What do you think will be the YOY price change of condo apartments in GTA by the end of 2021?

Detached will be up BIG next year. There is no supply and a LOT of demand.

Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.

everything will moon.

Are we talking January, summer, end of 2021? And price change as opposed to what? Right now, beginning of 2020, beginning of covid? Need to be a bit more precise.

JanZ95915 wrote: ↑ Are we talking January, summer, end of 2021? And price change as opposed to what? Right now, beginning of 2020, beginning of covid? Need to be a bit more precise.

Clarified in the title

I predict a recovery but who knows what the actual % will be.

kimchibowl wrote: ↑ Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.

Soar? No way.

JayLove06 wrote: ↑ Soar? No way.

NO ONE is expecting it and the bond market thinks rates will be low for a long time. I even suspect that BoC will cut again as they indicated that they have the ability to.

No inflation: no reason for rates to rise. The economy is in tatters. I don’t see it.

CondoMan98 wrote: ↑ NO ONE is expecting it and the bond market thinks rates will be low for a long time. I even suspect that BoC will cut again as they indicated that they have the ability to.

No inflation: no reason for rates to rise. The economy is in tatters. I don’t see it.

He didn’t even say rise, he said soar. Not happening.

It seems that ~30% of the population is poor at estimating (the two extreme options here)
This is similar to the jellybean game played in every primary school, some students guess 1, 000 jelly beans others guess 10, when theres really about 500 in there.
This is probably story people who think up and down instead of with numbers, that said the answer probably depends on interest rates, the western governments are currently printing ~100b a month and buying mortgage backed security bonds, if this continues natural market demand for these assets will shrink (as no rational investor will purchase something yielding 0.8% and lock it in for 10 years) and the governments will have to increase the purchase rates.

At this rate our generation is going to be much worse than the boomers.

LookingForStuffNow wrote: ↑It seems that ~30% of the population is poor at estimating (the two extreme options here)
This is similar to the jellybean game played in every primary school, some students guess 1, 000 jelly beans others guess 10, when theres really about 500 in there.
This is probably story people who think up and down instead of with numbers, that said the answer probably depends on interest rates, the western governments are currently printing ~100b a month and buying mortgage backed security bonds, if this continues natural market demand for these assets will shrink (as no rational investor will purchase something yielding 0.8% and lock it in for 10 years) and the governments will have to increase the purchase rates.

At this rate our generation is going to be much worse than the boomers.

Well at least 2/3 are rational

We should do a poll on that topic. 2/3 being truly rational seems quite high.

sircheersa wrote: ↑ Well at least 2/3 are rational

I say flat. But that's because I'm chickenshit, I've come to realize over the years that many of my predictions are wrong and to just diversify, manage risk and sit back. I don't win big often, but I haven't lost big yet either.

CondoMan98 wrote: ↑ Detached will be up BIG next year. There is no supply and a LOT of demand.

what about townhomes though?

kimchibowl wrote: ↑ Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.

This is hilarious

kimchibowl wrote: ↑ Expect mid 2021 for interest rates to soar back up. This is what everyone's already expecting, which means house prices could take a dip.

While bond rates often do the opposite of what beginning of the year expectations are, i don’t actually see this happen in 2021.

The amount of debt govts across the world have run up...increases in their borrowing costs will have a crippling effect on servicing the debt going forward. Canada is now is a position of perpetual deficits. So every govt is now going to be focused on whatever it takes to flood the system with liquidity in an attempt to keep rates low. Whatever leader is in power when rates do rise is in for a rough ride when the backdraft of debt servicing hits.

MMT is uncharted territory but I don’t see a good long term outcome to society. My thoughts remain how to be on the right side of it while it’s going on.

Rates are staying low (definitely not going higher)

Condos staying flat in 2021 will be a win (its going to remain a WFH environment for another year)

Detached / townhouses will continue to move higher (the laggard buyers are going to FOMO buy)

this is the key right here.... does life become normal again? many are doubting it for 2021....