I didn't think it would wait until Spring given the following:adamtheman wrote: ↑ Things are breaking down in Vancouver big time. It is starting to move quickly now. I had wondered if perhaps we would see this drop wait until next Spring, but it looks like there's a lot of desperate sellers out there who want to get out of the market and not enough buyers. People who bought condos in early 2018 may have ended up being at the absolute peak of insanity.
1. Interest rates are going up much faster than the optimist believed it would. As the short term rates move, those open variable rate mortgage holders who didn't listen, believe, or understand how interest rates can move up from historic lows are now starting to scramble for a longer term fixed rate only to find out that the new mortgage stress test AND higher long term rates are causing further issues.
2. With the recent trade issues with the US and China causing the reported economic woes in China, we are probably see the effects of much stronger currency controls for outflows out of China. I've often pointed to Macau's casinos as a good indicator of how the outflows are going and from the stock prices of those casinos, things are not going well. Also, with the recent high profile arrest (or disappearance and reappearance) of high profile Chinese citizens - ie the actress and the former head of INTERPOL, I'll bet that others are either running or trying twice as hard now not to upset the Chinese government in any way shape or form.
3. The RE market hasn't been too transparent in terms of facts and figures and the RE boards have used that to their advantage. Now with the pending release of data on 'official' avenues like realtor.ca and the release on un-official ones like zealtor.ca, people are realizing exactly what's going on without the spin from the RE boards and they are drawing the own conclusions.
4. People are also starting to see the tell tale signs of a RE slowdown - new developments no longer selling out, houses that have been for sale for months, 'price lowered' signs on existing for sale signs, realtors giving away products (like iPhone Xs) for buying or selling with them.... - and it's sending a message to them that the RE boards haven't been exactly right.
5. With civic elections happening soon, many investors might be worried that many of the local governments will get more 'anti-investment' for housing and result in an even more depressed market.
Note. That this is all at a time when BC leads with the lowest unemployment AND with large mega projects being announced. In theory, all of this economic activity should be driving the RE market upwards... not downwards and yet, downwards is the direction we are going.