Real Estate

Vancouver housing bubble?

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Deal Addict
Aug 12, 2004
4455 posts
2109 upvotes
Calgary
[QUOTE]The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price covering all major home types eliminates fluctuations in price growth due to changes in sales mix. The Composite Benchmark price was up by more than three per cent on a year-over-year basis in February.[/QUOTE]

Found this after a fair bit more digging, from the source. Your excuse is pre-emptively covered. So what's your next excuse?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 23, 2007
1458 posts
251 upvotes
Vancouver
Firebot wrote: This was around when he started posting as Mark77 about RE crashing in the main RE crash thread. If he was calling for a 50% crash back then (first page of this thread shows his train of thought), even with a 50% crash today, that 50% crash is now costing an extra 160000$ from the halfway point of $1,016,300. PF4 learned the hard way that waiting for a crash to buy only hurts those who sit on the sidelines, and he's been foaming at the mouth as recharts on the greaterfool comment section. He only hurt himself financialy by waiting for a crash that never happened.

You buy RE when you can afford it and it makes financial sense to do so, and not for the 'buy now or be priced out forever' claim, or even for some 'garanteed capital gain' belief (there is no garantee in life other then life, death and taxes). For sure, saving up to be in that good position is the proper way to do things, and it helps to dampen any correction effects should they ever happen.

But, waiting for some nonsense 50% US-style crash with some nonsense made up subprime mumbo jumbo? The only people hurting from that are those who are on the sidelines. I bought before this thread started, at the peak of all this cooling down and RE crash talk of 2012, doing my own research than to listen to a few sky is falling Chiken Littles. No regrets.
The statement below demonstrates the "buy when you need" answer to the question: When Should I Buy?
You buy RE when you can afford it and it makes financial sense to do so

There is a textbook answer provided by Mark77 below, but it has no real world application because it assumes a world based on perfect information and conditions. Well, we don't live in a world with perfect economic conditions and perfect information. You can't give an exact time or date, because no one can. This brings us back to the more generalized answer - buy when you need.
Mark77 wrote: When nobody else wants to buy, and prices are significantly below long-term average multiples of price to income, price to rent, etc. Probably co-occurring with a bubble in some other asset class.

Can't give you an exact time or date, of course, but you will have an excellent buying opportunity at some point in the not-so-distant future.
Those waiting for a "sale" (aka correction, crash, bubble burst) are just as foolish as those who claim "buy now or be priced out forever".

You buy when you need.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 23, 2007
1458 posts
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Vancouver
cstca wrote: "Buy when you need it" is very subjective. I need to buy a lot of things right now but I'll wait for better times (I'll have to win lotto first ;) ). Top of the list is a Ferrari :D
cstca wrote: We go into philosophical territories here, but one of the major issue in today's society is this concept of "buy when you need". I think it should be "buy when you can". Only because I have a CC with 100,000 CAD limit it doesn't mean I have to use all of it (big temptation for some...). "CAN" and "NEED" are totally different issues here - "CAN" should be more objective than "NEED".
You need an automobile for personal transportation. You want a Ferrari. You can use your $100K credit card to run up a deposit on a Ferrari (let's assume MCL Motors allows this). You walk away with a Ferrari - but should you? That's up to you to decide.

With respect to RE and home ownership, you need a home to reside in by yourself, or with your family & loved ones. You want an Arthur Erickson designed home. You can-not afford said multi-million dollar designer home (let's assume you don't have a $100K credit card, along with the finances to go along with a CC with such a limit being issued in the first place).

When it's said "buy when you need", there's some presumption that you have already established what you "can" afford. Your want would be adjusted accordingly to what you can afford. Instead of a multi-million dollar home, you'd be setting yourself up in townhome from a multi-family/unit residence. Again, should you proceed?

That's up to you to decide and whether the need is strong enough.
Jr. Member
Feb 6, 2014
176 posts
80 upvotes
Vancouver
bigsky2 wrote: Back on topic.

Where's the monthly updates for Vancouver?
Sales are tanking.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jun 28, 2007
3863 posts
1026 upvotes
minotaur3 wrote: Sales are tanking.
Are you taking over from the OP with wishful thinking?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e17279408/

Sales are "slightly" below the 10 year average - hardly "tanking" especially when the last ten years were booming. If anything the actual data shows a balanced market.

The same data also shows that Mark77's baseless claim that prices are falling on identical properties is completely false - they continue to moderately rise. No surprise there as Markk77's only intention is to spam and troll these housing threads with misinformation and made up BS - the logical consequence of not having anything better to do with his time.
Banned
User avatar
Feb 15, 2008
26318 posts
3217 upvotes
Calgary
Firebot wrote: No such thing. Google says nothing even when searching "real estate sales mix". Sorry, it's made up. You will need to provide sources to continue.
I've provided plenty of sources and information. And there most definitely is such a thing. Its pretty basic, go to school or something if you can't seem to comprehend basic statistical concepts.
TodayHello wrote: ...The Banks are smarter than you - they have floors full of people whose job it is to read Mark77 posts...
Deal Addict
Mar 10, 2010
1787 posts
471 upvotes
Mark77 wrote: I've provided plenty of sources and information. And there most definitely is such a thing. Its pretty basic, go to school or something if you can't seem to comprehend basic statistical concepts.
LOL...you mean PF4's heat charts? A banned troll is your only source...hmmm?
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
9430 posts
8469 upvotes
Markham
Mark77 wrote: I've provided plenty of sources and information. And there most definitely is such a thing. Its pretty basic, go to school or something if you can't seem to comprehend basic statistical concepts.
Lol plenty of sources. Show us one right now. Come on I dare you. I am surprised you have not used your ample free time to make up articles.
Jr. Member
Feb 6, 2014
176 posts
80 upvotes
Vancouver
gomyone wrote: Are you taking over from the OP with wishful thinking?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e17279408/

Sales are "slightly" below the 10 year average - hardly "tanking" especially when the last ten years were booming. If anything the actual data shows a balanced market.

