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We are in a severe recessionary period, yet for the most part most things feel normal

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  • Nov 30th, 2020 8:42 pm
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Aug 21, 2020
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I guess a site/forum like this would attract people who would notice the apparent disconnect with that's going on with the economy. I couldn't understand it either, how hot the economy was while so many businesses are shut down, and people out of work. If you're looking to buy a motorcycle right now, good luck. With certain types of bikes, dealerships are sold out, and used ones are selling higher than new MSRP. It's crazy. I assumed that a lot of it was people still working also collecting the CERB, but I've recently learned that a lot of people who are still working are taking advantage of the deferral programs through the banks and spending that money on bikes, boats, renovations, etc.
That's an awfully expensive way to finance your hobbies, and it'll be a windfall for the banks.
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Nov 2, 2013
5624 posts
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Edmonton, AB
apnayloags wrote: Even if people are employed, many have reduced hours and less or no overtime due to reduced hrs of operations. Those jobs still remain risk of layoffs or further reductions of work and hours.
Is the fed govt prepared to write off all mortgages and rents if massive unemployment occurs due to 2nd3rd waves?
The govt needs to assure canadians.....and so far we have nothing in support of that yet the media keeps fearmongering about coming if the terrifying 2nd wave
Mortgages, not so much. There's too many people with money out there to buy distressed mortgaged properties - and pay big money for them as well. Not to mention banks are one of the greatest evils in our society - not hesitating to kick you to the curb at their soonest opportunity once you're no longer profitable. The govt. can provide them cheap debt to keep them going or some other relief, but they'll happily eat it up without passing it down to you. The closest thing you'd see is govt. subsidized housing, which has been around for a while.

Rent: more chance - but likely see it in a form of glorified welfare. Cheaper, quicker, and less work to prescribe. You'll see people who spend it on hookers and blow but the benefits will be deemed to outweigh the costs. People talk like the CERB like so out of this world but "universal" basic income has been around for a while, just in the form of welfare or child benefits. In Alberta, you used to be able to get a tax free monthly payment of over $5,000/month factoring in both federal and provincial child benefits (4 kids). Now adding the federal portion, it's over $6,700 tax free monthly money. You can mortgage some nice house with that. In BC, (though the figures are slightly different) - that was partly the cause of overheated housing in some parts as people were squeezing as many heads under their roofs as possible to use as qualification income.

You just need to s**t out enough kids and make sure you don't have much other income. Oh what's that, you don't have a child? Or your child is just a cat? You get nothing!

Regardless of what form of financial relief the govt. prescribes, a strong incentive for them to do so is the availability of cheap debt and governments around the world printing mass amounts of money. So relative to other currencies, the Canadian dollar wouldn't devalue terribly much when other currencies are also being devalued in somewhat parallel. Cheap currency is also good for buyers with other currencies, such as our real estate that likes to attract foreign money... and the govt. likes to tax with increasing property value.
Last edited by FirstGear on Aug 23rd, 2020 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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May 29, 2006
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all of my friends are still working and spending, however anyone in travel/tourism/resteraunt would be likely struggling badely right now.
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Jun 21, 2011
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just wait until next year tax time. actually the deadline for tax payment is Sept, so lets see how Sept will play out for those who owe money for CRA from 2019.

CERB is for your safety net, not for house remodeling or buying whatever, lets see next month and april 2021.
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Aug 12, 2004
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The pandemic has largely impacted specific industries and has been unprecedented in its impact, but the reality is that most people have continued to work throughout this pandemic.

This graph is a great representation of the current situation. While we hit the worst levels of unemployment since the Great Depression in April with the shutdown of the country, we are already above 1982 recession levels of employment rate and right around the 1990s recession levels. It's still very bad, but more at normal recession levels.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/employment-rate

There's also the part where people would normally splurge heavily on vacations. Since they can't, they have more disposable income to spend on things at home.

