I am pretty sure that macro factors cannot be predicted in the medium to long term - too many variables at play here, not unlike long range weather forecasts.smartie wrote: ↑ @Stryker , @DealRNothing and everyone, in your model, how do you incorporate macro factors?
Say I have a model to calculate stock fair value, I enter earnings, cash flow, dividends growth......, but where I should input GDP,Unemployment rate,CPI,PMI... those macro to adjust fair value that I got from FA analysis?
Thanks
Value Investing Thread
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Nvidia Too Expensive? Five Reasonably Priced Tech Stocks
Posted: May 30, 2023
By John Dorfman
https://dorfmanvalue.com/nvidia-too-exp ... ch-stocks/
Posted: May 30, 2023
By John Dorfman
https://dorfmanvalue.com/nvidia-too-exp ... ch-stocks/
- itemsale2003
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Same was said about Apple and Amazon at one point. Valuation multiples don't mean anything if the company has enough momentum. Looks like all fundamentals required for stock price appreciation are in place and NVDIA is on the run and unless something fundamentally goes wrong.Stryker wrote: ↑ Nvidia Too Expensive? Five Reasonably Priced Tech Stocks
Posted: May 30, 2023
By John Dorfman
https://dorfmanvalue.com/nvidia-too-exp ... ch-stocks/
- Stryker
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I thought much the same in the late 1990's that I could pay any price when I owned shares in Nortel, JDS Uniphase, and Research In Motion.itemsale2003 wrote: ↑ Same was said about Apple and Amazon at one point. Valuation multiples don't mean anything if the company has enough momentum. Looks like all fundamentals required for stock price appreciation are in place and NVDIA is on the run and unless something fundamentally goes wrong.
If you want American companies, just look at the long term charts of Cisco and Intel. Neither have again reached their peaks of 2000.
Investors found out much the same with the go-go stocks of the late 60's and then again with the nifty fifty in the early 70's but I let emotions get in the way and conveniently forgot the past.
Sometimes it can actually pay to buy value, even in technology. I remember value investor Norm Rothery saying he bought Microsoft with a P/E of 12 back in 2012, and Buffett bought his first shares in Apple in 2016 when Morningstar says the average P/E was about 14 that year.
Now when a sector gets hot, I go back to what I've learned in the books of Benjamin Graham and David Dreman.
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