Investing

What did you buy? What might you buy??

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Member
Jun 28, 2007
300 posts
10 upvotes
Surrey, BC
bgallagher wrote: Nice, but...
Not sure why you keep posting this all over this forum, investing in US stock is as easy as 1-2-3

1- Open a USD trading account
2- Convert your CAD money to USD into that new account (I recommend XETRADE.com)
3- TRADE USD
(4)- stop posting this kind of comments here :cheesygri
Deal Addict
Dec 11, 2007
1839 posts
400 upvotes
Markham
earlier this year i bought a bunch of stuff beaten down due to fiscal cliff / obamacare, (GD, UNH) or kept down due to negative news (BA)
lately i've been adding to utilities (SO), REITs (HCP), MLPs c-corp GPs (KMI) and canadian telcos (RCI, Telus) & banks (BNS)

i also have added to existing consumer staples names here n there, like JNJ, KO, MCD.

for world class consumer products businesses with strong brands, i regularly add to these as long as they're under 20x normalized PE. they are core positions that i rarely, if ever, sell.

for other things, i try to hunt for value. i prefer companies that have more consistent, predictable earnings, with moderate or low debt levels. i look at 10-15 year history of revenues, operating earnings, normalized EPS or FFO, free cash flow, dividend paid, dividend payout ratio. anything around 15x PE or 15x FFO is acceptable, and anything lower makes me giddy.

once i make a decision to invest, i put my technical hat on, and look to buy at a good technical level. i dont nit pick the technicals, as long as the chart doesnt look god awful, then its ok.
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Jun 19, 2009
5987 posts
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Scarborough
kilimats wrote: How i picture SPWR this evening :(

I lost all my trust in the market after this unjustified drop :(

[IMG]http://s3.amazonaws.com/rapgenius/filep ... ahison.jpg[/IMG]
Sounds like another textbook example of an investor thinking they can beat the market but then get burned in the long run (or in this case, their 2nd trade ;) )

Don't be discouraged. Just learn that it's almost impossible to beat the market in the long run. Best is to cut your losses and invest in Index funds/ETFs :)
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Apr 30, 2012
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Montreal
kilimats wrote: How i picture SPWR this evening :(

I lost all my trust in the market after this unjustified drop :(
You made the right move, but isn't that a strange market behaviour, after such a good quarter by SunPower Corp?

virtuman1980 wrote: Haha...pretty interesting fellow indeed...but it was this persistence/stubbornness of his that got him the positive result in the end.
datako wrote: ... Although, I'm a little surprised you went against what everyone advised ,op. You've got balls and absolutely crazy at the same time to do this.
Newbie
Jul 23, 2013
89 posts
14 upvotes
Victoria
I admit I am surprised with SPWR's big drop too.

However, it had surged by 500% since its breakout... so there's no telling how expensive it still really is. I guess the market will decide.
Member
Jun 28, 2007
300 posts
10 upvotes
Surrey, BC
pbd345 wrote: I admit I am surprised with SPWR's big drop too.

However, it had surged by 500% since its breakout... so there's no telling how expensive it still really is. I guess the market will decide.
Agreed and agreed, i'm just holding my 2000 shares for now due to all the praise/good news following the nonsense drop, it's been valued above 30 by many so i will play my patient card for now and learn my lessons, don't ***** with margin > :(
Deal Expert
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Feb 11, 2009
18064 posts
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Toronto
kilimats wrote: How i picture SPWR this evening :(

I lost all my trust in the market after this unjustified drop :(
As much as I feel sorry for your loss, what you did was extremely Stupid! I know someone who lost their life fortune doing what you did, and you simply gambled your money.

Going all in for an earnings report is like betting all on black at a Roulette table. I truly hope you learned your lesson from this and didn't get burned too badly in terms of your overall equity.
SkimGuy wrote: Sounds like another textbook example of an investor thinking they can beat the market but then get burned in the long run (or in this case, their 2nd trade ;) )

Don't be discouraged. Just learn that it's almost impossible to beat the market in the long run. Best is to cut your losses and invest in Index funds/ETFs :)
That is terrible advice, at least from my stand point. You can definitely always beat the market, and Funds/ETF's are a terrible method of investing, unless you have absolutely no idea what you are doing.

