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We are in a severe recessionary period, yet for the most part most things feel normal

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  • Nov 30th, 2020 8:42 pm
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Jr. Member
May 23, 2020
122 posts
47 upvotes

We are in a severe recessionary period, yet for the most part most things feel normal

People are still buying, jobs still feel intact for the most part, recruiters are still competing for talent, and people don't seem very worried.

what am I missing?
70 replies
Jr. Member
Dec 22, 2008
156 posts
32 upvotes
Mississauga
Dont see as much jobs on market as usual. There are some but few. May be its coz summer times vacation plans etc. We will see
Deal Addict
Aug 16, 2008
1056 posts
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Markham
Driverbe wrote: People are still buying, jobs still feel intact for the most part, recruiters are still competing for talent, and people don't seem very worried.

what am I missing?
1) CERB
2) Wage subsidy
3) The hope/expectation that things will return to normal by the time the above two options run out.
4) Low interest rates (with respect to housing)

The irony is that I've noticed most of my friends that have either been furlowed/laid off/on CERB, theyre spending habits have loosened up a lot.
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Oct 26, 2003
37376 posts
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Winnipeg
No significant changes for now due to reasons already mentioned, maybe once CERB is over there might be some change.
WTB amazon gc @90%
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Nov 13, 2010
7607 posts
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Scarborough
Companies are still laying off people, and pretty much everywhere its about waiting on September (to see if all schools open regularly).....if stuff doesn’t reopen then we will see more job losses and layoffs.
Economy was already downhill before covid, now it will be worse
People need to stop unnecessary spending and get down to basics (food, shelter, medicine). Will definitely need that money later
Jr. Member
Dec 27, 2014
160 posts
172 upvotes
Toronto, ON
I've really been noticing this lately as well. It seems like people are reacting opposite to the situation with a lot more spending (see a LOT of major home improvements going on such as installing pools, paving driveways) There seems to be a lot of new vehicle purchases as well.

My job is about as secure as I could hope for, but I'm not going out and spending like crazy.
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Nov 6, 2010
9933 posts
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Montreal, QC
I might offer an additional reason: depending on where you live, social interaction has slowed or grown to a downright halt for the last few months. Psychologically speaking, some people may be spending the time and money they would have spent on social/communal activities instead on other things. Consumerism as a coping mechanism basically.

As far as the job market is concerned, I would be interested to see actual stats for those once we have the data. Just because you're seeing job ads and recruiting activities doesn't mean the overall economy/job market is doing good or better than pre-covid.
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May 4, 2010
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unowned wrote: 1) CERB
2) Wage subsidy
3) The hope/expectation that things will return to normal by the time the above two options run out.
4) Low interest rates (with respect to housing)

The irony is that I've noticed most of my friends that have either been furlowed/laid off/on CERB, theyre spending habits have loosened up a lot.
That's funny because I was laid off and due to my experience from 2008 recession (where I couldn't even find a standard retail job despite 10+ years of experience) I learned my lesson well.

I saved a good chunk of my severance for tough times ahead and avoided any purchases that weren't a need.

I think September is when things will play out for how they really are.

Is anyone an active LinkedIn user? I constantly see layoff posts from people in my network.
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Dec 20, 2004
5477 posts
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Toronto
We have the largest government financial intervention in the history of humanity. Once some of these measures subside we are likely to see the real effects of all these lockdowns.
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Feb 29, 2008
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Tarrana & The Ri…
C_C wrote: That's funny because I was laid off and due to my experience from 2008 recession (where I couldn't even find a standard retail job despite 10+ years of experience) I learned my lesson well.

I saved a good chunk of my severance for tough times ahead and avoided any purchases that weren't a need.

I think September is when things will play out for how they really are.

Is anyone an active LinkedIn user? I constantly see layoff posts from people in my network.
I’m on LinkedIn. I get the odd recruiter reaching out. A lot of companies simply aren’t hiring. A lot of people are looking.
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May 4, 2010
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JayLove06 wrote: I’m on LinkedIn. I get the odd recruiter reaching out. A lot of companies simply aren’t hiring. A lot of people are looking.
Yep. When the hiring freezes are lifted (if they are, around the new year) it's gonna be really fun.

I've noticed a lot of the jobs that ARE hiring get like 200+ applications in a few minutes.
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
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Tarrana & The Ri…
C_C wrote: Yep. When the hiring freezes are lifted (if they are, around the new year) it's gonna be really fun.

