Real Estate

Toronto condo market

[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto

Toronto condo market

Okay, let's try and keep it civil. Sales are definitely on fire, prices maybe? Let's see as January plays out.

Image

Update for Jan1-15

Last edited by mazerbeaner on Jan 16th, 2021 8:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
3985 replies
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
Downtown sales up 100% YoY with less business days....
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2010
1112 posts
1302 upvotes
Toronto
I honestly hate that Scott never actually gives any of the numbers he uses to calculate things. I see like 90 sales on House Sigma, and last year January had 900 sales.
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
DaMan12 wrote: I honestly hate that Scott never actually gives any of the numbers he uses to calculate things. I see like 90 sales on House Sigma, and last year January had 900 sales.
Housesigma is slow, I check Scott's stats once in awhile when I am curious where the market is headed. He hasn't been wrong before. His Dec1-15 post was the first indication I had of things going up and sales ended the month up 76%
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2010
1112 posts
1302 upvotes
Toronto
mazerbeaner wrote: Housesigma is slow, I check Scott's stats once in awhile when I am curious where the market is headed. He hasn't been wrong before. His Dec1-15 post was the first indication I had of things going up and sales ended the month up 76%
I realize there is a bit of lag but if he's saying sales are up 50% YoY that means he's seeing a January sales pace of 1350 sales (or ~ 330 sales per week). I highly doubt House Sigma is missing 240 sales. They have access to the same MLS data Scott does.

Or what I think the more likely outcome, is last year the first week of January had very low sales (maybe like 60-70), and now this year we have 100+ sales in the first week? So he's extrapolating that way? If he didn't hide his numbers to promote his bias I would appreciate his posts much more.
Last edited by DaMan12 on Jan 11th, 2021 2:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Sr. Member
Jan 28, 2017
786 posts
821 upvotes
Face With Tears Of Joy
I knew it'd either be mazer or condoman creating this new thread
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
bear20 wrote: Face With Tears Of Joy
I knew it'd either be mazer or condoman creating this new thread
I am very predictable
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
DaMan12 wrote: I realize there is a bit of lag but if he's saying sales are up 50% YoY that means he's seeing a January sales pace of 1350 sales (or ~ 330 sales per week). I highly doubt House Sigma is missing 240 sales. They have access to the same MLS data Scott does.

Or what I think the more likely outcome, is last year the first week of January had very low sales (maybe like 60-70), and now this year we have 100+ sales in the first week? So he's extrapolating that way? If he didn't hide his numbers to promote his bias I would appreciate his posts much more.
Last Jan 1-10 had 7 business days (a weekend and a holiday) whereas this year there were only 5 business days (2 weekends and a holiday). These YoY stats are nuts and confirm what a bunch of other realtors like Oasis were already saying. Can't get data like this elsewhere because it isn't broken down that well.
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2010
1112 posts
1302 upvotes
Toronto
I just don't understand how condos.ca and HouseSigma sales totals are consistently below TREB sales totals. Like where are these extra sales and how come people can't see them?

As someone who loves math, this discrepancy constantly baffles me.
Last edited by DaMan12 on Jan 11th, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
DaMan12 wrote: I just don't understand how condos.ca and HouseSigma sales totals are consistently like 20-40% below TREB sales totals. Like where are these extra sales and how come people can't see them?

As someone who loves math, this discrepancy constantly baffles me.
I don't know how they get their data but if you look at the bottom chart on Zolo it says last updated January 2nd, the sales graph says the 8th but also shows sales up 86%
Member
Oct 4, 2012
270 posts
270 upvotes
Amherstview
Oh please god let the bears be right and there be a flood of listings of biblical portions soon. I don't want to start bidding on condos without seeing them but I think I'm at that point if the right condo comes up!
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2010
1112 posts
1302 upvotes
Toronto
Yea, Zolo is a 30 day average though. And now I seem to all of a sudden be skeptical of all these 3rd party sites if the data is constantly incomplete.
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
DaMan12 wrote: Yea, Zolo is a 30 day average though. And now I seem to all of a sudden be skeptical of all these 3rd party sites if the data is constantly incomplete.
Yea it still works it's just slower to pick up a trend. Raw data straight for a specific time period will be more up to date.
Member
Aug 13, 2020
328 posts
401 upvotes
There are so many people in the other thread asking for opinion on condos - which was not the case 2 months back. Let us see if this trend holds.
[OP]
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10176 posts
12596 upvotes
Toronto
I was nervous for a second because I thought maybe sales were really low in 2020 as I recall it had lower MOI than usual but nope, condo sales in 2020 were actually high;

Jan 2020 - 918
Jan 2019 - 840
Jan 2018 - 899

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