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Locked: What did you buy? What might you buy??

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  • Nov 16th, 2022 11:49 am
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Dec 12, 2009
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craftsman wrote: From last week's numbers, the retail market seems to be cut into 2 pieces - the lower end (the Walmarts and Targets) and the upper end. We should be able to see if that is true when Norstrom and Macy's reports in comparison to Dollar Tree.
If there is a recession coming, you would think Walmart and Target are potentially defensive. With raging inflation, these two probably have less pricing power relative to the upscale stores.
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will888 wrote: If there is a recession coming, you would think Walmart and Target are potentially defensive. With raging inflation, these two probably have less pricing power relative to the upscale stores.
WMT identified "it's consumer" were leaving durable goods on the floor due to elevated prices. Consumers were going "down market' on food brands in their grocery aisle. The only staple aspect at WMT is grocery... Everything else to the lower income demographic is discretionary. Higher end retailers (multi-durable) "can" do better as clientele will dictate acceptable selling prices providing the shelves are stocked.

The common thread with all Consumer Discretionary is necessary healthy supply chains. Even if higher durable selling prices can be achieved, supply chains have to be normalized in those categories for sales to be. That said, Gross Sales Margins are going to suffer and (even if) recessions take several months for lower costs to come thru channels.
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Sep 28, 2011
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craftsman wrote: So... they are saying that in a little over ONE month, they have to re-issue guidance in so far as they got it soooo wrong that they had to issue new guidance? Either the world is imploding (which by all accounts it's not), or the management should be fired. I'm thinking the latter.
I agree. Something stinks. SNAP's April 21 announcement on Q1 was far from rosy:

  • Net loss was $360 million, compared to $287 million in the prior year.
  • Operating cash flow was $127 million, compared to $137 million in the prior year.
  • Free Cash Flow was $106 million, compared to $126 million in the prior year.
SNAP today: "Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated."
This is a giant steaming pile of cow manure. The macro picture today is just as uncertain as it was in April. There is more talk of a recession versus April. But, SNAP would have to be complete idiots to have not known in April that there is a serious risk of a recession in the future with 8% inflation and the Fed raising rates. That's not new information or an astounding revelation of any kind.
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Jul 12, 2008
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adamtheman wrote: Interesting after hours...

Snapchat -30%
Facebook -8%
Google -4%
Twitter -4%.
Amazon -4%
Shopify - 4%
Pinterest -12% as well
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Jan 27, 2006
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will888 wrote: If there is a recession coming, you would think Walmart and Target are potentially defensive. With raging inflation, these two probably have less pricing power relative to the upscale stores.
That's exactly why they went down so much!
Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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Tags: AAPL, LULU, NIKE, PYPL, SNAP

My very first post on this survey was wrt FB Chart With Downwards Trend, where a family discussion over dinner said teens did not even have FB accts anymore. Nailed it. Next was ATZ Chart With Upwards Trend, then SNAP Chart With Upwards Trend. Just 6 months later this survey talks about SNAP Chart With Downwards Trend again. Trends change fast.

This survey has been an excellent reflection IMO of teen usage. And it is highly correlated with my informal personal household survey. AAPL, my next PC will not be an x86 and I posted about the iMessage blue bubble vs a green bubble (eww Jan 8th, 2022 9:24 am), LULU, NIKE has been #1 for a long time, NFLX has regained ground from YouTube and just in the Oct'21 report, SNAP was #1.

Ongoing teen survey updates: Feb 4th, 2022 5:12 pm #54137

"Snapchat is the favorite social media platform (35% share) followed by TikTok (30%) & Instagram (22%, -300 bps Y/Y)"

SPRING 2022 SURVEY
Taking Stock With Teens®
Piper Sandler completes 43rd semi-annual Generation Z survey of 7,100 U.S. teens
https://www.pipersandler.com/1col.aspx?id=6216

I suggest you save the survey results for future reference. Against forum rules to post full research.

Some highlights;

  • For payment apps, Apple Pay ranked first, partly due to 87% of teens in the survey saying they have an iPhone
  • PYPL’s Venmo ranked No. 2 (with the PayPal app No. 4) behind Apple Pay among payment apps used in the last month while SQ’s Cash App ranked No. 3
  • Nike is the No. 1 apparel brand for teens & LULU gains 300 bps Y/Y; Nike is the No. 1 footwear brand—up 400 bps Y/Y
  • 87% of teens own an iPhone and 87% expect an iPhone to be their next phone; 72% of teens already have AirPods
  • Teens spend 30% of their daily video consumption on Netflix and YouTube (both 30%); HBO Max gained share
  • TikTok is the favorite social media platform (33% share) surpassing Snapchat for the first time (31%); Instagram was again third (22%)

<ed: 100 bps = 1%>
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MrMom wrote: Tags: AAPL, LULU, NIKE, PYPL, SNAP

My very first post on this survey was wrt FB Chart With Downwards Trend, where a family discussion over dinner said teens did not even have FB accts anymore. Nailed it. Next was ATZ Chart With Upwards Trend, then SNAP Chart With Upwards Trend. Just 6 months later this survey talks about SNAP Chart With Downwards Trend again. Trends change fast.

This survey has been an excellent reflection IMO of teen usage. And it is highly correlated with my informal personal household survey. AAPL, my next PC will not be an x86 and I posted about the iMessage blue bubble vs a green bubble (eww Jan 8th, 2022 9:24 am), LULU, NIKE has been #1 for a long time, NFLX has regained ground from YouTube and just in the Oct'21 report, SNAP was #1.