I've noticed a lot of the jobs that ARE hiring get like 200+ applications in a few minutes.
Thing is, I don't think those hiring freezes will be removed for a while. Maybe 2022.
Member
May 29, 2017
462 posts
367 upvotes
Some companies are hiring. CCTV and access control companies are doing ok. Generally the telecommunication industry seems to be fine. I have an interview for a telecom company while I seen Hydro one is currently hiring as well. I would say though, a few companies have been skimming on pay while not being affected by covid.
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May 4, 2010
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JayLove06 wrote: Thing is, I don't think those hiring freezes will be removed for a while. Maybe 2022.
Was your job impacted by the COVID situation at all? What industry do you work in?

I'm in one which was the hardest hit and usually always is (Marketing). It will bounce back, its a matter of when and if I can wait for it too.
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Feb 29, 2008
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Tarrana & The Ri…
C_C wrote: Was your job impacted by the COVID situation at all? What industry do you work in?

I'm in one which was the hardest hit and usually always is (Marketing). It will bounce back, its a matter of when and if I can wait for it too.
IT industry. My company removed all the job postings. Marketing is always hard hit.
Jr. Member
Dec 20, 2015
168 posts
73 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
C_C wrote:
I've noticed a lot of the jobs that ARE hiring get like 200+ applications in a few minutes.
I'm not job hunting at the moment but I did have a chat with my HR friend the other day and she mentioned that many jobs can easily get 800+ applicants in a week. (split between Linkedin, Indeed, recruiters, direct career portal, etc.) It's extremely competitive since a lot of people were laid off recently...

On the other hand, my friend who recently got laid off mentioned that there are some jobs posted online that aren't actually being filled at the moment. (eg. he received an automated email reply saying that they would move onto the in-person interview stage once they're able to return to the office at full capacity) Anyway, times are tough and I wish you the best of luck!
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Mar 7, 2007
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The real problems are going to start beyond September. I think that would still be too early to tell.

Let's look back: Millions of Canadians lost their jobs, are only a portion was able to go back to work. The rest are depending on government help. Right now, the situation is stable precisely because of that... some people went back to work, and others are on CERB.

But CERB cannot last forever, and the economy is going to need months, maybe 1 year, maybe longer, to employ everyone back again.

And if there is a spike or second wave, we are doomed.
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Mar 7, 2007
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I could not find numbers for June, but here is a reference.

Source of data is Stats Canada, posted at Global News.


What the numbers show is simply a massive loss of jobs during 2020, with a slight recovery in May.



Image
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Jul 13, 2009
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motomondo wrote: The real problems are going to start beyond September. I think that would still be too early to tell.

Let's look back: Millions of Canadians lost their jobs, are only a portion was able to go back to work. The rest are depending on government help. Right now, the situation is stable precisely because of that... some people went back to work, and others are on CERB.

But CERB cannot last forever, and the economy is going to need months, maybe 1 year, maybe longer, to employ everyone back again.

And if there is a spike or second wave, we are doomed.
We literally cannot afford a second wave, especially if the second wave is worse than the first. It will wipe people out and businesses out. Retail is getting wiped out and food/beverage business, businesses who were in the middle of expanding, small businesses cannot weather this, and fortunately/unfortunately small businesses who were too creative with their tax reporting.

The only solution is more money and more handouts because if a sizeable chunk of the economy goes out overnight, it's bad news for everyone really. A vaccine will restore consumer confidence by a 10000% too. Those with good savings are putting big spending on hold, like travel, home renos, real estate, cars. There are people in 'secure' jobs, but there's a lot in jobs where it could go either way depending how their employer goes.

There's no bootstrap pulling, or "find something new" at this scale of a downturn. When CERB runs out, people will start missing rent payments which becomes mortgage/loan defaults, and spending will drop like a rock.

Money and a vaccine, end of story.
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Nov 6, 2010
9933 posts
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The difference compared to say 2008 is that some unemployment accelerated by COVID-19 will be structural in nature aka jobs that have left and won't come back for at least a little while (if never); we're talking a lot moer small/medium businesses that have closed and the impacts it will have to companies that worked with those businesses. Sure, many of the jobs lost can be replaced (e.g. replace a closed store or restaurant with a new one), but it's not always 1 to 1 and certainly it won't be instantaneous the second a vaccine is announced.

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