Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

  • Last Updated:
  • Oct 27th, 2020 6:49 am
Tags:
None
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3217 upvotes
Calgary
Vitalogy80 wrote: Did Mark create another account?
I only have one account. Only will ever have one account. Do you really think Mark77 has a monopoly on being profoundly concerned about the sustainability of relative RE prices in Canada?
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Sr. Member
May 26, 2010
575 posts
138 upvotes
Well the year end figures have been released, and it finished off what has to be seen as a decent rebound year, considering the abysmal second half of 2012. Sales were the third lowest in the last decade - although were 14% up on the previous year. The MLS HPI was also up across all property types by 2.1%

[QUOTE]The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2013 reached 28,524, a 14 per cent increase from the 25,032 sales recorded in 2012, and an 11.9 per cent decrease from the 32,390 residential sales in 2011. “Home sales quietly improved last year compared to 2012, although the volume of activity didn’t
compare to some of the record-breaking years we experienced over the last decade,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president said.

Last year’s home sale total ranks as the third lowest annual total for the region in the last ten years, according to the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®).

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver declined 6.2 per cent in 2013 to 54,742 compared to the 58,379 properties listed in 2012. Looking back further, last year’s total represents an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 59,539 residential properties listed for sale in 2011. Last year’s listing count is on par with the 10 year average.[/QUOTE]

Nothing for the bears to get excited about, and not a strong sign that the boom level of transactions are picking up again again.

The market looks in a pretty strong condition when looking at the level of unaffordability in my opinion - the Lower Mainland's ability to survive the second half of last year where national and regional opinion was that the mortgage rule changes could be the catalyst for a sharper decline will probably add credence to current housing prices.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Feb 19, 2010
6237 posts
2967 upvotes
Mark77 wrote: I only have one account. Only will ever have one account. Do you really think Mark77 has a monopoly on being profoundly concerned about the sustainability of relative RE prices in Canada?

You may have only one account NOW. But your previous account (pitz) was permanently banned. You know it and so does everybody else now.

You maybe should have taken an opportunity, with the new year, to resolve to come clean.
Deal Addict
Aug 12, 2004
4447 posts
2099 upvotes
Calgary
mattieuk wrote: Well the year end figures have been released, and it finished off what has to be seen as a decent rebound year, considering the abysmal second half of 2012. Sales were the third lowest in the last decade - although were 14% up on the previous year. The MLS HPI was also up across all property types by 2.1%



Nothing for the bears to get excited about, and not a strong sign that the boom level of transactions are picking up again again.

The market looks in a pretty strong condition when looking at the level of unaffordability in my opinion - the Lower Mainland's ability to survive the second half of last year where national and regional opinion was that the mortgage rule changes could be the catalyst for a sharper decline will probably add credence to current housing prices.
If you are counting the year as a whole, those numbers are not out of the norm, considering that early 2013 the doomers and gloomers were out in full force due to low sales still impacted by July 2012's tightened mortgage rules. The fact that 2013 picked up so well is a clear sign of how well the market picked up in the past 6 months compared to the first few months where the OP along with the usual suspects were so giddy.

Case and point
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,953 in December 2013, an increase of
71 per cent from the 1,142 sales recorded in December 2012
and a 15.9 per cent decline
compared to November 2013 when 2,321 home sales occurred.
Yes that's right, a 71% sales increase YOY.
December sales were 8.1 per cent above the 10-year December sales average of 1,807
Those are truly crazy numbers. Well above even the 10-year average.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jun 28, 2007
3862 posts
1025 upvotes
The funniest ( or lamest) thing about this thread is how the OP abandoned it the minute he realized how silly his daily updates in the " road to a 50% crash" looked. He's probably running around Greater Vancouver today looking to buy property. What a joke.
Sr. Member
May 26, 2010
575 posts
138 upvotes
Firebot wrote: If you are counting the year as a whole, those numbers are not out of the norm, considering that early 2013 the doomers and gloomers were out in full force due to low sales still impacted by July 2012's tightened mortgage rules. The fact that 2013 picked up so well is a clear sign of how well the market picked up in the past 6 months compared to the first few months where the OP along with the usual suspects were so giddy.

Case and point

Yes that's right, a 71% sales increase YOY.

Those are truly crazy numbers. Well above even the 10-year average.
It certainly was a strong (although I'm not sure I'd call an 8% over average year 'crazy' though) December (even when comparing against the 10 year average rather than just a terrible December 2012). I tend not to get too giddy about individual monthly results (especially in the traditional slow season for real estate) - but I do think that the overall picture of the year shows a large change in momentum from this time last year.

I think the negative sentiments regarding the market were pretty well justified, all biases aside. The sales volume has been terribly hit by the governmental changes, and it was probably the most large scale catalyst for a correction since the global financial crisis. Even in the face of the negativity seen in a lot of portions of the local and national media, the market supported the price points of property in the area. The fact that the market came through it's first recent battle with mainstream adversity this year, as gomyone stated in another thread has got to be a dampener on the hopes of those who are hoping for a material correction in the market.

