Real Estate

TRREB April 2020 report

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  • May 5th, 2020 5:15 pm
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Sr. Member
Dec 19, 2010
871 posts
397 upvotes

TRREB April 2020 report

http://trreb.ca/files/news_releases/new ... h_0420.pdf

http://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/mark ... mw2004.pdf

Home Sales and Listings
• Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 2,975 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System. This result was down by 67 per cent compared to April 2019. Weekday sales remained within a relatively steady range during the month, averaging 130 per day.
• New listings amounted to 6,174 in April 2020 – down on a year-over-year basis by a similar rate compared to sales (-64.1 per cent).

Home Prices
• The average selling price for April 2020 transactions was $821,392 – up by 0.1 per cent compared to the average price of $820,373 reported for April 2019. The semi-detached and townhouse market segments experienced annual average price growth above the rate of inflation. The condominium apartment and detached segments experienced year-over-year price declines on average.
• The trend for the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, which had been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of 2019 flattened in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Benchmark was up by 10 per cent.
• The MLS® HPI indices represent prices for typical homes with consistent attributes from one period to the next. The fact that the MLS® HPI was up year-over-year by a greater rate than the average selling price suggests that the share of higher end deals completed in April 2020 versus April 2019 was down.
31 replies
Jr. Member
Aug 5, 2018
137 posts
153 upvotes
Last table of the News Release showing the seasonally adjusted results is interesting. CREA it itself says removing seasonal variations allows for a more meaningful analysis of monthly change.
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
11150 posts
14077 upvotes
Toronto
New listings down 64% and sales down 67%, seems pretty proportional and expected with everything being locked down. All the provinces are starting to open up this month too. Summer and fall will be very interesting to see.
Deal Addict
Dec 6, 2006
2560 posts
967 upvotes
This is understandable since who wants to sell currently unless you really need to. Let's wait 6 months to see how the market adjusts.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
878 posts
1206 upvotes
In conclusion:

Prices are back down to April 2019.
Prices have gone down ~13% since peak prices in Feb 2020.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 8, 2010
1419 posts
1112 upvotes
Ontario
Newuserid wrote: In conclusion:

Prices are back down to April 2019.
Prices have gone down ~13% since peak prices in Feb 2020.
Average prices, you need to specify. It is not applicable for any property.

HPI, which tracks prices for similar properties, is still 10% higher then last year, which means that specific property didn't went down, but probably little up. The difference is from sales mix
HPI currently flatten means that prices took a hit in last couple months (HPI is looking at last 6 months, it is a lagging indicator). How much, to be seen in at least 4 months from now.
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
16030 posts
12785 upvotes
Tarrana & The Ri…
Newuserid wrote: In conclusion:

Prices are back down to April 2019.
Prices have gone down ~13% since peak prices in Feb 2020.
Skewing the numbers I see.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
878 posts
1206 upvotes
Isostar wrote: Average prices, you need to specify. It is not applicable for any property.

HPI, which tracks prices for similar properties, is still 10% higher then last year, which means that specific property didn't went down, but probably little up. The difference is from sales mix
HPI currently flatten means that prices took a hit in last couple months (HPI is looking at last 6 months, it is a lagging indicator). How much, to be seen in at least 4 months from now.
What do you mean by specific properties? What is the difference between HPI and the stats provided by TREB? Based on TREB stats, the numbers I summarized were the average prices for all residential real estate in the GTA.
Jr. Member
Aug 5, 2018
137 posts
153 upvotes
Newuserid wrote: In conclusion:

Prices are back down to April 2019.
Prices have gone down ~13% since peak prices in Feb 2020.
Come on let's be fair. Seasonally adjusted the average price is down 11.8%.

As for the "Average Price" debate it is a 2-way street. It can't only be the standard for upward price movements. RE pushes this BS measure (skewed or not at times) and therefore it's what we compare against.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 8, 2010
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Ontario
Newuserid wrote: What do you mean by specific properties? What is the difference between HPI and the stats provided by TREB? Based on TREB stats, the numbers I summarized were the average prices for all residential real estate in the GTA.
HPI is also a TREB stat.... It compares apple with apple.
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
878 posts
1206 upvotes
Staffah wrote: Come on let's be fair. Seasonally adjusted the average price is down 11.8%.

