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Locked: What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Nov 16th, 2022 11:49 am
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Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
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Greater Toronto Area
Blubbs wrote: How much do you actually understand about the science we have about this variant? Because it is not like the others.

Your overconfidence and use of the term "Dumb Money" without any reference to volume data that would indicate this is primarily retail investors tells me that you don't really have the answers... Mostly guesses.

That being said I'm holding the Suncor I purchased at $24.57 and do not intend to sell.

PS: Canada just announced a travel ban from several African Countries. Also Israel has stated they are close to declaring a new state of emergency.
Any claims about the 'science' of the new variant are speculative.

Regardless of what happens with the COVID variant, there is no basis for this kind of one day reduction in market value of Canadian energy companies. See my post above this.

I can guarantee that institutions are not dumping Canadian energy shares in advance of the US long weekend. That is 100% uneducated retail investors doing that. Shorts are also playing off volatility, as usual.

"Like if you look at Crude WTI down 11% today, there is no basis for that kind of decline. Regardless of what happens with the COVID variant, people will still drive and heat their homes and need oil and natural gas. Domestic inventories are low and OPEC+ is going to be wary of releasing a lot more supply with these kind of crazy WTI drops."
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
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Blubbs wrote: There is more that still needs to come to light. This variant has by far the greatest chance for immune escape and it appears to be extremely transmissible, outcompeting Delta with ease. We already know that existing monoclonal antibodies won't work properly against this as the target sites are different.
Could be a problem, could not be a problem. Whatever the virus does, it makes no sense that high quality Canadian Energy companies are now worth 6-8% less as a result of this news.

So smart investors are seeing a buying opportunity today.
Deal Addict
Oct 25, 2009
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500 points down on TSX is nothing, bring TSX down to 17,000 then it'll be interesting
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
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dpwr wrote: 500 points down on TSX is nothing, bring TSX down to 17,000 then it'll be interesting
Yeah, the declines in the broad market are not very exciting. But there are large declines in Canadian energy, without logical basis, that present an attractive buying opportunity, in my opinion.

I'll go out on a limb and say... TSX is never going back to 17,000, it's full of commodity related companies and financials, it's not crazy high overvalued like a lot of the US market (with some exceptions like Shopify).
Last edited by Kurtz7834 on Nov 26th, 2021 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6156 posts
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Canada
Kurtz7834 wrote: Any claims about the 'science' of the new variant are speculative.

Regardless of what happens with the COVID variant, there is no basis for this kind of one day reduction in market value of Canadian energy companies. See my post above this.

"Like if you look at Crude WTI down 11% today, there is no basis for that kind of decline. Regardless of what happens with the COVID variant, people will still drive and heat their homes and need oil and natural gas. Domestic inventories are low and OPEC+ is going to be wary of releasing a lot more supply with these kind of crazy WTI drops."
Guy, they have sequenced it and have early population data. WHO declared an hour ago that it carries a higher risk of reinfection than other variants. 72% of South Africa has already contracted COVID, yet cases increased 252% week over week.

Image



Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
Blubbs wrote: Guy, they have sequenced it and have early population data. WHO declared an hour ago that it carries a higher risk of reinfection than other variants. 72% of South Africa has already contracted COVID, yet cases increased 252% week over week.
OK. You can worry about it. You are quoting info from Twitter, which is hardly a credible source for scientific info. Let's wait several weeks until the dust settles and there is some peer reviewed data and a bit of consensus. This would hardly be the first time we have had unwarranted "Doom and Gloom" fear mongering from various doctors. Much of the worst predictions never came to pass and they would constantly release very negative 'models' which didn't happen.

I made some large gains buying beaten down shares during the darkest days of the Delta variant and the fear and hysteria associated with it.

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy."
Warren Buffett said it best and his advice will still make $$.
Last edited by Kurtz7834 on Nov 26th, 2021 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
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Canada
Kurtz7834 wrote: OK. You can worry about it. I made some large gains buying beaten down shares during the darkest days of the Delta variant and the fear and hysteria associated with it.

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy."
Warren Buffett said it best and his advice will still make $$.
Fear? I didn't even call for a market crash. Apparently presenting data and graphs is not allowed now. And yes, these are reputable sources. Financial Times, a lab, and a Harvard doc.