Ongoing teen survey updates: Feb 4th, 2022 5:12 pm #54137

"Snapchat is the favorite social media platform (35% share) followed by TikTok (30%) & Instagram (22%, -300 bps Y/Y)"

SPRING 2022 SURVEY
Taking Stock With Teens®
Piper Sandler completes 43rd semi-annual Generation Z survey of 7,100 U.S. teens
https://www.pipersandler.com/1col.aspx?id=6216

I suggest you save the survey results for future reference. Against forum rules to post full research.

Some highlights;

  • For payment apps, Apple Pay ranked first, partly due to 87% of teens in the survey saying they have an iPhone
  • PYPL’s Venmo ranked No. 2 (with the PayPal app No. 4) behind Apple Pay among payment apps used in the last month while SQ’s Cash App ranked No. 3
  • Nike is the No. 1 apparel brand for teens & LULU gains 300 bps Y/Y; Nike is the No. 1 footwear brand—up 400 bps Y/Y
  • 87% of teens own an iPhone and 87% expect an iPhone to be their next phone; 72% of teens already have AirPods
  • Teens spend 30% of their daily video consumption on Netflix and YouTube (both 30%); HBO Max gained share
  • TikTok is the favorite social media platform (33% share) surpassing Snapchat for the first time (31%); Instagram was again third (22%)

<ed: 100 bps = 1%>
Interesting sharing, thanks MrMom
Although, many trends don't translate into stock prices :P
Apple, Nike, FB, Crocs, and so on ... nothing really "held" in 2022

I must be old, only use FB/Twitter and no Instagram/Snapshot/Tiktok
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Deal Guru
Aug 17, 2008
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jerryhung wrote: Interesting sharing, thanks MrMom
Although, many trends don't translate into stock prices :P
Apple, Nike, FB, Crocs, and so on ... nothing really "held" in 2022

I must be old, only use FB/Twitter and no Instagram/Snapshot/Tiktok
LOL, the opposite of you, but one of my least tech savvy friends gets wound up when I point out how FB is for "old people" and only exists to steal your data. Engagement is higher as the age bracket increases.

<ed: see my Oct 25 post>

Looking only at 2022 maybe too short, but the survey has been very accurate if you don't only have the long risk asset mentality, i.e. FB and SNAP. Click on my links and go back to previous posts, to see that the survey and trend are correct, but supply shortages are the only reason APPL isn't killing it.
Last edited by MrMom on May 24th, 2022 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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...
dam.. should have bought more OXY...
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DealRNothing wrote: Clothiers seem to be doing "better" (material input costs are typically easier to pass thru due to actual materials involved)... As for hard consumer goods, I expect results and commentary will be similar. Supply chain disruptions have led to lower top lines by volumes sold and flatter demand on upper-mid products due to higher selling prices, higher COGS has led to lower margins and higher wage pressures.

Walmart, Target, and COST SP's got ground up pretty well last week. I haven't done Quant work on Target but my internals suggests $106.50 on WMT and $386.64 on COST before they would make my watch lists. WMT in particular had been trading significantly above multi-year average fundamentals.
Looks like ANF wants to prove this wrong...
ANF earnings release_Q1
Down -25% at this posting time but eliminating Guidance is a "problem".
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Feb 4, 2015
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Canada, Eh!!
Very few in our circle of friends and family use SNAP. Most in the group are 13-45.

So a 22B company causes GOOGL to lose much more than that??

Mkt seems to think all companies are the same!!
2022/3: BOC raised 10 times and MCAP raised its prime next day.
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Nov 24, 2016
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Bought some QSR.

Really controlling myself not to buy HYLD at 12% yield.

Trying to stay away from covered call ETFs. But man.
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Jul 7, 2020
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Closely watching HQU and TQQQ. Is a good time to buy?
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MashGhasem wrote: Bought some QSR.

Really controlling myself not to buy HYLD at 12% yield.

Trying to stay away from covered call ETFs. But man.
just wondering, are those covered called etfs like HYLD considered as eligible tax credit dividend payers?
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Feb 26, 2013
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MashGhasem wrote: Bought some QSR.

Really controlling myself not to buy HYLD at 12% yield.

Trying to stay away from covered call ETFs. But man.
I have a buy set for ZWK @ $25.5

I don't love the mix but a lot of the US banks are back to 2020 prices and I'm feeling comfortable with it.
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Eyeing on GOOGLE and 3M. Your thoughts?
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-=phelan=- wrote: Anyone have a position in HIVE - X ? My watchlist just showed it shot up 300% in a day? Any news?
1:5 reverse split
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What a mess, all thanks to Snap -41%

QQQ -3%
SPY -2%
SHOP/GOOG/FB -7~-9%

PINS/TTD and so on -20%
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Nov 24, 2016
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dpwr wrote: just wondering, are those covered called etfs like HYLD considered as eligible tax credit dividend payers?
HYLD shouldn't be. It's a Canadian ETF of other American covered call ETFs.

HDIV may have some eligible dividend portion. Not sure.

****. I can't decide with HYLD. The research they put out on their site shows that because of the 25 percent leverage, they mitigate the vol decay. HYLD seems to be tracking the spy nicely.

And it yields 12 percent. .

I can for example buy BNS at 5 percent and by year 10 hope it's yielding 7 on cost. By then however there is capital appreciation.

This thing on the other hand, if it doesn't dissolve, will have been yielding 12 all along and the distributions would have been reinvested.

I can't decide.

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