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Are we entering consolidation / bear market for the next few months? GIVE YOUR THOUGHTS

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 2nd, 2021 7:49 pm

Poll: How much are we going down in the next 2 months?

  • Total votes: 39. You have voted on this poll.
Nothing, V shape back to ATH
 
18
46%
0-2%
 
0
0%
2-4%
 
4
10%
4-6%
 
2
5%
6% and UP
 
15
38%
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 26, 2007
2803 posts
2613 upvotes
YYZ

Are we entering consolidation / bear market for the next few months? GIVE YOUR THOUGHTS

With the amount of new traders since covid, they actually haven't experienced a weekly downtrend in over two years (almost). So with this historic rise, are we due to see a weekly / monthly downtrend?

We've already been down around 5% on S&P and NASDAQ How much more we going to go?

How much do you think we are giving back?
Licensed Full Service Realtor
16 replies
Member
Dec 13, 2005
447 posts
395 upvotes
To me it seems like it will be driven by the news on omicron and inflation. Very hard to predict but given recent gains and heightened risk environment that's persisting, this pull back is not surprising to me.

The risk of being in an even worse pandemic is much higher when you are already in a pandemic. It's like what's the best predictor that you will live to 100? Living to 99.

On inflation and the economy, my take is that I still don't see a fully normally functioning economy. There are still lots of pandemic related dislocations that need time to work through the system: employment, supply chains, travel and leisure, debt levels.
Last edited by adavidso on Dec 2nd, 2021 7:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
We are likely entering a bear market, it will last much longer than three months. Downturns will be in the double-digits. Some sectors will be bounce back, others will not. Some sectors will do very well (sectors that are fine with higher inflation and rates).

It's already started with the Omicron sell off. Ultimately my prediction is Omicron alone will not have a large effect on the the global economy. That's all fear, spec and hype. But stagflation and higher rates, slower growth will take their toll.

Some sectors are silly overvalued and will correct to economic reality (most tech).
Member
Jun 6, 2017
224 posts
386 upvotes
I find it funny how the ranges are 0-2%, 2-4%, 4-6% and 6%+ over 2 months. I view all of these as essentially noise and were using words like bear market/etc.
There is something to be said here around expectations about the market have changes drastically in the last few years.
Member
Aug 18, 2019
442 posts
420 upvotes
BUY!!! THE!!! FREAKIN!!! DIP!!!Thumbs Up Sign
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Sr. Member
Sep 28, 2011
818 posts
1481 upvotes
Winnipeg
AllanMar wrote: I find it funny how the ranges are 0-2%, 2-4%, 4-6% and 6%+ over 2 months. I view all of these as essentially noise and were using words like bear market/etc.
There is something to be said here around expectations about the market have changes drastically in the last few years.
That's an excellent point. Something like this would be more much realistic.

  • Nothing, V shape back to ATH
  • 0-10%
  • 10-20% Correction
  • 20-30% Crash
  • >30% Ugly Crash
Deal Addict
Dec 4, 2011
2565 posts
2828 upvotes
Montréal
So one weekly/monthly candle is a bear market now?
Member
User avatar
Dec 31, 2018
249 posts
385 upvotes
Kurtz7834 wrote: We are likely entering a bear market, it will last much longer than three months. Downturns will be in the double-digits. Some sectors will be bounce back, others will not. Some sectors will do very well (sectors that are fine with higher inflation and rates).

It's already started with the Omicron sell off. Ultimately my prediction is Omicron alone will not have a large effect on the the global economy. That's all fear, spec and hype. But stagflation and higher rates, slower growth will take their toll.

Some sectors are silly overvalued and will correct to economic reality (most tech).
Is this your first time calling for a bear market/stagflation in the recent past? In my experience, these people are like a broken clock (see Peter Schiff). You could be different though.
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
TrickleDownEconomics wrote: Is this your first time calling for a bear market/stagflation in the recent past? In my experience, these people are like a broken clock (see Peter Schiff). You could be different though.
The signs have been there for 6-12 months already. It's anybody's guess when the bubble bursts. It's When rather than If, in my opinion.

As for 'bear market,' some stuff should have very good returns (Energy and anything else that profits from inflation) so I'm not really concerned.

Solid companies will be fine, it's the speculative stuff that is gonna feel big pain.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6155 posts
10805 upvotes
Canada
Buddy, a bear market is -20% from ATH

Change your poll
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 26, 2007
2803 posts
2613 upvotes
YYZ
Just to clarify with everyone I'm not stating we are entering ANY bear or bull market. I was just curious to hear others opinions / thoughts / market sentiment.
I trade with the numbers in front of me, and my investments are 90% long term. Im not going to be selling even if i do see a loss in the short term. I do have a cash position that i can add if anything becomes oversold / undervalued

good luck to all!
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User avatar
Dec 31, 2018
249 posts
385 upvotes
Kurtz7834 wrote: The signs have been there for 6-12 months already. It's anybody's guess when the bubble bursts. It's When rather than If, in my opinion.

As for 'bear market,' some stuff should have very good returns (Energy and anything else that profits from inflation) so I'm not really concerned.

Solid companies will be fine, it's the speculative stuff that is gonna feel big pain.
We had a beat market last year. You think we are due for another one already?
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 26, 2007
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YYZ
TrickleDownEconomics wrote: We had a beat market last year. You think we are due for another one already?
We were in a bear market last year??
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Dec 12, 2009
29541 posts
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This poll is too one sided. Brian Belski says this December is going to be unforgettably good. I agree with him.
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Deal Guru
Feb 9, 2009
12381 posts
11307 upvotes
A lot of tech names are already in bear market.

I think good solid blue chips will outperform.

But with oil and gas down the last week maybe inflation pressures ease and fed can’t take it easy with rate hikes soon.

Having said that in neutral. If it goes down I got a lot of dry powder to buy the dip. If it goes I’m getting wealthier.

Meh
Member
User avatar
Dec 31, 2018
249 posts
385 upvotes
bLuPhYrE wrote: We were in a bear market last year??
Yes we were. We were down way more than 20% from the all time highs in March 2020. Your response proves that bear markets may not be nearly as painful as they are made out to be, especially if you don’t have to sell. You know that saying, more money is lost in anticipation of a bear market than the bear market itself.

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