As for the "Average Price" debate it is a 2-way street. It can't only be the standard for upward price movements. RE pushes this BS measure (skewed or not at times) and therefore it's what we compare against.
Okay, your right. I see now that its seasonally adjusted. So the price decline is probably not as severe
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
878 posts
1206 upvotes
Isostar wrote: HPI is also a TREB stat.... It compares apple with apple.
Do you have a source?
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2018
627 posts
1122 upvotes
Newuserid wrote: Thanks! But it looks like the stats for April 2020 is not out yet
Yes, that usually follows a day after, just like the market charts. However, they already mentioned in their report that overall HPI remained at around 10% YoY
Sr. Member
Jan 5, 2020
878 posts
1206 upvotes
JanZ95915 wrote: Yes, that usually follows a day after, just like the market charts. However, they already mentioned in their report that overall HPI remained at around 10% YoY
Ohh I see. I stand correctly. I guess the prices haven't decline as severely
Deal Fanatic
Jul 3, 2011
6407 posts
3586 upvotes
Thornhill
As I said here just a few days ago:
Well, I imagine this months report synopsis is going to be interesting for what it won't say.
--From the data I've collected, Toronto, Most of Durham and Vaughan have erased the highs (sale price averages) of 2019 in all property types.
--Toronto East seemed to have fared far better than the central and west areas - that's where people are finding value and it has been the area to presented the best value pricing opportunities for regentrification since 2017.
--All other areas are all off but have more or less only given up the gains of earlier this year.
--York region has been holding ground surprisingly well even though months of inventory has increased having experienced the highest increases.
--Of all property types, the average sale price for freehold Townhouses with the exception of Toronto west and central and Oshawa, declined the least by under 5%. The other three declined by double digits with Toronto central and west hovering close to -20%.
T--oronto's condo sales is taking a beating, barely one-third March's sales while inventory has climbed from less than one month to more than 3. Central prices are down by more than 15% from February's high.
coronavirus-impact-real-estate-2351524/246/#p32487336
So let's get past the semantics and get to the heart of the matter. That the sales and new listings down YoY by 67% and 64.1% respectively means nothing.

As the above is exactly what played out, but now the official numbers tell the better story:

In actuality the YoY absorption rate plunged from 50% to 28% . Put another way, months of inventory ratio increased from 2:1 to 3.5:1

The average price of all property types erased all gains in 2019 and 2020 i.e, it is back to April 2019's values.

Currently at $821,392, the average price high in 2019 was $851,957 in October. It rose to $910,273 in February. Effectively declining by 9% which erased the 3.5% high of 2019 and eradicated the 6% gain in 2020.

YoY:
Durham and Toronto were the only 2 major municipalities to record losses in the condo apartment sector declining by 11% and 4% respectively, where, the 10% increase in prices of Toronto east masked the 9% decline in Toronto central - the bellweather of the condo market. This is not good for mid to low range priced condo sellers going forward.

Similarly, on the detached front, Toronto and Durham were the only losers of the municipalites with Toronto performing the worst. Here too the 4.6% gain in Toronto East lifted the 9% and 5% price slash to Central and West.

Relative to sales totals, high end properties are steady at the same ratio of sales, which means the larger price declines are not surprisingly, down the ladder.

It's important that this holds up.
Jr. Member
Sep 13, 2007
148 posts
184 upvotes
toronto
licenced wrote: As I said here just a few days ago:


So let's get past the semantics and get to the heart of the matter. That the sales and new listings down YoY by 67% and 64.1% respectively means nothing.

As the above is exactly what played out, but now the official numbers tell the better story:

In actuality the YoY absorption rate plunged from 50% to 28% . Put another way, months of inventory ratio increased from 2:1 to 3.5:1

The average price of all property types erased all gains in 2019 and 2020 i.e, it is back to April 2019's values.

Currently at $821,392, the average price high in 2019 was $851,957 in October. It rose to $910,273 in February. Effectively declining by 9% which erased the 3.5% high of 2019 and eradicated the 6% gain in 2020.

YoY:
Durham and Toronto were the only 2 major municipalities to record losses in the condo apartment sector declining by 11% and 4% respectively, where, the 10% increase in prices of Toronto east masked the 9% decline in Toronto central - the bellweather of the condo market. This is not good for mid to low range priced condo sellers going forward.

Similarly, on the detached front, Toronto and Durham were the only losers of the municipalites with Toronto performing the worst. Here too the 4.6% gain in Toronto East lifted the 9% and 5% price slash to Central and West.

Relative to sales totals, high end properties are steady at the same ratio of sales, which means the larger price declines are not surprisingly, down the ladder.

It's important that this holds up.
Good post. Curious, why is TO east end holding better than the rest of it, any thoughts?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 8, 2010
1419 posts
1112 upvotes
Ontario
als98 wrote: Good post. Curious, why is TO east end holding better than the rest of it, any thoughts?
Cheaper properties, usually entry point for first time buyers...

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