another commodities supercycle like we had over a decade ago.

So far, I don't see any hint that the CRB:SPX ratio is ready to favour commodities.

CRB SPX ratio.png

The rectangle in the upper left looks fairly insignificant on the 15-year chart, but during those furious 18 months from Jan '07 thru June '08 we saw the following:

CRB index +55%
SPX index -10%
CAD +16%
USD -14%
WTI oil +130%
Nat Gas +113%
Gold +45%
Copper +34%
Coffee +22%

The Thomson Reuters Commodity Index (CRB) comprises 19 commodities: aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas and wheat. Source

Live link to above chart (updated end-of-day) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CR ... 1925278698
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Aug 17, 2008
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2020 Global Energy Outlook - DS
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IDK where to post this article from Bloomberg, so I decided to pump my own thread Astonished Face

Use the drop down box to pick your favourite crystal ball and go from there. Weekend reading material as it's extensive.

Almost Everything Wall Street Expects in 2020
January 2, 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... -outlooks/

For the professional prognosticators and market mavens of Wall Street and beyond, there is at least one easy prediction to make about the next 12 months: Investors are going to earn less. A lot less, probably.

“The double-digit returns of 2019 will be hard to repeat” is a phrase littering almost every investment outlook for global markets in 2020. Despite the trade war, political turmoil and more, virtually all major assets just posted a once-a-decade performance, and even uber-bulls know the chances of repeating the feat are slim.

Bloomberg News is back with its reader’s digest of research notes for the year ahead. Presented below by macro theme, asset class and institution is a compilation of more than 500 calls, bets and threats about the markets in 2020. They have been hand-picked, collated and condensed and represent the top-line takeaways from scores of the biggest financial
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
MrMom wrote:
For the professional prognosticators and market mavens of Wall Street and beyond, there is at least one easy prediction to make about the next 12 months: Investors are going to earn less. A lot less, probably.

The double-digit returns of 2019 will be hard to repeat” is a phrase littering almost every investment outlook for global markets in 2020. Despite the trade war, political turmoil and more, virtually all major assets just posted a once-a-decade performance, and even uber-bulls know the chances of repeating the feat are slim.
I’d frankly admit to having similar concerns after a fantastic 2019. But it now seems this fear is actually the common thinking hence part of the herd.... Perhaps setting up for a decent 2020 then? There was some data in here recently that said 15/18 years after a +20% year were positive...or something like that.

This year though i am tilting toward UK/EU on the resolution of Brexit. I think that with the overall uncertainty out of the way and mostly the details to work out that companies can now begin allocating capital in a post Brexit world. And this will benefit both areas. The market hates uncertainty which is what hung over those areas for a few years.

Sectorwise if things are going to ease US/China on the trade front...sectors like Industrials and Base Materials are worth a tilt.
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BoA Securities (the renamed Merrill Lynch), published the results of their widely read survey of global portfolio managers. 
The most relevant findings were (my emphasis):
“January FMS [ Fund manager Survey] bullish, but not euphoric; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator holds at 6.9, below "extreme bullish" 8.0 level … FMS investor equity overweight creeps up to 32% from 31%; historic "tops" in stocks have coincided with FMS equity allocation >50% .. global growth expectations rose, but did not surge to "boom" levels … On crowded trades: #1"long US tech & growth stocks" (50%...most extreme FMS long position since "long FAANG+BAT" in Aug'18); #2 "long IG corporate bonds" … Contrarian trades: if macro surprises to upside…buy industrials & energy, UK stocks; if US dollar depreciation too consensus…sell EM, gold; if Fed liquidity spigot to tighten sell US tech & growth

Spending a million dollars is ‘literally the opposite of being a millionaire’

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... f-being-a/

Update (22Jan20)

"B of A's US 1 list of top analyst stock picks"
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Sr. Member
Dec 25, 2015
530 posts
329 upvotes
Canada
I’m seeing a lot of long gold talk.. setting up for a disappointing trade or FOMO for 2020.

I think liquidity and growth are important themes for 2020.

People are shocked that 2019 was so strong when it was quite predictable based on the Fed changing its hands.

The fact that the market overcome the nightly sell off when Iran threatened U.S. tells me this is a mega bull market (when bad news is being discounted) maybe bubble like and 2020 is setting up to be a massive up year just like 2019. Were probably in the last state of the bull market that can run another 2-5 years IMHO.

GLTA for 2020
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Aug 17, 2008
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RBC adds two more Canadian stocks to its top 30 list of best global investment ideas
April 8 at 4:45 PM ET

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... st-global/
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
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BlackRock updated outlook
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Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
10990 posts
13540 upvotes
Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him = Never argue with an idiot, they'll only bring you down to their level & beat you with experience

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