When you invest in funds, you're paying someone to do your work, that payment isn't cheap.
Real Estate Agent, MAcc, CPA, CA
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Feb 20, 2011
460 posts
91 upvotes
deal_with_singh wrote: That is terrible advice, at least from my stand point. You can definitely always beat the market, and Funds/ETF's are a terrible method of investing, unless you have absolutely no idea what you are doing.

When you invest in funds, you're paying someone to do your work, that payment isn't cheap.
And let me guess, you are one of those people who definitely always beat the market. As the poster above just found out, investing is as much luck as it is doing your homework, and while your research might point you towards a "sure thing" that may not be the case at all.

Don't know where you're getting your info from but funds are actually quite cheap. VOO has an MER of 0.05%, so over a 30 year period Vanguard effectively takes about 1.5% of the value of your portfolio, which is a price I am gladly willing to pay to not have to think, worry, research, or agonize over my investments. But then again I have no idea what I'm doing.
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Feb 11, 2009
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red_skittles wrote: And let me guess, you are one of those people who definitely always beat the market. As the poster above just found out, investing is as much luck as it is doing your homework, and while your research might point you towards a "sure thing" that may not be the case at all.

Don't know where you're getting your info from but funds are actually quite cheap. VOO has an MER of 0.05%, so over a 30 year period Vanguard effectively takes about 1.5% of the value of your portfolio, which is a price I am gladly willing to pay to not have to think, worry, research, or agonize over my investments. But then again I have no idea what I'm doing.
On average over my years of investing, yes I have beaten the market by quite a margin. However, this is me beating the market by say 50% in Year 1, then lose to the market by say 5%, and up again, etc., so no not beating it EVERY year.

And no investing is not as much luck as doing your homework. It's about how much risk you're willing to take. The more risk the more reward.
Real Estate Agent, MAcc, CPA, CA
Deal Addict
Mar 10, 2010
1788 posts
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red_skittles wrote: And let me guess, you are one of those people who definitely always beat the market. As the poster above just found out, investing is as much luck as it is doing your homework, and while your research might point you towards a "sure thing" that may not be the case at all.

Don't know where you're getting your info from but funds are actually quite cheap. VOO has an MER of 0.05%, so over a 30 year period Vanguard effectively takes about 1.5% of the value of your portfolio, which is a price I am gladly willing to pay to not have to think, worry, research, or agonize over my investments. But then again I have no idea what I'm doing.
Agree completely, the smartest investors in the world can't always beat the market...unless I'm wrong and the smartest investor in the world is on RFD
Deal Addict
Feb 15, 2013
2445 posts
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Beating the market is definitely very difficult. And appears to be increasingly difficult as each year passes. I've been fortunate to beat the market 11 out of the last 15 years by piggybacking on the investments of the wealthy. No more than 6 stocks. Held for years. Some for more than a decade.
Member
Feb 20, 2011
460 posts
91 upvotes
deal_with_singh wrote: On average over my years of investing, yes I have beaten the market by quite a margin. However, this is me beating the market by say 50% in Year 1, then lose to the market by say 5%, and up again, etc., so no not beating it EVERY year.

And no investing is not as much luck as doing your homework. It's about how much risk you're willing to take. The more risk the more reward.
The poster above took a pretty big risk betting $60K on an earnings report. Where is his reward? He did his homework and was willing to take the risk but ended up on the wrong side of the trade. Sounds pretty unlucky to me.
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Jun 19, 2009
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deal_with_singh wrote: As much as I feel sorry for your loss, what you did was extremely Stupid! I know someone who lost their life fortune doing what you did, and you simply gambled your money.

Going all in for an earnings report is like betting all on black at a Roulette table. I truly hope you learned your lesson from this and didn't get burned too badly in terms of your overall equity.



That is terrible advice, at least from my stand point. You can definitely always beat the market, and Funds/ETF's are a terrible method of investing, unless you have absolutely no idea what you are doing.

When you invest in funds, you're paying someone to do your work, that payment isn't cheap.
Sure you can always beat the market, but what are the odds of that? It's like saying you can always win at roulette if you're extremely lucky, but I don't see many people suggesting being a professional roulette player as a good method of making money...
Not going to turn this into a active vs passive investment debate but it's quite clear that it's not as easy as people thing to beat the market. The markets can remain irrational longer than investors can stay solvent :)
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Dec 14, 2010
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Active investing beats passive investing, so it's not a fair comparison.

