Vancouver housing bubble?

Beeg wrote: ↑For how many years have people been calling for a crash?

People were calling for a crash in HK and Shanghai for the past decade...never happened.

With so much investment capital coming from Greater China, and prices in Vancouver (and especially the GTA) being cheap in comparison, why do you suspect a crash?

Unless the current Immigration Minister decides to stop all emigration to Canada and stop all the investment dollars coming in.

adamtheman wrote: ↑ what would that mean for canadians born here, unable to ever afford housing?

Also, prices in Vancouver are far higher than Toronto. Not sure where you got that figure from. Vancouver has the highest prices in Canada.

Beeg wrote: ↑It means we are in an era of globalization and Canadians should work hard, smarter and be more entrepreneurial. And appreciate that the world wants to invest here and we all get richer.

Beeg wrote: ↑Yes, for the time being. Many Asian investors like Vancouver simply because of the climate and the fact it's a much easier flight.

However, the Greater Toronto Area is now very hot. The GTA has good health care, great shopping, a strong economy, Ontario has lots of good universities, the GTA is generally peaceful and the people are open to newcomers. And the prices are much lower than Vancouver.

If you have invested in the GTA over the past few years, you are a happy investor.

When the NDP gain power in BC in 2 years, your predictions might come true for BC. Investors dislike socialists.

gei wrote: ↑Another stupid "real estate crash" thread?

gei wrote:lol... and here folks, is the type of person who keep calling for a "housing market collapse" Yes I am deeply concerned that my condo will lose nearly half of it's value "because of the high number of condos on the market".

gei wrote:lol @ all the people thinking this very minor change will "collapse the housing market".

Engi-Nir wrote: ↑The good news is, every USA company that closes in canada, moves back to states...given the trend, hopefully, Canada becomes a third world country soon enough. No Mr American, I need that salary cause everything in Canada is expensive. Sorry, Mr Canada, it is cheaper in states, cause our cost of living is reality so we don't need to pay labours that high (incl. police officers,teachers, factory works, fast food workers, etc). Hence, let the prices keep going up, it is all good

Mark77 wrote: ↑Only a 50% drop? You're being generous!

adamtheman wrote: ↑If we drop more than 50%, I can adjust the chart...

Actually, a true 50% drop is unlikely, but with inflation factored in, it becomes more realistic. What we need to remember is that, even if real estate only drops around 35% over the next 5 years, we also need to factor in the lost money due to inflation, at 2-3% per year and compounded.

Mark77 wrote: ↑Yeah we better hope our gold/silver industries take off,

Beeg wrote: ↑Or it might not matter as Canada becomes a nice suburb for Asian families who want a break from where real commerce and industry is.

Mark77 wrote: ↑Rents would be rising if that were the case (ie: Asians flocking to Canada to be here temporarily), and that's definitely not happening.

Asian housing collapses are underway, for largely the same reasons as we're going to see in Canada -- massive overcapacity, excess leverage and speculation, and very poor domestic real economies

Beeg wrote: ↑Who said temporarily? Asian culture isn't a rental culture, it's a purchase culture.

Mark77 wrote: ↑So? If Asians are purchasing, then other folks who aren't purchasing those properties, by definition, have to rent. Rents describe the size of the overall property base relative to overall demand, whether that be from renters, or from owners.

By definition, over the long term, the price of a property is merely the net present value, discounted at a certain rate, of all of the future rents. Whether someone chooses to capitalize that all into an up-front ownership decision, or choses to pay rent as they go, is immaterial.

Beeg wrote: ↑Mark77,

You are very strongly opinionated, often with little to back you up. I won't argue with you here. Go spend some time in Greater China and get back to us in a few years.

Mark77 wrote: ↑
Good thing these pie-in-the-sky claims of "Asians" coming to save hyper-leveraged Canadian homeowners are largely exxagerated and fairly easy to disprove.