Toronto "Average" Prices - Help me with the math

Luckyinfil wrote: ↑ no need to look at averages just look at what's happening to the SAME PROPERTY.

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ The average price is for the entire city and is the same area for all segments. The reason the average can be down when 3/4 of the segments are up is because houses cost a lot more so they have a larger impact on the average transaction of all types.

Takanome wrote: ↑ No matter how you skin the cat, you cannot get a lower average than all 4/4 segments.

If you read the original post, you will see that the "overall average" is lower than all individual segments. Mathematically this is not possible, unless there is a marketing gimmick =).

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ You're mixing up two data sets. One is for GTA and the other is for just Toronto, the full numbers are here;

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... mw1801.pdf

Average for all property types across the whole GTA is down 4.1%, it's broken down as houses down 9.1%, semi down 1.8%, towns down half a percent and condos up 14.6%.

Takanome wrote: ↑ The problem with using isolated cases is that it is prone to bias. Hence, humans have historically resorted to using larger sample sizes and basic statistical values such as means/medians etc. The problem however is that often data when provided by an entity with vested interest (such as TREB) can be manipulated and mis-represented. Sometimes, this becomes very obvious when looking at numbers even at a glance (such as my opening post).

P. S. Note that I do agree with your view and do foresee the market further correcting (more than the present 20% down) given further rate increases planned by both Feds followed by Bank of Canada.

Luckyinfil wrote: ↑ no need to look at averages just look at what's happening to the SAME PROPERTY.

Luckyinfil wrote: ↑ Except these isolated cases are statistical meaningful. Nobody walks away unless the market has dropped massively, and continues to drop in the future with no recovery.

rjg4235 wrote: ↑The average price is for the entire city and is the same area for all segments. The reason the average can be down when 3/4 of the segments are up is because houses cost a lot more so they have a larger impact on the average transaction of all types.

Takanome wrote: ↑ However, on "average" across all segments, the prices were down -4.1%. Does someone have an explanation for the math on this? Clearly it has to be some marketing gimmick. i.e. the data for one segment is for a particular area, whereas the numbers for another segment are for another area (or different timeline, I dunno). If anyone did the math, I would appreciate an answer.

BryanBreguet wrote: ↑ The average can't be more negative than the only negative segment. This is what OP is referring too. At worst the average should get close to -3.9, but not below. It's mathematically impossible.

burnt69 wrote: ↑ Even within those categories, you need to be very careful. A lot of brand new units, particularly in the condo sector, are being delivered and re-sold "brand new". While detached, for example, there has been very little detached actually built in Toronto proper simply because of land availability (for obvious reasons).

So an individual condo unit, for instance, may very well have fallen YoY, but the 'average' is up merely because a disproportionate chunk of the transactions were in relatively recent builds which make up a disproportionate chunk of the transactional volume.

This is why the TREB resisting the release of comprehensive data is an absolute travesty and seems to hiding significant price stagnation since the 2013 apex.

Takanome wrote: ↑ The problem with using isolated cases is that it is prone to bias. Hence, humans have historically resorted to using larger sample sizes and basic statistical values such as means/medians etc. The problem however is that often data when provided by an entity with vested interest (such as TREB) can be manipulated and mis-represented. Sometimes, this becomes very obvious when looking at numbers even at a glance (such as my opening post).

Note that I agree with your view and see further correction (more than 20%) occurring due to rising rates by the Feds and Bank of Canada.

Takanome wrote: ↑ I see, that’s a good point. I have kept hearing that condo prices keep soaring, but never quite tied it to the “mix” of sales I.e. more newer units being sold and older units potentially still taking a beating as the other sectors. It makes sense if you think about it. Thanks for the insight.

dantey wrote: ↑ I actually took a deeper look into this condo segment a few days ago and found this. I was expecting condos to have taken an increased market share.
As for the condo prices, re-sales units have also increased. It's probably the new units setting a price floor that pulled up the re-sale ones.

"Interesting thing to note: Comparing Jan 2017 vs Jan 2018. You would think the condo segment to be capturing an increasing segment of the market.
But the reality is that the sales share % did not increase significantly. Prices have increased by double digits, but not sales %.

Sales (Jan 2017 -> Jan 2018)
(Detached) 43.6% -> 41.3%
(Semi) 8.2% -> 9.1%
(Town) 8.1% -> 8.9%
(Condo Town) 6.9% -> 7.9%
(Condo Apt) 31.5% -> 31.7%

Sources
http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... mw1701.pdf
http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/mar ... mw1801.pdf "

rjg4235 wrote: ↑ Not sure if I am misunderstanding you but I think this data from TREB is for resale only, new sales wouldn't impact these averages.