Real Estate

What's your outlook for the second half of 2021?

  • Last Updated:
  • Apr 27th, 2021 5:10 pm
[OP]
Banned
Apr 23, 2021
1 posts

What's your outlook for the second half of 2021?

Let's hear everyones opinions of the real estate market for second half of 2021.
26 replies
Deal Addict
User avatar
Mar 30, 2010
3328 posts
1269 upvotes
Greater Toronto Area
You tell me.

Rates are still low at least for the rest of this year.

The economy continues to recover and white collar workers are still largely unaffected.

Consumer confidence still high despite us being in the middle of a third wave.

The BAI (bear anger index) is at an all time high.

The government hasn't really done anything so far that might cause a downturn in prices.

Prices still continue to rise in other parts of the world.
<removed>
Deal Fanatic
Mar 27, 2004
5696 posts
3577 upvotes
Toronto
CondoRise wrote: Let's hear everyones opinions of the real estate market for second half of 2021.
to the moon
Full-time Realtor
Member
Dec 23, 2012
445 posts
455 upvotes
RICHMOND HILL
I think they'll be fairly flat after the huge increase. spring is usually when prices go up the most.
Deal Addict
Jan 15, 2010
1215 posts
1441 upvotes
Toronto
Flat, maybe slight dip for both freeholds and condos.
Sr. Member
Dec 5, 2009
676 posts
667 upvotes
Up. Not up like the last few months, but up nonetheless.
Deal Addict
Mar 2, 2017
1899 posts
3410 upvotes
Toronto/Markham
Depends on property type, on one hand some stuff is already flattening out, on the other certain properties are still ripping. Averaged out we are still probably going to see increases.
Realtor, Investor, CPA
Member
Sep 25, 2009
430 posts
335 upvotes
Year over year, you will see nice increases. Month over month should stabilize, but prices will continue to trickle up. There is just nothing solving the supply side for towns/semi/detach. Everything is costing more.
Member
Dec 22, 2004
417 posts
554 upvotes
Toronto
Up. I can see huge immigration from India after the crap show that is happening over there. Not that Canada is going that great with Turdeau government.
Deal Fanatic
Mar 27, 2004
5696 posts
3577 upvotes
Toronto
waiting for the bears to tell us market going to crash.
Full-time Realtor
Deal Fanatic
User avatar
Jan 6, 2002
5985 posts
6203 upvotes
Toronto
CondoRise wrote: Let's hear everyones opinions of the real estate market for second half of 2021.
Elon Musk discovers a second moon of Earth, and we go to THAT moon in addition to the first one.
As someone long prepared for the occasion, in full command of every plan you wrecked---
Do not choose a coward's explanation, that hides behind the cause and the effect...
Sr. Member
Nov 25, 2008
729 posts
42 upvotes
edmonton
Downtown toronto condo selling price should go up.
But reNt price is still a big question mark.
Unsure international students will come back by Sept.
Newbie
Mar 22, 2007
95 posts
70 upvotes
Westmount
I think flat with a slight chance for down as rates climb a bit. The BOC mentioned that prices are driven by fundamental demand changes. This includes things like working from home and desire for larger properties. Since these were triggered by COVID, as the economy heals and companies ask for a more normalized working schedule demand may wane for SFH. Condos and high rise will increase dramatically though.

I think houses further afield from the traditional GTA may have more price decreases than those closer
Jr. Member
Dec 2, 2007
140 posts
71 upvotes
Toronto
flat for the remaining of the year, but will continue to edge higher for detached townhouse in traditional GTA 905 area.
Newbie
Mar 22, 2007
95 posts
70 upvotes
Westmount
Another thing i've noticed is that due to the current lockdown measures, home renovations have also been put on hold. Perhaps this "pause" is due primarily to resale homes waiting for their renovations to be completed in order to maximize resale value.
Jr. Member
Mar 3, 2021
191 posts
127 upvotes
Downtown rent won't recover (e.g. 1b1b going back to 2K and 2b2b1p going back to 3K) until late 2022. Back to office won't fully commence until May 2022 if everyone who wants to is vaccinated by end of year.

Price though will go up moderately as more people pick them up as end users instead. 1b1b might reach 700K and 2b2b 1M for the new buildings.
Deal Guru
Feb 22, 2011
10545 posts
13114 upvotes
Toronto
Core up everything else flat/down a bit. With the exception of cheap options like condos under $500k those probably still do really well as people still looking for cheap options.
Newbie
Feb 26, 2021
8 posts
7 upvotes
Surprised by the # of responses suggesting that prices will continue to go up (month over month of course). Looks like the "real estate truly never goes down" has fully set in.

It obviously depends on the type of property and market, so I will focus on detached here in lower mainland BC. I am willing to bet that prices give back some and (this is going to sound crazy) perhaps even all of the LTM gains in the NTM. Why?

- On the ground, it appears pretty clear to me that buyer fatigue has started to set in and seller exuberance is at a high. The pace of new listings relative to sales, thus active inventory, has quickly turned starting in April. Some of the demand tailwinds as a result of covid should dissipate, such as the reversal in higher space premium attributed to detached housing and a normalization of the household income savings rate (as discretionary spend increases), and some of the listings supply constraints (health and economic uncertainty) are going away. Of course, the biggest driver of new and re-listings is the new price point -- the best cure for high prices is high prices.

- With the 5-yr touching 30-40 bps during 2020, I believe we saw the extent of demand stimulus from low financing costs in the last few months. Rates have already recovered quite a bit, and I believe that they will continue to rise as we are finally seeing broad-based inflation on the horizon. I think the 5-yr not only returns to the 130-140 bps pre-pandemic, but rises past it within NTM. The longer-term rates are already there. The central bank does NOT need to tighten much for this to happen -- the curve will simply steepen if they don't.

- Immigration and housing supply dynamics don't move markets in the time frame we are talking. I think anyone pointing to a supply problem is making an incorrect attribution, at least in the short term. This is all a buyer capacity/FOMO vs willingness to cash out/downsize issue.

- Clearly, Covid-related lost wages were not an issue LTM, so I don't see why rebounding employment is going to be much of a boost to demand.

Not predicting a market crash here, but a correction makes sense to me on the balance of probabilities.
Jr. Member
Jun 28, 2009
165 posts
60 upvotes
Flat for SFH due to increasing rates offset by supply not increasing (as there was minimal speculator activity in most regions)

Condos will increase and recover as we resume back to normal.

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