Your attitude speaks of someone who hasn't had to deal with the health consequences of COVID. You seem gleeful that this is happening and you get to 'stick it to the retail plebs' (of which you are one). It's possible that one day you will have to deal with a family member dying from covid as my family has, or being disabled with long covid. But I would never wish that upon you.

I never took issue with the idea of you buying SU. Have at it. I like the company. I've made a lot of money off of owning it so far.
Last edited by Blubbs on Nov 26th, 2021 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jan 14, 2009
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Vancouver, BC
Kurtz7834 wrote: OK. You can worry about it. I made some large gains buying beaten down shares during the darkest days of the Delta variant and the fear and hysteria associated with it.

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy."
Warren Buffett said it best and his advice will still make $$.
That applies for the general market. Going overweight on Canadian O&G is risky. The 5-year graph for ZEO and XEG is ugly as hell with -25% decline and dividend cuts. There will be more dividend cuts - probably.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
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Blubbs wrote: Guy, they have sequenced it and have early population data. WHO declared an hour ago that it carries a higher risk of reinfection than other variants. 72% of South Africa has already contracted COVID, yet cases increased 252% week over week.

Image



The problem is that the data that we see is summarized based on estimated data. For example, unless South Africa has gotten a whole lot more advanced in the past few months, there is no way that the figure of 72% is anything more than an educated guess on a set of questionable data.

Also, we know that the current outbreak is concentrated in one area of South Africa. We don't know if that particular area was hard hit in the past by a previous variant or if that area was relatively untouched. Also, South Africa has a very low rate of vaccinations in the first place.

What we do know is that the news of the variant has been out for the past two weeks (detected if I remember correctly the week of November 7th) and that there is a cluster with some spread outside of that cluster. The reaction today is more based on the fact that the WHO held a meeting and gave their initial opinions based on initial data collected in the past two weeks.
Deal Addict
Apr 27, 2015
3051 posts
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Mississauga
72% of South Africa has already contracted COVID, yet cases increased 252% week over week.
I July South Africa had close to 20K cases per day on average, today (after all crazy %%% reported) it's about 1K
"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others" George Orwell
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
Blubbs wrote: Fear? I didn't even call for a market crash. Apparently presenting data and graphs is not allowed now.

Your attitude speaks of someone who hasn't had to deal with the health consequences of COVID. You seem gleeful that this is happening and you get to 'stick it to the retail plebs' (of which you are one). It's possible that one day you will have to deal with a family member dying from covid as my family has, or being disabled with long covid. But I would never wish that upon you.

I never took issue with the idea of you buying SU. Have at it. I like the company. I've made a lot of money off of owning it so far.
It's Twitter. I will take it as seriously as I would any 'data' from Twitter or other non credible social media sites.

As for the rest, I'm confident that humanity and our brilliant scientific minds will allow us to overcome the challenges of COVID and move forward. The world keeps turning.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
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Canada
craftsman wrote: The problem is that the data that we see is summarized based on estimated data. For example, unless South Africa has gotten a whole lot more advanced in the past few months, there is no way that the figure of 72% is anything more than an educated guess on a set of questionable data.

Also, we know that the current outbreak is concentrated in one area of South Africa. We don't know if that particular area was hard hit in the past by a previous variant or if that area was relatively untouched. Also, South Africa has a very low rate of vaccinations in the first place.

What we do know is that the news of the variant has been out for the past two weeks (detected if I remember correctly the week of November 7th) and that there is a cluster with some spread outside of that cluster. The reaction today is more based on the fact that the WHO held a meeting and gave their initial opinions based on initial data collected in the past two weeks.
It's in Belgium, Israel, Hong Kong. It spread in Hong Kong from one hotel room to another next door - airborne transmission, as expected.

Relating to the geographic comment about one area of South Africa, most provinces of the country are now experiencing exponential covid case growth. See below:





We definitely need more data. Not a promising start.
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
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zakarydoks wrote: That applies for the general market. Going overweight on Canadian O&G is risky. The 5-year graph for ZEO and XEG is ugly as hell with -25% decline and dividend cuts. There will be more dividend cuts - probably.
Yes I wouldn't suggest holding Energy long term. I disagree that there will be dividend cuts before the end of 2022. These companies are awash in cash and they are not spending much of it in capital expenditure. They are giving it back to shareholders. Beyond 2022, I am not comfortable making predictions.