Spending is also up from last year, let alone pre-pandemic, and that's in the province hardest hit.

https://www.atb.com/company/insights/th ... ing-covid/

I understand it's been taboo to talk of positives, it sucks if you got hit hard by the pandemic, but the reality is a lot of people are doing ok and even better than ok. It makes the disparity so much worse for those impacted as people's worlds and experiences are completely different.
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May 4, 2010
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Firebot wrote:
I understand it's been taboo to talk of positives, it sucks if you got hit hard by the pandemic, but the reality is a lot of people are doing ok and even better than ok. It makes the disparity so much worse for those impacted as people's worlds and experiences are completely different.
You're right, many people who work in industries which were not impacted are doing great. It's hard to know who isn't - I've been reaching out to various individuals in my network and finding a lot of them are out of work (they work in the same industry as me). Unless you do this, you can't really tell - people keep it to themselves out of shame? fear? uncertainty? Who knows. All I know is that it's helped me personally realize, hey, it's not just me.

As I've mentioned before - unless an individual was directly impacted it has no baring on them what other people are experiencing. There's no concept of 'hey, x # of people are out of work' its more 'phew, I'M okay, so whatever'.
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Nov 2, 2013
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Edmonton, AB
The quote "the rich get richer" holds true in this scenario. There are those who have profited significantly from this pandemic. Money doesn't disappear - it just flows somewhere else...

An example is Alberta, which has been hit by the double whammy of low oil prices and COVID-19. Yet real estate activity has been the busiest in years, with little to no deals to be found on detached homes. People are still mortgaging themselves up to their nose and keep buying them, though the economic prospects here are grim. Whenever a new major face-lift of higher end vehicle line comes out, you start seeing them all over the place. You wonder where the money comes from.
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Oct 7, 2010
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C_C wrote: You're right, many people who work in industries which were not impacted are doing great. It's hard to know who isn't - I've been reaching out to various individuals in my network and finding a lot of them are out of work (they work in the same industry as me). Unless you do this, you can't really tell - people keep it to themselves out of shame? fear? uncertainty? Who knows. All I know is that it's helped me personally realize, hey, it's not just me.

As I've mentioned before - unless an individual was directly impacted it has no baring on them what other people are experiencing. There's no concept of 'hey, x # of people are out of work' its more 'phew, I'M okay, so whatever'.
Depends on industry. Travel and tourism dead. Retail and restaurants sorta dead. Which industry are you?
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May 4, 2010
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spike1128 wrote: Depends on industry. Travel and tourism dead. Retail and restaurants sorta dead. Which industry are you?
Marketing/advertising - the first to get cut always and applies to ALL industries.
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Aug 10, 2018
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suprf1y wrote: I guess a site/forum like this would attract people who would notice the apparent disconnect with that's going on with the economy. I couldn't understand it either, how hot the economy was while so many businesses are shut down, and people out of work. If you're looking to buy a motorcycle right now, good luck. With certain types of bikes, dealerships are sold out, and used ones are selling higher than new MSRP. It's crazy. I assumed that a lot of it was people still working also collecting the CERB, but I've recently learned that a lot of people who are still working are taking advantage of the deferral programs through the banks and spending that money on bikes, boats, renovations, etc.
That's an awfully expensive way to finance your hobbies, and it'll be a windfall for the banks.
Another possible reason to spend more money might be that people are expecting high inflation or hyperinflation. Also investment tools are getting more risky now.
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Dec 11, 2005
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C_C wrote: Marketing/advertising - the first to get cut always and applies to ALL industries.
Ain't that the truth, saw it first hand when myself and my team mates were let go about 1.5 month ago. Privately held media company :/ lesson learned. Turned out they hired a bunch of offshore consultants.
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Jr. Member
Dec 20, 2015
168 posts
73 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
C_C wrote: Marketing/advertising - the first to get cut always and applies to ALL industries.
My friends in marketing were the first to be laid off (both in real estate) and they've been struggling to get interviews since the competition is so high. It seems that most decent FT job postings receive well over 500 applicants within days, even though many firms have dropped their starting salaries... Hope things get better!
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Nov 2, 2013
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Isshoukenmei wrote: My friends in marketing were the first to be laid off (both in real estate) and they've been struggling to get interviews since the competition is so high. It seems that most decent FT job postings receive well over 500 applicants within days, even though many firms have dropped their starting salaries... Hope things get better!
There was one opening in Grande Prairie Alberta to recruit for a pair of electricians (journeyman + apprentice). Within the first day, there was 586 applicants. This was before COVID started too. At one point crowds decided going into trades was good money and work, and then saturated it became.
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Jul 13, 2009
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C_C wrote: Marketing/advertising - the first to get cut always and applies to ALL industries.
and HR/Recruitment.
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May 4, 2010
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TorontoEh wrote: Ain't that the truth, saw it first hand when myself and my team mates were let go about 1.5 month ago. Privately held media company :/ lesson learned. Turned out they hired a bunch of offshore consultants.
Of course they did, gotta keep those costs down right. How's your search going? Based on my experience in the last recession where I applied for literally 100's of jobs - it's the same deal. The ironic part is NOW I actually have lots of experience (5+ years) but everyone seems to be looking for entry level (1+ yr) /associate (2-3 yrs). I guess I'll apply to those lower positions, what can I do. I really, really do not want to start from the bottom again....I see some postings and I'm like 'yeah...those days are behind me, I'll pass'.

