Real Estate

Toronto prices are going back up

  • Last Updated:
  • Feb 26th, 2018 4:22 pm
238 replies
Banned
Oct 12, 2017
239 posts
179 upvotes
The Teranet-National Bank composite house price index is controlled by realtors and is not accurate.
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10418 posts
12950 upvotes
Toronto
serious8 wrote: The Teranet-National Bank composite house price index is controlled by realtors and is not accurate.
Doesn't it use the land registry? You're thinking of the TREB report benchmark price which is different.
Banned
Aug 28, 2017
301 posts
366 upvotes
You called what we just experienced a decrease?

All detached homes in my area have been and still remain over $1m (for 2-3 years now)..... the difference between now and peak is $1.1m vs maybe $1.3m....whoooop deeee frikeeennnn doooooooo
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10418 posts
12950 upvotes
Toronto
Rocko24 wrote: You called what we just experienced a decrease?

All detached homes in my area have been and still remain over $1m (for 2-3 years now)..... the difference between now and peak is $1.1m vs maybe $1.3m....whoooop deeee frikeeennnn doooooooo
The funny thing is that the 'peak' of Spring 2017 was what 2-3 months? With 2500 houses selling in the city of Toronto which has over 1 million households. We don't even know how many of those 2500 actually closed either. Now that average sale price is the benchmark lol, anything else is 'cheap'.
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 23, 2010
1897 posts
929 upvotes
Moon
Super_Chicken wrote: Lol 0.2%. Damn, I guess I'm priced out forever Crying Face
Point is that the downward trend has hit a buy wall. I expect a rush of buying soon as people speculate that we have reached the bottom. Weak hands selling right now will get burned. All the smart owners are HODLing
Deal Addict
Oct 21, 2014
1564 posts
1984 upvotes
Burlington, ON
Applesmack wrote: Point is that the downward trend has hit a buy wall. I expect a rush of buying soon as people speculate that we have reached the bottom. Weak hands selling right now will get burned. All the smart owners are HODLing
That and spring buying season. It's good news to see the market picking itself up.
Jr. Member
Oct 27, 2017
129 posts
120 upvotes
After reading nothing but bears praying for a crash and practically convincing people it will happen this year, i really hope prices jump even higher so i can see and enjoy their reaction.
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2016
1903 posts
929 upvotes
Tetranet index is more accurate than average price, but that benchmark seems to suffer seasonal variation. YOY numbers are probably an accurate gauge of market market, but MOM changes seem to be all over the place, at least at the 3% or lower level. It showed Ottawa having a small dip in the past few months, when everyone is reporting rather hot market in the Ottawa thread.

On a year to year basis, Tetranet seems to correctly indicate Ottawa market going up a few percent, rather than staying flat like the past few years. So it is a useful index. Just not up to the minute.
Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
11257 posts
9748 upvotes
Let’s go real estate *clap clap clap clap clap*.
Member
May 2, 2017
270 posts
408 upvotes
But the article says...

"But National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault warned that it was premature to conclude that home prices in Canada's largest city have "turned the corner."

"This firming of home prices in Toronto might reflect a rush to buy with pre-approved mortgages granted before more stringent rules on qualification for uninsured mortgages were applied starting Jan. 1," he said.

Also, this index is useless to analyze for changes in recent trends as it lags several months behind. It also only looks at houses that have been sold twice as indicated on their website
This data is months old since they collect data once the transaction is finalized and registered with the land registry.

"The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology"

source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2018/02/toro ... n-january/
[OP]
Deal Addict
Dec 23, 2010
1897 posts
929 upvotes
Moon
ud8077 wrote: But the article says...

"But National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault warned that it was premature to conclude that home prices in Canada's largest city have "turned the corner."

"This firming of home prices in Toronto might reflect a rush to buy with pre-approved mortgages granted before more stringent rules on qualification for uninsured mortgages were applied starting Jan. 1," he said.

Also, this index is useless to analyze for changes in recent trends as it lags several months behind. It also only looks at houses that have been sold twice as indicated on their website
This data is months old since they collect data once the transaction is finalized and registered with the land registry.

"The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology"

source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2018/02/toro ... n-january/
Only reason house prices actually fell was psychological. Anyone thinking differently hasn't been paying attention. The moment buyers feel reassured then Team Rocket will be blasting off again
Jr. Member
Oct 27, 2017
129 posts
120 upvotes
jmb2027 wrote: What about York Region?
Ive been observing Vaughan and havent seen a change in price/listings tbh. The majority of houses for sale have been in the market for a couple of months with reduced prices. Hopefully when all these desperate sellers finally sell, we'll get a better idea of what the new prices are going for
Deal Fanatic
Dec 5, 2009
5691 posts
3447 upvotes
Applesmack wrote: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada- ... -1.4534978

Up 0.2% which means the decrease is officially over. Looks like confidence is almost entirely restored and prices going to the moon from here
Love the hyperbole. Nothing is “officially over”. There could be a seasonal bump relative to winter but the YoY figures will be very ugly. So tell that to the people who are done 20%. I personally don’t expect to see any real stabilization until the fall , but that’s just my crystal ball prediction.
Sr. Member
Jun 7, 2017
980 posts
733 upvotes
BC
fdl wrote: Love the hyperbole. Nothing is “officially over”. There could be a seasonal bump relative to winter but the YoY figures will be very ugly. So tell that to the people who are done 20%. I personally don’t expect to see any real stabilization until the fall , but that’s just my crystal ball prediction.
I agree with you, your post has zero value.
Banned
Oct 12, 2017
239 posts
179 upvotes
If you don't know how to calculate the index, then you don't know what you're talking about.

That's why I said the index is controlled by Realtors and does not reflect what the market is really going through. The fact that they had to resort to making up numbers this month for the news means real estate truly is pooched.
Sr. Member
Jun 19, 2017
570 posts
840 upvotes
Furcorn wrote: I agree with you, your post has zero value.
Weak.

On average there is way less capital available to buy real estate due to Rising rates, regulation, etc. Prices cannot keep going up short of loosening of regulation or fiscal policy. The price physics just don't work. Price declines will slowly start eating away at owners equity, which will trigger at best a slow and steady negative feedback loop.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Sep 8, 2007
9037 posts
10353 upvotes
Way Out of GTA
Qrewpt wrote: Weak.

On average there is way less capital available to buy real estate due to Rising rates, regulation, etc. Prices cannot keep going up short of loosening of regulation or fiscal policy. The price physics just don't work. Price declines will slowly start eating away at owners equity, which will trigger at best a slow and steady negative feedback loop.
The pumpers on here remind of Bitcoin pumpers...so because bitcoin is only down 50% from the top but still up from 3 months ago or the lows a week ago...it's all....too the moon!
Deal Addict
Jan 17, 2006
2189 posts
2299 upvotes
Toronto
fdl wrote: So tell that to the people who are done 20%. I personally don’t expect to see any real stabilization until the fall , but that’s just my crystal ball prediction.
There are not many to tell, fraction of percent may be who bought in march of last year, but they likely sold their previous house for more as well.
Some other walked away from purchase. Majority are 50% up in last 3 years though, so throw away your ball, no value in it. It is over for bears, I agree.

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