My thesis has been that Energy prices and COVID cases are not as correlated as many people think they are. COVID is not going to kill demand for Oil and Gas and supply shortages remain a real issue.
Last edited by Kurtz7834 on Nov 26th, 2021 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Deal Expert
Jan 27, 2006
21844 posts
15620 upvotes
Vancouver, BC
zakarydoks wrote: That applies for the general market. Going overweight on Canadian O&G is risky. The 5-year graph for ZEO and XEG is ugly as hell with -25% decline and dividend cuts. There will be more dividend cuts - probably.
Please try to understand the fundamentals of the O&G market before making a call on it. The O&G companies are in a much better financial shape today than at any time in the past 5 years; heck, many of them have cut their debt levels in half over the past year. They survived when oil was below ZERO. They have not increased dividends back up to the rate before COVID. Oil demand is now at pre-COVID levels even without a full return to air travel.

Having said the above, O&G are commodities and should be traded as such.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 21, 2013
6156 posts
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Canada
gibor365365 wrote: I July South Africa had close to 20K cases per day on average, today (after all crazy %%% reported) it's about 1K
The growth rate is what matters most. They found it early which is good for us. If it's not too late.
Kurtz7834 wrote: It's Twitter. I will take it as seriously as I would any 'data' from Twitter or other non credible social media sites.

As for the rest, I'm confident that humanity and our brilliant scientific minds will allow us to overcome the challenges of COVID and move forward. The world keeps turning.
I'm not going to debate the veracity of these sources with you. Basically, I know more about this topic and what is credible in relation to it than you unless you happen to be in my line of work - which I can tell you are not.

Take whatever investing takeaways you want from it.

I agree we will beat COVID. But the question is at what cost and how long. We have already royally screwed up the situation with rich nations hoarding vaccines and vaccine generation.
Last edited by Blubbs on Nov 26th, 2021 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
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Greater Toronto Area
Blubbs wrote: The growth rate is what matters most. They found it early which is good for us. If it's not too late.

I'm not going to debate the veracity of these sources with you. Basically, I know more about this topic and what is credible in relation to it than you unless you happy to be in my line of work - which I can tell you are not.

Take whatever investing takeaways you want from it.

I agree we will beat COVID. But the question is at what cost and how long. We have already royally screwed up the situation with rich nations hoarding vaccines and vaccine generation.
I don't doubt that you know much more about COVID than me. Let's hope that the new variant doesn't get out of control worldwide.
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Jan 14, 2009
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craftsman wrote: Please try to understand the fundamentals of the O&G market before making a call on it. The O&G companies are in a much better financial shape today than at any time in the past 5 years; heck, many of them have cut their debt levels in half over the past year. They survived when oil was below ZERO. They have not increased dividends back up to the rate before COVID. Oil demand is now at pre-COVID levels even without a full return to air travel.

Having said the above, O&G are commodities and should be traded as such.
I'm just glad I don't hold any Canadian O&G outside of my index ETFs because they performed so, so, so poorly. I think they call it picking up pennies in front of the steamroller. I'm not a trader, just a buy and hold investor and I'm glad I don't own Canadian O&G.
If you buy vgro for a thousand years Vancouver homes will still be out of reach.
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
zakarydoks wrote: I'm just glad I don't hold any Canadian O&G outside of my index ETFs because they performed so, so, so poorly. I think they call it picking up pennies in front of the steamroller. I'm not a trader, just a buy and hold investor and I'm glad I don't own Canadian O&G.
Long term I would agree they have performed poorly. But in the past 12 months they have greatly outperformed the broader market. XEG is up 90% year to date, almost doubled.
https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/ ... -index-etf
Canadian Energy has gone a long way towards helping the TSX increase in 2021.

They are a cyclical investment and timing is key.
Last edited by Kurtz7834 on Nov 26th, 2021 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Deal Addict
Apr 27, 2015
3051 posts
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Mississauga
Blubbs wrote: The growth rate is what matters most. They found it early which is good for us. If it's not too late.

IMHO, it's a number of deaths "what matters most"... if today we have 1 case and tomorrow 3, the growth rate is 300% :)
"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others" George Orwell
Deal Expert
Oct 27, 2003
18444 posts
9757 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
gibor365365 wrote: IMHO, it's a number of deaths "what matters most"... if today we have 1 case and tomorrow 3, the growth rate is 300% :)
This is actually a good point, percentage increases are misleading and often meaningless when you are dealing with small numbers to begin with. The media ignores this fact far too often.

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