Real Estate

What do you think will be the YOY price change of condo apartments in GTA by the end of 2021?

  • Last Updated:
  • Dec 22nd, 2020 9:41 am

Poll: Price prediction of condos in 2021

  • Total votes: 61. You have voted on this poll.
moon (+30%+)
 
5
8%
+20% to +30%
 
2
3%
+10% to +20%
 
7
11%
+5% to +10%
 
13
21%
flat (-5% to +5%)
 
20
33%
-5% to -10%
 
4
7%
-10% to -20%
 
2
3%
-20% to -30%
 
2
3%
crash (-30%+)
 
6
10%
[OP]
Member
Nov 12, 2019
344 posts
538 upvotes

What do you think will be the YOY price change of condo apartments in GTA by the end of 2021?

Poll question
Last edited by RaC1550 on Dec 21st, 2020 12:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
20 replies
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 5, 2018
2916 posts
5186 upvotes
Toronto
Detached will be up BIG next year. There is no supply and a LOT of demand.
Called the bottom.
Member
Nov 10, 2019
247 posts
174 upvotes
Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.
Sr. Member
Aug 17, 2018
501 posts
938 upvotes
Are we talking January, summer, end of 2021? And price change as opposed to what? Right now, beginning of 2020, beginning of covid? Need to be a bit more precise.
[OP]
Member
Nov 12, 2019
344 posts
538 upvotes
JanZ95915 wrote: Are we talking January, summer, end of 2021? And price change as opposed to what? Right now, beginning of 2020, beginning of covid? Need to be a bit more precise.
Clarified in the title
Member
Jan 13, 2007
495 posts
376 upvotes
Toronto, Ontario
I predict a recovery but who knows what the actual % will be.
Deal Guru
Feb 29, 2008
14170 posts
10490 upvotes
kimchibowl wrote: Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.
Soar? No way.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Nov 5, 2018
2916 posts
5186 upvotes
Toronto
JayLove06 wrote: Soar? No way.
NO ONE is expecting it and the bond market thinks rates will be low for a long time. I even suspect that BoC will cut again as they indicated that they have the ability to.

No inflation: no reason for rates to rise. The economy is in tatters. I don’t see it.
Called the bottom.
Deal Guru
Feb 29, 2008
14170 posts
10490 upvotes
CondoMan98 wrote: NO ONE is expecting it and the bond market thinks rates will be low for a long time. I even suspect that BoC will cut again as they indicated that they have the ability to.

No inflation: no reason for rates to rise. The economy is in tatters. I don’t see it.
He didn’t even say rise, he said soar. Not happening.
Jr. Member
Jul 10, 2020
139 posts
168 upvotes
It seems that ~30% of the population is poor at estimating (the two extreme options here)
This is similar to the jellybean game played in every primary school, some students guess 1, 000 jelly beans others guess 10, when theres really about 500 in there.
This is probably story people who think up and down instead of with numbers, that said the answer probably depends on interest rates, the western governments are currently printing ~100b a month and buying mortgage backed security bonds, if this continues natural market demand for these assets will shrink (as no rational investor will purchase something yielding 0.8% and lock it in for 10 years) and the governments will have to increase the purchase rates.

At this rate our generation is going to be much worse than the boomers.
RFD is hurting my wallet, too many good deals, my Blog
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10127 posts
12534 upvotes
Toronto
LookingForStuffNow wrote: It seems that ~30% of the population is poor at estimating (the two extreme options here)
This is similar to the jellybean game played in every primary school, some students guess 1, 000 jelly beans others guess 10, when theres really about 500 in there.
This is probably story people who think up and down instead of with numbers, that said the answer probably depends on interest rates, the western governments are currently printing ~100b a month and buying mortgage backed security bonds, if this continues natural market demand for these assets will shrink (as no rational investor will purchase something yielding 0.8% and lock it in for 10 years) and the governments will have to increase the purchase rates.

At this rate our generation is going to be much worse than the boomers.
Well at least 2/3 are rational
Deal Addict
Jan 12, 2017
1294 posts
636 upvotes
We should do a poll on that topic. 2/3 being truly rational seems quite high.
mazerbeaner wrote: Well at least 2/3 are rational
Deal Addict
Oct 27, 2012
2240 posts
3545 upvotes
Toronto
I say flat. But that's because I'm chickenshit, I've come to realize over the years that many of my predictions are wrong and to just diversify, manage risk and sit back. I don't win big often, but I haven't lost big yet either.
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jul 19, 2003
8109 posts
742 upvotes
CondoMan98 wrote: Detached will be up BIG next year. There is no supply and a LOT of demand.
what about townhomes though?
hi!
Deal Addict
User avatar
Dec 13, 2016
3704 posts
3198 upvotes
kimchibowl wrote: Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.
This is hilarious
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Sep 8, 2007
9004 posts
10280 upvotes
Way Out of GTA
kimchibowl wrote: Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.
While bond rates often do the opposite of what beginning of the year expectations are, i don’t actually see this happen in 2021.

The amount of debt govts across the world have run up...increases in their borrowing costs will have a crippling effect on servicing the debt going forward. Canada is now is a position of perpetual deficits. So every govt is now going to be focused on whatever it takes to flood the system with liquidity in an attempt to keep rates low. Whatever leader is in power when rates do rise is in for a rough ride when the backdraft of debt servicing hits.

MMT is uncharted territory but I don’t see a good long term outcome to society. My thoughts remain how to be on the right side of it while it’s going on.
Jr. Member
Dec 5, 2020
101 posts
106 upvotes
Rates are staying low (definitely not going higher)

Condos staying flat in 2021 will be a win (its going to remain a WFH environment for another year)

Detached / townhouses will continue to move higher (the laggard buyers are going to FOMO buy)
Deal Addict
Jul 3, 2007
3315 posts
3642 upvotes
Toronto
this is the key right here.... does life become normal again? many are doubting it for 2021....

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