Many, many postings asking for explicit experience in THAT specific industry, doesn't matter if you can parlay your other industry experience into that. I apply regardless because you never know. So far, no bites (i've only been at it for a few weeks).

It's not a resume issue either....its more that there are TONS of qualified/overqualified people saturating the market. A lot of places also have hiring freezes until end of year as well....listings that apply to me, are few and far between.

I don't know that I really expect much right now.
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May 4, 2010
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bhrm wrote: and HR/Recruitment.
I guess this makes sense - they probably load the work onto 1 or 2 people.
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Isshoukenmei wrote: My friends in marketing were the first to be laid off (both in real estate) and they've been struggling to get interviews since the competition is so high. It seems that most decent FT job postings receive well over 500 applicants within days, even though many firms have dropped their starting salaries... Hope things get better!
Me too. I've seen it on LinkedIn, hundreds of candidates for the ONE role. Then the hiring manager decides to come out with a NEW listing with even more complex qualifications, cuz 'why not?' they're inundated with people, so why not find the purple unicorn. Difficult to explain to this to those who are not looking and have no concept.

I've noticed recruiters aren't answering their messages or ghosting on connection requests - which I'm not sure I understand fully, since it's your job to find qualified people for your listings. They're likely overwhelmed with the various channels where resumes are pouring in.

Its certainly an interesting time.
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Feb 29, 2008
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C_C wrote: Me too. I've seen it on LinkedIn, hundreds of candidates for the ONE role. Then the hiring manager decides to come out with a NEW listing with even more complex qualifications, cuz 'why not?' they're inundated with people, so why not find the purple unicorn. Difficult to explain to this to those who are not looking and have no concept.

I've noticed recruiters aren't answering their messages or ghosting on connection requests - which I'm not sure I understand fully, since it's your job to find qualified people for your listings. They're likely overwhelmed with the various channels where resumes are pouring in.

Its certainly an interesting time.
Recruiters aren’t ghosting excellent candidates though. I still get contacted once a week by a recruiter for a job. I imagine tech is doing well.
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Dec 8, 2007
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Observation: Several of my neighbors are doing major renos during this time; swimming pools, decks, kitchens, etc. Seems a bit ... imprudent? Maybe we all have different risk tolerances. It does feel like we're driving towards a cliff, though.
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JayLove06 wrote: Recruiters aren’t ghosting excellent candidates though. I still get contacted once a week by a recruiter for a job. I imagine tech is doing well.
You're still employed right? So right off the bat that makes you more desirable then someone unemployed. If someone is employed it doesn't automatically make them an 'excellent' candidate. It's a perception thing as you and I have discussed in prior threads.

What do all the tech marketers on this forum think? How's the tech job market doing for you?

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