Talking only about passive investing / index ETF, if you add when the market is undervalued / crashing and it brings down your ACB, don't you beat the market in the long run? That also implies that since the investment is for long term, nothing would be sold during a crash / below ACB, which is very hard to do, since few people have the temperament to add more when the world is pulling out.

Like discussed before, it's not a matter of luck or intelligence picking the best stocks, it's more the ability to stick to a plan and endure the *temporary* loss. It's only a realized loss when you sell it.

Active investing (which I call trading) is a different game and certainly not profitable with index ETFs. Except XIV.

Rod
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Dec 26, 2010
1735 posts
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Calgary
SkimGuy wrote: Sure you can always beat the market, but what are the odds of that? It's like saying you can always win at roulette if you're extremely lucky, but I don't see many people suggesting being a professional roulette player as a good method of making money...
Not going to turn this into a active vs passive investment debate but it's quite clear that it's not as easy as people thing to beat the market. The markets can remain irrational longer than investors can stay solvent :)
The problem is with the concept of "beating the market". Everyone assumes their investing style can just be compared to the TSX or S&P500, and they can say , "oh look mom, I beat the market." There's no point in comparing yourself to an index if you're not investing comparably. If you go after penny stocks, well, the TSX isn't a comparable index. And I hope to hell you're making more than the TSX investing in penny stocks because for the amount of risk you're taking on, you should be making a premium on the risk. But that doesn't mean you truly "beat the market". If we could come up with a comparable index, sometimes impossible, we could better assess the claim.

The other argument I'll make is that people who tend to be more active (in and out of stocks) have a much harder time tracking true return and honestly I feel many people struggle with doing it properly. One thing is having $200k in the market place ever single hour of the year. Another thing is having $200k invested partially at a time, some in cash, some going in, some going out. Cash is a zero percent return for every day you have it sitting like that.
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Mar 10, 2010
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rodbarc wrote: Active investing beats passive investing, so it's not a fair comparison.

Talking only about passive investing / index ETF, if you add when the market is undervalued / crashing and it brings down your ACB, don't you beat the market in the long run? That also implies that since the investment is for long term, nothing would be sold during a crash / below ACB, which is very hard to do, since few people have the temperament to add more when the world is pulling out.

Like discussed before, it's not a matter of luck or intelligence picking the best stocks, it's more the ability to stick to a plan and endure the *temporary* loss. It's only a realized loss when you sell it.

Active investing (which I call trading) is a different game and certainly not profitable with index ETFs. Except XIV.

Rod
Find me a study showing Active Investing beats Passive Investing...people always claim "buy low, sell high", but thats not what they actually do. Instead they double down on bad stocks thinking they're buying low, but instead they're just trying to catch a falling knife. It's easy to say leave emotion out of it and have a plan, but most don't do that or the plan goes out the window at a certain point.
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Mar 10, 2010
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For example, of all Active Funds in Canada, only 19% beat the TSX Index in 2012. If you go back to 3 and 5 periods, only 11% and 2.5% beat the index.
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Feb 11, 2009
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Toronto
Vitalogy80 wrote: Agree completely, the smartest investors in the world can't always beat the market...unless I'm wrong and the smartest investor in the world is on RFD
My returns (Approx numbers):
*I started investing in 08.
2008 - 15%
2009 - 120%
2010 - 12%
2011 - 15%
2012 - 5%
2013 - 50% (This amount is after my losses of as much as 75% in my gold sector investments)

So yes 5/6 years I have beaten the market, so yes in the long run I am beating the market.

TSX Average Returns:
2008 - (35.5)%
2009 - 30.7
2010 - 14.7
2011 - (11.1)%
2012 - 4.0%

The numbers from above are from: http://www.forecast-chart.com/historica ... osite.html

So yes, the only year I've lost to the market is 2010 and essentially matched market returns in 2012.
Real Estate Agent, MAcc, CPA, CA
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Feb 15, 2013
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SkimGuy wrote: Sure you can always beat the market, but what are the odds of that? It's like saying you can always win at roulette if you're extremely lucky, but I don't see many people suggesting being a professional roulette player as a good method of making money...
Not going to turn this into a active vs passive investment debate but it's quite clear that it's not as easy as people thing to beat the market. The markets can remain irrational longer than investors can stay solvent :)
+1 Very true!

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