Hopefully those who are awaiting a more affordable market are using the time to stockpile cash/assets in case those predictions are wrong.
Newbie
Jan 31, 2013
3 posts
Vancouver
according to this stats canada chart, vancouver is still recovering from 2009 price drop...
makes it sound like that if i bought a new house in 2008, i'm still under water as of today?

does anyone have experience with this chart?
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableau ... 12-eng.htm
another table from stats can with more recent data
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a05?se ... rn=3270046
Sr. Member
May 26, 2010
575 posts
138 upvotes
samychl wrote: according to this stats canada chart, vancouver is still recovering from 2009 price drop...
makes it sound like that if i bought a new house in 2008, i'm still under water as of today?

does anyone have experience with this chart?
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableau ... 12-eng.htm
another table from stats can with more recent data
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a05?se ... rn=3270046
Don't quote me on this, but I believe this only applies for new build housing, and is not particularly useful in giving an accurate overview of the market. Obviously new build housing would be a minority of most real estate markets.
Newbie
Jan 31, 2013
3 posts
Vancouver
mattieuk wrote: Don't quote me on this, but I believe this only applies for new build housing, and is not particularly useful in giving an accurate overview of the market. Obviously new build housing would be a minority of most real estate markets.
So it would be a fact that if I bought a NEW house in Vancouver, I lost money on my investment. (Since a new one at today's prices cost less.)

I guess this is the lesson, DO NOT BUY NEW.
Sr. Member
May 26, 2010
575 posts
138 upvotes
samychl wrote: So it would be a fact that if I bought a NEW house in Vancouver, I lost money on my investment. (Since a new one at today's prices cost less.)

I guess this is the lesson, DO NOT BUY NEW.
I would presume that the new housing statss that you posted would include forms of housing such as condos and townhouses, which have performed quite differently to SFH in the Vancouver area. I would consider the source you quoted as quite limited, as it fails to provide any great deal of specificity with regards to what the numbers are representing.

On a non-statistical front I would almost always recommend against buying a brand new condo, and look at 3-4 year old structures which have already gone through the "teething stage".
Sr. Member
Nov 18, 2010
616 posts
260 upvotes
Vancouver
Just found this thread ... lol @ bubble
Same people that predicted crash back in the mid 90s are still predicting crash today.

Everyone told me not to buy back in 1997.
Bought 3 lvl brand new townhouse in East Van in 97 for $200K
Sold townhouse in 2006 for $400K
Bought house near Oakridge area for $550K
My parents freaked out telling not to buy cuz market will crash soon in 2006.
My neighbors recently sold similar house for over 1M

If I didn't buy anything back in 1997 and wait for crash ... I would be screwed.
These so call experts predicting bubble burst are jokers.

LOL at crash / bubble burst ...
I do feel bad for people that kept waiting and didn't buy.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jan 19, 2005
4207 posts
1098 upvotes
^ RE has never crashed and never will. Your house should be worth $3M before the decade is over. In fact, you should buy another one and collect rent while it appreciates. cha-ching.
signature closed for renovation
Sr. Member
Nov 18, 2010
616 posts
260 upvotes
Vancouver
recordman wrote: ^ RE has never crashed and never will. Your house should be worth $3M before the decade is over. In fact, you should buy another one and collect rent while it appreciates. cha-ching.
Must be a renter and waiting for crash since the mid 90s.
Even if market does crash 20%, 30%, 40% ... Still be ahead, nothing to worry about.
What are the chances of that happening in high demand areas in Vancouver. Slim to none.
Maybe Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack and further east.
Newbie
Jan 31, 2013
3 posts
Vancouver
mattieuk wrote: I would presume that the new housing statss that you posted would include forms of housing such as condos and townhouses, which have performed quite differently to SFH in the Vancouver area. I would consider the source you quoted as quite limited, as it fails to provide any great deal of specificity with regards to what the numbers are representing.

On a non-statistical front I would almost always recommend against buying a brand new condo, and look at 3-4 year old structures which have already gone through the "teething stage".
thanks! do not buy new condos!
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
9368 posts
8206 upvotes
Markham
recordman wrote: ^ RE has never crashed and never will. Your house should be worth $3M before the decade is over. In fact, you should buy another one and collect rent while it appreciates. cha-ching.
No one is saying that RE corrections don't happen. However, even if corrections happen, the homeowner will still be ahead. How many real estate bears here would not buy a house 20-30-40 years ago, if time travel was possible.

Whether the prices will level off, probably. But they certainly have more to climb before they level off.

Top

Thread Information

There are currently 2 users viewing this thread. (1 member and 1 guest)

ghilborn