The same data also shows that Mark77's baseless claim that prices are falling on identical properties is completely false - they continue to moderately rise. No surprise there as Markk77's only intention is to spam and troll these housing threads with misinformation and made up BS - the logical consequence of not having anything better to do with his time.
Hey genius, you can put away your MSM links, I was talking about March 2014. It's on pace to be 20-25% below 10y average. Sales are on pace to be below February which is practically unheard of (except in 2008). MOI is on pace to be higher than February, which again is almost unprecedented (2008 again).

Greater Van 10Y March Avg Sales: 3362
Est. March Sales: 2550 (-24% vs 10Y)
(Feb/14 was -3.8% vs 10Y)
(Jan/14 was +5.9% vs 10Y)
Deal Fanatic
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Feb 19, 2010
6237 posts
2967 upvotes
Probably as good a place as any for this.

[QUOTE]No Bubble to pop in Canada's Housing Market

Ottawa, March 24, 2014 - Canadian house prices may be headed for a modest decline nationally and in some local markets, but fears of a housing bubble are exaggerated, according to The Conference Board of Canada's initial Housing Briefing: Bubble Fears Overblown.

"Mortgage costs, not just house prices, are the principal deciding factor for potential homebuyers," said Robin Wiebe, Senior Economist, Centre for Municipal Studies. "Mortgage rates are expected to rise this year, but not dramatically, because the Canadian economy remains in a slow-growth mode.

"The housing market may be undergoing a correction in some regions and market segments, but it is more likely to be a soft landing than a bubble bursting."
[/QUOTE]

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/new ... arket.aspx

I'm sure we can expect a convoluted and lengthy diatribe from our resident real estate troll denigrating the Conference Board of Canada and people with actual economics education and background and why wouldn't we? Anybody who posts on here for upwards of 16 hours a day obviously doesn't have much else going on.
Jr. Member
Oct 17, 2007
130 posts
26 upvotes
Anikiri wrote: Lol plenty of sources. Show us one right now. Come on I dare you. I am surprised you have not used your ample free time to make up articles.
I did a quick search on Google and I found an interesting article. Just to give a few quotes:

British Columbia saw the median family net worth, which measures total assets minus total debts, rise 128 per cent between 1999 and 2012 to $344,000 from $150,700 13 years previously — the highest among provinces in Canada compared with the national average of 78 per cent to $243,800 from $137,000 over the same time period.
However, those family units have also accumulated more debt: a total of $1.34 trillion in 2012, up from $864.6 billion in 2005. Most of the debt — about $1 trillion — has been used to finance home purchases. All figures are in inflation-adjusted dollars.
However, the high prices are also a potential problem, according to economist Andrew Jackson of the Broadbent Institute, because prices are widely projected to moderate or even fall in the next few years.
“What I’m seeing, actually, is more of people taking on mortgages so big they’ve finally figured out they won’t pay them off in their lifetime,” Cripps said.

However, Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said Metro Vancouver condominium prices have seen almost no gains since 2010.

It's hard for me to see something like this sustainable for the long run.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Va ... z2wvvMWn6W
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jun 28, 2007
3863 posts
1026 upvotes
minotaur3 wrote: Hey genius, you can put away your MSM links, I was talking about March 2014. It's on pace to be 20-25% below 10y average. Sales are on pace to be below February which is practically unheard of (except in 2008). MOI is on pace to be higher than February, which again is almost unprecedented (2008 again).

Greater Van 10Y March Avg Sales: 3362
Est. March Sales: 2550 (-24% vs 10Y)
(Feb/14 was -3.8% vs 10Y)
(Jan/14 was +5.9% vs 10Y)
Your pitiful attempt at generalizing from partial non-seasonally adjusted data from one month is about as bad as the glorious proclamations of crashes the OP made when he started this thread a couple years ago and was extrapolating from changes in weekly sales data . Look where that got him - he's a laughing stock.

Guess it's a Good thing we've got another "genius" now following in his footsteps. You should track down some daily sales data too. If this Fridays sales are down significantly from Wednesdays then we've really got a major crash happening! :facepalm:
Deal Fanatic
May 1, 2012
9430 posts
8469 upvotes
Markham
Statements like:

"It's hard for me to see something like this sustainable for the long run."

"RE will revert back to 1-2x income."

"We are seeing a peak right now with prices about to turn."

"It happened in the states, it will happen here."

etc...

That's all just conjecture and opinions. Nothing more. Uneducated at that, too.

Can these prices continue forever? No.
Is real estate in trouble? No.
Can there be a correction? Yes.
Can anyone predict this correction? No.
So what are minotaur3 & Mark77 talking about? Uneducated gut calls.
Jr. Member
Oct 17, 2007
130 posts
26 upvotes
Time will tell who is right and who is wrong. I have posted quotes from people smarter than me, but if you decide to ignore them, that's okay. I rest my case.

Is real estate in trouble? No.

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